Actually Sela might not even be the group. Check out Seamus O brien for World Soccer Group. His name has been popping up a lot. And say when you want, but when Donnie Riddles comes out and starts talking about how the Cosmos brand is growing on him. Thats big. Oh and the reason it is - he admitted it. One of their MAJOR sponsors asked about when the Cosmos are going to be in the league. The sponsors know how big the return of the Cosmos could be. Money talks man - and when the MLS sponsors are asking about the Cosmos, that brand just jumped up to the front of the list IMO. Your trying really hard to discredit New York, we know you dont want it but you are ignoring the facts. 1) Donnie has a hard on for a team east of the rivers 2) MLS hired a team to get a stadium build in NYC 3) Did PK bail or was he forced out because MLS didnt want him running the show? The stadium remains the big issue. There was serious serious talk and traction in Greenpoint on the waterfront but when the Cosmos turned things over, they got rid of Joe Fraga who was the point man for that stadium plan. Not sure what happens to that now. NYC is not a shoe in at all - it can fall apart and the way things have been with NYC expansion, it just might but your really trying to find reasons why its not the top candidate. I agree with the original poster - right now the two major candidates would be NYC and Orlando. PS - Zensum- great meeting ya outside RBA earlier this year. Glad you approached us because it is always nice to put a face with a screen name.
Not sure I would have approached you if I had initially known who you guys were but under the influence of a little bit (or more!) of alcohol and a couple of great hours of New York Red Bulls soccer your faces didn't come into focus until it was too late, lol. Nice meeting you guys too. My biases on this question are well known so everyone should factor that in to their consideration. I still believe however that an essential element in MLS' targeting NY2 for 20 is the dearth of other near term candidates particularly in the South. Orlando not necessarily the ideal Southeast candidate may test that theory if they can get their stadium plan (and sufficient ownership structure?) in place. Of course I also believe that desired cities trump everything and Atlanta/Miami/yes NY2 will dictate when they get in (whenever they're ready) with slot 20 being a false threshold. If any of them (or another desired city) becomes 20 it doesn't affect any of the others though the league will want to stage 21 and beyond in the most sensible way and given that stadiums aren't approved and built overnight that will be the least of the league's worries.
Not saying that Orlando couldn't support MLS. But "the most successful US soccer club not in MLS?" This is a team that has played one year in its current market. They had the best attendance this year, barely--100 or so fans a game more than Rochester. Who, by the way, were having their worst attendance year ever (in the past they've drawn 10,000+ in the various minor leagues). Rochester have also won three league titles and a U.S. Open Cup, by the way. Yes, Orlando is a bigger market than Rochester, although not because of the size of the state. (Lots of people live in Florida, but most of them live a good ways from Orlando). And there are a lot of things that make Orlando a good candidate for an MLS expansion team (winning titles in the minors is not one of them). But try again with the "most successful" stuff after more than one season.
Like I've said before, if not here then elsewhere on BigSoccer. We give them a TV market they don't have. And major-league sports these days is all about TV revenue. Anybody in the SE would have any of the problems you describe. Someone has to break the ice somehow, and Orlando is building the necessary proven fan base, which is an important trump card. That's something Atlanta, Minnesota and Las Vegas don't have. Whoever is first in the SE is going to open the door for the rest. And Orlando would additionally be a keystone to restore Tampa Bay and Fort Lauderdale, giving an intermediary for an important statewide rivalry. Having a second NYC team is not as valuable as some might think, because they already have the TV market. While there are passionate voices for this here, we don't know if that reflects reality. As for 2014, I think having a 20-team league would be an important psychological milestone for the next World Cup. That would put MLS on-par in terms of league size with the Premier League.
This is false unless you only believe football & baseball are the major sports in the US. MLS is a long way from TV revenue being close to the majority of its revenue or even significant. I have no real argument with the rest of what you stated.
I think it might be the best option to relocate Chivas USA to Orlando (and ofcourse name them Orlando City SC) and add the New York Cosmos the same year, as soon as possible (when they have their stadium ready). Hopefully in 2014, but I'm afraid they won't get it done by then. Both clubs have huge potential. I really believe the Cosmos can become one of the most famous sports clubs in the world again.
I've thought of that idea, but that's not happening as long as Guadalajara wants to be in the LA market. Unless they decide they wanna stick it to Pachuca. For a possible move, I'd pay attention to the Earthquakes. Their new stadium is facing NIMBY resistance. If it gets squashed, the Quakes might be vulnerable for a second move. (Or buy them and sell their pre-Dynamo history back to the Dynamo.)
