Just a short, quick update after the first day of games. There are 42 entries counting the two that kolabear posted. Currently 3 people are still perfect: kickithard Soccerhunter dmthomas49 Number of people who picked the winners from Friday's games: 42 Stanford 42 Florida St. 42 Marquette 42 Virginia 42 Florida 40 Portland 40 Notre Dame 39 Boston College 38 Baylor 35 Kentucky 35 Texas A&M 6 Auburn
Picks for the final 8: Stanford 38, Maryland 4 UCLA 27, SDSU 13, Pepperdine 1, California 1 North Carolina 36, Georgetown 2, Baylor 2, Illinois 1, Missouri 1 BYU 24, Marquette 11, West Virginia 7 Penn St. 35, Portland 4, Boston College 2, Michigan 1 Virginia 35, Duke 7 Florida 24, Wake Forest 13, Notre Dame 4, UCF 1 Florida St. 35, Ohio St. 6, Texas A&M 1 Picks for the final 4: Stanford(1) 30, UCLA(6) 9, Maryland(25) 2, SDSU(2) 1 North Carolina(10) 21, BYU(4) 15, Marquette(13) 4, Georgetown(31) 1, West Virginia(29) 1 Virginia(7) 21, Penn St.(3) 15, Duke(14) 5, Portland(19) 1 Florida St.(5) 28, Florida(8) 7, Wake Forest(16) 4, Ohio St.(12) 3 Those final 4 picks ranked by ARPI 1- Stanford 30 2- SDSU 1 3- Penn St. 15 4- BYU 15 5- Florida St. 28 6- UCLA 9 7- Virginia 21 8- Florida 7 9 - Baylor 0 - matched to BYU/North Carolina quarter 10- North Carolina 21 11 - Santa Clara 0 - matched to Stanford quarter 12- Ohio St. 3 13- Marquette 4 14- Duke 5 15- Tennessee 0 - matched to Virginia/Penn St. quarter 16- Wake Forest 4 17- UCF 0 - matched to Florida St. quarter 18- Texas A&M 0 - matched to Florida St. quarter 19- Portland 1 20- Michigan 0 - matched to Virginia/Penn St. quarter [below the top 20] 25- Maryland 2 29- West Virginia 1 31- Georgetown 1
I was so inspired by this that I kept going: There were 12 teams picked as potential finalists. Top 12 Picks for the Finals: Stanford (27; 64%), Virginia (18; 43%), Florida State (11; 26%), Penn St. & UCLA (8; 19%), UNC (4; 10%), Florida (3; 7%), BYU, Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland, SDSU (1; 2%). Top 5 Picks for the Winner: Stanford (15; 36%), Virginia (9; 21%), Florida St., Penn St. (4; 10%), UNC, UCLA (3; 7%). (Wake, Duke, BYU, Florida one vote each. Thoughts: Left side of the bracket: Players seem pretty confident that Stanford will take out UCLA. While opinions on the BYU/UNC game are mixed, neither seems considered to be a serious challenge to Stanford. If UCLA does get by Stanford, those players seem to expect they will get by either UNC or BYU as well, very possibly winning the Championship. Right Side of the bracket: Expectations for Virginia are very high, but opinions vary in the later rounds. A lot of folks think they will be taken out by either Penn St. or Fla. St. Those should be some of the most exciting games in the tourney! A surprising number of folks think the number 5 seed in the ACC has the momentum to make it to the Final game where Stanford is slightly favored, but that would be another wonderful match-up. Overall: Florida St., Penn St., UNC and BYU are teams that are favored to make the Final Four, but majority of players appear to feel they will run out of gas at that level of competition. On the other hand, players seem to feel UCLA faces an uphill fight to get to the final four, but those who think they can get there also seem to think they will go all the way! Should be a fun tourney!
