MLS East vs. West 2012

Seattle is on pace to end up with 74 points on the year, 7 more than the Supporter Shield winning Galaxy had last year. I would hardly classify that as an "average team". Now, I'll be the first to say it's still early and I'm not overly optimistic about the game on Wednesday. But, using the data we currently have, I have a difficult time classifying teams beyond 1 standard deviation as "average". And, once again, two of the teams you list have a lower ppg average than Seattle (only San Jose's is better).

Also, your classroom analogy is somewhat lacking, in my opinion. Your essential argument is that if a student does better than 95% of his/her peers, that student is still average because they did not do 97.5% better (what I believe constitutes 2 standard deviations - once again, correct me if I am wrong).

My issue is with how you define average (not whether Seattle should be considered average or not - they're just the example I'm using to make my point). But I guess to each their own.

I don't want to say anything mean, so I won't say anything about the new BigSoccer changes. However, I do want to make sure nothing changed with the charts. So here goes:

Code:

2012  HOME  HOME  HOME  AWAY  AWAY  AWAY  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS
2012  WINS  TIES  LOSS  WINS  TIES  LOSS  G.A.  G.S.  G.D.  TGP.  PTS.  GPG.  PPG.  GAPG  GLFT
EAST  8.00  3.00  6.00  6.00  1.00  16.0  54.0  42.0  -12.  40.0  46.0  1.05  1.15  1.35  50.0
WEST  16.0  1.00  6.00  6.00  3.00  8.00  42.0  54.0  12.0  40.0  70.0  1.35  1.75  1.05  50.0
 
CHIC  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  4.00  1.00  -3.0  2.00  0.00  0.50  0.00  2.00  7.00
CLBS  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  3.00  0.00  -3.0  2.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  1.50  7.00
DCUD  1.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  9.00  8.00  -1.0  5.00  5.00  1.60  1.00  1.80  4.00
HOUS  0.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  2.00  0.00  3.00  6.00  0.67  2.00  0.67  6.00
MONT  1.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  3.00  5.00  3.00  -2.0  4.00  3.00  0.75  0.75  1.25  5.00
NERV  2.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  4.00  6.00  2.00  5.00  9.00  1.20  1.80  0.80  4.00
NYRB  1.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  7.00  7.00  0.00  4.00  4.00  1.75  1.00  1.75  5.00
PHIL  0.00  1.00  2.00  1.00  0.00  1.00  7.00  4.00  -3.0  5.00  4.00  0.80  0.80  1.40  4.00
SPKC  3.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  1.00  3.00  8.00  5.00  6.00  15.0  1.33  2.50  0.38  3.00
TORN  0.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  10.0  3.00  -7.0  4.00  0.00  0.50  0.00  2.50  5.00
 
CHVS  0.00  0.00  3.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  3.00  1.00  -2.0  4.00  3.00  0.25  0.75  0.75  6.00
COLO  2.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  7.00  8.00  1.00  5.00  9.00  1.60  1.80  1.40  5.00
FCDS  3.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  8.00  7.00  -1.0  5.00  9.00  1.40  1.80  1.60  5.00
LAGA  1.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  5.00  4.00  -1.0  3.00  3.00  1.33  1.00  1.67  7.00
PORT  2.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  4.00  4.00  0.00  4.00  6.00  1.00  1.50  1.00  6.00
RSLK  3.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  3.00  6.00  3.00  4.00  9.00  1.50  2.25  0.75  6.00
SEAT  2.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  7.00  5.00  4.00  10.0  1.40  2.50  0.40  6.00
SJEQ  2.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  1.00  0.00  7.00  13.0  6.00  6.00  13.0  2.17  2.17  1.17  4.00
VANC  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  0.00  3.00  4.00  1.00  5.00  8.00  0.80  1.60  0.60  5.00

That looks okay - but hideous at the same time. Will be playing around with fonts. The chart, btw, is after Wednesday's games.

Results for week 9:

NER 2-1 COR
SJE 5-3 DCU
CHV 1-2 CHI
SEA 1-0 PHI
LAG 0-1 NYR
RSL 2-1 NER
POR 0-0 CLB


Even split this week with each conference going 3-1-3

Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned.

Through Week 9, West is 24-5-16. We have reached the half-way point of the inter-conference schedule.

EAST
SKC 5-0-1
NER 3-0-3
NYR 2-1-2
HOU 2-0-1
DCU 1-2-2
PHI 1-1-4
CHI 1-0-2
MON 1-0-3
CLB 0-1-2
TFC 0-0-4


WEST
SEA 4-1-0
SJE 4-1-1
RSL 4-0-1
COR 3-0-2
FCD 3-0-2
VAN 2-2-1
POR 2-1-2
LAG 1-0-3
CHV 1-0-4


Week 10 Inter-Conference schedule:

CHI v. RSL
MON v. LAG
NER v. VAN
CLB v. FCD

4 more home games for the East this week.

