MLS Cup Playoffs Predictions by Regular Season Series: How accurate are they?

MLS Cup Playoffs 2012 Predictions by Regular Season Series
- revised after Conf. Final 1st leg (Nov-11).

Quick Notes:

• Houston are back in the driver's seat again...
• Prediction Accuracy so far: still 50.00%.

#	Series	Predicted Winners	Actual Winners	Hit/Miss?
1	East KO	Chicago	Houston	Miss
2	West KO	L.A.	L.A	Hit
3	East Conf. Semi #1	Houston	Houston	Hit
4	East Conf. Semi #2	D.C.	D.C.	Hit
5	West Conf. Semi #1	S.J.	L.A.	Miss
6	West Conf. Semi #2	RSL.	Seattle	Miss
7	East Conf. Final	Houston	Houston leading 3-1 after 1st leg	Hit for now?
8	West Conf. Final	Seattle	L.A. leading 3-0 after 1st leg	Miss for now?
	Total			4 Hits? / 8 Series (50.00%)

Eastern Conference:

K.O.:

4.Chicago vs. 5.Houston (Regular Season Series: Chicago 1-1, 3-1 Houston @ home; Actual: Houston advanced 2-0.)

Conference Semis:

1.Kansas City vs. 4.Houston (Regular Season Series: 1-2, 0-0, 1-1; Actual: Houston advanced on aggregate goals 2-1)

2.D.C. United vs. 3.New York (Regular Season Series: 4-1, 2-3, 2-2; Actual: D.C. advanced on aggregate goals 2-1)

Conference Final:

2.D.C. United vs. 4.Houston (Regular Season Series: 3-2, 0-1, 0-4; Actual: Houston leading 3-1 after 1st leg.)

Western Conference:

K.O.:

4.L.A. vs. 5.Vancouver (Regular Season Series: L.A. 3-0, 2-0 V.W. @ home; Actual: L.A. advanced 2-1.)

Conference Semis:

1.San Jose vs. 4.L.A. (Regular Season Series: 3-2, 4-3, 2-2; Actual: L.A. advanced on aggregate goals 3-2)

2.R.S.L. vs. 3.Seattle (Regular Season Series: 1-0, 0-0, 0-0; Actual: Seattle advanced on aggregate goals 1-0)

Conference Final:

2.Seattle vs. 4.L.A. (Regular Season Series: 2-0, 4-0, 0-1; Actual: L.A. leading 3-0 after 1st leg.)

MLS Cup Final 2012:

(SS#8) L.A. vs. (SS#9) Houston (Regular Season Series: 1-2; Houston win MLS Cup!!)

The other "aftermath" of Nov-11 conference final results:

1. 2012 final may well see the rematch of 2011 final at the same venue (HDC). While back-to-back cup final rematch have happened once before in 2006-07, at least they were at different venues (2006: PHP, 2007: RFK).

2. 2012 final could set a new record on lowest seeding for the finalists:

Seeding Criteria	L.A.	Houston	"Sum of Seedings"	Remarks
By Conference	W4	E5	9	Beats the previous record of "8", set in 2010 by Dallas (W3) & Colorado (W5, or "E3").
By SS Standings	#8	#9	17	Beats the previous record of "11", also set in 2010 by Dallas (#4) & Colorado (#7).

3. Should Houston win it all, they will become the lowest-seeded champion ever:

Seeding Criteria	Houston	Remarks
By Conference	E5	Beats the previous record of "4", set in 2005 by L.A. (W4) & 2009 by RSL (W5, or "E4").
By SS Standings	#9	Beats the previous record of "#8", also set in 2005 by L.A. (#8) and 2009 by RSL (#8).

4. L.A. now have 102 playoff goals after the 3-0 win over Seattle on 11/11.
D.C. now take sole possession of 2nd place at 61 goals, with the lone goal scored in the 1-3 loss to Houston on the same day.

5. A curious pattern is developing for Seattle in the playoffs:

Season	Playoffs Outcome	Remarks
2009	Made 1st playoffs	Conf. Semi: vs. Houston 0-0, 0-1.
2010	Score 1st playoff goal	Conf. Semi: vs. L.A. 0-1, 1-2.
2011	Won 1st playoff game	Conf. Semi: vs. RSL 0-3, 2-0.
2012	Won 1st playoff series	Conf. Semi: vs RSL 0-0, 1-0; Conf. Final: vs. L.A. 0-3, x-x?
2013	(Maybe) Win 1st playoff conference championship?
2014	(Maybe) Win 1st MLS Cup?

