Oh I didn't read this thread til now. I'll try to do something based on Massey. Even if it's late, it'll just be based on the 11/6 ratings which I already posted earlier this week. I can't answer what cpthomas said about homefield though about not converting to Albyn Jones. Best I might be able to do is to use the AJ conversion and a homefield advantage of let's say 60 points because that's what I've been using recently.
Alright, based on Massey's ratings (using an Albyn Jones scale and a 60 point homefield advantage - sorry can't think of another way of rationally doing it on the spur of the moment). It's a pretty boring selection list and misses on most of the real excitement that is sure to happen. 1st round: Stanford So Carolina Santa Clara Boston College Auburn Maryland Illinois Oklahoma St Virginia Kentucky (WSU has higher rating; homefield gives KY the advantage) West Virginia Texas A&M Memphis Louisville (Dayton has higher rating; homefield gives Louisville the advantage) Oregon St Florida St Wake Forest Boston U marquette Penn St North Carolina Baylor UCF Florida UCLA Irvine Miami Pepperdine Tennessee Milwaukee Kansas (Georgia, barely, has the higher rating; homefield gives KS the advantage) Duke 2nd round Stanford Santa Clara Maryland (neutral site matters here - if it was at Auburn then homefield would give them the advantage) OK State Virginia Texas A&M Memphis Florida St Wake Forest Penn St North Carolina Florida UCLA Pepperdine Milwaukee (neutral site matters here; if this was at seeded Tennessee, they would have the advantage) Duke 3rd round Stanford Oklahoma St Virginia Florida St Wake Forest North Carolina UCLA Duke Final Four: Stanford Florida St Wake Forest Duke Final: Stanford Duke National champion: Stanford Thank goodness I'm not a bettin' man. Sidenote: off top of my hand, best dark horses (based on opportunities in the seedings): Illinois to advance to the quarterfinals Memphis to advance to....? ( a real dark horse) Baylor - a dark horse candidate to make the quarterfinals Tennessee into the 3rd round (Illinois St - an intriguing unknown. I think Chris at AWK is picking them for an upset in the 1st round at least.) My personal feeling? I think at least two #1 seeds won't make it to the final four (Florida St and Wake) Thank goodness I'm not a bettin' man.
I'm not going to use an ratings or RPI's or Rankings. I'm gointg to use Gut Feeling, and see what happens. This game is meant to be played on a grass field, 11 on 11 and a referee in the middle. Not on a computer and/or calculator: For all its worth: 1st Round Stanford South Carolina Santa Clara Boston College Auburn Maryland Notre Dame Oklahoma St. Virginia Washington St. Virginia Tech LSU Memphis Louisville Portland Florida St. Wake Forest Boston U. Marquette Army North Carolina Baylor FIU Florida UCLA UC Irvine Miami (FL) Pepperdine Ohio St. Milwaukee Georgia Duke 2nd Round Stanford Boston College Auburn Notre Dame Virginia LSU Memphis Florida St. Wake Forest Marquette North Carolina Florida UCLA Pepperdine Milwaukee Duke 3rd Round Stanford Notre Dame Virginia Florida St. Marquette North Carolina UCLA Duke Final Four Stanford Florida St. North Carolina UCLA Final Florida St. UCLA National Champs Florida St.
