I remember at the time of the last qualifying draw in November 2007 the Canadians were 4th in the CONCACAF rankings due to a good gold cup run. By using the May ranking for the draw that got wiped out and they were instead seeded 11th.
I would prefer as follows; First round: 4 groups of 4 ( for the bigger countries) and 4 groups of 6 (for the Small Islands, they would start earlier than the other 4 groups) top 2 advance Second round: 4 groups of 4: Top 2 advance Final round: 2 groups of 4: Group winners qualify, runners up play-off for the third spot with the loser going to an intercontinental play-off.
16 + 24= 40, so would you be planning on including the non-FIFA-recognized teams in CONCACAF? Not that it's completely out of the question (Oceania does it with the South Pacific games), and I'm sure that the likes of Martinique and Guadeloupe would appreciate it, but I don't know how feasible that is.
Realistically, I don't see a NT like Montserrat being able to do 4 away games (and perhaps more, if they don't get a FIFA-approved stadium in place). On the same note, I'm wondering how even a less drastic case like Belize is going to work out in a group stage, when it doesn't have any FIFA-approved stadia either. But I'd rather a few tiny islands get eliminated at the start, because then that lowers the potential number of drop-outs from the first group stage.
I'd like to see the earliest round in single venue groups, a bit like what they do with the Caribbean Cup at the moment. It does away with this need for a home stadium - simply host the groups in a country that does have a FIFA-approved stadium. If the groups are of 4 teams, the small islands will get at least 1 more game than they currently get, and then, as somebody else pointed out - an AFC Challenge Cup-style tournament for the eliminated teams could be something worth considering - with seedings for the next World Cup tournament decided by the small teams' performance in this 'consolation' tournament.
One possibility: I've used my own rankings to rank CONCACAF teams (it's not important, as it's only illustrative) Assumption: 35 entries Preliminary Round Group of lowest-ranked 4 teams - each to play each other once in a single venue (3 games each) British Virgin Islands, Anguilla, US Virgin Islands, Montserrat Top 2 progress to 1st Round 1st Round 9 teams receive bye to semi-final round (which will be 15 teams) Mexico, USA, Honduras, Costa Rica, Canada, Panama, Jamaica, El Salvador, Trinidad & Tobago 6 groups of 4 teams - each to play each other once in a single venue (3 games each) 1st seeds: Guatemala, Cuba, Haiti, Guyana, Antigua & Barbuda, Grenada 2nd seeds: Suriname, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, St.Kitts & Nevis, Nicaragua 3rd seeds: Curaçao, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Dominica, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, St. Lucia 4th seeds: Cayman Islands, Aruba, Bahamas, Turks & Caicos Islands, British Virgin Islands, Anguilla Winners of each group joins 9 byes in semi-final round Semi-final Round 3 groups of 5 teams - to play home and away (8 games each) 1st seeds: Mexico, USA, Honduras 2nd seeds: Costa Rica, Canada, Panama 3rd seeds: Jamaica, El Salvador, Trinidad & Tobago 4th seeds: Guatemala, Cuba, Haiti, Guyana, Antigua & Barbuda, Grenada Top 2 in each group qualify for Final Round (Hexagonal), 3rd-placed in each group is assured of a bye to the Semi-final round in the next edition, 4th and 5th-placved teams assured of being 1st seeds in the 1st Round of next year's edition Final Round 1 group of 6 teams - to play home and away (10 games each) So, top teams such as Mexico, USA, Costa Rica play 18 games. The maximum number of games for any team is 24 (Should a team from the preliminary round somehow get as far as the hexagonal) The realistic maximum number would be 21 (for the likes of Guatemala). The minimum number of games per team would be 3. The 20 teams eliminated in the 1st round or preliminary round could play a consolation tournament to determine seedings for the preliminary/1st round of the next edition and to ensure that the minimum number of games for any team would be 6 or 7.
Top 9 teams that get a bye, by FIFA rankings? How about just the 3 prior WC teams and the 4th place team. (or 4 WC teams if they win the playoff). That messes up the math I guess. I also do not like the idea of only the group winners in the first round advance to the second round. I much rather make the pre-lim round bigger to allow 1st and 2nds to advance after the first round. Other than that is not bad.