The s-o-s (season-on-season) improvements are still quite remarkable, nevertheless..

MLS Cup Playoffs 2012 Predictions by Regular Season Series
- revised after Conf. Final 2nd leg (Nov-18).

Quick Notes:

• Houston remain the "favorites" now...
• Prediction Accuracy so far: still 50.00%.

#	Series	Predicted Winners	Actual Winners	Hit/Miss?
1	East KO	Chicago	Houston	Miss
2	West KO	L.A.	L.A	Hit
3	East Conf. Semi #1	Houston	Houston	Hit
4	East Conf. Semi #2	D.C.	D.C.	Hit
5	West Conf. Semi #1	S.J.	L.A.	Miss
6	West Conf. Semi #2	RSL.	Seattle	Miss
7	East Conf. Final	Houston	Houston	Hit
8	West Conf. Final	Seattle	L.A.	Miss
	Total			4 Hits / 8 Series (50.00%)

Eastern Conference:

K.O.:

4.Chicago vs. 5.Houston (Regular Season Series: Chicago 1-1, 3-1 Houston @ home; Actual: Houston advanced 2-0.)

Conference Semis:

1.Kansas City vs. 4.Houston (Regular Season Series: 1-2, 0-0, 1-1; Actual: Houston advanced on aggregate goals 2-1)

2.D.C. United vs. 3.New York (Regular Season Series: 4-1, 2-3, 2-2; Actual: D.C. advanced on aggregate goals 2-1)

Conference Final:

2.D.C. United vs. 4.Houston (Regular Season Series: 3-2, 0-1, 0-4; Actual: Houston advanced on aggregate goals 4-2.)

Western Conference:

K.O.:

4.L.A. vs. 5.Vancouver (Regular Season Series: L.A. 3-0, 2-0 V.W. @ home; Actual: L.A. advanced 2-1.)

Conference Semis:

1.San Jose vs. 4.L.A. (Regular Season Series: 3-2, 4-3, 2-2; Actual: L.A. advanced on aggregate goals 3-2)

2.R.S.L. vs. 3.Seattle (Regular Season Series: 1-0, 0-0, 0-0; Actual: Seattle advanced on aggregate goals 1-0)

Conference Final:

2.Seattle vs. 4.L.A. (Regular Season Series: 2-0, 4-0, 0-1; Actual: L.A. advanced on aggregate goals 4-2.)

MLS Cup Final 2012:

(SS#8) L.A. vs. (SS#9) Houston (Regular Season Series: 1-2; Houston win MLS Cup!!)

The "aftermath" of 2012 conference final results, after Nov-18:

Why do you continue to put so much time into this analysis when it is completely clear based on this and prior seasons that this method has absolutely zero explanatory power?

Well, on "absolutely zero explanatory power", I beg to differ.

The method has correctly projected the outcome of past playoff series, 42% of the time, and is 50/50 in 2012.

While it may not be very accurate, I wouldn't go as far as calling it "ZERO", .

According to: http://www.mlssoccer.com/ccl/news/a...-galaxy-dynamo-join-sj-skc-2013-14-tournament:

The 4th-straight CCL appearances by L.A. have now matched the streak achieved by Houston in 2007-2010, though it's still one short of the record set by D.C. in 1997-2002:

1. D.C. United (5-straight editions): CONCACAF Champions Cup: 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002 (postpone from 2001).

2. Houston Dynamo (4-straight editions):

• CONCACAF Champions Cup: 2007, 2008;
• CONCACAF Champions League: 2008-09, 2009-10.

By the way, noticed that Seattle Sounders (who were playing in Division-2 back then) have taken part in 1996 CCC, with 2 stand-out scorelines:

USA/Caribbean Playoff

Seattle Sounders

10 - 0

SV Transvaal

CONCACAF Final Group Stage

Seattle Sounders

0 -11

Cruz Azul

Francisco Palencia 3'

Carlos Hermosillo 13', 32', 49'

Julio César Yegros 15', 53', 62'

Hector Adomaitis 34'

Benjamin Galindo 35'

Kieran Barton 72' (OG)

Francisco Ramírez 74' (pen.)