Through the first 12 games... no perfect brackets (36 total entries)... 11 attackerp 11 crazyhorse 11 darntaz 11 GopherBob 11 IceDog 11 Justdoit 11 Norfolk 11 nvsoccerfan (reigning champion) 11 SoccerHunter 11 theguru 11 UNC4EVER 11 uscue13 11 WPS_Movement 10 bmoline 10 Bradleyk15 10 BruBru 10 cpthomas (rpi) 10 GoCourage 10 iknosocr 10 karanicole 10 kickithard 10 kolabear (approx. aj/massey) 10 Paltrysum 10 richmondD15 10 SCUFANTASTIC 10 socdad 10 UncleFugly 9 4oclocksomewhere 9 DemitriMaximoffX 9 DrGoat 9 gogogo 9 hykos1045 9 soccershins 9 Stinky Shinguards 8 MRAD12 8 NilamCA
Of those teams with 11 of 12, do you have the breakdown of which teams they missed on? I know for me, I missed Portland over Oregon State. Curious what the other misses were
And the breakdown of which teams we think will emerge from the third round. No surprise that Stanford tops expectations of which team will emerge... Third Round Stanford.........91.67%..| .........................|..8.33%.....Boston College Auburn............5.56%..| .........................|.19.44%.....Maryland Illinois.........16.67%..|.19.44%.....Notre Dame .........................|.38.89%.....Oklahoma St Virginia.........69.44%..| West Virginia....13.89%..| .........................|.16.67%.....Texas A&M Memphis..........13.89%..| .........................|..2.78%.....Louisville Oregon St.........5.56%..| .........................|.77.78%.....Florida St Wake Forest......55.56%..| .........................|..2.78%.....Boston U Marquette........19.44%..| .........................|.22.22%.....Penn St North Carolina...72.22%..| UCF...............2.78%..| .........................|.25.00%.....Florida UCLA.............86.11%..| .........................|..8.33%.....UC Irvine .........................|..5.56%.....Pepperdine Illinois St.......2.78%..|.13.89%.....Milwaukee .........................|.83.33%.....Duke Final bit of trivia, this is how the selections of WCC champion shook out... 50% think Stanford will get their first. 18 Stanford 5 Duke 4 Florida St. 2 North Carolina 2 UCLA 1 Notre Dame 1 Oklahoma St. 1 Penn St. 1 Virginia 1 Wake Forest
Hopefully this formats correctly for everyone... maybe not the best way to represent it, but it is coming from the spreadsheet. Overwhelmingly, it was Portland's upset, followed by San Diego, UCF, and Maryland as the challenging picks. darntaz............:.......................................Portland......................... UncleFugly.................................................Portland................San.Diego bmoline....................................................Portland................San.Diego kickithard.........................Maryland................Portland......................... 4oclocksomewhere...South.Carolina.............................................UCF..San.Diego uscue13....................................................Portland......................... IceDog.....................................................Portland......................... crazyhorse.........................................................................San.Diego BruBru.............................Maryland................Portland......................... GoCourage..................................................Portland................San.Diego Justdoit...........................................................................San.Diego Bradleyk15.................................................Portland................San.Diego GopherBob..................................................Portland......................... SoccerHunter...............................................Portland......................... Paltrysum..................................................Portland................San.Diego theguru............................................................................San.Diego Stinky.Shinguards..................Maryland................Portland................San.Diego attackerp..........................................................................San.Diego hykos1.45..........................Maryland...................................UCF..San.Diego socdad.............South.Carolina..........................Portland......................... NilamCA............................Maryland................Portland..Penn.St..UCF........... Norfolk............................................................................San.Diego