Th resistance to the Earthquake stadium is small and without merit. it will be taken care of swiftly in the appropriate manner.
Their is a snowball's chance in h*ll that they will be relocate Chivas USA outside of So Cal, let alone rebrand them on top of that. With the league coming out and stating that they want a team within the city limits of New York City, they have back themselves into a corner. Add to that the requirement for the Beckham franchise, I just can't see no way that they can put a hold on expansion till they get to 22 teams. Which in my opinion means NY2, Orlando and somewhere else. Which means prehaps Las Vegas, Atlanta, San Diego or even Carolina for the 22nd franchise.
Many people want Chivas to move but they aren't going anywhere. The league has a hard on for the idea of LA and NYC inter city derbies. The CUSA owners have a hard on for the LA metro market and CUSA actually draw ok despite having no identity of their own and being nothing more than the Gal's tenants. If they ever get anywhere with their stadium project, move across the city from the Galaxy and rebrand to something more inclusive they'll do just fine. If Orlando gets any relocating team it'd be DC if their stadium cluster******** doesn't sort itself out and Baltimore isn't up for hosting the team. I don't see that happening though, if anything Orlando will be an expansion.
I don't know if anyone saw in today's news thread, but the d2 San Antonio team is building a stadium that will be ready in 2013. It'll only seat 6000 initially, but they have shown 5 steps of expansion to get it to over 18000 seats. Id say this makes them a serious contender for an expansion spot.
Yes - and the drawings look nice - also hear Detroit is planning some news. Really getting interesting. Scary for us as well!
Everybody seems to assume MLS would have to expand to get Orlando into the league. Remember, at least one and possibly two MLS teams are in play or could reasonably be presumed to be in play. DC United's situation is untenable at RFK. Will Chang will not stay in that situation indefinitely, you'd think. Baltimore has obviously made a pitch for a stadium and to get the team, and if that was anywhere close to realistic, one might think there would be great reasons to move United there rather than somewhere else. But these things don't always move on the best timetables. If Baltimore can't get everything together in a reasonable time frame and if Will Chang wakes up one morning and says, "Enough," if I'm Rawlins and company, I make a bid for DCU and move them to Orlando. If you're MLS, you don't want to lose the capital, obviously, but the precedent is there, thanks to the San Jose/Houston situation. You move DCU to Orlando, but hold the DCU name and tradition for a potential return once they have things sorted out. Orlando gets into the league, the league stops the bleeding in a problem situation (for now) and you get into Florida. Now, obviously, you're swapping a TV market #8 for TV Market #19, but moving DC to Baltimore swaps #8 for #27. And if NYC is #20, you end up getting another team in market #1 (I don't know how much diminishing returns play into that equation eventually balances out as). You can still then get Orlando into the league, Will Chang chalks the whole DC thing up to experience and moves on, you get a 20 team league with New York as #20 and you expand your footprint. The other possibility is, obviously, Columbus. There you'd be moving up 13 TV markets. You'd hate to lose Columbus, which was the first franchise, but this whole thing can be ruthless sometimes.
HSG have no interest in moving Columbus though, it wasn't so long ago that they were talking about the prospects of building the teams 2nd SSS in a more central location and with more of the features that modern MLS SSS have.
Of course not. This is California we're talking about. And I don't see Orlando hosting a team move without an actual SSS. They can get away with a refurbished Citrus Bowl with an expansion team. DC is not moving from one antiquated football stadium to another.