Are the 10-goal Win, 11-goal Loss and the 21 goal Win-Loss-Swing a record for USA's entrants in CCL/CCC?

50/50 is zero explanatory power. A coin flip has zero explanatory power and it's correct 50% of the time... If you had even an inkling of understanding of probability and statistics you would realize that you are pursuing a completely irrelevant and worthless method.

The Official CCL Media Guide 2011/12 (http://www.concacaf.com/staticFiles/5/a0/0,,12813~172037,00.pdf) only listed the stats since CCL started in 2008/09, and omitted those in CCC era:

Just realized that D.C. United also had another 4-straight CCL appearances in 2007, 2008, 2008–09, 2009–10, according to:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CONCACAF_Champions'_Cup_and_Champions_League_records_and_statistics#All-time_appearances

Well, just a question for our dear stats expert: on what % of accuracy would a method be qualified as relevant and worthwhile?

It would depend on the number of data points (i.e. the sample size). For smaller sample sizes the percentage would have to be higher and for bigger sample sizes it could be closer to 50% and still have significance.

I can easily do that for you. The information I would need is the number of playoff series you attempt to predict and the number of those playoff series whose prediction is correct.
If you want to do this yourself, type the following into R (downloadable online):

test = c(1, 1, 1, ... , 1, 0, ..., 0) #(every 1 in this vector represents a correct prediction, every 0 an incorrect prediction). So if you had 4 right and 3 wrong you would type "test = c(1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0)".
test = test - .5 #This is to center the test about 0.
summary(lm(test ~ 1))

Below is an example if there are 4 right predictions and 3 wrong ones.
> test = c(1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0) > test = test - .5 > summary(lm(test ~ 1))
Call:
lm(formula = test ~ 1)

Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-0.5714 -0.5714 0.4286 0.4286 0.4286

Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 0.07143 0.20203 0.354 0.736

Residual standard error: 0.5345 on 6 degrees of freedom

If the bolded number under Pr(>|t|) falls below 0.05 then you have a significant predictor, otherwise it is not really useful. So in this example it would not be a useful predictor.

Edit: Just did a little trial and error for 100 predictions, and it turns out you need at least 60% correct for 100 data points to have a significant predictor, just to give you an idea.

Cool, now we are onto something solid here, will supply the raw data shortly, for further analysis...

MLS Cup Playoffs 2012 Predictions by Regular Season Series
- concluded after MLS Cup Final (Dec-1).

Quick Notes:

• L.A. won despite Houston being the "favorites".
• Prediction Accuracy for 2012 Playoffs: 44.44%.

#	Series	Predicted Winners	Actual Winners	Hit/Miss?
1	East KO	Chicago	Houston	Miss
2	West KO	L.A.	L.A	Hit
3	East Conf. Semi #1	Houston	Houston	Hit
4	East Conf. Semi #2	D.C.	D.C.	Hit
5	West Conf. Semi #1	S.J.	L.A.	Miss
6	West Conf. Semi #2	RSL.	Seattle	Miss
7	East Conf. Final	Houston	Houston	Hit
8	West Conf. Final	Seattle	L.A.	Miss
8	MLS Cup Final	Houston	L.A.	Miss
	Total			4 Hits / 9 Series (44.44%)

Eastern Conference:

K.O.:

4.Chicago vs. 5.Houston (Regular Season Series: Chicago 1-1, 3-1 Houston @ home; Actual: Houston advanced 2-0.) (Miss)

Conference Semis:

1.Kansas City vs. 4.Houston (Regular Season Series: 1-2, 0-0, 1-1; Actual: Houston advanced on aggregate goals 2-1) (Hit)

2.D.C. United vs. 3.New York (Regular Season Series: 4-1, 2-3, 2-2; Actual: D.C. advanced on aggregate goals 2-1) (Hit)

Conference Final:

2.D.C. United vs. 4.Houston (Regular Season Series: 3-2, 0-1, 0-4; Actual: Houston advanced on aggregate goals 4-2.) (Hit)

Western Conference:

K.O.:

4.L.A. vs. 5.Vancouver (Regular Season Series: L.A. 3-0, 2-0 V.W. @ home; Actual: L.A. advanced 2-1.) (Hit)

Conference Semis:

1.San Jose vs. 4.L.A. (Regular Season Series: 3-2, 4-3, 2-2; Actual: L.A. advanced on aggregate goals 3-2) (Miss)