Big week this past week, as newtex pointed out. While we are only about 1/3 of the way through the season, we are already halfway through the interconference matchups. This means the last half of the season will be intra-conference heavy. That fact gives teams like Kansas City (5-0-1), Seattle (4-1-0), and Salt Lake (4-0-1) an extra advantage over teams like Toronto (0-0-4). That's obvious. Less obvious is that while the West has racked up an impressive wins column against Eastern teams at home (18-2-8), they are much less impressive (6-3-8) at home. Moreover, the West has an 11-game home advantage, and with an advantage of 24 points, the lead is somewhat tenuous.

Code:

2012  HOME  HOME  HOME  AWAY  AWAY  AWAY  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS
2012  WINS  TIES  LOSS  WINS  TIES  LOSS  G.A.  G.S.  G.D.  TGP.  PTS.  GPG.  PPG.  GAPG  GLFT
EAST  8.00  3.00  6.00  8.00  2.00  18.0  58.0  46.0  -12.  45.0  53.0  1.02  1.18  1.29  45.0
WEST  18.0  2.00  8.00  6.00  3.00  8.00  46.0  58.0  12.0  45.0  77.0  1.29  1.71  1.02  45.0
 
CHIC  0.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  0.00  1.00  5.00  3.00  -2.0  3.00  3.00  1.00  1.00  1.67  6.00
CLBS  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  3.00  0.00  -3.0  3.00  1.00  0.00  0.33  1.00  6.00
DCUD  1.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  9.00  8.00  -1.0  5.00  5.00  1.60  1.00  1.80  4.00
HOUS  0.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  2.00  0.00  3.00  6.00  0.67  2.00  0.67  6.00
MONT  1.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  3.00  5.00  3.00  -2.0  4.00  3.00  0.75  0.75  1.25  5.00
NERV  2.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  3.00  6.00  7.00  1.00  6.00  9.00  1.17  1.50  1.00  3.00
NYRB  1.00  1.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  7.00  8.00  1.00  5.00  7.00  1.60  1.40  1.40  4.00
PHIL  0.00  1.00  2.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  8.00  4.00  -4.0  6.00  4.00  0.67  0.67  1.33  3.00
SPKC  3.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  1.00  3.00  8.00  5.00  6.00  15.0  1.33  2.50  0.38  3.00
TORN  0.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  10.0  3.00  -7.0  4.00  0.00  0.50  0.00  2.50  5.00
 
CHVS  0.00  0.00  4.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  5.00  2.00  -3.0  5.00  3.00  0.40  0.60  1.00  5.00
COLO  2.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  7.00  8.00  1.00  5.00  9.00  1.60  1.80  1.40  5.00
FCDS  3.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  8.00  7.00  -1.0  5.00  9.00  1.40  1.80  1.60  5.00
LAGA  1.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  6.00  4.00  -2.0  4.00  3.00  1.00  0.75  1.50  6.00
PORT  2.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  4.00  4.00  0.00  5.00  7.00  0.80  1.40  0.80  5.00
RSLK  4.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  4.00  8.00  4.00  5.00  12.0  1.60  2.40  0.80  5.00
SEAT  3.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  8.00  6.00  5.00  13.0  1.60  2.60  0.40  5.00
SJEQ  2.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  1.00  0.00  7.00  13.0  6.00  6.00  13.0  2.17  2.17  1.17  4.00
VANC  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  0.00  3.00  4.00  1.00  5.00  8.00  0.80  1.60  0.60  5.00

So now that we are at the halfway spot in the season, let's do some general descriptives of each Eastern team, from top to bottom. Next week we will do descriptives of the Western teams:

Chicago: Has only played 3 games, and only one of them was at home. Not much to say - 3 games doesn't make a season.

Columbus: Same situation as Chicago, but they didn't manage to win in Portland so they have 1 point from 3 inter-conference matches rather than Chicago's 3.

DC United: 1-2-2 record, three games played away. Interestingly, DC is tied for first in goals scored on this chart, but is 2nd to last in terms of goals allowed; hence their middling position in the inter-conference matchup.

Houston: Have played zero home games, and have a 2-0-1 away record. Unlike DCU, they have scored and allowed a grand total of 4 goals.

Montreal: One home win, three away losses. Pretty standard stuff for an expansion team. Their recent form suggests that future inter-conference games might be much more competitive, but the stats don't lie - expect them to get disproportionately more Ts and Ls in their remaining 5 inter-conference games than Ws.

Revolution: 3-0-3 record. All nine of New England's points have come from inter-conference matchups; they are the third-best Eastern team in terms of PPG on this chart but 6th in the Eastern standings.

Red Bulls: With a 2-1-2 record, they are just about as average as can be. With a goal differential of +1, however, they are doing much better than most (i.e. all but 3) Eastern teams.

