For the 52 champions that qualified for the 2011-2012 Champions League including its qualifying rounds, I calculated each club's points per game and goal differential per game including games at the end of the season where the clubs were split into groups in countries such as Scotland. I then calculated a regression equation for expected points per game based on goal differential per game. The correlation between points per game and goal differential per game was 0.7368 and the regression line was Points per game = 0.3120*goal differential per game + 1.8220. I then calculated how each club's actual points per game compared to the club's expected points per game. I'll post more later but for now I will say that the most extreme residuals at the ends were for Porto of Portugal with 0.39 more points per game than expected and FC Santa Coloma of Andorra with 0.41 fewer points per game than expected.
Here are the ten champions with the highest value of points per game - expected points per game based on goal differential per game: 1. Porto (Portugal): 0.39 2. Litex Lovech (Bulgaria): 0.23 3. Shakhtar Donetsk (Ukraine): 0.19 4. Copenhagen (Denmark): 0.18 5. Dinamo Zagreb (Croatia): 0.16 6. Maccabi Haifa (Israel): 0.152 7. Partizan Belgrade (Serbia): 0.150 8. Rangers (Scotland): 0.141 9. Dacia Chisinau (Moldova): 0.137 10. Fenerbahce (Turkey): 0.13 (they weren't allowed in the Champions League) Here are the ten champions with the lowest value of points per game - expected points per game based on goal differential per game: 1. FC Santa Coloma (Andorra) -0.41 2. Sturm Graz (Austria): -0.27 3. F91 Dudelange (Luxembourg): -0.19 4. Breidablik (Iceland): -.0162 5. Shamrock Rovers (Ireland): -0.160 6. Slovan Bratislava (Slovakia): -0.15 7. Zestafonia (Georgia): -0.115 8. Wisla Krakow (Poland): -0.111 9. HJK Helsinki (Finland): -0.110 10. Videoton (Hungary): 0.10 If you post or private message me your e-mail address I will e-mail you my spreadsheet.