2.R.S.L. vs. 3.Seattle (Regular Season Series: 1-0, 0-0, 0-0; Actual: Seattle advanced on aggregate goals 1-0) (Miss)

Conference Final:

2.Seattle vs. 4.L.A. (Regular Season Series: 2-0, 4-0, 0-1; Actual: L.A. advanced on aggregate goals 4-2.) (Miss)

MLS Cup Final 2012:

(SS#8, W4) L.A. vs. (SS#9, E5) Houston (Regular Season Series: 1-2; Actual: L.A. won MLS Cup 3-1!!) (Miss)

Other implications of L.A.'s win in MLS Cup 2012:

1. L.A. are now among the 3 lowest-seeded champions ever:

Seeding Criteria	L.A.	Remarks
By Conference	W4	Matched the previous record of "4", set in 2005 by L.A. (W4) & 2009 by RSL (W5, or "E4").
By SS Standings	#8	Matched the previous record of "#8", also set in 2005 by L.A. (#8) and 2009 by RSL (#8).

2. Bruce Arena becomes the first head coach to win 4 MLS Cups.

3. He's also the first to win back-to-back titles TWICE.

4. Dominic Kinnear was denied the chance as the first head coach to win 3 MLS Cups with same team. Alas, it was not to be.

5. Dom Kin also joined Steve Nicol (N.E.) as the 2nd coach to lose successive cup finals.

6. He also tied Steve's record of leading the same team to the final 4 times (fortunately he did win twice, unlike the unlucky Steve).

7. L.A. are the 1st team to score > 10 playoffs goals, since D.C. United scored 10 in 2004.
Past Teams with >10 playoffs goals in each season were listed as below.

Season	Team	GP	GS-GA	GPG (Goals-per-Game)	Playoffs Outcome	Remarks
2012	L.A.	6	12-6	2.000	Won MLS Cup
2004	D.C.	4	10-6	2.500	Won MLS Cup
2003	S.J.	4	12-8	3.000	Won MLS Cup	Best GPG ratio ever at 3.000.
2002	L.A.	6	15-8	2.500	Won MLS Cup	Most Goals scored ever at 15, & Best GD at +7.
2001	S.J.	6	13-3	2.167	Won MLS Cup
2001	L.A.	7	11-11	1.571	Reached MLS Cup
2000	Chicago	7	15-8	2.143	Reached MLS Cup	Most Goals scored ever at 15, & Best GD at +7.
1999	D.C.	6	11-6	1.833	Won MLS Cup	The only season where 3 teams with > 10 goals.
1999	L.A.	6	12-6	2.000	Reached MLS Cup
1999	Columbus	5	10-7	2.000	Reached Conference Final
1998	L.A.	4	10-5	2.500	Reached Conference Final	The only season where 2 teams with > 10 goalsdid not reach the final.
1998	Columbus	5	10-11	2.000	Reached Conference Final
1997	D.C.	5	11-5	2.200	Won MLS Cup
1997	Colorado	5	10-5	2.000	Reached MLS Cup
1996	D.C.	6	14-7	2.333	Won MLS Cup	Best GD at +7.

At least 1 team has scored >10 playoffs goals in each season between 1996-2004 (9 seasons straight), followed by a "drought" in 2005-2011 (7 seasons straight), until L.A. bucked the trend in 2012.

@ Bonus_Game: It's done! Below table contains the updated raw data through 2012, for your help to analyze please...