SCUFANTASTIC...............................................Portland...........UCF........... WPS_Movement...............................................Portland......................... cpthomas.rpi...............................................Portland................San.Diego karanicole.................................................Portland................San.Diego gogogo...............................................................Penn.St..UCF..San.Diego soccershins........................Maryland................Portland................San.Diego richmondD15................................................Portland................San.Diego iknosocr...................................................Portland...........UCF........... UNC4EVER...........................................................................San.Diego DemitriMaximoffX...........................................Portland...........UCF..San.Diego DrGoat.....................................................Portland...........UCF..San.Diego nvsoccerfan................................................Portland......................... kolabear..jones/mas........................................Portland................San.Diego MRAD12........................................Texas.A&M..............Penn.St..UCF..San.Diego
Through the games tonight, including UCLA's win over New Mexico. 25 nvsoccerfan (reigning champion) 24 SoccerHunter 23 WPS_Movement 23 uscue13 23 IceDog 23 BruBru 23 attackerp 22 theguru 22 Norfolk 22 MRAD12 22 karanicole 22 Justdoit 22 darntaz 22 crazyhorse 21 UNC4EVER 21 SCUFANTASTIC 21 richmondD15 21 Paltrysum 21 kolabear aj/m 21 DrGoat 21 Bradleyk15 21 bmoline 20 socdad 20 soccershins 20 kickithard 20 iknosocr 20 hykos1045 20 GopherBob 20 gogogo 20 cpthomas rpi 20 4oclocksomewhere 19 UncleFugly 19 GoCourage 19 DemitriMaximoffX 18 Stinky Shinguards 18 NilamCA
And after all of the 1st round games, the current scores are listed below. The best possible score for the first round is 32. 28 nvsoccerfan 27 SoccerHunter 26 WPS_Movement 26 karanicole 26 Justdoit 26 IceDog 26 darntaz 26 BruBru 26 attackerp 25 uscue13 25 theguru 25 SCUFANTASTIC 25 richmondD15 25 MRAD12 25 crazyhorse 25 Bradleyk15 25 bmoline 24 Paltrysum 24 Norfolk 24 kolabear aj/m 24 kickithard 24 GopherBob 24 DrGoat 23 UncleFugly 23 UNC4EVER 23 soccershins 23 iknosocr 23 hykos1045 23 cpthomas rpi 23 4oclocksomewhere 22 Stinky Shinguards 22 socdad 22 NilamCA 22 gogogo 22 DemitriMaximoffX 21 GoCourage -- The teams that people missed are listed below. Sorry, I don't have the stats for teams remaining per person. If enough people are interested in it, I will try to get to it later. Code: 4oclocksomewhere South Carolina,California,Illinois,Washington St,UCF,UCLA,San Diego,Miami (FL),Long Beach St, attackerp Illinois,Virginia Tech,Louisville,San Diego,Long Beach St,Ohio St, bmoline California,Virginia Tech,Louisville,Portland,San Diego,Long Beach St,Ohio St, Bradleyk15 California,Washington St,Virginia Tech,Portland,San Diego,Long Beach St,Ohio St, BruBru Maryland,Illinois,Washington St,Portland,Long Beach St,Ohio St, cpthomas California,Washington St,Virginia Tech,Louisville,Portland,San Diego,Long Beach St,Ohio St,Georgia crazyhorse California,Illinois,Virginia Tech,San Diego,Long Beach St,Ohio St,Milwaukee, darntaz California,Washington St,Louisville,Portland,Long Beach St,Ohio St, DemitriMaximoffX California,Auburn,Illinois,Washington St,Virginia Tech,Louisville,Portland,UCF,San Diego,Ohio St, DrGoat California,Illinois,Virginia Tech,Louisville,Portland,UCF,San Diego,Long Beach St, GoCourage California,Illinois,Washington St,Virginia Tech,Louisville,Portland,San Diego,Miami (FL),Long Beach St,Ohio St,Georgia gogogo California,Illinois,Washington St,Virginia Tech,Penn St,UCF,San Diego,Long Beach St,Ohio St,Georgia GopherBob California,Washington St,Virginia Tech,Louisville,Portland,Miami (FL),Long Beach St,Ohio St, hykos1045 Maryland,Washington St,Virginia Tech,Louisville,UCF,San Diego,Long Beach St,Ohio St,Georgia IceDog California,Auburn,Illinois,Washington St,Portland,North Carolina, iknosocr California,Illinois,Virginia Tech,Louisville,Portland,Marquette,UCF,Long Beach St,Ohio St, Justdoit California,Washington St,Louisville,San Diego,Long Beach St,Ohio St, karanicole California,Virginia Tech,Portland,San Diego,Long Beach St,Ohio St, kickithard California,Maryland,Washington St,Virginia