Only NY Cosmos and Orlando City should make sense as the 20th team

Discussion in 'MLS: Expansion' started by vettefredje redded, Jan 7, 2012.

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  1. Unak78

    Unak78 BigSoccer Supporter

    Dec 17, 2007
    PSG & Enyimba FC
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Nigeria
    There's always the possibility that Beckham may buy into an existing team as ODLH did with the league supplementing the purchase. DC could look to sell if they cannot find a stadium deal and HSG will likely be pushed into selling either FCD or Columbus.

    Going back to Carolina, that is a group that is definitely ready for MLS but I think that their biggest problem may be the wealth of Traffic Sports. Reading about them they don't seem to, by themselves, have the net worth that MLS wants in it's ownership groups. Perhaps they're simply waiting for additional investors before they become a serious concern. But they definitely know how to run a soccer club.

    We'll see, it may turn out to be 22, however I feel that it will be less likely if it takes til 2014 for #20 to happen bc any southeastern expansion will have to come as a pair and I definitely think that they want to go into the final year on their TV contracts with a set number of teams and improving older markets. I also think that if they were planning to go to 22, then they would simply say so and there wouldn't be such a focus on NY2 right now. They wouldn't be tempering enthusiasm in other markets. I don't think that DG was being coy when they played with 18, there was simply alot more uncertainty about that number than this one. Not to say that there is no uncertainty, but less so than with 18.

    And MLS is currently in bed with the two networks, one of whom will likely be their sole partner after 2015. If either one of those networks felt that the Southeastern marketzone needed to be represented they would have made it known to MLS by now and we would be looking at a more open bidding process with NY2 as a side project for #22. Once again, the sense of urgency surrounding NY2 does it for me. I see this as the NHL model beginning to form. NHL did not expand to the south until the latter stages of thier development, when they were already an established namebrand sport. NHL delved far deeper into the mainstream zietgeist than MLS currently is before they ever made their move into the southern or western markets. Even an MLS with a full slate of Southeastern teams would not be as strong as they were even then because all of their core markets were incredibly solid. Another point, NHL's initial foray outside of their core traditional markets came by way of a move, not expansion. Something to think about.
     
  2. SYoshonis

    SYoshonis Member+

    Jun 8, 2000
    Lafayette, Louisiana
    Club:
    Michigan Bucks
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Umm...that's not a fact. If you're (note the correct spelling) going to jump on someone for "ignoring facts," it would behoove you to understand what the word "fact" means.

    Also, understanding the distinction between the hypothetical NYC expansion and the even more hypothetical Cosmos might help you make discrediting New York slightly more difficult.

    Not that he has ever said that, or anything. He's mentioned, in answering questions about the prospects of further expansion, that he doesn't foresee much more past 20 in the short term, but that isn't the same thing as unilaterally declaring a "moratorium," now is it?

    Another poster having trouble with the word "facts." Apparently, you haven't read "everything that MLS has said to prospective markets," if you think that's what it says.
     
  3. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Someone's going to have to explain to me how Orlando - in a huge football stadium, with the increased expenses of MLS - is going to be "profitable almost right away" when there are MLS teams that have been in their own stadiums, in large markets, for five years or more that have yet to achieve profitability.

    I was impressed with what Orlando's done this year, but come on.

    Raise your hand if you remember all these conversations from 1999 with Rochester in place of Orlando. "Why even have a league if you're not going to let Rochester in?" "Rochester has a proven fanbase, going to MLS they'll go from 10,000 a game to 19,000 a game." "MLS needs Rochester more than Rochester needs MLS."

    It's the same thing. Now Orlando is the flavor of the week, the new hot chick. They may very well get a team, either through expansion or through buying DCU or whatever.

    But there is no "instant profitability app" in this scenario. It's ludicrous to say that, based on one third division season in which they averaged 5,415 fans per game - read that again....they got 11 thousand for the championship game, which was fantastic, but they averaged less than half of what Rochester was doing in 2000, using a second division budget - that they'd be "instantly profitable" in Major League Soccer when no Major League Soccer team has ever been "instantly profitable" except possibly Seattle.
     
  4. QueensNick

    QueensNick Member

    Jul 19, 2007
    New York City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Yea - i know what a fact is but i was making the point that PK being gone does not kill the Cosmos because MLS wanted him out. Which seems to be the case. Perhaps my question mark was the confusing thing - i can see the point.

    I am clear of one thing though- your much nicer in person than on the boards. Very common i guess.


    As for Orlando - isnt part of the expansion a remodel of the stadium?
     
  5. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Or, at least as likely, PK's endgame was always to cash out. I don't know which is true, and neither do you.