Philadelphia: With a 1-1-4 record, it's not hard to see why these guys aren't going to make it to the playoffs. With the exception of our boys from Canada, they have the worst goal differential in the conference. Moreover, their PPG of 0.67 is third-worst in the conference, only ahead of the whipping boys and Columbus.

Sporting: Their overall record is 7-0-2, and their inter-conference record is 5-0-1. Not hard to see where those points are coming from. To be honest, I'm willing to write off Montreal as a fluke and keep rooting for them to be the Supporters Shield Champions. Tied for first in the conference in inter-conference goals scored, and only 3 goals allowed...'nuff said.

Toronto! Another week, another loss. While eventually they will get some points up on the board, it's not likely to occur against Western teams. Four losses, ten goals allowed to two goals scored...I'm just as excited as you to see how far this goes.

Fittingly, we have another team to add to our "Not Gonna Make It" list: Philadelphia. 7 points from 8 games. Why Philadelphia and not Columbus, Portland, and Houston? Well, I'm not ready to give up on Columbus, Portland has scored 9 goals compared to Philly's 5, and Houston has two games in hand on Philadelphia. So that's why. For all intents and purposes, none of those teams has a great chance, but Philadelphia joins Toronto in being a guarantee. In order to claw their way back, they'd need not just to win a lot but for other teams to do disproportionately poorly.

As newtex said, more games next week! Stay tuned!

I assume the home/away balance between the East and West will even out at the end of the season?

That's the opinion I got from reading the beginning-of-season press release although I never proofed it. Anybody up for gaming the schedule to find out?

Each conference will have 45 home inter-conference games and 45 away inter-conference games.

Teams in the West will each play 5 home and 5 away. That's one game against every East team.

Teams in the East will play one game against every West team broken down like this:
5 teams in the East will play 5 home and 4 away.
(CHI, CLB, NER, NYR, TFC)
5 teams in the East will play 4 home and 5 away.
(DCU, HOU, MON, PHI, SKC)

Thanks! So the entire Eastern Conference will be "equal" in terms of games played, since (5*5)+(5*4) = 45, or half of our 90.

On a more qualitative note, the five Eastern teams with the extra home game are more likely the five teams who are going to need it.

Results for week 10:


CHI 0-0 RSL
MON 1-1 LAG
NER 4-1 VAN
CLB 2-1 FCD

The East gets two wins and two ties this week. That narrows the gap a bit.

Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned.

Through Week 910 West is 24-7-18. The West has now won slightly less than half the games.

EAST
SKC 5-0-1
NER 4-0-3
NYR 2-1-2
HOU 2-0-1
DCU 1-2-2
CHI 1-1-2
CLB 1-1-2
MON 1-1-3
PHI 1-1-4
TFC 0-0-4

WEST
SEA 4-1-0
SJE 4-1-1
RSL 4-1-1
COR 3-0-2
FCD 3-0-3
VAN 2-2-2
POR 2-1-2
LAG 1-1-3
CHV 1-0-4


Week 11 Inter-Conference schedule:

HOU v. POR
DCU v. COR
VAN v. TFC
FCD v. PHI
COR v. SKC
SJE v. CLB
POR v. CHI

7 games this week with most played in the West.

BTW, an interesting overall table right now if you go by PPG. Especially when you consider that slightly over half (49 of 96) the games that have been played have been inter-conference games. And that 51 of the 96 games have been West home games.

EAST and WEST combined table by overall PPG:

1. SEA 2.20
2. SKC 2.10
3. SJE 2.09
4. NYR 2.00
5. RSL 2.00
6. VAN 1.70
7. CHI 1.67
8. COR 1.50
9. DCU 1.50
10. HOU 1.38
----------------
11. CLB 1.22
12. NER 1.20
13. LAG 1.10
14. MON 1.09
15. FCD 1.00
16. CHV 1.00
17. POR 0.89
18. PHI 0.78
19. TFC 0.00

I'm not very good with math but I was still able to figure out Toronto's PPG without using a calculator.

Code:

2012  HOME  HOME  HOME  AWAY  AWAY  AWAY  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS
2012  WINS  TIES  LOSS  WINS  TIES  LOSS  G.A.  G.S.  G.D.  TGP.  PTS.  GPG.  PPG.  GAPG  GLFT
EAST  10.0  5.00  6.00  8.00  2.00  18.0  61.0  53.0  -8.0  49.0  61.0  1.08  1.18  1.24  41.0
WEST  18.0  2.00  8.00  6.00  5.00  10.0  53.0  61.0  8.00  49.0  79.0  1.24  1.61  1.08  41.0
 