And all you have to do is look at the national tv breakdown to see how much they value anything but the strongest markets. And you get a sense that MLS is trying to downplay This article by Richard Whittall does the best job at laying down the reasons why MLS is eager to put aside expansion for awhile and most of it comes down to building up their weaker markets, creating a sense of recognizeable permanance, TV, TV, and TV. They've gotta get those television up. Hence the new broadcasting strategy. Focusing on key markets. Here's one of the more pointed arguments: So you get the sense that seeing as how MLS is not going out of their way to court anything outside of the NY market that, for the forseeable future, you are basically beating against a lead wall trying to get in. That's why I believe Garber when he says that they are definitely putting a moratorium on expansion at 20. And with 2015 being the date that thier three tv deals are up, the clock is ticking. When ESPN and NBC expire they are going to probably drop one of them and they want to have as many assets as possible to get the best deal. Operating under the definitive assumption that there will be only one expansion team accepted between now and 2015 they will take their chances at splitting a 20 million strong market, creating a local rivalry and being able to double thier NY national broadcasts than taking a market anywhere else which might do well in the stadium but can never be as strong long-term. If MLS was planning on undertaking a southern strategy and adding multiple teams from the south, then it might make sense, but I am pretty much convinced that they are not currently in that mode. DG has said that MLS needs to change their focus, for the time being, from expansion and put thier efforts into other avenues. By putting off NY again they will have to go into a new television deal with an Orlando market that may feature on a national telecast maybe 3 times in their expansion season if they're lucky. I hate to go back to the shift in TV strategy, but you can see that they're downplaying expansion and placing greater emphasis on key markets. Montreal isn't going to be on US television at all this season. That market was more important for playing a key role in getting that Canadian television market sewn up. But there were already two other Canadian markets in the league already. TO alone would not have done this. Just like Orlando alone is not going to deliver them the SE market. So unless you believe that MLS is bluffing and are going to continue expansion to perhaps 24 by 2015 then Orlando simply doesn't hold the same value that NY2 currently does. Look, MLS is trying to get out of being soley focused on expansion and you can hardly blame them. At twenty teams you have a stable league for it's age and enough markets to build from. But they have just undergone a 5 year breakneck rapid expansion phase. At some point you have to figure that that was going to stop. At some point MLS was going to double-dip the NY market and close the books for awhile while working at strengthening other areas. MLS has always talked up the NY2 idea during expansion bidding processes even when there were no serious bids available. They courted the bids themselves instead of the other way around. But now they do not want to go into an expansion moratorium without NY2 so there's a sense of urgency. Alot of ppl may not understand the obsession with NY as a market but there is a reason that NY is doubly represented in every sport in the US. There is a reason there are 3 teams in the NY/NJ market in hockey. There is a reason why the Knicks are so valuable despite having not been very successful in a long time. These are businessmen running MLS and right now they are sending a rather polite but clear message to other expansion bids; we like what you're doing but this is not an open bidding process. Entertaining bids like we've done in the past is no longer a priority for us. We're going to start acting like other N. American leagues now. This is not passion, this is cold hard facts. All you have to do is read everything that MLS has said to prospective markets that have contacted them: "Don't call us, we'll call you." The clearest case would be the Sacremento inquiry where Courtemanche basically tempered the enthusiasm for such a bid. Now if MLS had been in full mode for courting prospective bids such a response is likely to hurt any process to get a stadium plan in place. There I can agree and I think that that's the reason that they've chosen 20 for this moratorium rather than 24 or 18.
One, this entire post sure sounded like passion. Two, they will not turn away an expansion team that has a very good chance of being profitable almost right away ( Read: Orlando). They are businessmen, as you pointed out. While Garber does have a hard on for NY2, that can happen in addition to another team or two, not instead of. Why would they possibly be opposed to making $ off the NY rivalry AND the new market of the SE.
I would respectfully submit that your mistake is in taking league pronouncements as simple statement of irrefutable fact. In reality commissioners of all leagues have to be nuanced and speak with a purpose beyond just enlightening the public to league thinking. MLS claimed there would be a moratorium at 18 until Saputo finally decided to play ball and lo and behold 18 became 19. If MLS has decided that a new Georgia Dome could house an Atlanta expansion team do you really think Arthur Blank could call the league tomorrow with public financing in place as long as the Falcons and a MLS expansion team are locked in as tenants and be told sorry call back in 5 years???
For this reason I don't see a halt to expansion till they get to 22 rather than 20 teams which everyone thinks. If they can get two solid bids from the southeast to cover the void for national TV coverage they will go for it. DG has made recent comments to the fact that he sees merit in the promotion of established USL and NASL markets to MLS. You need to look no further than the most recent additions of Seattle, Portland, Vancouver and Montreal. So with this in mind I can imagine adding both Orlando and Carolina by 2015 then cap the league for the next 8 to 10 years.