    But MLS can certainly have a New York franchise without Paul Kemsley and they didn't have to "force" him out of the Cosmos' organization to do that. There are no facts in evidence that it's Cosmos or bust when it comes to MLS' twentieth team or its next New York team. Only Cosmos fans tend to read every single thing that way as if it's a fait accompli.

    City facility. Enormously expensive to "remodel." They could build their own, which would be great, but would also be really expensive. I'm not sure the city or the state is going to kick in, which brings you to the wonderful world of debt service.

    Point being: there are MLS franchises right now, at this very moment, in larger TV markets than Orlando, with larger established fan bases, in soccer-specific stadiums, who are not turning a profit. The point is not whether or not Orlando "works" for MLS, because eight years ago today you'd have said "Salt Lake City? Are you freaking kidding me?" It's that anyone who says Orlando's going to be "almost instantly profitable" in MLS based on one year of averaging 5k in the third division with a second-division budget and playing either in a too-large football stadium (be it renovated or not) or their own yard is not thinking clearly.
     
  6. QueensNick

    QueensNick Member

    Jul 19, 2007
    New York City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No - we dont know what drove his decision to relaunch the brand.

    Right, NYC can have a franchise without PK and even without the Cosmos name, but in terms of your argument below, profitability, what do you think is more profitable? New York City FC or whatever or bringing back the Cosmos?

    See, and I get it, you hate the Cosmos fans, but many of us are thinking in the lines of what makes the MLS more valuable. A second team in NYC named XXX could be good but wont stir up the same buzz as the Cosmos would.

    Say what you want about PK but what he did show is that the Cosmos brand still holds a lot of value globally. Even sponsors are asking Garber when the Cosmos are coming back. We don't know which sponsor but Garber said it was a major one.

    All you know of us is a message board which yes, many of the Cosmos fans get defensive on because every thread turns into something completely different. I encourage you to get together with us if you are ever in NY and you might see you can have a normal conversation and we are not a sad lot. Dont let Message boards determine what you think people are.

    Thanks for clearing the stadium part up. I agree with you that instant profitability is tough.

    The challenge now for Garber is that not many places are going to be as successful as Seattle was or Portland etc. A second team in NY, Florida, Detroit - wherever, it might not be as easy as it was in Seattle.
     
  7. Macsen

    Macsen Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 5, 2007
    Orlando
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well nothing's part of the expansion yet, since there is no expansion. We'll know better in late February/early March after the first formal tour from MLS what they expect from the market.

    There is a little chatter about SSS possibilities, though no detail. Currently the base expectation is a remodel of the Citrus Bowl expected to begin in 2014. This includes demolishing and reconstructing the lower bowl. My personal hope is that they maintain the current pitch dimensions. Beyond that, just having a stadium that doesn't look ancient is good enough for me.

    I'm not among those who said an Orlando team in MLS would be "instantly profitable". I just think Orlando would work in MLS, and MLS would work in Orlando. Also, you have to be within the context of the times. Rochester's best years came in the middle of the dot.com boom, when the entire economy was roaring. This is the "new normal". Orlando's numbers still were the best in U.S. minor league soccer, and a good start for a first year regardless.

    I always said the best indication of Orlando's potential is how we do in succeeding years. We'll see what City does in 2012. But if MLS opens the door "early", we're walking in.

    I don't think anybody expected it to be that easy in Seattle. Their D-2 team only drew in the 3k range their last couple years. And it can't all be the departure of the Supersonics, though that has to have some hand in it. I'm sure people will be beating their doors down for the answer.
     
  8. QueensNick

    QueensNick Member

    Jul 19, 2007
    New York City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Weren't there some meetings this past week with the combine? I thought I read it somewhere.
     
  9. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I would imagine it had something to do with "making money." Don't you?

    We can argue until the end of the day the relative profitability of an NYC team called Cosmos or one called Raptors or Empires or whatever. And we have, come to think of it. You people tend to overrate the long-term actual impact the name will have in 2013 or 2020 after everyone's bought their one shirt (which you could buy now). Once people realize "Hey, this isn't the Cosmos. This is a bunch of MLS guys and a couple of Designated Players," the bloom is coming off the rose.

    Plus, you have a bunch of people who can't possibly have any meaningful memories of the original Cosmos because they weren't alive then. Yet they're all convinced a Cosmos MLS team will be exponentially more profitable than any other team, or any other name or any other brand and can cure cancer and herpes, too.

    I just don't believe that after the initial spike (some of which we've seen recently, though even that gets overrated by morons like NYC_COSMOS), you're not going to be able to rely on a 30-year-old brand to make you profitable.