OK - Here's another attempt, trying to find a balance here - trying to maintain the number of games for the top teams - and make it meaningful and give the small countries a chance of more games. Assumption: 35 entries Preliminary Round Lowest 11 teams 2 groups of 4 teams, 1 group of 3 teams Each team to play each other once in a single venue (3 games or 2 games each) 1st seeds: Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, St.Lucia 2nd seeds: Cayman Islands, Aruba, Bahamas 3rd seeds: Turks & Caicos Islands, British Virgin Islands, Anguilla 4th seeds: US Virgin Islands, Montserrat Top 2 in each group progress to 1st Round (35>29 teams) 3rd and 4th placed teams must play in next edition’s Preliminary Round 1st Round 6 teams receive bye to semi-final round (which will be 15 teams) Mexico, USA, Honduras, Costa Rica, Canada, Panama 6 groups of 4 teams - each to play each other once in a single venue (3 games each) 1st seeds: Jamaica, El Salvador, Trinidad & Tobago, Guatemala, Cuba, Haiti 2nd seeds: Guyana, Antigua & Barbuda, Grenada, Suriname, Barbados, Belize 3rd seeds: Bermuda, St. Kitts & Nevis, Nicaragua, Curaçao, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Dominica 4th seeds: Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, St. Lucia, Cayman Islands, Aruba, Bahamas Winners of each group qualify for Semi-Final Round Runners-up of each group are paired into 3 ties – playing off home and away for a place in the Semi-Final Round Play-off losers assured of being 2nd seeds in next edition’s 1st Round 3rd-placed in each group assured of being 3rd seeds in next edition’s 1st Round 4th-placed finishers in each group must play in next edition’s Preliminary Round Semi-final Round 3 groups of 5 teams - to play home and away (8 games each) 1st seeds: Mexico, USA, Honduras 2nd seeds: Costa Rica, Canada, Panama 3rd seeds: Jamaica, El Salvador, Trinidad & Tobago 4th seeds: Guatemala, Cuba, Haiti 5th seeds: Guyana, Antigua & Barbuda, Grenada Top 2 in each group qualify for Final Round (Hexagonal), 3rd and 4th-placed in each group is assured of being a 1st seed in next edition’s 1st Round. 5th-placed teams assured of being 2nd seeds in the 1st Round of next edition. Final Round 1 group of 6 teams - to play home and away (10 games each) All 6 teams will be given byes to next edition’s Semi-final Round So, top teams such as Mexico, USA, Costa Rica play 18 games. The maximum number of games for any team is 26 (Should a team from the preliminary round somehow get as far as the hexagonal) The realistic maximum number would be 21 (for the likes of Guatemala) or 23 (including 1st Round play-offs). The minimum number of games per team would be 2. The one good thing about this system is that seedings for the next edition take care of themselves without the need to involve rankings, which can be manipulated (This would only be necessary for the first edition under the proposed system). I also think the single venue groups would be exciting - though there may be problems involving player release - I'm sure FIFA could find a way round that though.
mcruic, I still think that anything more than 20 games before interconfederational playoffs is too much, and if Africa can have almost every country participate in a double round-robin Group Stage (it was supposed to have 48 teams but at least 1 team dropped out) in qualifying for World Cup 2010, then CONCACAF should be able to play double round-robin groups also. Also with groups of five each team would have two matchdays off which would require more matchdays than games.
I give up There would only be more than 20 games if the likes of Haiti, Guatemala qualified for the World Cup - which is an outside chance. The top teams (Mexico, USA, etc.) would have 18 matches - the same as they do with the proposed new system (6, 6 and 6), and with the previous system (2, 6 and 10). Africa has MUCH more strength in depth than CONCACAF - Top to bottom, say Côte d'Ivoire -> Djibouti is about 8 or 9 goals difference - Mexico -> Montserrat, we're looking at 20 goals. The only thing that is wrong with the proposed system of a double round-robin is that there will be a great number of mismatches in each group. With a layered system like I proposed - this is avoided. Nobody wants to watch Mexico v Montserrat or USA v US Virgin Islands. There is practically no point in such games. Even the likes of Suriname and Barbados, middle-ranking teams, have trouble keeping the score down against the big teams. The biggest of mismatches would be USA v Grenada, Mexico v Antigua & Barbuda and such like - maybe 6 or 7 goals maximum - a bit more respectable. I don't see the problem with teams having 2 matchdays off out of 10. They could arrange 2 friendlies on those days to keep busy. And the CONCACAF Gold Cup qualification could be merged in World Cup cycles - the top 4 out of the 3 groups of 5 would qualify for a 12-team Gold Cup. This would cut down on games. I also don't think 20 matches over 2 years is a lot - some countries play that number of matches in 1 year, never mind 2. It just means there wouldn't be so much room for friendly matches - which is not necessarily a bad thing. What I think has to be achieved by any system is some kind of layer/tier system.. CONCACAF is too lopsided for an all-in system.
