The power rankings are so unbalanced that the rest of America might just get its wish - California could topple right into the sea. Top Dog: 1 (1). Los Angeles. Lapping the field. They can lose a game and will still be #1. They have still only given up two goals this year. Who's #2? 2 (2). Columbus. Scramble ball comes right to Rogers who connects for a big win. Then gets himself tossed for ripping his shirt off (2nd yellow). Way to go, Sherlock. If Chivas somehow gets points next week, all fingers are pointed at you. In any case, is anyone really impressed with Columbus right now? Well, besides the scoreboard? 3 (6). San Jose. On one hand you discount tonight's win due to Red Bull jet lag and Red Bull playing a man down for, like 75 minutes. OTOH, San Jose was better all night. What's more impressive is two of San Jose's better players - Opara and Alvarez DNP. San Jose faces the corpulant Revolution (away), Seattle (away) and Toronto (home) the next three games. 4 (4). Houston. Lost some gun or something to Dallas early in the week, then smoked CUSA twice in the first ten minutes today and shut CUSA out the entire game. Pat Onstead will be presented with a big bag of Viagra. 5 (5). Real Salt Lake. What takeaway does RSL get from beating up Philly? Schedule looks rather favorable moving forward -providing RSL can be competitive on the road. In the playoff hunt: 6 (11). Dallas. Six point weeks have a way of rocketing teams up in the standings. 7 (3). New York. NYRB can live off its body fat for a while. As bad as they were today, and as lucky as they were earlier in the season, they still look better than the vast majority of the Eastern Conference Pillow Fighters. 8 (8). Colorado. It might be worrisome that the Rapids haven't score in two games, but I think they will straighten that out. Jasmonna will disagree with me, but I still look at the Rapids results and see a real lack of shutouts of the other team. Trap game alert this coming week at DC. 9 (9). Seattle. I couldn't tell if Seattle's defense just quit or if they just aren't good enough. Seattle fans are so full of themselves and their full-on Carnival atmosphere. Its high-time they learned what being a soccer fan is all about - manic depression and the realization that sometimes it really sucks to be a fan of your team and MLS in general. Welcome home, Sounders fans. Schizo Teams That Deep-Down We Know Really Suck 10 (14). Toronto. Things are starting to turn around for Toronto . However, TFC has shown NO life on the road. 11 (13). Chivas USA. Crushed New England on the road, only to be stymied by the Over the Hill Gang tonight. The East Flat-Out Sucks Monkey Nuts 12 (10). Kansas City. Loss to DC is a real ass-scratcher. Have 1 point in last 5 games. 13 (7). Chicago. The ship is taking on water. Maybe this ranking is an over-reaction, but damn, things are not looking good. 14 (12). New England. For years, fans have ragged on New England for being such a damned minor league operation. Its actually gratifying to see them suck on the field. Maybe new the Krafts will realize something drastic needs to be done - for all facets of team operation. 15 (16). DC United. It is alive! 16 (15). Philadelphia. Finally get another home game, then its back on the road for three more pastings. This team has slid to comical badness.
Id bump KC and Chicago to the "Schizo Teams That Deep-Down We Know Really Suck" category, and put Chivas USA "in the Playoff Hunt" and ahead of Seattle at 9. Id also drop Houston down to 5 and drop the "in the Playoff Hunt", and move RSL ahead of San Jose, as I think RSLs schedule to date has been brutal. Actually, on further consideration, Id make a category for Seattle and Chivas USA in a category along the lines, "Magic 8-ball says... ask again later".
Chicago shouldn't be ranked that low. They will finish near the top of the east with Columbus and Toronto.
Fox Soccer shows Rogers will two yellows for the game. MLSSoccer shows the cards as you noted. So I guess the celebration wasn't quite so stupid after all (though I do question why a player would willingly give himself an auto yellow).
