Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 09/02. Code: Rank Team ELO+ Rank Team Points 1 RSL 118 1 RSL 57.8 2 LAG 116 2 LAG 56.8 3 SEA 113 3 SEA 55.5 4 POR 109 4 MTL 54.6 5 SKC 107 5 SKC 52.9 6 COL 107 6 NYR 52.4 7 MTL 106 7 POR 51.8 8 NYR 106 8 HOU 50.9 9 HOU 105 9 PHI 48.7 10 CHI 103 10 NER 48.4 11 PHI 102 11 COL 48.2 12 NER 100 12 DAL 47.4 13 DAL 100 13 CHI 47.2 14 VAN 100 14 VAN 46.0 15 SJE 98 15 SJE 43.3 16 CLB 86 16 CLB 37.7 17 TOR 81 17 TOR 30.6 18 CHV 80 18 CHV 30.1 19 DCU 63 19 DCU 20.6 The average number of games played per team is now 26.1 (K=7.66), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.645 (H=29). Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 09/02. Code: Rank Team Past Rank Team Future Rank Team Overall 1 POR 104.5 1 VAN 114.5 1 CHV 104.2 2 CHV 104.3 2 COL 109.3 2 SJE 102.6 3 LAG 104.0 3 CHV 103.9 3 DAL 102.4 4 SJE 103.5 4 DAL 103.9 4 VAN 102.4 5 DAL 102.0 5 CLB 103.5 5 COL 101.8 6 SEA 101.9 6 CHI 102.6 6 POR 101.6 7 DCU 101.7 7 MTL 102.4 7 SEA 101.3 8 RSL 101.0 8 RSL 100.0 8 DCU 101.1 9 COL 99.9 9 TOR 99.9 9 LAG 101.0 10 HOU 99.7 10 SEA 99.7 10 RSL 100.8 11 TOR 98.8 11 PHI 99.4 11 CLB 99.9 12 CLB 98.7 12 DCU 99.3 12 TOR 99.0 13 VAN 98.7 13 SJE 99.1 13 MTL 98.1 14 NER 97.8 14 NYR 96.9 14 CHI 97.7 15 SKC 97.7 15 NER 95.1 15 PHI 97.7 16 PHI 97.2 16 SKC 93.4 16 HOU 97.6 17 NYR 96.7 17 POR 92.1 17 NER 97.2 18 MTL 96.6 18 HOU 91.9 18 NYR 96.8 19 CHI 96.0 19 LAG 91.4 19 SKC 96.8
LA has surged to the top of the standings with RSL in close tow, but RSL is still leading by half a point on the end of season prediction. New York is starting to plummet, despite a home win against DCU this weekend, and Portland's 1-3-3 record in the last seven games has them treading water. Not a lot else for me to say here.
Numbers seem a bit more reasonable this week. Colorado still holding on to their 2 spot, but maybe not for long. Seattle and LA both climbing, Salt Lake City retakes #1, Portland in free fall after only 6 points from 8 games. New England perhaps still a little high?
New York and Montreal with some huge jumps this week. Might come back later and write more, but I gotta scram.
Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 09/09. Code: Rank Team ELO+ Rank Team Points 1 SEA 117 1 SEA 57.8 2 RSL 116 2 MTL 57.5 3 LAG 112 3 RSL 57.4 4 POR 111 4 NYR 55.1 5 COL 111 5 SKC 54.2 6 MTL 110 6 LAG 54.2 7 NYR 110 7 POR 52.8 8 SKC 109 8 COL 50.7 9 DAL 103 9 DAL 48.7 10 SJE 102 10 PHI 47.5 11 CHI 100 11 HOU 47.0 12 PHI 99 12 NER 46.4 13 HOU 97 13 CHI 45.9 14 NER 96 14 SJE 45.0 15 VAN 96 15 VAN 44.4 16 CLB 86 16 CLB 38.7 17 CHV 82 17 CHV 30.8 18 TOR 81 18 TOR 30.1 19 DCU 62 19 DCU 20.1 The average number of games played per team is now 27.3 (K=7.34), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.649 (H=30). Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 09/09. Code: Rank Team Past Rank Team Future Rank Team Overall 1 CHV 103.8 1 VAN 115.4 1 CHV 104.5 2 LAG 103.4 2 DAL 110.3 2 VAN 103.3 3 POR 103.0 3 SEA 108.9 3 SJE 102.8 4 SJE 102.6 4 CHV 108.2 4 DAL 102.7 5 DCU 102.0 5 COL 104.2 5 COL 102.0 6 COL 101.5 6 SJE 103.3 6 POR 102.0 7 RSL 101.5 7 CLB 102.3 7 LAG 101.9 8 DAL 100.7 8 RSL 101.8 8 RSL 101.5 9 VAN 100.1 9 CHI 98.6 9 SEA 101.4 10 TOR 100.0 10 POR 98.0 10 DCU 100.5 11 HOU 99.7 11 NER 97.3 11 CLB 99.4 12 SEA 99.2 12 SKC 97.3 12 TOR 98.8 13 CLB 98.8 13 LAG 95.9 13 HOU 97.9 14 PHI 98.3 14 MTL 95.9 14 PHI 97.6 15 MTL 97.9 15 DCU 94.9 15 MTL 97.4 16 NYR 97.4 16 PHI 94.7 16 CHI 97.3 17 CHI 96.9 17 TOR 94.3 17 NER 96.9 18 NER 96.7 18 HOU 91.1 18 SKC 96.1 19 SKC 95.8 19 NYR 89.0 19 NYR 95.9
Numbers shaking out well this week, with the possible exception of New York. Impossible team to figure out, seems like they're playing well and then lose to Columbus, draw with Philly, lose to Chivas, then bounce right back with some wins. Still sandwhiched between New England and Chicago, but those two teams are trending down and NY is, once more, on the rise, so who knows what'll happen against Toronto next week. Kansas City back to winning ways, Colorado stops their slide and Seattle and Montreal jumping up the table.
Here's my updated numbers. Reminder, the first column accounts for current points earned, and future schedule. The second column is the expected performance of the team over the course of a full season against an average MLS opponent. Code: Tm HFA EAP RSL 57.6 60.4 SEA 57.0 54.0 MON 57.0 53.8 NYR 54.8 53.3 LAG 54.3 55.3 SKC 54.2 58.7 POR 53.2 58.0 COL 50.5 51.9 FCD 49.1 46.8 PHI 47.3 45.7 NER 47.3 53.7 HOU 46.9 42.7 VAN 45.8 47.6 CHI 45.3 42.0 SJE 44.3 36.9 CLB 39.3 40.3 CHV 31.4 29.7 TOR 30.7 31.7 DCU 21.5 21.7 Using the first column, the expected playoff teams are as follows: RSL, SEA, LAG, POR, COL MON, NYR, SKC, PHI, NER I see nothing too far out about any of this. Houston is just barely on the outside looking in, but is close enough that it really is a tossup between them and PHI/NER. In case it interests people, here's the probabilities the first column model comes up with for this week's games. Code: Home Away HW% Tie% AW% TOR CHI 45.4 26.5 28.0 SEA RSL 48.4 24.5 27.1 MON CLB 59.3 21.7 19.0 NYR TOR 62.2 21.7 16.2 PHI HOU 52.8 24.5 22.7 CHI NER 45.0 26.2 28.8 COL FCD 54.2 24.0 21.7 CHV POR 36.8 26.3 37.0 SJE VAN 46.5 25.4 28.2 DCU LAG 33.1 27.4 39.5 Interestingly, but only slightly surprisingly, the model predicts two road teams as being at least slight favorites to win. That almost never happens in the model, because HFA is rather strong. Considering the hosting and visiting teams in each case, it isn't overly surprising, but I found it interesting.
Took a minute to see what happened if I averaged all the rankings folks are generating here, and I've got to say, it looks pretty good. Let's just call em BS Rankings.
Is there any other kind? What (if any) significance should we attach to the fact that three of the four sources for BS Rankings are SKC supporters?
Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 09/15. Code: Rank Team ELO+ Rank Team Points 1 SEA 119 1 SEA 59.2 2 RSL 114 2 RSL 56.4 3 POR 112 3 NYR 55.7 4 NYR 111 4 MTL 54.7 5 COL 111 5 SKC 53.9 6 LAG 110 6 LAG 53.4 7 SKC 106 7 POR 52.5 8 MTL 104 8 COL 51.7 9 HOU 104 9 HOU 49.9 10 CHI 104 10 DAL 47.5 11 SJE 102 11 CHI 47.4 12 DAL 100 12 PHI 45.5 13 VAN 98 13 NER 45.3 14 NER 96 14 VAN 44.9 15 PHI 94 15 SJE 44.2 16 CLB 90 16 CLB 41.4 17 CHV 81 17 CHV 30.3 18 TOR 79 18 TOR 29.0 19 DCU 65 19 DCU 20.3 The average number of games played per team is now 28.3 (K=7.06), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.647 (H=29). Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 09/15. Code: Rank Team Past Rank Team Future Rank Team Overall 1 LAG 103.0 1 CHV 114.2 1 CHV 104.4 2 POR 103.0 2 VAN 111.8 2 VAN 102.9 3 RSL 103.0 3 COL 111.6 3 DAL 102.8 4 CHV 102.8 4 SEA 111.6 4 SJE 102.6 5 DAL 101.9 5 SJE 109.0 5 LAG 101.9 6 SJE 101.5 6 DAL 106.7 6 COL 101.8 7 DCU 101.2 7 MTL 102.0 7 POR 101.7 8 VAN 101.0 8 CHI 101.2 8 RSL 101.5 9 HOU 100.6 9 NYR 98.8 9 SEA 101.1 10 TOR 100.6 10 PHI 97.8 10 DCU 100.5 11 CLB 100.1 11 SKC 97.3 11 CLB 99.3 12 COL 100.1 12 DCU 97.2 12 TOR 98.9 13 SEA 98.4 13 LAG 96.5 13 MTL 98.0 14 NER 98.0 14 POR 95.8 14 PHI 97.9 15 PHI 98.0 15 CLB 94.6 15 HOU 97.7 16 MTL 97.0 16 NER 94.0 16 NER 97.3 17 CHI 96.3 17 RSL 92.8 17 CHI 97.2 18 SKC 96.3 18 TOR 88.8 18 SKC 96.5 19 NYR 95.5 19 HOU 84.2 19 NYR 96.0
A bit of a crazy week. Seattle not quite at the top yet, but Montreal and RSL trending down while Seattle trending up, so unless they really stumble, next week will likely see them at the top. Chivas playing better than half of the teams in the East right now, despite having a lock on last place in the West... New York moving up quick as well. Looking forward to the BS rankings this week.
MLS Power Rankings, Week 29: Seattle Sounders' winning streak fuels rise to the top http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/artic...eattle-sounders-winning-streak-fuels-rise-top
Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ ratings and points predictions for 09/22. Code: Rank Team ELO+ Rank Team Points 1 SEA 120 1 SEA 59.2 2 POR 114 2 NYR 56.8 3 NYR 112 3 SKC 55.8 4 SKC 110 4 POR 53.9 5 LAG 109 5 RSL 53.9 6 COL 109 6 LAG 52.6 7 RSL 107 7 MTL 52.5 8 SJE 106 8 HOU 50.7 9 HOU 104 9 COL 50.4 10 VAN 103 10 VAN 47.5 11 MTL 100 11 SJE 46.8 12 CHI 100 12 DAL 46.7 13 DAL 99 13 NER 46.1 14 NER 97 14 CHI 46.0 15 PHI 94 15 PHI 45.4 16 CLB 93 16 CLB 42.9 17 CHV 79 17 CHV 29.6 18 TOR 77 18 TOR 27.6 19 DCU 67 19 DCU 20.0 The average number of games played per team is now 29.3 (K=6.83), and so far home teams have a winning percentage of 0.646 (H=29). Here are the 2013 MLS ELO+ strength of schedule ratings for 09/22. Code: Rank Team Past Rank Team Future Rank Team Overall 1 CHV 104.0 1 CHV 109.0 1 CHV 104.6 2 DAL 103.4 2 COL 108.0 2 DAL 102.8 3 LAG 102.6 3 SEA 107.7 3 VAN 102.4 4 SJE 102.6 4 MTL 106.5 4 SJE 102.2 5 RSL 102.5 5 NER 106.2 5 RSL 102.1 6 POR 102.1 6 VAN 106.0 6 COL 101.9 7 DCU 102.0 7 NYR 105.3 7 LAG 101.9 8 VAN 101.8 8 CLB 100.8 8 POR 101.5 9 COL 101.1 9 DAL 99.4 9 SEA 100.9 10 TOR 100.4 10 SJE 99.0 10 DCU 100.4 11 SEA 99.5 11 RSL 98.8 11 TOR 99.2 12 HOU 98.9 12 PHI 98.6 12 CLB 99.1 13 CLB 98.8 13 LAG 98.0 13 MTL 98.4 14 CHI 97.8 14 POR 97.8 14 PHI 97.9 15 PHI 97.8 15 CHI 96.8 15 HOU 97.8 16 MTL 96.6 16 SKC 96.2 16 CHI 97.6 17 SKC 96.1 17 HOU 91.4 17 NER 97.3 18 NER 95.7 18 DCU 91.2 18 SKC 96.1 19 NYR 94.7 19 TOR 90.3 19 NYR 95.9