CHIC  0.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  0.00  1.00  5.00  3.00  -2.0  4.00  4.00  0.75  1.00  1.25  5.00
CLBS  1.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  4.00  2.00  -2.0  4.00  4.00  0.50  1.00  1.00  5.00
DCUD  1.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  9.00  8.00  -1.0  5.00  5.00  1.60  1.00  1.80  4.00
HOUS  0.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  2.00  0.00  3.00  6.00  0.67  2.00  0.67  6.00
MONT  1.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  3.00  6.00  4.00  -2.0  5.00  4.00  0.67  0.80  1.20  4.00
NERV  3.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  3.00  7.00  11.0  4.00  7.00  12.0  1.57  1.71  1.00  2.00
NYRB  1.00  1.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  7.00  8.00  1.00  5.00  7.00  1.60  1.40  1.40  4.00
PHIL  0.00  1.00  2.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  8.00  4.00  -4.0  6.00  4.00  0.67  0.67  1.33  3.00
SPKC  3.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  1.00  3.00  8.00  5.00  6.00  15.0  1.33  2.50  0.38  3.00
TORN  0.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  10.0  3.00  -7.0  4.00  0.00  0.50  0.00  2.50  5.00
 
CHVS  0.00  0.00  4.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  5.00  2.00  -3.0  5.00  3.00  0.40  0.60  1.00  5.00
COLO  2.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  7.00  8.00  1.00  5.00  9.00  1.60  1.80  1.40  5.00
FCDS  3.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  3.00  10.0  8.00  -2.0  6.00  9.00  1.33  1.50  1.67  4.00
LAGA  1.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  7.00  5.00  -2.0  5.00  4.00  1.00  0.80  1.40  5.00
PORT  2.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  4.00  4.00  0.00  5.00  7.00  0.80  1.40  0.80  5.00
RSLK  4.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  4.00  8.00  4.00  6.00  13.0  1.33  2.17  0.67  4.00
SEAT  3.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  8.00  6.00  5.00  13.0  1.60  2.60  0.40  5.00
SJEQ  2.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  1.00  0.00  7.00  13.0  6.00  6.00  13.0  2.17  2.17  1.17  4.00
VANC  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  7.00  5.00  -2.0  6.00  8.00  0.83  1.33  1.17  4.00

Four games and the East is catching up in the unlikeliest places...Columbus and New England leading the charge? Whoda thunk. To add to newtex's really good addition, I'd just like to say that while all ten of the overall-standings teams have PPG above the WTL average of 1.33, in inter-conference standings only four Eastern teams (Houston, New England, New York, and Sporting KC) and SEVEN Western teams (everybody but Chivas and LA) hit at or above what you'd expect from perfect parity. So in other words, all of the top ten teams in the league are earning their points off of the East (Kansas City the obvious exception). This is pretty well shown by the bottom two teams (Philly and Whipping Boys).

So this week we do the Western Conference analysis:

Chivas - last in the conference, worst in the conference's standings on this thread. More importantly, while they have more overall PPG than Philly, they have a lower inter-conference PPG score than Philly. Since the Western teams play one more inter-conference game, this could be the difference between the two when deciding who's second-worst. They have allowed a whopping 4 home losses to Eastern teams...meaning that there is hope for Tor just kidding not really.

Colorado - Pretty average for the conference, pretty average on most stats. +1 GD, 15 goals scored/allowed, 9 points from 5 games. Not much to say aside from they will be in the playoff battle at the end.

FC Dallas - The only guarantees in this season are that Toronto will lose everywhere and Dallas will lose all of their away matches against Eastern teams and win all of their home matches against Eastern teams. Can get get a tie somewhere with 4 games left?

LA - Didn't they win the Supporters Shield or the Cup last year? Didn't that happen? 0.80 PPG, 5 goals in 5 games...don't they have a bunch of strikers?

Portland - Put a ********ing bird on it, people. 4 goals scored and 4 goals allowed in 5 games? Their GPG and GAPG together couldn't match the golazos of Dallas or San Jose!

Salt Lake - I know they aren't a bad team, but they are one of four Western teams without any away inter-conference wins (LA, FCD, Portland). That's not hot company, so Salt Lake needs to figure out why they win their home games but not their road ones. And when they do that, tell the rest of the soccer world

Seattle - still the best PPG on this table, and having allowed only 2 goals there's very little doubt in my mind they will win the Brummie Supporters Shield but still fail to get the real one. Still, only halfway through their inter-conference season.

San Jose - on the other side of the spectrum, San Jose shows why I watch their games replay - 20 goals scored/allowed just in inter-conference play?!?!?! WOW!!! If only they had the highest PPG...unfortunately tied for 3rd in that list (behind Seattle and SKC). On the other hand, they will be a contender for the SS and the Cup, so there's that.

Vancouver - the exception that proves the rule: Canada's got a long way to go. For those of you keeping score, everyone who picked Vancouver to get all six categories can shout BINGO! Out of six games, they have had exactly 1 home win, 1 home tie, 1 home loss, 1 away win, 1 away tie, 1 away loss. You can't buy that kind of distribution. However, with 1.70 overall PPG and 1.33 Brummie/newtex PPG, they will almost certainly make the playoffs and lose 1/3 of their playoff games.