Season	Playoffs Series	Same Outcome	Diff. Outcome	% of Same Outcome	Champions "Predicted" (Actual)	Champions Spotted	Vector Formula
2012	9	4	5	44%	HOU. (L.A.)	No	"test = c(1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)"
2011	9	4	5	44%	HOU. (L.A.)	No	"test = c(1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)"
2010	7	4	3	57%	DAL. (COL.)	No	"test = c(1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0)"
2009	7	4	3	57%	RSL. (RSL.)	Yes	"test = c(1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0)"
2008	7	5	2	71%	N.Y. (CLB.)	No	"test = c(1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0)"
2007	7	4	3	57%	N.E. (HOU.)	No	"test = c(1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0)"
2006	7	4	3	57%	HOU. (HOU.)	Yes	"test = c(1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0)"
2005	7	3	4	43%	L.A. (L.A.)	Yes	"test = c(1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)"
2004	7	4	3	57%	K.C. (D.C.)	No	"test = c(1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0)"
2003	7	3	4	43%	CHI. (S.J.)	No	"test = c(1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)"
2002	7	4	3	57%	N.E. (L.A.)	No	"test = c(1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0)"
2001	7	4	3	57%	S.J. (S.J.)	Yes	"test = c(1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0)"
2000	7	2	5	29%	CHI. (K.C.)	No	"test = c(1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)"
1999	7	3	4	43%	D.C. (D.C.)	Yes	"test = c(1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)"
1998	7	4	3	57%	D.C. (CHI.)	No	"test = c(1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0)"
1997	7	3	4	43%	D.C. (D.C.)	Yes	"test = c(1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)"
1996	7	4	3	57%	L.A. (D.C.)	No	"test = c(1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0)"
Total	114	63	51	55%	D.C./HOU. rules with 3 titles each!!	6 Champs out of 16 Finals spotted. (37.5%)

===================================================================
Detailed Predictions for each season as below:
===================================================================

Season 2012:

Eastern Conference:
K.O.: (E4).CHI. vs. (E5).HOU. (Reg. Season @ home: CHI. 1-1,3-1; CHI. would have won); Actual: HOU. advanced 2-0. (Miss)

Conference Semis:
(E1).K.C. vs. (E4).HOU. (Reg. Season: 1-2,0-0,1-1; HOU. would have won); Actual: HOU. advanced on aggregate goals 2-1) (Hit)
(E2).D.C. vs. (E3).N.Y. (Reg. Season: 4-1,2-3,2-2; D.C. would have won); Actual: D.C. advanced on aggregate goals 2-1) (Hit)

Conference Final:
(E2).D.C. vs. (E4).HOU. (Reg. Season: 3-2,0-1,0-4; HOU. would have won); Actual: HOU. advanced on aggregate goals 4-2.) (Hit)

Western Conference:
K.O.: (W4).L.A. vs. (W5).VAN. (Reg. Season @ home: L.A. 3-0,2-0; L.A. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced 2-1.) (Hit)

Conference Semis:
(W1).S.J. vs. (W4).L.A. (Reg. Season: 3-2,4-3,2-2; S.J. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced on aggregate goals 3-2) (Miss)
(W2).RSL. vs. (W3).SEA. (Reg. Season: 1-0,0-0,0-0; RSL. would have won); Actual: SEA. advanced on aggregate goals 1-0) (Miss)

Conference Final:
(W3).SEA. vs. (W4).L.A. (Reg. Season: 2-0,4-0,0-1; SEA. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced on aggregate goals 4-2.) (Miss)

MLS Cup Final:
(SS#8,W4) L.A. vs. (SS#9,E5) HOU. (Reg. Season: 1-2; HOU. would have won); Actual: L.A. won MLS Cup 3-1!!) (Miss)

===================================================================

Season 2011:

Wildcard Round:
DAL.(WC1) vs. N.Y.(WC4), Reg. Season @ home: 0-1 (Pts 0:3, N.Y. would have won); Actual: N.Y. advanced. (Hit)
COL.(WC2) vs. CLB.(WC3), Reg. Season @ home: 2-0 (Pts 3:0, COL. would have won); Actual: COL. advanced. (Hit)

Conf Semi:
East:
K.C.(1E) vs. COL.(WC2), Reg. Season: 1-1, 1-1 (Pts 2:2, GS 2:2, PK 4:3, K.C. would have won); Actual: K.C. advanced. (Hit)
http://www.mlssoccer.com/stats/team...c38d2212a4ddf053d&form_id=mls_stats_team_form
HOU.(2E) vs. PHI.(3E), Reg. Season: 0-1, 1-1 (Pts 1:4 PHI. would have won); Actual: HOU. advanced!! (Miss)

West:
L.A.(1W) vs. N.Y.(4W), Reg. Season: 1-1, 0-2 (Pts 1:4 N.Y. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced!! (Miss)
SEA.(2W) vs. RSL.(3W), Reg. Season: 1-2, 2-1 (Pts 3:3, GS 3:3, PK 6:5, SEA. would have won); Actual: RSL. advanced!! (Miss)
http://www.mlssoccer.com/stats/team...c38d2212a4ddf053d&form_id=mls_stats_team_form