Tech,Louisville,Portland,Long Beach St,Ohio St, kolabear California,Washington St,Virginia Tech,Portland,San Diego,Long Beach St,Ohio St,Georgia MRAD12 California,Illinois,Texas A&M,Penn St,UCF,San Diego,Long Beach St, NilamCA California,Maryland,Virginia Tech,Louisville,Portland,Penn St,North Carolina,UCF,Miami (FL),Ohio St, Norfolk California,Illinois,Washington St,Virginia Tech,San Diego,Long Beach St,Milwaukee,Georgia nvsoccerfan Illinois,Virginia Tech,Portland,Long Beach St, Paltrysum California,Illinois,Virginia Tech,Louisville,Portland,San Diego,Long Beach St,Milwaukee, richmondD15 California,Virginia Tech,Louisville,Portland,San Diego,Long Beach St,Ohio St, SCUFANTASTIC California,Washington St,Virginia Tech,Portland,UCF,Long Beach St,Ohio St, SoccerHunter California,Illinois,Portland,Long Beach St,Ohio St, soccershins California,Maryland,Illinois,Washington St,Virginia Tech,Louisville,Portland,San Diego,Ohio St, socdad South Carolina,California,Illinois,Washington St,Virginia Tech,Louisville,Portland,Boston U,Long Beach St,Georgia Stinky Shinguards California,Maryland,Washington St,Virginia Tech,Portland,Boston U,San Diego,Miami (FL),Long Beach St,Milwaukee, theguru California,Illinois,Washington St,Boston U,San Diego,Long Beach St,Ohio St, UNC4EVER California,Illinois,Washington St,Virginia Tech,Louisville,San Diego,Long Beach St,Ohio St,Georgia UncleFugly California,Washington St,Virginia Tech,Louisville,Portland,San Diego,Miami (FL),Long Beach St,Ohio St, uscue13 California,Illinois,Virginia Tech,Portland,Long Beach St,Ohio St,Georgia WPS_Movement California,Illinois,Virginia Tech,Louisville,Portland,Long Beach St,
Hey, I wondered if we should put in an entry on behalf of The Committee. It's basically RPI but with whatever modifications the Committee in its wisdom saw fit to insert using their Seeding Criteria (Primary and Secondary) and all that jazz. So it follows the seeding, rather than straight RPI. If the Committee saw fit to seed a team, that's a clear indication they thought other criteria outweighed a straight application of the RPI, doesn't it? The last assumption we have to make is they implicitly seeded the bracket as a traditional bracket (1 thru 16) even though they don't do so explicitly. But in other words, Stanford is in the traditional #1 spot at the top left corner. Duke is #2 at the bottom right. Wake Forest and Florida St occupy the traditional #3 and #4 seeds respectively. Where the seeding doesn't determine a selection then the fallback is to select the team with the higher RPI. If we modify cpthomas' RPI list, showing the changes in bold (and showing the overridden RPI selection in italics), then, if I'm not mistaken, that leaves the Committee's tournament picks looking like this: 1st Round Stanford South Carolina Santa Clara Boston College Auburn Maryland Illinois Oklahoma St. Virginia Kentucky West Virginia Texas A&M Memphis Dayton Oregon St. Florida St. Wake Forest Boston U. Marquette Penn St. North Carolina Baylor UCF Florida UCLA UC Irvine Miami (FL) Pepperdine Tennessee Milwaukee Kansas Duke 2nd Round Stanford Boston College Auburn Oklahoma St. Virginia Texas A&M Memphis Florida St. Wake Forest Penn St. North Carolina Florida UCLA Pepperdine Milwaukee Tennessee Duke 3rd Round Stanford Oklahoma St. Virginia Memphis Florida St Wake Forest Florida UCLA Duke Final Four Stanford Virginia Florida St Wake Forest Duke Final Stanford Duke National Champs Duke Stanford
Kolabear, that's great and an interesting enterprise. The part of it I think probably isn't right is assuming that all the seeds are in positions of 1-16. For the four #1 seeds, I think it's legitimate. After that, I don't think it's clear they are placing the teams in order. The deeper you get into the seeds, the less likely they're in a 1-16 order.
That should work then because, as you see in the modifications I made to your RPI-driven list, the only changes I made fell into these categories: a) a seeded team is picked over a non-seeded team b) a higher seed (an explicitly made seed) is picked over a lower one c) Stanford over Duke - the #1 bracket seeds are assumed to be placed in a traditional bracket orientation
I am REALLY upset that I missed out on this year's bracket challenge. I started this thing several years ago and haven't missed one yet. I guess this is what happens when I never leave the office. Have fun gang!