I do agree with you on the need to layer/tier the qualification system. There is a need for more playing opportunities in world cup qualifying for the smaller nations but the format CONCACAF has approved is the wrong way to go about it. It would be better to have the minnows playing a group stage of their own next summer while the gold cup is going on.
It is hard. How do you get from 35 countries (where there is a large football differences from top to bottom) to 3.5 countries in less than 20 games. Some Islands do not even have the money to travel across the Caribbean. The final round must be one group or two groups. I know a lot of people like the 6 team final group, some other want a 8-10 team final group, but that screws up the small countries so it will not happen, they have the votes and it would not be fair for them. I do think that the new Concacaf system is the best we can hope for right now. It would be better if we had 4 FIFA WC spots that would keep the Max number of games for legit contenders to 18. as of now the 4th team would have to play 22 games to make the WC. I do like the final round of two groups (I think it makes the Gold cop better if Mexico and the USA are in different qualifying groups). So the final round is 2 groups of 4 that is 8 teams, how do we go from 35 to 8? Concacaf should have strict standards on what countries need to be allowed to take part in the qualification. 10K seat stadium, in exchange Concacaf should finance half their travel expenses. Jack will just have to pocket a little less money, yes I know . So lets say 3 rounds; top 4 teams advance directly to the 2nd round (3/4 WC teams). So in the first round we need to go from 31 to 12. 1rst Round That means 6 groups 5 groups of 5 1 group of 6. Each group has a host city/country that is 4 or 5 games per country. If round robin first round then it becomes very complicated. *see note Top 2 advance 2nd Round Top 4 teams are heads of group The other 12 from round complete the 4 groups of 4; Top 2 advance Final round 2 groups of 4; same as the new Concacaf format. That is 12 games for most countries, with a max of 21 for any small island that makes it to the final FIFA playoff game. All that I know is that the final group of more that 4 had to go away! Sorry for all those that do not like that idea. -------------------------------------------------------- * Note: for the first round to work as a round robin (if small nations could afford the expenses) Then the first round would have to be as follows: 7 groups of 4 (6 games) 1 group of 3 (4 games) 8 Winners advance to second round; 8 second place teams eliminate each other to get the final 4 teams. That would mean a max of 24 games for a small island to make the WC as a play-in country.
That's missing the point though. They didn't just do it to give the smaller teams more games, they did it to give the smaller teams more games against the better teams - to help them improve. Guyana doesn't get better by only playing against teams like St. Lucia and Bahamas, they get better by playing against Costa Rica and Mexico. And now they get to, much more often, in this format. In the old format, only a small handful of the "middle" teams (like Guyana, Suriname, Haiti, Cuba, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Vincent/Grenadines, Netherlands Antilles, Barbados, even Nicaragua) got to actually play against the "big boys" in a group stage (since only a few reached the the semifinal round). Now they ALL get to. The more often teams like Guyana and company get to play against teams like Mexico, the more they learn from them and can see what it takes to play at that level. And the more teams we have playing at a high level, the better for everyone in CONCACAF. This setup isn't for the "minnows", it's for the "middles". Right now there is way too big of a gap between the top and the middle, and hopefully after a few years of cycles like this where they play each other regularly, that gap will decrease - and not because the top will have fallen down, but because the middle will have gotten stronger. The big difference between CONCACAF and UEFA right now is that when a team like Italy plays a team like Belarus, it's not an easy game (Italy won 4-3 IIRC). Whereas a similar matchup in this region would be USA taking on, say, Barbados. Well, we all saw how that went last time (8-0 in one leg). We need teams like Barbados to be stronger and this will help.
Good post. And I agree wholeheartedly. Though I think the minnows will benefit a bit, the real beneficiary will be the middle of CONCACAF (teams below the top 10 of USA, Mex, CR, Hon, Jamaica, T&T, Canada, Panama, Guatemala, El Salvador). We just got to the place where we could field 12 all CONCACAF teams in the Gold Cup without needing guest nations. Hopefully soon, we can go to 16, but we need the middle teams to improve so we aren't having 8-0 games at the Gold Cup. Gold Cup would be another opportunity for the middies to play the big boys. Having more teams participate would hopefully increase the cycle of improvement across the region. People just have to accept that CONCACAF has to do what is best for the entire region, not just the big teams.