That's the West! Stay tuned for next week when we dissect the Central Division.

well, i mean, they've only played 2 inter conference away games (@KC and @Chi), lost to KC 1-0 and tied Chi 0-0. they certainly arent struggling on the road either with a 3-2-2 record with wins at LA, Sea and Por, ties at FCD and Chi and losses to SJ and KC. they're easily on pace for their best road record in franchise history. right now the only team in the league i would say with a better away form is San Jose.

On the other hand, that 1-0 loss to SKC was what I figured would be a preview of a high-ranking playoff game (i.e. the Cup game itself) so RSL flubbing it against them could be a fluke, could be indicative of a problem. Who knows...like you said, they only have 2 games.

Hey so I am moving today which means screw you guys, I am going home. But I will put this together for you, with some commentary.

Code:

2012  HOME  HOME  HOME  AWAY  AWAY  AWAY  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS
2012  WINS  TIES  LOSS  WINS  TIES  LOSS  G.A.  G.S.  G.D.  TGP.  PTS.  GPG.  PPG.  GAPG  GLFT
EAST  11.0  6.00  6.00  8.00  5.00  19.0  67.0  60.0  -7.0  55.0  68.0  1.09  1.24  1.22  35.0
WEST  19.0  5.00  8.00  6.00  6.00  11.0  60.0  67.0  7.00  55.0  86.0  1.22  1.56  1.09  35.0
 
CHIC  0.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  7.00  4.00  -3.0  5.00  4.00  0.80  0.80  1.40  4.00
CLBS  1.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  1.00  5.00  3.00  -2.0  5.00  5.00  0.60  1.00  1.00  4.00
DCUD  2.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  9.00  10.0  1.00  6.00  8.00  1.67  1.33  1.50  3.00
HOUS  0.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  2.00  0.00  4.00  7.00  0.50  1.75  0.50  5.00
MONT  1.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  3.00  6.00  4.00  -2.0  5.00  4.00  0.67  0.80  1.20  4.00
NERV  3.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  3.00  7.00  11.0  4.00  7.00  12.0  1.57  1.71  1.00  2.00
NYRB  1.00  1.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  7.00  8.00  1.00  5.00  7.00  1.60  1.40  1.40  4.00
PHIL  0.00  1.00  2.00  1.00  1.00  2.00  9.00  5.00  -4.0  7.00  5.00  0.71  0.71  1.29  2.00
SPKC  3.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  1.00  1.00  5.00  10.0  5.00  7.00  16.0  1.43  2.29  0.71  2.00
TORN  0.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  10.0  3.00  -7.0  4.00  0.00  0.50  0.00  2.50  5.00
 
CHVS  0.00  0.00  4.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  5.00  2.00  -3.0  5.00  3.00  0.40  0.60  1.00  5.00
COLO  2.00  1.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  11.0  10.0  -1.0  6.00  10.0  1.67  1.67  1.83  4.00
FCDS  3.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  3.00  11.0  9.00  -2.0  7.00  10.0  1.29  1.43  1.57  3.00
LAGA  1.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  7.00  5.00  -2.0  5.00  4.00  1.00  0.80  1.40  5.00
PORT  3.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  5.00  6.00  1.00  7.00  11.0  0.71  1.57  0.86  3.00
RSLK  4.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  4.00  8.00  4.00  6.00  13.0  1.33  2.17  0.67  4.00
SEAT  3.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  8.00  6.00  5.00  13.0  1.60  2.60  0.40  5.00
SJEQ  2.00  1.00  1.00  2.00  1.00  0.00  8.00  14.0  6.00  7.00  14.0  2.00  2.00  1.14  3.00
VANC  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  7.00  5.00  -2.0  6.00  8.00  0.83  1.33  1.17  4.00

There have been a lot of ties this week; both conferences each won a game, and 5 games were ties. DCU beat Colorado by a bigger goal differential than Portland's defeat of Chicago, so the East technically moved closer. Not by much, though. Very nailbiting games to watch, but analyzing them on a chart is not as fun.

So, let's talk Toronto. The probability that a team in a league of even parity will win, tie, or loss each individual game is 0.333, or 1/3. In a league of perfect parity, the previous result should not cloud future results, so each future game should also be a 1/3 split for each option. Think of it as a coin with three faces.

So let's say Toronto is our team, and MLS is our league of perfect parity. The probability that Toronto would lose its first 9 games to the season would be 0.000046411, or 0.00464%, or less than one hundredth of one percent. This places it squarely outside the bounds of predictable behavior. Toronto is an outlier. However, Toronto is in the weaker of the two conferences, is hamstrung somewhat by nationality rules (a certain number of Canadian players rule is still valid, right?) and by poor past performance. So let's improve their odds of losing to 50% of each game. That gives us 0.001953125, or 0.195%. Again, this strays beyond the bounds of predictable probability. At this point we must assume Toronto will break the curse and start winning league games sometime. They cannot possibly continue losing much longer before this leaves the realm of empiricism and into the realm of divinity and mythology.