    Buzz for about a year, maybe. Remember the other things that have caused a buzz in MLS?

    Profitability is in all our minds, not just yours. You didn't somehow corner the market in LeagueThink (though, no, let's be honest...you're couching it that way, but there's a percentage of you who just want your childhood back and another percentage of people who just think retro is cool).

    Buzz is great for a while. But you've got to back it up. And the Cosmos brand isn't a magic elixir when administered from March to November every year, over 34+ league matches and everything else. Right now, as a concept more than an actual organization, it's really, really sexy. But there's nothing behind it except Saudi money and the power of nostalgia. There just isn't.

    And I guess they won't invest in American soccer unless there's a team called the Cosmos, right?

    Oy. Tired of this discussion. Steve Ross ain't walking through that door. The 1970s ain't walking through that door. And you don't want Chinaglia walking through that door. Shep Messing told me once, "Just let it be what it was. It was great, but just let it be back there, that's where it belongs."

    I agree. I like nostalgia, too. I like remembering my youth, too. But please stop acting as if an MLS team called the Cosmos is going to be something so magical that it'll solve all our problems.
     
  10. Macsen

    Macsen Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 5, 2007
    Orlando
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's news to me. The first meetings I was expecting since before the MLS Cup were during the Pro Soccer Classic.
     
  11. Unak78

    Unak78 BigSoccer Supporter

    Dec 17, 2007
    PSG & Enyimba FC
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Nigeria
    Another poster who has a problem with reading comprehension.

    “There was a time when [league] expansion was a core, strategic priority. It’s not that now. We’ve got many priorities, but expansion is not one of them.”

    That's Garber stating that the league's priorities have changed in rather plain terms. They are not in an investment mode anymore. This is a very simple concept if you take the time to understand it. I provided the link, all you had to do was read it.

    BTW, since you want to argue semantics, not expanding in the short term IS a moratorium which is by definition a temporary suspension of a particular plan or action. :rolleyes:


    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoE5rHpXSTg"]MLS Coming to Sacramento? - YouTube[/ame]

    He lays it out rather plainly that expansion to cities other than NY is not going to be a priority.
     
  12. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'd take my chances with them if they have a good leadership team over a lot of other people.

    Montreal was better, actually. And Rochester was close behind. But, yes, a fantastic start.

    I think the Sonics thing was largely perpetuated by people who couldn't possibly believe that a soccer team could do what they did right away and were looking for a way to diminish the accomplishment. Just because B follows A doesn't mean A caused B, or even had some hand in it. Unless you believe a good percentage of the scarf-wearing, singing people in Seattle used to do that at Sonics games and make up a good portion of the extra 18,000 people that Seattle draws above the MLS average.
     
  13. Jossed

    Jossed Member+

    Apr 23, 2011
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    The Carolina Railhawks do not have owners. So how on earth can they have MLS aspirations? Or have a group ready for MLS? They are barely existing. They are currently being propped up by Traffic Sports. Traffic didn't want them, but in order to have 8 NASL teams for 2011, Traffic was forced to help out Atlanta and Carolina. One of the major issues for the NASL is finding ownership groups for Atlanta, Minnesota, and Carolina. Given questions about Traffic's financial situation, who knows how long they will continue to prop up these teams and the Strikers?

    So no, don't even bring up the Railhawks and MLS. Not even jokingly.

    On the field former and current Whitecap coach Martin Rennie knew how to run a team. Off the field they were a mess once the Wellmans bolted on them. Early last year they were put on sale on ebay. Yes, ebay! Traffic Sports bailed out the NASL and bought the Railhawks for just 15k.
    http://www.indyweek.com/triangleoff...ling-mascot-name-everything-on-ebay-craiglist

    This club was basically gone and saved at the last minute. So that is why it is crazy to even mention them with MLS. They won't even survive at D2 unless they can find local ownership soon.

    I don't think some fans realize some of the major issues facing D2 and D3 clubs.
     
  14. Macsen

    Macsen Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 5, 2007
    Orlando
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I did say "U.S." :p

    The Sonics thing was actually caused by someone who desparately wanted a basketball team in Oklahoma City, but couldn't bring himself to make that team the Hornets and break the hearts of New Orleans post-Katrina. (Though these days, it looks like they would've been better off, but I digress.) Clay Bennett found an opening and walked right through. And certainly they weren't all waving scarves at Sonics games, but how else do you go from 3,000 to 30,000 in no time flat? I think the Sounders filled a void right after the Sonics' departure.
     