I think this is the third time I post about this on BigSoccer. With the Nov 2007 ranking, these would have been the semifinal groups: Group 1: USA, Trinidad and Tobago, Haiti, Cuba Group 2: Mexico, Costa Rica, Canada, Guatemala Group 3: Honduras, Jamaica, El Salvador, St. Vincent and the Grenadines compared to: Group 1: USA, Trinidad and Tobago, Cuba, Guatemala Group 2: Mexico, Honduras, Jamaica, Canada Group 3: Costa Rica, Haiti, Suriname, El Salvador I still don't think Canada would have qualified for the hex.
Those groups are wrong. El Salvador would've played off with Haiti for a spot in Group 1 while Panama would've been in Group 3. Either way it's a tad naive to assume the draw would necessarily be the exact same.
Yes, you're right about El Salvador/Haiti/Panama. That was my assumption: the same draw, different seeding.
Edgar has his latest projection for the May 2011 ranking (used to seed teams for WCQ). http://www.football-rankings.info/2010/12/2014-fifa-world-cup-seeding-for.html For the record: Pot 1: USA (855), Mexico (773), Jamaica (596), Cuba (510), Honduras (485), Costa Rica (443), Canada (391), Panama (391). Pot 2: Grenada (384), Trinidad and Tobago (353), Haiti (348), Antigua & Barbuda (322), Guyana (284), Suriname (267), El Salvador (257), St. Kitts and Nevis (247) Pot 3: Guatemala (194), Dominica (193), Puerto Rico (180), Barbados (180), Netherlands Antilles (121), St. Vincent and the Grenadines (116), Cayman Islands (90), Bermuda (80). Pot 4: Dominican Republic (66), Nicaragua (53), Belize (44), British Virgin Islands (38), St. Lucia (31). Playoffs for last 3 spots in Pot 4: Turks and Caicos Islands (13), Bahamas (8), Aruba (7), US Virgin Islands (3), Anguilla (0), Montserrat (0). ------------------------------ Central American tourney in January will present the biggest opportunity to move up. Grenada still close to top 8, but big drop after them to the rest of Pot 2. And a big drop of 50 pts to Pot 3 and Guatemala, with their chance to move up with a good tourney. Maybe Nicaragua can move up to Pot 3 with a good tourney. And Netherland Antilles going bye-bye make shake some things up as well.
Haiti's so lucky that they were literally underestimated by FIFA going into Caribbean Cup qualifying. So, according to the rankings, instead of Haiti screwing up and missing out on the Caribbean Cup and the Gold Cup, somehow we overachieved by beating St. Vincent and tying Guyana. Hopefully the team gets itself together before World Cup qualifying next year...
Cross posted in the rankings thread. IMHO, the Caribbean Cup boosts the rankings for CONCACAF teams, suggesting that: 1) the new format will likewise help it, 2) so does playing Gold Cup every two years. New FIFA rankings out, pretty much status quo for CONCACAF in general, but with some big movers. Again, looking the rankings, one can see the positive effect of the Caribbean Cup, and in the larger sense, the wisdom in playing MORE games (Gold Cup every two years, new qualifying format). Individually: Big moves up: Cuba +32 (62nd), Jamaica +24 (58th), Haiti +11 (90th), Antigua & Barbuda +9 (106th), Guatemala +8 (118th), Suriname +6 (115th), United States +6 (18th). Big moves down: Guyana -23 (109), Trinidad & Tobago -11 (89th), Barbados -11 (131st), Costa Rica -6 (69th), Dominican Republic -6 (168th). Collectively, the collective average/mean CONCACAF ranking for December is 127.400, down (improvement) over 1 point from November. In fact, here is the trend from post World Cup, starting in August: 137.000, 137.143, 131.943, 128.571, 127.400. Again, an improvement of nearly 10 pts as a group, coinciding with the Caribbean Cup. Again, the mid/lower level nations playing games helps the region's ranking, plain and simple. Total picture, 35 CONCACAF teams by 50 team quadrants: 1-50 (2), 51-100 (9), 101-150 (10), 151-200 (12), 201+ (2). By 25 Team Quadrants: 1-25 (1), 26-50 (1), 51-75 (5), 76-100 (4), 101-125 (6), 126-150 (4), 151-175 (6), 176-200 (6), 200+ (2). When one looks at groupings (and I like to group in 25 or 50 ranks), not much changed, but we are