Here is how the second round (only) shakes out. 32 possible points for the round. Some of the surprise winners... 4 people had Virginia Tech, 4 people had Louisville, 1 person had UCF (IceDog), nobody had San Diego, 4 people had Long Beach State, and 3 people had Ohio State. 20 WPS_Movement 20 karanicole 20 Justdoit 20 IceDog 20 BruBru 20 Bradleyk15 18 socdad 18 SoccerHunter 18 nvsoccerfan 18 Norfolk 18 kolabear aj/m 18 hykos1045 18 DrGoat 18 darntaz 18 crazyhorse 18 cpthomas rpi 18 4oclocksomewhere 16 uscue13 16 UncleFugly 16 UNC4EVER 16 theguru 16 soccershins 16 SCUFANTASTIC 16 Paltrysum 16 kickithard 16 gogogo 16 GoCourage 16 DemitriMaximoffX 16 bmoline 14 richmondD15 14 MRAD12 14 GopherBob 14 attackerp 12 Stinky Shinguards 12 NilamCA 12 iknosocr
....and after some suspense, I'm sure, here are the results after 2 rounds (total). 46 WPS_Movement 46 nvsoccerfan 46 karanicole 46 Justdoit 46 IceDog 46 BruBru 45 SoccerHunter 45 Bradleyk15 44 darntaz 43 crazyhorse 42 Norfolk 42 kolabear aj/m 42 DrGoat 41 uscue13 41 theguru 41 SCUFANTASTIC 41 hykos1045 41 cpthomas rpi 41 bmoline 41 4oclocksomewhere 40 socdad 40 Paltrysum 40 kickithard 40 attackerp 39 UncleFugly 39 UNC4EVER 39 soccershins 39 richmondD15 39 MRAD12 38 GopherBob 38 gogogo 38 DemitriMaximoffX 37 GoCourage 35 iknosocr 34 Stinky Shinguards 34 NilamCA
Results from the 3rd round only. 24 SCUFANTASTIC 24 kolabear aj/m 24 karanicole 24 GoCourage 24 darntaz 20 theguru 20 socdad 20 richmondD15 20 Paltrysum 20 Justdoit 20 iknosocr 20 DrGoat 20 cpthomas rpi 20 BruBru 20 attackerp 20 4oclocksomewhere 16 UncleFugly 16 UNC4EVER 16 SoccerHunter 16 MRAD12 16 IceDog 16 hykos1045 16 gogogo 16 DemitriMaximoffX 16 crazyhorse 16 Bradleyk15 16 bmoline 12 WPS_Movement 12 uscue13 12 nvsoccerfan 12 Norfolk 8 Stinky Shinguards 8 soccershins 8 NilamCA 8 kickithard 8 GopherBob
And the total points through all three rounds. 70 karanicole 68 darntaz 66 kolabear aj/m 66 Justdoit 66 BruBru 65 SCUFANTASTIC 62 IceDog 62 DrGoat 61 theguru 61 SoccerHunter 61 GoCourage 61 cpthomas rpi 61 Bradleyk15 61 4oclocksomewhere 60 socdad 60 Paltrysum 60 attackerp 59 richmondD15 59 crazyhorse 58 WPS_Movement 58 nvsoccerfan 57 hykos1045 57 bmoline 55 UncleFugly 55 UNC4EVER 55 MRAD12 55 iknosocr 54 Norfolk 54 gogogo 54 DemitriMaximoffX 53 uscue13 48 kickithard 47 soccershins 46 GopherBob 42 Stinky Shinguards 42 NilamCA
The quarterfinal round points. 24 points possible. 24 SCUFANTASTIC 24 Paltrysum 24 kolabear aj/m 24 key 24 Justdoit 18 UNC4EVER 18 socdad 18 GoCourage 18 DemitriMaximoffX 18 cpthomas rpi 18 bmoline 18 attackerp 18 4oclocksomewhere 12 uscue13 12 theguru 12 SoccerHunter 12 richmondD15 12 Norfolk 12 MRAD12 12 karanicole 12 GopherBob 12 gogogo 12 DrGoat 12 darntaz 12 crazyhorse 12 BruBru 12 Bradleyk15 6 WPS_Movement 6 UncleFugly 6 Stinky Shinguards 6 soccershins 6 nvsoccerfan 6 kickithard 6 iknosocr 6 hykos1045 0 NilamCA 0 IceDog
And the overall leaders after the quarterfinal round... 90 kolabear aj/m 90 Justdoit 89 SCUFANTASTIC 84 Paltrysum 82 karanicole 80 darntaz 79 GoCourage 79 cpthomas rpi 79 4oclocksomewhere 78 socdad 78 BruBru 78 attackerp 75 bmoline 74 DrGoat 73 UNC4EVER 73 theguru 73 SoccerHunter 73 Bradleyk15 72 DemitriMaximoffX 71 richmondD15 71 crazyhorse 67 MRAD12 66 Norfolk 66 gogogo 65 uscue13 64 WPS_Movement 64 nvsoccerfan 63 hykos1045 62 IceDog 61 UncleFugly 61 iknosocr 58 GopherBob 54 kickithard 53 soccershins 48 Stinky Shinguards 42 NilamCA