New numbers. Montreal just about out of the first spot, but neither LA or Seattle managed to unseat. New York once again on the rise, and Kansas City putting together a good run when it counts. Columbus with two big wins now making some waves as well.
Here's my updated rankings. HFA is a projected standing for the end of the season including the remaining schedule. The EAP is the strength of the team, given in points per season against average opponents. The model used is a poisson prediction model, and predicts the probability of W,D,L in each game, which are then multiplied by the point totals for each result. For EAP it is calcualated against a league average opponent for one neutral site game, and multiplied by 34. For HFA, it is done for each of the remaining games, and summed up, and added to the current standings. There is enough error in these calculations that the values should be interpreted as approximately +/- 1pt. Code: Tm HFA EAP SEA 58.5 55.2 NYR 56.9 55.2 SKC 55.7 59.1 RSL 54.2 57.3 POR 54.0 58.1 LAG 53.0 54.7 MON 52.8 50.1 COL 50.7 51.2 HOU 50.3 47.3 VAN 48.0 49.9 FCD 47.2 45.1 NER 46.8 53.1 SJE 46.1 38.2 CHI 45.5 41.0 PHI 45.5 44.9 CLB 43.0 44.0 CHV 30.2 28.3 TOR 28.0 30.8 DCU 20.7 22.9 East playoff teams: NYR SKC MON HOU NER West playoff teams: SEA RSL POR LAG COL This puts the west cutoff at ~50 pts and the east cutoff at ~46. The picture in the west looks to be clearing up a little bit. It is by no means set, but the teams not currently in the playoffs will need a good run to make it in. The picture in the east is still about as clear as mud. Seattle is currently projected for the supporters shield, but in order to win it, they will definitely have to make good on their games in hand.
Please do I just got twitcy. New (extra screamy) baby has me rushing to get everything done the moment I have a free second...
Seattle keeps the lead despite New York climbing to the top of the MLS standings. Seattle has moved a whopping +54 in the last month, they are in some great form right now and are still predicted to comfortably (well, three points is pretty comfortable considering the amount of parity we are witnessing, right?) win the SS. New York leap frogs KC for predicted East Conference finish, but it's by about three hundredths of a point. Interestingly, DC, Toronto, and Chivas are all within two points of each other clear down at the bottom of the ratings. Philadelphia is trying desperately to catch them at -55 for the month, but still has 113 points to go before they get an invite to join D.C. Chivas Canada.
Much like Star Wars, let's revise and revisit. New BS rankings, a few small changes. SKC up to #2. NY and RSL in a virtual tie, RSL with the very slight edge on SD variation.