31 Maximum (Not counting VT/Georgetown) Not much separation, yet with only 31 of the 32 games complete. 27 WPS_Movement, MRAD12, kickithard, GoCourage, BigSouth 26 UncleFugly, NilamCA, dmthomas49, DemitriMaximoffX, bradleyk15 25 Soccerhunter, philrothgeb, paltrysum, Norfolk, Morris20, kolabear, karanicole, justdoit, HoyaHooligan, Forgedias, Crimson Ace, cpthomas-rpi, bmoline, attackerp 24 OMG1, Newfor2010, midwestfan, IKNOSOCR, go T, gnarly, DrGoat, BWMTDP, Bettin' Kolabear, 2whoplay 23 raiderD15, CANAmerican, BruBru, bigbounce1 22 Nacional Tijuana, cachundo, 4oclocksomewhere 21 UNC4EVER In case a I get hit by a bus, here is the google docs spreadsheet I have been using for the scoring.
Results with the Georgetown / VT game in. 28 MRAD12 28 kickithard 28 GoCourage 28 BigSouth 27 WPS_Movement 27 NilamCA 27 dmthomas49 26 UncleFugly 26 philrothgeb 26 paltrysum 26 Norfolk 26 Morris20 26 justdoit 26 HoyaHooligan 26 Forgedias 26 DemitriMaximoffX 26 bradleyk15 25 Soccerhunter 25 OMG1 25 midwestfan 25 kolabear 25 karanicole 25 go T 25 Crimson Ace 25 cpthomas-rpi 25 BWMTDP 25 bmoline 25 attackerp 25 2whoplay 24 raiderD15 24 Newfor2010 24 IKNOSOCR 24 gnarly 24 DrGoat 24 BruBru 24 Bettin' Kolabear 23 CANAmerican 23 cachundo 23 bigbounce1 22 Nacional Tijuana 22 4oclocksomewhere 21 UNC4EVER
Points totals after the second round complete. Perfect for the two rounds is 64. TotalMember1st Round2nd Round 56BigSouth2828 54kickithard2826 54GoCourage2826 53NilamCA2726 52MRAD122824 51Crimson Ace2526 51BWMTDP2526 50philrothgeb2624 50HoyaHooligan2624 50bradleyk152624 49WPS_Movement2722 49kolabear2524 49karanicole2524 49dmthomas492722 49cpthomas-rpi2524 48UncleFugly2622 48raiderD152424 48Norfolk2622 48Morris202622 48justdoit2622 48Bettin' Kolabear2424 47OMG12522 47go T2522 47bmoline2522 46paltrysum2620 46Forgedias2620 46DrGoat2422 45Soccerhunter2520 45CANAmerican2322 45bigbounce12322 45attackerp2520 452whoplay2520 44gnarly2420 44DemitriMaximoffX2618 44BruBru2420 43midwestfan2518 42IKNOSOCR2418 41UNC4EVER2120 41cachundo2318 40Newfor20102416 404oclocksomewhere2218 38Nacional Tijuana2216
just goes to show you never can tell. I was starting to second -guess my "Bettin' Kolabear" pick of BYU in the quarterfinal -- especially when the NCAA posted that Marquette advanced on PKs and not BYU. Wouldn't North Carolina be the "defensive" pick? (as it turns out, not really; to my surprise 12 BigSoccer pundits picked North Carolina to advance to the Final Four whil 15, rather more than I expected, picked BYU to emerge out of that quadrant of the bracket.) And now North Carolina was lucky to scrape by Baylor in PKs in a game that I've heard was pretty even, with Baylor hitting the post twice. So, though I would've been happy to lose the pick North Carolina over Baylor today (knowing almost everyone else picked North Carolina as well), who knows what will happen in the quarterfinals?