As for the rest of the teams, these draws basically keep a steady field available. Six teams have more than 20 points overall, leaving all of a 7-point spread between 7th and 17th. Again, it would appear that the West is able to pick up more points from Eastern teams than vice versa, so Eastern teams trying to make the playoffs need not worry so much as Western teams. A Western team struggling against Eastern teams (Chivas, LA, and Vancouver come to mind) will do worse than a Western team thriving against Eastern teams (take your pick of the Cascadia quad).

Stay tuned for more games and stuff.

So -- I get your point on the improbability of a team losing nine games in a row. No argument there.

However, the above statement is not true.

Current distribution of results in MLS is 50% home wins, 20% draws, 30% road wins. If all teams had records close to that, then you would have a league of perfect parity.

A 50% win rate for home teams has been steady for years.

In fact, you could have a league of perfect parity with a results distribution of 100% home wins.

Perfect parity is not the same as no home field advantage -- which is what was said. Parity and home field advantage can both exist.

Just being nit-picky.

So the probability of TFC's 0-9-0 start, given 5 home games and 4 road games is
0.000152.

Quite true. I was including no home advantage with perfect parity - not a great assumption.

Results for week 11:

HOU 0-0 POR
DCU 2-0 COR
FCD 1-1 PHI
COR 2-2 SKC
SJE 1-1 CLB
POR 2-1 CHI

So 1-4-1 for each conference this week. I had mistakenly included the Canadian Championship first leg in my original schedule.

Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned.

Through Week 11 the West is 25-11-19.

EAST
SKC 5-1-1
NER 4-0-3
DCU 2-2-2
HOU 2-1-1
NYR 2-1-2
CLB 1-2-2
PHI 1-2-4
CHI 1-1-3
MON 1-1-3
TFC 0-0-4

WEST
SJE 4-2-1
SEA 4-1-0
RSL 4-1-1
POR 3-2-2
COR 3-1-3
FCD 3-1-3
VAN 2-2-2
LAG 1-1-3
CHV 1-0-4

Week 12 Inter-Conference schedule:

NYR v. CHV
CHI v. FCD
SEA v. CLB
HOU v. LAG
COR v. MON
SKC v. SJE

The East gets four of the six games this week at home. Those six games will put us over 2/3 of the way through the inter-conference schedule.

EAST and WEST combined table by overall PPG through week 11:

1. SEA 2.09
2. NYR 2.08
3. SJE 2.00
4. SKC 2.00
5. RSL 2.00
6. DCU 1.71
7. VAN 1.64
8. CHI 1.50
9. COR 1.33
10. HOU 1.30
--------------------------
11. CLB 1.20
12. NER 1.18
13. CHV 1.18
14. POR 1.09
15. LAG 1.00
16. MON 1.00
17. FCD 1.00
18. PHI 0.80
19.TFC 0.00

Still pretty even most of the way down the table. It will be interesting to see how this changes once intra-conference play almost completely takes over.

That's pretty remarkable how the top10 split so perfectly (granted you did lay it out with the 3 tied on 2 ppg in that manner, but still).

Code:

2012  HOME  HOME  HOME  AWAY  AWAY  AWAY  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS
2012  WINS  TIES  LOSS  WINS  TIES  LOSS  G.A.  G.S.  G.D.  TGP.  PTS.  GPG.  PPG.  GAPG  GLFT
EAST  12.0  7.00  6.00  9.00  5.00  19.0  69.0  65.0  -4.0  58.0  75.0  1.12  1.29  1.19  32.0
WEST  19.0  5.00  9.00  6.00  7.00  12.0  65.0  69.0  4.00  58.0  87.0  1.19  1.50  1.12  32.0
 
CHIC  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  8.00  6.00  -2.0  6.00  7.00  1.00  1.16  1.33  3.00
CLBS  1.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  2.00  1.00  5.00  5.00  0.00  6.00  8.00  0.83  1.33  0.83  3.00
DCUD  2.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  9.00  10.0  1.00  6.00  8.00  1.67  1.33  1.50  3.00
HOUS  0.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  2.00  0.00  4.00  7.00  0.50  1.75  0.50  5.00
MONT  1.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  3.00  6.00  4.00  -2.0  5.00  4.00  0.67  0.80  1.20  4.00
NERV  3.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  3.00  7.00  11.0  4.00  7.00  12.0  1.57  1.71  1.00  2.00
NYRB  1.00  2.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  8.00  9.00  1.00  6.00  8.00  1.50  1.33  1.33  3.00
PHIL  0.00  1.00  2.00  1.00  1.00  2.00  9.00  5.00  -4.0  7.00  5.00  0.71  0.71  1.29  2.00
SPKC  3.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  1.00  1.00  5.00  10.0  5.00  7.00  16.0  1.43  2.29  0.71  2.00
TORN  0.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  10.0  3.00  -7.0  4.00  0.00  0.50  0.00  2.50  5.00
 