still at the high water mark. Still two teams in the top 50, with the USA in the top 25 (18th) and Mexico just outside it at 27. Honduras was in the top 50 after the WC, but we haven't had another top 50 team since. However, we have more teams in the 51-75 range (5) than at any time since the WC. Our progression in this range since August: 1, 3, 3, 3, 5. The teams are Jamaica (58), Hondruas (59), Cuba (62), Panama (64), Costa Rica (69). Hopefully, with the Central American Cup in January, we'll get some more movement into the top 50 in the next two months. We still have 9 teams in the 51-100 range, equaling our high water mark of November 2010, but now more of them are 51-75, instead of 76-100. Both Jamaica & Cuba made the move up in this fashion. Guyana slipped out of the top 100, but Haiti moved up, accounting for the fact we still have 9 teams in the 51-100 range. From there on down the big picture remained the same, matching the good marks for November: 101-150 = 10 teams (with 6 from 101-125 and 4 from 126-150); 151-175 = 12 teams (with 6 teams on either side of 175). And Anguilla and Montserrat still with no points at 203. Individually: Guatemala moved up a quadrant (126th to 118th) and Barbados slipped on (120th to 131st). Everyone else remained in the same quadrant. FIFA Rank, Zonal Rank, Team, Points, Movement, Point Change 18 1 USA 867 6 20 27 2 Mexico 795 1 5 58 3 Jamaica 522 24 109 59 4 Honduras 516 -2 -6 62 5 Cuba 512 32 159 64 6 Panama 501 0 21 69 7 Costa Rica 467 -6 -23 84 8 Canada 411 1 8 89 9 Trinidad and Tobago 373 -11 -49 90 10 Haiti 367 11 32 94 11 Grenada 349 -3 -26 106 12 Antigua and Barbuda 299 9 46 109 13 Guyana 275 -23 -117 115 14 Suriname 257 6 26 117 15 El Salvador 251 0 4 118 16 Guatemala 247 8 30 121 17 St. Kitts and Nevis 239 1 9 129 18 Dominica 196 -1 -5 131 19 Barbados 187 -11 -48 133 20 Puerto Rico 184 -3 0 142 21 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 132 -3 -25 151 22 Netherlands Antilles 107 2 0 157 23 Cayman Islands 88 3 0 158 24 Nicaragua 86 3 0 168 25 Dominican Republic 66 -6 -19 172 26 Belize 54 3 0 175 27 Bermuda 49 -2 -14 176 28 British Virgin Islands 41 1 0 181 29 St. Lucia 37 1 0 187 30 Turks and Caicos Islands 19 1 0 194 31 Bahamas 13 -1 0 199 32 Aruba 7 0 0 200 33 US Virgin Islands 5 0 0 203 34 Anguilla 0 0 0 203 35 Montserrat 0 0 0
FIFA approve the new CONCACAF qualifying format According to various articles in the Mexican and Central American press (see this Univision article (http://futbol.univision.com/centroamerica/article/2010-11-03/la-fifa-aprobo-el-nuevo) for instance, FIFA have approved the new CONCACAF 2014 World Cup qualifying format (http://www.football-rankings.info/2010/08/concacaf-qualifying-system-news-update.html). It's interesting to know the draw for CONCACAF will take place on May 31st, 2011 in Zurich and will use the May 2011 FIFA ranking to seed the teams. The Brazilians have announced the main draw will take place on July 31st, 2011 in Brazil Also, there some info regarding the spots - both CONCACAF and CONMEBOL will keep their quota (3.5 and 4.5).
EXPANSION MINDED CONCACAF wants 4th World Cup spot NEW YORK – CONCACAF wants another spot in the World Cup. The executive committee of the confederation of North and Central America and Caribbean soccer on Sunday announced that it will fight for a guaranteed fourth place at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. During a meeting in Panama City, Panama, site of the Copa Centroamericana, the executive committee said it felt that CONCACAF had earned the right to increase its allotment of slots at World Cup finals from the 3.5 it currently possesses. “We believe that CONCACAF deserves another full place at the World Cup finals due to the performances of our teams on the field and the actions of our confederation off it,” CONCACAF president Jack Warner said in a statement. “We are unified in our efforts to make this happen.” A decision on the subject is expected to be made at a meeting of the FIFA Executive Committee in March. http://www.bigapplesoccer.com/article.php?article_id=26308