Possible 96 points through 3 rounds. TotalMember1st Round2nd Round3rd Round 80 BigSouth 28 28 24 79 Crimson Ace 25 26 28 77 karanicole 25 24 28 76 Norfolk 26 22 28 76 MRAD12 28 24 24 74 kickithard 28 26 20 74 GoCourage 28 26 20 72 Bettin' Kolabear 24 24 24 71 BWMTDP 25 26 20 70 HoyaHooligan 26 24 20 70 DrGoat 24 22 24 70 bradleyk15 26 24 20 69 WPS_Movement 27 22 20 69 NilamCA 27 26 16 69 kolabear 25 24 20 69 cpthomas-rpi 25 24 20 69 bigbounce1 23 22 24 68 UncleFugly 26 22 20 68 raiderD15 24 24 20 68 DemitriMaximoffX 26 18 24 67 go T 25 22 20 66 philrothgeb 26 24 16 66 paltrysum 26 20 20 65 UNC4EVER 21 20 24 65 dmthomas49 27 22 16 65 CANAmerican 23 22 20 65 attackerp 25 20 20 64 Morris20 26 22 16 64 justdoit 26 22 16 64 BruBru 24 20 20 63 OMG1 25 22 16 63 bmoline 25 22 16 62 IKNOSOCR 24 18 20 61 Soccerhunter 25 20 16 61 2whoplay 25 20 16 60 gnarly 24 20 16 60 4oclocksomewhere 22 18 20 58 Nacional Tijuana 22 16 20 58 Forgedias 26 20 12 57 cachundo 23 18 16 56 Newfor2010 24 16 16 51 midwestfan 25 18 8
While my Bettin' Kolabear picks moved ahead of the Massey/Elo-based Kolabear bracket, this will probably be shortlived as the Bettin' picks were heavily dependent on Virginia advancing to the Final Four and Championship game. I'm not alone in being hung out to dry by Virginia's loss yesterday -- and those who went with Penn State, Florida State and Duke in future rounds are well-situated to move ahead in the standings and place highly in the contest. (I don't think anyone has Notre Dame advancing further) The Massey/Elo bracket and RPI brackets are currently tied for 13th-17th. All four of their Final Four picks are still in the running (they're the top 4 seeds) so they're still in good position, not to win the contest, but to place well, quite possibly in the top 10.
Quick add in terms of handicapping the "leaderboard"- Some leaders are in a better position than others because their remaining picks are still playing while others have picks that are eliminated. At a quick glance (apologies if I made some errors ) here are the eliminated picks among the contest leaders: Big South - Florida (eliminated) Crimson Ace - all remaining picks in contention karanicole - all teams in contention Norfolk - all teams in contention MRAD12 - Marquette (eliminated) kickithard - Florida GoCourage - all teams in contention Bettin' Kolabear - Virginia (eliminated) BWMTDP - all teams in contention Hoya Hooligan - Georgetown (eliminated) DrGoat - Wake Forest (eliminated) BradleyK15 - all teams in contention
Kolabear, here's an interesting piece of info: I've been doing some work comparing how the RPI works for the Top 60 teams as distinguished from how it works for the entire field, since it is the Top 60 that count for Tournament purposes. It turns out that home field advantage plays a bigger role for the Top 60 than it does for the entire field. For example, for the 2011 ARPI (I haven't done the 2012 version yet), on average for the entire field, the home team performs as though its rating were 0.008 higher and the away team as though its rating were 0.008 lower. But, on average for the Top 60, the number is 0.011.
Goofed with my handicapping of the leaderboard - I couldn't be the only one to be missing out because of Virginia, right? I missed the others who have Virginia as a pick for the Final Four. Here's the revised list - still no promises as to accuracy. Big South - Florida (eliminated), Virginia (eliminated) Crimson Ace - all remaining picks in contention karanicole - Virginia Norfolk - all teams in contention MRAD12 - Marquette (eliminated) kickithard - Florida, Virginia GoCourage - Virginia Bettin' Kolabear - Virginia BWMTDP - all teams in contention Hoya Hooligan - Georgetown (eliminated) DrGoat - Wake Forest (eliminated) BradleyK15 - Virginia Just below the leaderboard but in a good position to move up are the following, who have all their picks still in contention: Uncle Fugly Philrothgeb kolabear (Massey/Elo) cpthomas ("Improved" RPI)
By the way, I forgot to put in by proxy a bracket on behalf of The Committee. For what it's worth I think the Committee's bracket winds up exactly the same as the Massey/Elo bracket and cpthomas' "Improved RPI" this year. cpthomas - Is that correct? This year, at least I see no difference in the selections based on the NCAA's ARPI and your "Improved RPI". (The Committee's bracket is assumed to be the following: seeds over unseeded teams, higher seeds over lower rated seeds; if no seeds, then higher RPI. Between #1 seeds, then the bracket is assumed to be ordered by traditional seeding with the #1 number one seed in the top left corner, ie Stanford., and the traditional #2 seed in the bottom right corner, ie Florida State.) The Committee was just no fun this year and made it a little harder for me to grouse, although in some cases, the RPIs and the Committee's selections are, of course, self-fulfilling. For instance, Miami (FL) would've had homefield if Massey Ratings were used. Also California against Pepperdine.