CHVS  0.00  0.00  4.00  1.00  1.00  0.00  6.00  3.00  -3.0  6.00  4.00  0.50  0.67  1.00  4.00
COLO  2.00  1.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  11.0  10.0  -1.0  6.00  10.0  1.67  1.67  1.83  4.00
FCDS  3.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  4.00  13.0  10.0  -3.0  8.00  10.0  1.25  1.25  1.63  2.00
LAGA  1.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  7.00  5.00  -2.0  5.00  4.00  1.00  0.80  1.40  5.00
PORT  3.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  5.00  6.00  1.00  7.00  11.0  0.71  1.57  0.86  3.00
RSLK  4.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  4.00  8.00  4.00  6.00  13.0  1.33  2.17  0.67  4.00
SEAT  3.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  0.00  4.00  8.00  4.00  6.00  13.0  1.33  2.17  0.50  4.00
SJEQ  2.00  1.00  1.00  2.00  1.00  0.00  8.00  14.0  6.00  7.00  14.0  2.00  2.00  1.14  3.00
VANC  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  7.00  5.00  -2.0  6.00  8.00  0.83  1.33  1.17  4.00

Hey team. Doing a quick midweek update (and by midweek, I mean Saturday). With three games out of six in, the West collected 1 point of a possible 9. Chicago and Columbus defeated Dallas and Seattle, respectively, for the East to catch up.

Since this thread seems to attract a healthy number of Seattle fans, I wanted to take this opportunity to inform y'all that when you are down two goals at home to a team with 12 injured players, having your thug go studs-up on one of our rookies still isn't a very nice thing to do.

Nevertheless, the overall inter-conference GPG, PPG, and GAPG have never been closer this season. All of 0.07 separates the two on goals per game, and less than three-tenths on points per game. The remaining three games include LA away at Houston and Kansas City hosting a Wondo-less-ski (LOL! ) San Jose, I can easily see the East getting another 6-7 out of 9 (Montreal might not do so hot at Colorado, but who knows) to put them within ten points of the West.

Results for week 12:

NYR 1-1 CHV
CHI 2-1 FCD
SEA 0-2 CLB
HOU 1-0 LAG
COR 3-2 MON
SKC 2-1 SJE

The East goes 4-1-1 this week highlighted by a 3-1-0 record at home while going 1-0-1 on the road.

Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned.

Through Week 12 the West is 26-12-23. That is 61 games played out of 90 total.

EAST
SKC 6-1-1
NER 4-0-3
HOU 3-1-1
DCU 2-2-2
NYR 2-2-2
CLB 2-2-2
CHI 2-1-3
PHI 1-2-4
MON 1-1-4
TFC 0-0-4

WEST
SJE 4-2-2
SEA 4-1-1
RSL 4-1-1
COR 4-1-3
POR 3-2-2
FCD 3-1-4
VAN 2-2-2
LAG 1-1-4
CHV 1-1-4

Week 13 Inter-Conference schedule:

None.

EAST and WEST combined table by overall PPG through week 12:

1. SKC 2.08
2. RSL 2.07
3. NYR 2.00
4. SJE 1.93
5. SEA 1.85
6. DCU 1.80
7. VAN 1.58
8. CHI 1.50
9. CLB 1.50
10. COR 1.46
----------------
11. HOU 1.45
12. CHV 1.15
13. NER 1.08
14. POR 1.08
15. MON 0.92
16. FCD 0.87
17. LAG 0.85
18. PHI 0.72
19.TFC 0.30

Here's the end of week chart, and as always thanks to newtex for all his work:

Code:

2012  HOME  HOME  HOME  AWAY  AWAY  AWAY  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS  TOTS
2012  WINS  TIES  LOSS  WINS  TIES  LOSS  G.A.  G.S.  G.D.  TGP.  PTS.  GPG.  PPG.  GAPG  GLFT
EAST  14.0  7.00  6.00  9.00  5.00  20.0  74.0  71.0  -3.0  61.0  81.0  1.16  1.33  1.21  29.0
WEST  20.0  5.00  9.00  6.00  7.00  14.0  71.0  74.0  3.00  61.0  90.0  1.21  1.48  1.16  29.0
 
CHIC  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  8.00  6.00  -2.0  6.00  7.00  1.00  1.16  1.33  3.00
CLBS  1.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  2.00  1.00  5.00  5.00  0.00  6.00  8.00  0.83  1.33  0.83  3.00
DCUD  2.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  9.00  10.0  1.00  6.00  8.00  1.67  1.33  1.50  3.00
HOUS  1.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  1.00  3.00  4.00  1.00  5.00  10.0  0.80  2.00  0.60  4.00
MONT  1.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  4.00  9.00  6.00  -3.0  6.00  4.00  1.00  0.67  1.50  3.00
NERV  3.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  3.00  7.00  11.0  4.00  7.00  12.0  1.57  1.71  1.00  2.00
NYRB  1.00  2.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  8.00  9.00  1.00  6.00  8.00  1.50  1.33  1.33  3.00
PHIL  0.00  1.00  2.00  1.00  1.00  2.00  9.00  5.00  -4.0  7.00  5.00  0.71  0.71  1.29  2.00
SPKC  4.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  1.00  1.00  6.00  12.0  6.00  8.00  19.0  1.50  2.38  0.75  1.00
TORN  0.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  10.0  3.00  -7.0  4.00  0.00  0.50  0.00  2.50  5.00
 