  15. QueensNick

    QueensNick Member

    Jul 19, 2007
    New York City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    First of all - we got a guy who was actually a ball boy for the Cosmos let alone old season ticket holders in our group. But you would know all that JUST FROM A MESSAGE BOARD. In fact, many of our members might be older than you.

    And on those boards we all have said we are aware of the MLS rules and how they will not be the same team as in the past, but clearly your just too hard up on hating us to have read that part too.

    Your an internet tough guy who would never meet with people face to face and talk it out. OHH BIG BAD HUMAN INTERACTION.

    And no - we dont think we corner the market on thinking - we are telling you where we are coming from because you make those lovely little twitter comments hiding behind your screen. Dont turn this into us thinking we think we "are smarter" than everyone else. You called us a sad lot, i tried to explain our way of thinking which we are all aware is not everyone's. You accuse us of thinking the Cosmos is the only thing that works, I was explaining WHY we think its better for the league.

    Cheers Ken - hope you do a broadcast in NYC soon!
     
  16. QueensNick

    QueensNick Member

    Jul 19, 2007
    New York City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I could be wrong - thought i saw it some place but it could have been twitter which is not always reliable - ill take your word for it.
     
  17. Macsen

    Macsen Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 5, 2007
    Orlando
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I have an in with the team. If they had meetings with MLS, I'd know.
     
  18. Unak78

    Unak78 BigSoccer Supporter

    Dec 17, 2007
    PSG & Enyimba FC
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Nigeria
    I think that we all understand that stability issues that have plagued D2 and the USL at D3. We all know about AC St. Louis and the TOA, and the USSF's new regulations for D2 sanctioning only being accomplished on a conditional basis and too late for participation in the US Open cup. Puerto Rico, despite being a well run team, had an ownership that didn't immediately meet USSF specs. There arent' enough American teams proportionately either. The WPS is operating under alot of the same issues which is why I think it would be an almost criminal double standard for the USSF to fold them. Most ppl understand this. It been a pretty big story.

    I'll admit some of the specifics on Carolina in particular were lost on me except that they've always fielded pretty good teams yet I questioned whether their ownership was strong enough for MLS, which based on what you just said, it isn't so I'm not exactly out in left field there. Now whether or not Traffic wanted them or not, they are currently their official owner. But thanks for the insight anyway.
     
  19. SYoshonis

    SYoshonis Member+

    Jun 8, 2000
    Lafayette, Louisiana
    Club:
    Michigan Bucks
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's rich, coming from you.

    I did read it, and it didn't say what you continue to pretend that it did. Nowhere does it say that "Garber....says that they are definitely putting a moratorium on expansion at 20," no matter how much you want to put words into his mouth.

    Sure, if the initiative is MLS's to do the suspending. If Garber says that he doesn't think that there will be any successful expansion bids in the short term, that's not the same thing. Just because you can't comprehend the distinction, doesn't mean that there isn't one.
    And you're claiming that this is "everything that MLS has said to prospective markets"? Seriously?

    And another distinction that you seem to be having trouble grasping is the one between not being a priority and not going to happen. Nowhere has Garber or anyone else said that they would refuse expansion bids, should suitable ones arise. Why is that so difficult for you to get?

    And, given that difficulty, what in the HELL are you doing playing the reading comprehension card? You certainly aren't doing yourself any favors.
     
  20. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, I'll say this....they did improve their fortunes quite a bit after coming back from the eBay thing. Curt Johnson is a professional GM who has more of a clue than most who've tried to do this. I think they're a far better organization than they were 24 months ago. And WakeMed is supposed to be expanded, soon. I think it's going to be exceedingly difficult for someone who's not in the list of Usual Suspects to break into the discussion of a future MLS team. But I would not say the Railhawks are just barely existing. I wouldn't say that at all.
     
  21. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    My bad. You're right.

    "The Sonics thing" was referring to, specifically, was "the notion perpetuated by some media types (and even fans) that the Sounders' early success was an illusion that would not have happened had the Sonics remained in Seattle." That somehow people just naturally gravitated there for something to do, not necessarily because they are soccer fans. I don't believe that's true.

    And I just think you overstate it. Like your feeling that the NBA lockout helped MLS playoff attendance last year. Which means it didn't help in Denver (8,202 average) or Dallas (10,017), where they do have NBA teams, but it didn't help in Seattle (36,021) or Kansas City (19,702) where they don't have NBA teams.

    The Toronto market went from 1,550 a game to 20,130 in no time flat, too, but nobody talks about that. That's not as impressive as Seattle's jump, but Vancouver went from 5,149 a game to 20,406...and they lost their NBA team years ago.

