MLS: Week 9

Discussion in 'Wagering' started by Wizardscharter, May 22, 2008.

  1. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO
    Oops. I didn't realize DC/TOR was a Wed. game. I would have taken TOR with the nice odds for the usual reasons, DC crap away and crap recently, TOR better of late and much better at home. Oh well. Probably tossed about 2.3 or so...

    San Jose vs. Houston 3.75 l 3.30 l 2.30
    HOU just won in Chicago. They can certainly do it in SJ. Champs revert back to being Champs.

    Columbus vs. New England 2.20 l 3.30 l 3.25
    One for the East lead. Two good teams with a great mix of vets and skilled kids. NE has played in and has proven to be the best in these contests for 4 straight years now. Both have beaten KC badly and HOU at home. NE earned a point vs NY, where CLB lost. Speaking for CLB other than being at home is that their level wained some last week (could be an indicator like the one I missed v CHI last week) and a return home with some, ahem, coaching should be the ticket to return to what they should be. The problem is NE might just be tougher away than at home. I like Ralston and Scheletto. Normally either is enough to turn a game. Here you have to find something else. For me that is speed, forwards, and intangibles. For every specific arguement you can apply it to both teams. CLB's scoring record is undoubtedly better. That is cancelled by NE's history of being able to rise to the level of a "big game" away as they have been there. When in doubt without clear reason I like to go with the home team. In this case the 3.25 is so overwhelming in an equal game that I have to take the shot. Another game where if the result doesn't happen I can't feel that bad about it.

    DC United vs. Toronto 2.30 l 3.25 l 3.20
    DC should recover form the prolonged embarassment of continued losses to beat TOR at home in RFK. The "value" is clearly on TOR as they have proven to be the better team so far. DC's issues stem from a vaccuous midfield and their willingness to alllow balls in from every direction. An old war axiom is, defending everything is to defend nothing. DC has had to worry about everything which created cracks which in turn created opposing angles to exploit. You can say this trend is over as DC only allowed 6 shots to TOR Wed. Unfortunately the first one scored and DC wasn't able to beat TOR with continued pressure that didn't result in offense. TOR didn't sit back as much as DC brought the game to them. DC should convert continued advantage at RFK so it should be different Sat. Should be. I do like road teams that demonstrate advantage to reverse a result at home in back to backs. I also like Dichio to play a lesser roll as he is both away and has scored recently. That has been a pattern. DC rolls.

    Dallas vs. Salt Lake 2.00 l 3.30 l 4.00
    DAL after being blown out at home and now hosting a crappy away team. LA still didn't stop Cooper, but you don't need to when you put up 5 away. RSL will not have that luxury. I see Toja having his way with the less experienced RSL youth. There is also that whole DAL having a new interim coach wake up call as well. I'm shocked the odds are 2.0. No way a team with both Cooper and Toja gets run twice straight at home by inferior opposition. Hoops by at least 2.

    Colorado vs. Chivas 2.00 l 3.30 l 3.75
    Big one out West. The standings will tell you COL is #1 and will have that confidence. CHV needs all 3 points to maintain contact with HOU. Despiration already. COL at home, huh? CHV has just 1 win in 7 away contests. CHV has 9 guys listed on the IL, 8 of those you likely have had on a fantasy team at some point. CHV is getting healthier, but the prescription for winning while coming to full fitness is not a huge square field at altitude. That's the prescription for getting your butt kicked late and then winning next week. With rare exception COL wins away and invents ways to lose away. Check the injury list and preview here as the price on CHV is way too big, but go with COL to hold at home against an improving CHV that still might win the West. Gomez, Cooke, and Cummings can all set up whoever and COL has guys that can strike from anywhere. The difficulty is, that's what happens so defenses can't focus on one tactic. COL would be the far and away West leader barring a few late goals to steal or entirely waste points. Those things disappear over time as kids grow up. The arguement for Chivas is if Razov shows up for a full :90. He rarely (outside trips to KC) if ever has carried a team by himself, especially away. He needs others to set him up.

    Los Angeles vs. Kansas City 3.20 l 3.30 l 3.55 odds
    KC is 5th of 6 consecutive road games. Hartman returns to LA. LA has 1 loss in the last 4 games at HDC, 1 loss in 6 overall, and they scored 5 last week. KC, by contrast has just 1 win in 6 games, one win in four road games, and has scored only 4 goals in its last 5 games! KC's issues are possession and defense. LA excells in these areas. LA's issue will be KC's ability to get wide. Klein was good enough to improve every posiition against DAL. That will be more difficult against KC. KC is healthy now and could earn a tie. For that to happen, KC will have to find an offense with Arnaud involved, earn sets, convert one, hide Marinelli's pitifully weak defense against a charged LA midfield, find another goal, and have Hartman stop the 15-20 shots they will allow. Could happen as KC is dangerous at times every game, but it's unlikely. The odds are cluelessly out of whack as you could bet all three results (at different books) and guarantee an arbitrage net positive. So, opinions vary. I think you have to take LA at home as locking up the 3.2 odds on a team that just put up 5 away is always a good idea. Even moreso against a struggling team crossing two time zones on an extended roadie. Win percentage on #5 of a roadie is about <10%.

    New York vs. Chicago 2.35 l 3.25 l 3.15
    CHI suddenly struggling as the schedule gets tougher. NY at home is 1 loss in 13 and 11 unbeaten. 11 unbeaten covers good teams as well as lesser lights. Having an Angel on your side can be enough to overcome any lesser devil (Blanco) and I'm all for the good over evil storyline, even if blatantly forced. :) More tangibly, Conway is playing out of his grape behind a great defense and CHI is a bit banged up with freakish injuries. Combine that with the 11 unbeaten and you should have enough to be confident of at least a NY asain bet. As a KC fan, I'm hoping for a draw somehow. With these defenses a scoreless draw is a posibility.

  2. RobertK

    RobertK Member

    Jan 10, 2007
    Keep up the good work. Like reading your takes. For me, I'm on Colorado at home and I'm going to keep riding the ATM machine that is Galaxy Over - even though odds makers have finally adjusted and bumped up the O/U line to 3. Galaxy's D, is just the proscription for the ailing KC offense, although if they remain in their funk, I still think the Galaxy has a chance to get the over on their own.
  3. Wizardscharter

    Wizardscharter New Member

    Jul 25, 2001
    Blue Springs, MO

    No lines this week. No time, so I'm out. Back next week.

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