I'm not sure I understand your question, but I think the seeding would have been the same under the "Improved" RPI as actually occurred. The at large selections might have been different, as UC Irvine and Utah would have been in the bubble group so it's possible they would have gotten at large selections and two other teams would have been out (I haven't looked to see if that would have been likely). If you or I had set the bracket with the pairings the Committee set up, we both would have had Cal at home and correctly would have predicted Cal as the winner, but we were stuck with the Committee's having the game at Pepperdine and had to predict Pepperdine as the winner due to our home field adjustments, so we both took a hit there. I had UCF rated higher than Miami FL (by a lot), so I was in the same position as the Committee there.
Sorry, I was doing the holiday traveling by car this weekend so I am late getting these out. Table includes the semi-final and final picks. It doesn't look like anyone with North Carolina winning it can still win the contest if I did the what-if scenarios correctly. Reminder that the point totals for the final two rounds are: Semi-finals..............8 Points Championship.........12 Points Should give some credit to the posters who had all of the final 4 teams correct: Norfolk dmthomas49 Nacional Tijuana Newfor2010 TotalMember1st Round2nd Round3rd Round4th RoundSemi-FinalistSemi-FinalistWinner 100 Norfolk 26 22 28 24 Stanford Penn St. Stanford 97 Crimson Ace 25 26 28 18 Stanford Florida St. Stanford 92 GoCourage 28 26 20 18 Stanford Virginia Stanford 89 dmthomas49 27 22 16 24 Stanford Penn St. Penn St. 88 MRAD12 28 24 24 12 Stanford Florida St. Florida St. 88 HoyaHooligan 26 24 20 18 Stanford Florida St. Stanford 88 bradleyk15 26 24 20 18 Stanford Florida St. Florida St. 87 kolabear 25 24 20 18 Stanford Florida St. Stanford 87 cpthomas-rpi 25 24 20 18 Stanford Florida St. Stanford 86 UncleFugly 26 22 20 18 Stanford Penn St. Penn St. 86 BigSouth 28 28 24 6 Stanford Virginia Virginia 84 philrothgeb 26 24 16 18 BYU Florida St. BYU 84 Bettin' Kolabear 24 24 24 12 Stanford Virginia Stanford 83 karanicole 25 24 28 6 UCLA Virginia Virginia 83 CANAmerican 23 22 20 18 Stanford Virginia Stanford 83 attackerp 25 20 20 18 Stanford Penn St. Penn St. 82 Nacional Tijuana 22 16 20 24 Stanford Penn St. Penn St. 82 justdoit 26 22 16 18 Stanford Virginia Stanford 82 DrGoat 24 22 24 12 UCLA Wake Forest Wake Forest 81 WPS_Movement 27 22 20 12 North Carolina Virginia North Carolina 81 NilamCA 27 26 16 12 Stanford Virginia Virginia 81 bmoline 25 22 16 18 Stanford Penn St. Stanford 81 bigbounce1 23 22 24 12 Stanford Virginia Virginia 80 Newfor2010 24 16 16 24 North Carolina Penn St. North Carolina 80 kickithard 28 26 20 6 UCLA Virginia Virginia 80 IKNOSOCR 24 18 20 18 Stanford Florida Stanford 80 DemitriMaximoffX 26 18 24 12 Stanford Virginia Stanford 77 UNC4EVER 21 20 24 12 Stanford Virginia Virginia 77 BWMTDP 25 26 20 6 UCLA Florida UCLA 76 Morris20 26 22 16 12 North Carolina Virginia Virginia 75 OMG1 25 22 16 12 San Diego St. Florida St. Florida St. 75 cachundo 23 18 16 18 Stanford Florida St. Stanford 74 raiderD15 24 24 20 6 UCLA Virginia UCLA 73 go T 25 22 20 6 UCLA Virginia Virginia 72 paltrysum 26 20 20 6 Stanford Duke Duke 72 gnarly 24 20 16 12 Stanford Florida St. Florida St. 72 4oclocksomewhere 22 18 20 12 UCLA Virginia Virginia 70 BruBru 24 20 20 6 UCLA Florida St. UCLA 67 Soccerhunter 25 20 16 6 North Carolina Virginia North Carolina 67 2whoplay 25 20 16 6 Stanford Virginia Stanford 63 midwestfan 25 18 8 12 Stanford Penn St. Stanford 58 Forgedias 26 20 12 0 Maryland Florida Florida