There is some major shake-ups in this week's power rankings thanks to the blow out comb and many teams have two games this week: 1 (1) LA Galaxy - Went to Seattle and Colorado, came away with 6 points. Made the Sounders look like a rec league team and ground out a hard match at altitude against Colorado. 2 (3) Columbus - A win is a win, even if it took an own goal and some extra time heroics to get it done. 3 (4) RSL - Showed the new team how it was done and just plain ole beat Philly the old fashion way, they earned it. ---------------------- 4 (9) San Jose - The big positive mover of the week. They did what you should do when you go up a man early in the game, they took the Red Bulls to the wood shed over and over again. 5 (5) Houston - A horrible game against FCD at home on Wednesday, then a stellar game away at Chivas on Saturday. Way to turn a week around and tread water in the power rankings. 6 (8) Colorado - Sure they lost against LA, but for much of the game they were competitive and if not for the ole finishing bug, could have been on top. Plus the teams that were above them last week just plain ole sucked. 7 (2) New York - Dropping five spots and not the big mover in the negative direction.. That's really the only positive you can take from the game against San Jose. They got beat like a rented mule, then burned at the stake for good measure. ---------------- 8 (10) Chivas - Went across the country and just shellacked a hapless New England. Then come home and drop an egg. They should really tread water in the power rankings, but two teams above them seriously sucked, so up they go. 9 (12) FCD - Even though they looked horrible, they got their first win of the season on Wednesday against rival Houston. Then in comes the hapless DCU to give them two in a row. Could the monkey be off their back and can they start the climb up the power rankings and league standings? 10 (7) Kansas City - A rough, rough game against DCU, means you drop in the rankings.Every team has a bad day, but come on.. DCU is barely a beer league team this year. -------------------- 11 (14) Toronto - I feel a bit dirty, but daaaaaaamn. 4 goals against Chicago. Could they finally be turning it around and showing some quality, or is Chicago just that off their mark right now? 12 (6) Seattle - Big mover in the negative direction and honestly, they could very well be lower if it weren't for some even worse play by the remaining teams in the rankings. The Sounders are a team in disarray and due to injuries and lack of movements in the offseason, they have no depth to fix what ails them. The one bright side in this steamer of a game was Colombian Miguel Montano. 13 (13) New England - Plain got beat by Chivas at home, but were competitive against Columbus means they tread water in the standings. Still lots to prove. 14 (11) Chicago - Went to Toronto and were blown away, both literally and figuratively.Will this team find their way and rise back towards the top of the standings, or continue the suck? One hopes they are too good to continue their current form. 15 (15) Philly - The champs showed them how you play in the big leagues, but they were still able to show flashes of skills. Not enough to move up in the rankings, but they are certainly looking better as the season goes on. 16 (16) Onalfo - Just when you think you can start referring to a team by their name, they go and show you just why their head coach should be round filed. The World Cup break and summer transfer window just can't come quickly enough for this team.
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 The Earthquakes got a huge boost from beating down RBNY (who previously held 2nd in the ratings). I think RBNY is really not that great of a team and we'll see them lose quite a bit more in the coming weeks. When that happens, The Earthquakes will suffer a bit of a rating kick from it, too. For now, though, they've got a slightly inflated spot at number 2. FC Dallas gets a huge move from 6 points in a week. KC falls a bit to their lose in DC. To KC's credit, it was their 3rd game in a week and they didn't have Davy. I think they've got what it takes to come back to the top half of the pack in the next few weeks, but only the results will tell. Code: 01 [--] 1.5749 Los Angeles Galaxy 02 [[COLOR="Green"]+3[/COLOR]] 1.2468 San Jose Earthquakes 03 [[COLOR="Green"]+1[/COLOR]] 1.2414 Columbus Crew 04 [[COLOR="Green"]+2[/COLOR]] 1.1793 Real Salt Lake 05 [[COLOR="Red"]-3[/COLOR]] 1.1312 New York Red Bulls 06 [[COLOR="Red"]-3[/COLOR]] 1.0844 Houston Dynamo 07 [[COLOR="Green"]+7[/COLOR]] 0.9878 FC Dallas 08 [[COLOR="Red"]-1[/COLOR]] 0.9785 Colorado Rapids 09 [--] 0.9778 Chivas USA 10 [[COLOR="Red"]-2[/COLOR]] 0.8795 Chicago Fire 11 [[COLOR="Green"]+2[/COLOR]] 0.8524 Toronto FC 12 [[COLOR="Red"]-1[/COLOR]] 0.8294 Seattle Sounders FC 13 [[COLOR="Red"]-3[/COLOR]] 0.8066 Kansas City Wizards 14 [[COLOR="Red"]-2[/COLOR]] 0.7822 New England Revolution 15 [--] 0.6197 Philadelphia Union 16 [--] 0.4207 DC United