I'm not just taking the statements for consideration, I'm also taking into account that it makes logical sense both by thier action and the simple fact that they cannot continue to expand year after year indefinitely. The issue at hand has always been not if, but when. At what point do they cut off expansion and start internalizing thier efforts? It was always going to be some number, but I feel that some on this board are of the opinion that MLS would expand for 8 straight years until they got to 24. It was always going to be some number and I feel, as I believe DG does, that 20 makes sense. And Garber's statements of late have been far less nuanced than they were a few years back; part of the reason that they had to go over 18 was bc once they got to 16, the expansion markets that were available pretty much fit into the existing market scheme very seamlessly. For a second let me key on this point that you try to make: And this is a bit of a stretch to equate this argument to the situation of today's MLS. Of course they had to expand past 18 bc MLS was never going to curtail expansion while Montreal was on the outside. Montreal was always going to get in once Vancouver and TO arrived to tie down the Canadian TV market and get national coverage in that country. Vancouver in turn, along with Portland were definitely going to get in immediately to complete the Pacific NW market and bring key historical rivalries into the league's fold. And Philadelphia was going to get in partially on the strength of the SoB, but really for many of the same reasons that NY2 will likely remain MLS' focus; because it's a key east coast market and it completes fits in well with the NE markets that are already in the league. Atlanta is not the same proposition as Montreal was with 2 Canadian markets and 3 of the 4 strongest markets in Division 2 history already inside. It completed a set. Plainly put, Atlanta and Orlando are not Montreal, Vancouver, Seattle or Portland. They do not complete a circle of regional rivalries, and have not been as successful as those markets on the whole. Yes Garber floated the idea of stopping expansion at 18 however that would have left a market on the outside that were running operations that was ready to be major league now, while also splitting up important N. American rivalries that already existed in the lower league. None of the current D2 operations, including Orlando City, have shown the long-term strength and business acumen of the 4 former USL teams that were added to MLS in the past few years. None of them are in as important a market as Philadelphia. And there is absolutely nothing that those markets have as of yet that shows that MLS would be better off adding them now as opposed to ten years from now when the strength and brand recognition of the league itself will make it more likely that those propositions are successful in the long run. Now necessity breeding invention, this is one of the biggest things that hurts a lone Southeastern bid. There are no other markets to make it relevent. It will not complete a rivalry but rather create the need for further expansion. NY2 will not do that. NY2 will complete a marketscheme that has been represented in all four of the Big 4 leagues. And also I believe that MLS wants to emulate the hockey model. They did not expand to the South or even much of the West Coast until they had locked down their core markets in the Northeast, Canada and the Midwest for many years. They were then able to expand to new and untried markets from a position of strength. It therefore behooves MLS to try to create such a position of strength in all of it's current markets. They've seen the example that KC has set. They also know that some current markets may have to move and that's better done while they aren't in the constant flux due to expansion. As of today, and I wish that I could find one of the latter quotes by DG on this, but there is a methodology to his explanation about the changes in the league's focus on expansion that sounds less like a nuanced manner of coaxing competing markets and more like a plan of action. Also you've failed to take into account some of the other points that I've brought up concerning the differences in the league actions during this current expansion cycle. Practically discouraging expansion efforts in Sacremento on a local news broadcast there. Not showcasing expansion franchises anymore but instead switching to a broadcast model that emphasises market strength and fanbase size. These are clues that all is not business as usual or as it has been for the past five years. The focus of MLS is changing right now and it makes sense if you stop to think about what MLS' goals have to be right now. I'll key on another article by Jason Davis from Match Fit USA which pretty much simmers down to alot of what I believe: Just look at how much distraction that this topic alone provides for these boards. During an expansion process, where money is changing hands and marketing must be done, we have to remember that MLS is doing alot of this on a much smaller budget and with a much smaller staff than the Big 4 leagues. This detracts from the time that they can spend focusing on some of the older markets which need to catch up with the newer. Some markets may also be moving but none of this will happen while they are in a constant investment model. It's either or but it's not going to be both. MLS does not have the resources to multitask like that and DG knows this.
I may have overlooked Carolina, they have been a very strong market in D2 however they have yet to show any inclination of wanting to run an MLS franchise unless I'm missing something. Also don't overlook the fact that the results of stopping expansion for a decade hold a distinct probablility that one or even two franchises may end up moving. It will be an inclination of MLS to keep one or two prospective markets on the burner as either an catalyst to get a stadium built in an existing market, or to recieve the franchise that's being moved. Just a thought.
Actually, their have been a few articles on the web speaking to the Carolina Railhawks' intention of becoming a MLS team someday. However, you do make a lot a good points to stop at 20. But, my gut and logic tells me that the real number is 22. For example what do they do about David Beckham's rights to owning a expansion team. Also, I have to believe that networks are just not going to overlook the southeast for long. Florida is a huge market as far as rating are concerned.