Good job by those four! Meanwhile the combined wisdom of Massey/Elo/RPI/cpthomas AND The Committee is doing reasonably well in 8th place. Only 3 contestants are currently more than 2 points ahead. I think that shows how tough it can be to "beat the system". I have to (grudgingly) give some credit to the RPI for not having a raft of major screw-ups this year, but that's a hit or miss kind of thing. (The RPI "predictions" and the Massey ones work out exactly the same this time although that doesn't mean the bracket would've looked the same if Massey's Rating or another Elo rating was used by the Committee.) Consider, too, if someone (say Bettin' Kolabear) had made one and only one change to the bracket (North Carolina over BYU in the quarterfinals), that person would have 93 points and be in 3rd place. One change!
Assuming Norfolk won the Powerball, so probably not interested in this anymore. However, still posting for everyone else. There are two possible outcomes at this point. With a UNC win, Norfolk and Newfor2010 will share the top spot. With a Penn State win, dmthomas49 will have the top spot. Final game is worth 12 points. Another shout out to Newfor2010 for having the only entry with both semi-finalists. Fantastic result for an interesting tournament. TotalMember1st Round2nd Round3rd Round4th RoundSemi-FinalWinner 108 Norfolk 26 22 28 24 8 Stanford 97 dmthomas49 27 22 16 24 8 Penn St. 97 Crimson Ace 25 26 28 18 0 Stanford 96 Newfor2010 24 16 16 24 16 North Carolina 94 UncleFugly 26 22 20 18 8 Penn St. 92 GoCourage 28 26 20 18 0 Stanford 91 attackerp 25 20 20 18 8 Penn St. 90 Nacional Tijuana 22 16 20 24 8 Penn St. 89 WPS_Movement 27 22 20 12 8 North Carolina 89 bmoline 25 22 16 18 8 Stanford 88 MRAD12 28 24 24 12 0 Florida St. 88 HoyaHooligan 26 24 20 18 0 Stanford 88 bradleyk15 26 24 20 18 0 Florida St. 87 kolabear 25 24 20 18 0 Stanford 87 cpthomas-rpi 25 24 20 18 0 Stanford 86 BigSouth 28 28 24 6 0 Virginia 84 philrothgeb 26 24 16 18 0 BYU 84 Morris20 26 22 16 12 8 Virginia 84 Bettin' Kolabear 24 24 24 12 0 Stanford 83 karanicole 25 24 28 6 0 Virginia 83 CANAmerican 23 22 20 18 0 Stanford 82 justdoit 26 22 16 18 0 Stanford 82 DrGoat 24 22 24 12 0 Wake Forest 81 NilamCA 27 26 16 12 0 Virginia 81 bigbounce1 23 22 24 12 0 Virginia 80 kickithard 28 26 20 6 0 Virginia 80 IKNOSOCR 24 18 20 18 0 Stanford 80 DemitriMaximoffX 26 18 24 12 0 Stanford 77 UNC4EVER 21 20 24 12 0 Virginia 77 BWMTDP 25 26 20 6 0 UCLA 75 Soccerhunter 25 20 16 6 8 North Carolina 75 OMG1 25 22 16 12 0 Florida St. 75 cachundo 23 18 16 18 0 Stanford 74 raiderD15 24 24 20 6 0 UCLA 73 go T 25 22 20 6 0 Virginia 72 paltrysum 26 20 20 6 0 Duke 72 gnarly 24 20 16 12 0 Florida St. 72 4oclocksomewhere 22 18 20 12 0 Virginia 71 midwestfan 25 18 8 12 8 Stanford 70 BruBru 24 20 20 6 0 UCLA 67 2whoplay 25 20 16 6 0 Stanford 58 Forgedias 26 20 12 0 0 Florida
I will gladly conceed the top spot to Newfor2010 for correctly picking UNC to win it all. Congratulations!