I'm kind of shocked that there are so many possible ties. Quite a few people with a chance depending on how the finals shake out. Just a reminder that the scoring for the final two rounds is listed below. Still 28 points available. Semi-finals.....................8 Points Championship...................12 Points 90··kolabear·aj/m·····Stanford·······Duke·············||·Stanford······· 90··Justdoit··········Stanford·······Duke·············||·Stanford······· 89··SCUFANTASTIC······Stanford·······Duke·············||·Stanford······· 84··Paltrysum·········Stanford·······Duke·············||·Stanford······· 82··karanicole········Stanford·······Wake·Forest······||·Stanford······· 80··darntaz···········--------·······Wake·Forest······||·--------······· 79··GoCourage·········Stanford·······Duke·············||·Duke··········· 79··cpthomas·rpi······Stanford·······Duke·············||·Duke··········· 79··4oclocksomewhere··Stanford·······Duke·············||·Duke··········· 78··socdad············Stanford·······Wake·Forest······||·Wake·Forest···· 78··BruBru············Stanford·······----·············||·----··········· 78··attackerp·········Stanford·······Wake·Forest······||·Stanford······· 75··bmoline···········Stanford·······Duke·············||·Stanford······· 74··DrGoat············Stanford·······Duke·············||·Stanford······· 73··UNC4EVER··········Stanford·······--------------···||·Stanford······· 73··theguru···········Stanford·······--------------···||·Stanford······· 73··SoccerHunter······Florida·St·····--------------···||·--------------· 73··Bradleyk15········Florida·St·····--------------···||·Florida·St····· 72··DemitriMaximoffX··Florida·St·····Duke·············||·Florida·St····· 71··richmondD15·······Stanford·······Wake·Forest······||·Stanford······· 71··crazyhorse········Florida·St·····Duke·············||·Florida·St····· 67··MRAD12············Florida·St·····----·············||·Florida·St····· 66··Norfolk···········Stanford·······--------------···||·Stanford······· 66··gogogo············Stanford·······--------------···||·--------------· 65··uscue13···········Stanford·······Duke·············||·Duke··········· 64··WPS_Movement······Stanford·······--------------···||·Stanford······· 64··nvsoccerfan·······--------------·Duke·············||·Duke··········· 63··hykos1045·········------------···--------------···||·--------------· 62··IceDog············--------·······--------·········||·--------······· 61··UncleFugly········Stanford·······--------·········||·Stanford······· 61··iknosocr··········----------·····--------------···||·--------------· 58··GopherBob·········Stanford·······--------·········||·Stanford······· 54··kickithard········Stanford·······--------------···||·Stanford······· 53··soccershins·······Stanford·······--------------···||·Stanford······· 48··Stinky·Shinguards·Stanford·······--------------···||·Stanford······· 42··NilamCA···········--------·······--------------···||·--------------·
While it's nice to see my name up there I have to say it's a bit of a fluke. If I knew Memphis would be hosting the 2nd and 3rd round games, the Massey/AJ conversion ratings would've tabbed Memphis over Florida State in the 3rd round, also precluding Florida St from being a quarterfinals pick. On the whole, however, I think the Massey ratings have done quite well, well enough to show that it can be good statistical tool for the Committee to use in forming the bracket. On the other hand, the RPI has done well enough, too, this time around, and the Committee, in its deviations from the RPI also looks reasonably justified in some of its decisions (in particular the decision to downgrade Memphis and raise Florida State's seeding to a #1 bracket-seed, although part of that is self-fulfilling. By elevating FSU to a #1 seed, the Committee gave them homefield advantage over Virginia in their quarterfinal matchup. Switch that around and put the game in Virginia and who knows?) Of course there were other questionable decisions by the Committee (such as the failure to seed Illinois and the over-seeding of the SEC teams) but some of these errors don't show up in the predictions once the bracket is set up. A good statistical system should do reasonably well at the prediction game but it's also important to keep in mind that prediction is not the main objective of a rating system being used to determine the bracket. With enough people taking their chances at predicting, there should be a fair number of people coming out ahead of the rating systems - because there are going to be upsets and winning a prediction contest involves taking some chances as to what the significant upsets are going to be.