Well, last year I liked to run a table of objective numbers and compare it to my eyeball test. The table ranked the teams according to PTS, PPG, Form in the last 5 games, and 3/0 ranking (which is basically home points dropped subtracted from road points gained) and then took the average of the three. The table was kind of crude. And it had the tendency to skew rankings one way or another when 1 particular factor was really tight. It also didn't recognize when there was a large gap between one team, or a group of teams, and another. All intervals are treated equal. But still, it was kind of fun to compare it to the eyeball test. This year, I'm taking out PTS and putting in Goal Difference. Now that all the teams have played five games, I thought I'd put mine out. Eyeball Test: 1. LA. Is anyone even close? Nope. ---------------------------------------- 2. Crew. Some fits and starts, but still unbeaten. 3. SJ. Looking good after a tough start. 4. RSL. Tough start, recovering nicely. 5. NY. Tough loss, and have done a great job at home. 6. Houston. Fighting through injuries and losses admirably. 7. FC Dallas. Tough start, played well w/out results. Getting them now. Shea at LW. -------------------------------------------------------- 8. Seattle. Would have had them higher, but got pasted by LA. 9. TFC. DeRo playing out of his mind, starting to look up. 10. Colorado. CM looks tough. But sacrificed offense to get it. 11. KC. Good start, but struggling now. Still have some GIH. 12. Chivas. Struggled at the beginning, but a bit better of late. 13. Chicago. Still wildly inconsistent. -------------------------------------- 14. New England. Ravaged by injuries. 15. DC. Also injury ravaged, got on the board last week. 16. Philadelphia. Is it me, or do they do something dumb every game. Losing Le Toux hurt. And the table says: Rank,Team,PTS/GP,PPG,H/A,3/0,Form/PTS,GD,Ranks(PPG,3/0,Form,GD), Avg 1) LAG, 22/8, 2.750, 4/4, (0,10)= +10, WWWDW/13, 13, (1,1,1,1) = 1 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2) CLB, 11/5, 2.200, 3/2, (0,2) = +2, WDWDW/11, 4, (2, 3, 3, 3.5) = 2.875 --------------------------------------------------------- 3) SJE, 12/6, 2.000, 4/2, (-3,+3) = 0, WWLWW/12, 4, (4, 7, 2, 3.5) = 4.125 4) NYRB, 15/7, 2.143, 3/4, (0,6) = +6, LWWWL/9, 0, (3, 2, 5, 8.5) = 4.625 --------------------------------------------------------------- 5) RSL, 10/7, 1.429, 3/4, (-2,3) = +1, WWLLD/7, 4, (7, 4.5, 9, 3.5) = 6 6) HOU, 13/8, 1.625, 5/3, (-6,4) = -2, WLWLW/9, 4, (5, 11.5, 5, 3.5) = 6.25 7) COL, 10/7, 1.429, 3/4, (-5,6) = +1, LLWWL/6, 1, (7, 4.5, 11, 6.5) = 7.25 8) FCD, 10/7, 1.429, 4/3, (-6,4) = -2, WWDDL/8, 1, (7, 11.5, 7, 6.5) = 8 9) TFC, 9/7, 1.286, 3/4, (0,0) = 0, WLWLW/9, -2, (9, 7, 5, 12) = 8.25 ----------------------------------------------- 10) CHI, 8/7, 1.143, 3/4, (-5,4) = -1, LDWWL/7, -1, (12, 9, 9, 10.5) = 10.125 11) CHV, 10/8, 1.250, 4/4, (-6,4) = -2, LWDWL/7, -1, (10, 11.5, 9, 10.5) = 10.25 12) KCW, 7/6, 1.167, 3/3, (-2,0) = -2, LLDLW/4, 0, (11, 11.5, 13, 8.5) = 11 ------------------------------------------------- 13) PHI, 3/6, 0.500, 1/5, (0,0) = 0, LLLLW/3, -8, (15, 7, 14.5, 15) = 12.875 14) SEA, 9/8, 1.125, 5/3, (-8,2) = -6, LDLDW/5, -4, (13, 15, 12, 13.5) = 13.375 15) NER, 7/8, 0.875, 4/4, (-8,3) = -5, LLDLL/1, -4, (14, 14, 16, 13.5) = 14.375 16) DCU, 3/7, 0.429, 4/3, (-9,0) = -9, LWLLL/3, -11, (16, 16, 14.5, 16) = 15.625 The table notes that Philly has only played one home game (thus the good 3/0) and notes Seattle has dropped a ton of points at home.
3/0 isnt the best measure of the expected home and away differential. MLS averages are I believe about 1.65 ppg per home game, and about 1.05 per road game. Thats not exact, but its close. 1. LAG +11.2 (1.4) 2 NYRB +5.85 (.84) 3 CLB +3.95 (.79) 4 SJE +3.3 (.55) 5. Hou +1.6 (.2) 6t. RSL +0.85 (.12) 6t. Col +0.85 (.12) 8. FCD +0.25 (.04) 9. TFC -0.15 (-.02) 10. CHV -0.8 (-.1) 11t. KCW -1.1 (-.16) 12. CHI -1.15 (-.16) 13. SEA -2.4 (-.3) 14. NER -3.8 (-.48) 15. PHI -3.9 (-.65) 16. DCU -6.75 (-.96) The biggest thing is it doesn't over reward bad teams that have played a lot of home games (Philly should have at least 1 point on the road right now, the fact they dont is embarrassing), or punish good teams that played a lot of home games (San Jose, 9 points out of 4 at home is doing well). Edit: decided to just throw in the roughly .05 per game at home and on the road that I was rounding away to make the numbers a little more accurate. This is from memory, so scaryice may correct me, but thats the MLS averages as I recall. (also put the per game numbers in parenthesis)
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but I don't think Toronto will finish near the top of the east.