CHVS  0.00  0.00  4.00  1.00  1.00  0.00  6.00  3.00  -3.0  6.00  4.00  0.50  0.67  1.00  4.00
COLO  3.00  1.00  0.00  1.00  0.00  2.00  13.0  13.0  0.00  7.00  13.0  1.86  1.86  1.86  3.00
FCDS  3.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  4.00  13.0  10.0  -3.0  8.00  10.0  1.25  1.25  1.63  2.00
LAGA  1.00  0.00  2.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  9.00  6.00  -3.0  6.00  4.00  1.00  0.67  1.50  4.00
PORT  3.00  1.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  2.00  5.00  6.00  1.00  7.00  11.0  0.71  1.57  0.86  3.00
RSLK  4.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  4.00  8.00  4.00  6.00  13.0  1.33  2.17  0.67  4.00
SEAT  3.00  0.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  0.00  4.00  8.00  4.00  6.00  13.0  1.33  2.17  0.50  4.00
SJEQ  2.00  1.00  1.00  2.00  1.00  1.00  10.0  15.0  5.00  8.00  14.0  1.88  1.75  1.25  2.00
VANC  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  1.00  7.00  5.00  -2.0  6.00  8.00  0.83  1.33  1.17  4.00

For this week, we had six games. The East won the overwhelming majority of them, and as such have moved the goals-differential margin to 3 and the PPG to 0.05. However, I should caution this as Toronto still has 5 games left to play, and even with their win (all good things must come to an end, I suppose) they are still heavy favorites to lose most of these games. The East has closed the gap but will need to pour it on to account for the deficiency of their bad team.

The West, for what it's worth, still only has two teams (Chivas and LA) below the 1.00 PPG rate, and three (include FC Dallas) below the parity 1.33 rate. The East has four teams below 1.33 (Chicago, Montreal, Philly, and Toronto) with Columbus, DC, and NYRB at 1.33. So while the topline figures may look good, there are only a few teams carrying water for the East while the Western Conference seems to be more consistently good.

However, the West's strength lays largely in its 7-game home game advantage. Right now the West has 6 more home wins than the East, so if the East is able to win those games, with their current advantage in away performance (the East is 0.94 PPG away, the West is 0.85 PPG away), the East would be ahead considerably.

Random stat of the week: Colorado has an identical GPG, PPG, and GAPG rating. It's a high number, so bully for them.

Final stat: the inter-conference Goal Differential Per Game for Each team, ranked from high to low and colored by conference to follow the newtex standard, with their overall standing position in parentheses:

Seattle: 0.83 (6)
Kansas City: 0.75 (5)
Salt Lake: 0.66 (1)
San Jose: 0.63 (T2)
NYRB: 0.57 (4)
Houston: 0.20 (11)
DC United: 0.17 (T2)
Revolution: 0.17 (T13)
Colorado: 0.00 (T7)
Columbus: 0.00 (T9)
-------------------------
Portland: -0.15 (T13)
Chicago: -0.33 (T9)
Vancouver: -0.34 (T7)
FC Dallas: -0.38 (T13)
Chivas: -0.50 (12)
LA Galaxy: -0.50 (17)
Montreal: -0.50 (16)
Philadelphia: -0.58 (18)
Toronto: -2.00 (19)

I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say that if you keep a positive ledger in inter-conference games in terms of goals scored/allowed, your chances of being in the playoffs increase. Right now, 8 teams have positive GD, two are neutral, and nine are negative. Of those nine negative, only Chicago right now would make it to the playoffs, and of those eight positive, only Houston and New England would not. Even though they are less than 1/3 of all games played, inter-conference games appear to be a deciding factor right now for two major reasons:

1) Most teams have not even come close to the half-way mark in terms of games played, but virtually all teams Toronto aside have hit the half-way mark for inter-conference games played. The final half of the season will be an intra-conference brawl for everybody.

2) The conferences are not equal. Western teams are pretty reliably scavenging points from Eastern teams, especially in Western stadia. While the West's away record is worse, there's no doubt from anybody reading here that Salt Lake, Seattle, San Jose, Vancouver, Colorado, or Portland could get an away win or two before the season ends.

Next week, stay tuned for no new games! Thanks to all for reading!

Well Colorado only has one more road game in the East, @toronto in July. The only game Colorado has ever played in Toronto that they didn't lose was MLS Cup 2010.