    Look, no one can fully explain what happened in Seattle. It's a total outlier. We've never seen anything like that in this league, and almost never in any soccer league in this country. People are going to be debating what happened in Seattle and trying to replicate it for years and years. They can do the first, but may not hit on an answer, but I'm not liking their chances to replicate it. And I just think the Sonics' departure is more coincidental than causal.
     
  22. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm 46, so good on ya. You can't tell me there isn't a substantial number of people who never saw the Cosmos play.

    Here's the thing about the term "hater" that has come into vogue in recent years: it's largely used by twentysomethings to deflect criticism of their behavior. "I don't have to own up to what I'm doing if I can just criticize you for taking me to task for it by calling you a hater."

    My feelings towards the less rational of the Borough Boys don't even come close to bordering on hate.

    Considering I live in Arizona and you live in New York, that's going to be kind of difficult, isn't it? But find me the person on Bigsoccer who's actually met me with whom I've had a negative interaction. Go ahead. Bring it. I always enjoy talking soccer.

    Where are you right now? I can't see you? See, just like "hating," people now use "hiding behind your screen" to diminish someone's message. Again, I live here, you live there. Where, exactly, are we supposed to interact? Are you @CatInTheHatTrick, is that what this is about? Holy cow.

    And I think you overstate it because you're blinded by the emotion of the ideal of the return of a long-dead brand that once had enormous sway over American soccer. In short, most of you can't look rationally at the situation.

    Well, the schedule will be out in 20 minutes, I don't think FCNY will be on it, I doubt seriously I'll be doing games this year and I don't expect I'll ever get back into MLS, so don't save me a table. But if it comes to pass, I'm all in favor of OMGHUMANINTERACTION.
     
  23. Unak78

    Unak78 BigSoccer Supporter

    Dec 17, 2007
    PSG & Enyimba FC
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Nigeria
    Dude do you have some idiotic idea that MLS is just going to expand continuously for 15 years until they get to 30 teams? Is that your idea? This isn't just me either bc most of the articles that I've read have seemingly agreed that a moratorium was right for the league. So I'm apparently not the only one who's reading the issue that way. But I guess that we're all idiots according to you. My mistake.

    As for me "pretending to read something into Garber's words"; what type of crack are you on? There's no interpretation needed for anyone with a working mind, he said it in plain terms that they are diverting our focus from expansion,... that's about as straight-forward as it gets. You have to "pretend" just to make the case that he isn't focusing on a temporary stoppage to expansion. And in that instance you see Garber basically making a point that there are other interests for the league that don't involve indefinite continued expansion.

    But this is what you do, you don't address a person's points you just sit around endlessly refuting the points in general terms until the other person gets tired of arguing with a person who types alot without actually saying anything. I've been through this with you before, and it gets pretty old quickly arguing with a person who's responses basically boil down to the equivalent of "Nuh uh". Don't be surprised if I don't respond to you again.
     
  24. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  25. Metrogo

    Metrogo Member

    Apr 6, 1999
    Washington Hghts NY
    OK, between this and your "the Borough Boys are sad bunch" twit, I mean tweet, let me respond.

    First. No, Kemsley did not buy the Cosmos for the money. Kemsley is a boom and bust type guy in the real estate business. The time and money he spent on acquiring and maintaining the Cosmos would have been better spent, if money is your consideration, doing deals in NY. And he was in fact involved in deals in NY. He was doing the Cosmos for the same reason many wealthy egomaniacs buy into sports... fun, fame and prestige. Obviously he hoped to make money at the Cosmos, but if you think he did it for the money, you are not acquainted with the concept of opportunity cost.

    Second, I was at the soccer bowl '78, and went to a few Cosmos games over the years. So I know plenty about it. I didn't go more because I couldn't drive and my dad wasn't into it. We have a former Cosmos ball boy in our core group as well.

    Third, since we have more followers and readers than you, we have a sense of what the Cosmos name means in New York. The Cosmos initial announcement caused a lot of buzz and frankly helped us, the Borough Boys, to grow.

    Now, I do agree with you that the Cosmos aren't the be all and end all, and further agree that once people see a sophomore from Central Connecticut state starting at left fullback, some will lose interest. However, that's why it was such a great thing that the Cosmos were making such a serious commitment to the grassroots through Copa and Gottschee. At least a couple of folks at the Cosmos got the idea that there had to be substance in support of the buzz. Believe me, I know all about buzz that doesn't last in MLS, I was a Metrostars fan.

    Kenn, I will also extend an invitation to you. Next time we're in the same city, or you visit new york, talk to us. We'll pay for the drinks. Then, maybe then, you can "tweet" with a little more information. You're a journalist, right?
     

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