So as I understand it, there is a special realm in Dante's purgatory for those (otherwise) staunch Believers who lose Faith? That is where I shall dwell, (and Well Deserve to remain) until next August when hopefully I can redeem myself with unquestioned Carolina loyalty. Well done to Newfor2012, Soccerhunter, and WPS_Movement for keeping the Faith in a year when the Weak were led into Doubt... I feel a bit like Marlowe's Faustus: The stars move still, time runs, the clock will strike, The devil will come, and UNC4EVER must be damned. O I'll leap up to Anson and my loyalty to the Team: who Is this who pulls me down? See, see, where UNC's Triumph streams across the firmament. One drop would save my soul, half a drop, ah, oh well... my ****in' bad! Next Year I'll know better than to question the best program in the women's game. Congrats to the winners!! I should get you guys to manage my retirement portfolio! I have no idea how you did it? This has been one wild tourney... Really good fun!!!
Nah, I wouldn't do that. For tiebreaker, I would say, who had the most correct picks? I'm sure Norfolk did. Nice job to both.
I can't change the rules midstream, but I like the sentiment especially in this bitterly partisan political season. Congratulations Newfor2010 and Norfolk for taking the top spots and WPS_Movement for taking the next spot. Thanks to everyone else for submitting your brackets. TotalMember1st Round2nd Round3rd Round4th RoundSemi-FinalFinal 108Newfor2010 24 16 16 24 16 12 108Norfolk 26 22 28 24 8 0 101WPS_Movement 27 22 20 12 8 12 97 dmthomas49 27 22 16 24 8 0 97 Crimson Ace 25 26 28 18 0 0 94 UncleFugly 26 22 20 18 8 0 92 GoCourage 28 26 20 18 0 0 91 attackerp 25 20 20 18 8 0 90 Nacional Tijuana 22 16 20 24 8 0 89 bmoline 25 22 16 18 8 0 88 MRAD12 28 24 24 12 0 0 88 HoyaHooligan 26 24 20 18 0 0 88 bradleyk15 26 24 20 18 0 0 87 Soccerhunter 25 20 16 6 8 12 87 kolabear 25 24 20 18 0 0 87 cpthomas-rpi 25 24 20 18 0 0 86 BigSouth 28 28 24 6 0 0 84 philrothgeb 26 24 16 18 0 0 84 Morris20 26 22 16 12 8 0 84 Bettin' Kolabear 24 24 24 12 0 0 83 karanicole 25 24 28 6 0 0 83 CANAmerican 23 22 20 18 0 0 82 justdoit 26 22 16 18 0 0 82 DrGoat 24 22 24 12 0 0 81 NilamCA 27 26 16 12 0 0 81 bigbounce1 23 22 24 12 0 0 80 kickithard 28 26 20 6 0 0 80 IKNOSOCR 24 18 20 18 0 0 80 DemitriMaximoffX 26 18 24 12 0 0 77 UNC4EVER 21 20 24 12 0 0 77 BWMTDP 25 26 20 6 0 0 75 OMG1 25 22 16 12 0 0 75 cachundo 23 18 16 18 0 0 74 raiderD15 24 24 20 6 0 0 73 go T 25 22 20 6 0 0 72 paltrysum 26 20 20 6 0 0 72 gnarly 24 20 16 12 0 0 72 4oclocksomewhere 22 18 20 12 0 0 71 midwestfan 25 18 8 12 8 0 70 BruBru 24 20 20 6 0 0 67 2whoplay 25 20 16 6 0 0 58 Forgedias 26 20 12 0 0 0
Please let me know to whom I should send my wire transfer instructions for the payment of the winnings. To UNC4EVER - I forgive you this time. To be honest, many of my earlier picks which were wrong were from what I though good soccer sense. The UNC picks were a combination of believing they could beat teams early in the tournament and hoping they could find a way to get to the final 4. You can start the 2013 tournament preditions now and my pick for the nationa championship for 2013 will be the same, no matter what.