Considering how poorly the rest of the East is playing this season, I think this year is Toronto's best chance to finish near the top so far.
kinda early to delineate the extreme parity right now, but one thing is clear to me. the bottom half the standings/rankings is littered with bad eastern conference teams. i mean the third place team in the east would be tied for last place in the west. its still way to early to making any type of predictions for playoffs, but if this were to keep up we could potentially see 6 teams from the west make the playoffs and honestly i wouldnt have any problem with that. the east just looks weak, real weak right now. my out of my ass rankings: 1 LA-clearly the best, wayyyy out in front 2 Columbus- having only played 5 games, still getting more than 2 ppg 3 Houston- rolling along steady and true 4 San Jose- maybe not this good, but they have beaten teams they should beat if they are going to be good 5 RSL- had a BRUTAL early schedule, starting to catch up with more favorable matchups 6t Dallas- meh, in the thick of parity 6t Col- see above, dallas, parity 6t chivas- see above, dallas/colorado, parity 9 Red Bulls- over rated, i have watched most of their games and they have squeaked by some of the worst teams in MLS and then got curb stomped by san jose. 10 toronto- up and down team, gets absolutely worked one week and then works a team the next 11 seattle- bad, probably worse than this ranking, bad offense and mediocre defense 12t chicago- up and down 12t KC- looked good early, looks like crap now 14 new england- has given up a shitload of goals and generally looked bad while doing it 15 philly- a combination of stupid mistakes, being an expansion team and brutal...BRUTAL travel schedule is rapidly killing them. 16 DCU- horrific. -11 GD already? wow.
1 LA Galaxy 2 Columbus 3 New York 4 San Jose 5 Houston 6a Colorado (2-2-0) (road record as tie breaker) 6b Dallas (1-1-1) 6c Salt Lake (1-3-0) 9 Toronto 10 Chivas 11 Kansas City 12 Chicago 13 Seattle 14 New England 15 Philadelphia 16 D.C.
Ill go with my adjusted expected points per game ranking: 1. LA Galaxy 1.092 2. Columbus Crew 0.605 3. New York Red Bull 0.502 4. San Jose Earthquakes 0.443 5. Houston Dynamo 0.295 6. Real Salt Lake 0.249 7. Colorado Rapids 0.083 8. Chivas USA 0.050 9. FC Dallas -0.059 10. Seattle -0.133 11. Toronto FC -0.191 12. Chicago -0.319 13. New England Revolution -0.378 14. Kansas City Wizards -0.440 15. Philidelphia Union -0.664 16. DC United -1.188
You are missing the point, I'm not trying to measure (or predict) the expected results vs. actual, all I'm trying to do is measure how each team is performing relative to an objective standard, and relative to each other. That's a lot easier with with 3/0 (or 3/1) than any other standard with fractions or decimals in it. Also, a 3/0 pace will net a team 45 points. If you figure 42/43 for a playoff spot, it is pretty easy to eyeball your team's playoff pace with a team's 3/0 rating. If you start falling down into -8 territory, you know you are going to have start winning on the road, or you are a dead duck (as the road is the only place you can make up points). Of course, I'm sure there is an equivalent in expected vs. actual results, but I don't know what it is. Plus the 40 point barrier is somewhat familiar as the relegation number (close to 45). Lastly, the 3/0 separates home/away performance, while the expected/actual can hide it (a team can have a good number while playing a lot of home games and dropping points, like Seattle). See the difference where Seattle and Philly are ranked. Yes, Philly has performed poorly on the road (5 games), but won at home. Seattle has stunk on the road and dropped more points at home than any other team save DC. Yet they are in the middle of the pack because they have played a ton of home games. They should be lower. I can tell you right now, the Sounders better start winning on the road (and holding serve at home) or they are cooked. The whole point of the 3/0 is to correct for the irregularities in the schedule. If MLS kept the number of games the same and alternated home and away dates, one could basically just look at the table. 3/0 tends to correct for this, I don't think the actual/expected does to the same extent (look at Philly and Seattle).
Your missing the point. 3/0 doesn't correct the irregularities, it just amplifies them the wrong direction. A team that went 5-0 at home to start the season would be ranked exactly as high as a team that went 0-5 on the road. The problem is that losing every single road game is the mark of a very bad team, and winning every single home game is the mark of a very good team. If you want to correct the deviations of the schedule, you have to actually assign a value to home and road games that make sense. That on average is about 1.65 and 1.05 respectively as I recall.