The total point value is the left-most number. The round point value is the next number. The winning team is the final item on the line. 106·16·kolabear·aj/m······Stanford······· 106·16·Justdoit···········Stanford······· 105·16·SCUFANTASTIC·······Stanford······· 100·16·Paltrysum··········Stanford······· 95··16·GoCourage··········Duke··········· 95··16·cpthomas·rpi·······Duke··········· 95··16·4oclocksomewhere···Duke··········· 91··16·bmoline············Stanford······· 90··8··karanicole·········Stanford······· 90··16·DrGoat·············Stanford······· 86··8··socdad·············Wake·Forest···· 86··8··BruBru·············UCLA··········· 86··8··attackerp··········Stanford······· 81··8··UNC4EVER···········Stanford······· 81··8··theguru············Stanford······· 81··16·uscue13············Duke··········· 80··8··DemitriMaximoffX···Florida·St.···· 80··0··darntaz············Virginia······· 79··8··richmondD15········Stanford······· 79··8··crazyhorse·········Florida·St.···· 74··8··Norfolk············Stanford······· 74··8··gogogo·············North·Carolina· 73··0··SoccerHunter·······North·Carolina· 73··0··Bradleyk15·········Florida·St.···· 72··8··WPS_Movement·······Stanford······· 72··8··nvsoccerfan········Duke··········· 69··8··UncleFugly·········Stanford······· 67··0··MRAD12·············Florida·St.···· 66··8··GopherBob··········Stanford······· 63··0··hykos1045··········Oklahoma·St.··· 62··8··kickithard·········Stanford······· 62··0··IceDog·············Penn·St.······· 61··8··soccershins········Stanford······· 61··0··iknosocr···········Notre·Dame····· 56··8··Stinky·Shinguards··Stanford······· 42··0··NilamCA············UCLA···········
With a Dukevictory in the Championship, the RPI can still come out on top -- along with GoCourage and 4oclocksomewhere! RPI and the Massey ratings are both doing quite well - surprisingly well. I'm surprised that both systems have a chance to top the field. I wouldn't normally expect that. It does seem to show that these systems have some value in helping determine the bracket (although, of course, as most of you know, I believe the case for an Elo system is overall better than it is for RPI). From a fan fun and games standpoint, it does show you that you ignore an Elo system at some risk in a prediction contest -- although I think some risks are worth taking in order to come out on top. As a sidenote, adding up the "correct" predictions of all the games as played so far in the tournament, I counted 47 correct picks by the Massey/AJ system vs 42 for RPI, if I counted correctly. In addition there were 7 ties.
Ok, so I didn't pick any ACC teams to make the College Cup (differentiation strategic maneuver from everyone else backfired), and I also knew an ACC team wouldn't win the National Title, because I picked the championship winner (Stanford) to win. I had a horrible prediction tournament, but at least I got the champion right (ended with a positive note). I haven't gotten that right since the 2008 season (when I picked North Carolina then). I picked Stanford to win in 2009 (O'hara and Press), and I picked Stanford to win last year. About time Stanford finally came through. I'm not picking Stanford to win next year. Next year's early pick: UCLA (UCLA also will finally gettur done). West Coast again. The real girls play on the Westside.