Conf Final:
East: K.C.(1E) vs. HOU.(2E), Reg. Season @ home: 3-0 (Pts 3:0 K.C. would have won); Actual: HOU. advanced!! (Miss)
West: L.A.(1W) vs. RSL.(3W), Reg. Season @ home: 2-1 (Pts 3:0 L.A. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced. (Hit)

MLS Cup Final:
L.A.(1W) vs. HOU.(2E), Reg. Season: 1-0, 1-3 (Pts 3:3, GS 2:3 HOU. would have won); Actual: L.A. won the MLS Cup instead!! (Miss)

===================================================================

Season 2010:

Conf Semi:
East:
N.Y.(1E) vs. S.J.(4E), Reg. Season: 2-0,0-4 (Pts 3:3, GS 2:4, S.J. would have won); Actual: S.J. advanced. (Hit)
CLB.(2E) vs. COL.(3E), Reg. Season: 3-1,0-1 (Pts 3:3, GS 2:4, CLB. would have won); Actual: COL. advanced!! (Miss)

West:
L.A.(1W) vs. SEA.(4W), Reg. Season: 4-0,3-1 (Pts 6:0, L.A. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced. (Hit)
RSL.(2W) vs. DAL.(3W), Reg. Season: Reg. Season: 2-0,0-2 (Pts 3:3, GS 2:2, PK 8:3,DAL. would have won); Actual: DAL. advanced. (Hit)

Conf Final:
East: COL.(3E) vs. S.J.(4E), Reg. Season @ home: 1-0 (Pts 3:0, COL. would have won); Actual: COL. advanced. (Hit)
West: L.A.(1W) vs. DAL.(3W), Reg. Season @ home: 2-1 (Pts 3:0, L.A. would have won); Actual: DAL. advanced!! (Miss)

MLS Cup Final:
DAL.(3W) vs. COL.(3E), Reg. Season: 1-1, 2-2 (Pts 3:3, GS 2:2, PK 8:4, DAL. would have won); Actual: COL. won the MLS Cup instead!! (Miss)
http://www.mlssoccer.com/stats/team...86820af721b0a8847&form_id=mls_stats_team_form

===================================================================

Season 2009:

Conf Semi:
East:
CLB.(1E) vs. RSL.(4E), Reg. Season: 3-1,1-4 (Pts 3:3, GS 3:4, RSL. would have won); Actual: RSL. advanced. (Hit)
CHI.(2E) vs. N.E.(3E), Reg. Season: 1-1,0-0 (Pts 2:2, GS 1:1, PK 4-5, N.E. would have won); Actual: CHI. advanced. (Miss)
http://www.mlssoccer.com/stats/team...ead854f4b55a84eb5&form_id=mls_stats_team_form

West:
L.A.(1W) vs. CHV.(4W), Reg. Season: 0-0,1-0,1-0 (Pts 7:1, L.A. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced. (Hit)
HOU.(2W) vs. SEA.(3W), Reg. Season: 1-1,1-2 (Pts 1:4, SEA. would have won); Actual: HOU. advanced!! (Miss)

Conf Final:
East: CHI.(2E) vs. RSL.(4E), Reg. Season @ home: 1-0 (Pts 3:0, CHI. would have won); Actual: RSL. advanced. (Miss)
West: L.A.(1W) vs. HOU.(2W), Reg. Season @ home: 1-0 (Pts 3:0, L.A. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced. (Hit)

MLS Cup Final:
L.A.(1W) vs. RSL.(4E), Reg. Season: 2-2,0-2 (Pts 1:4, RSL. would have won); Actual: RSL. won the MLS Cup!! (Hit)

===================================================================

Season 2008:

Conf Semi:
East:
CLB.(1E) vs. K.C.(4E), Reg. Season: 2-1,3-3,3-0 (Pts 7:1, CLB. would have won); Actual: CLB. advanced. (Hit)
CHI.(2E) vs. N.E.(3E), Reg. Season: 4-0,3-0,2-1 (Pts 9:0, CHI. would have won); Actual: CHI. advanced. (Hit)

West:
HOU.(1W) vs. N.Y.(4W), Reg. Season: 1-0,0-3 (Pts 3:3, GS 1:3 N.Y. would have won); Actual: N.Y. advanced. (Hit)
CHV.(2W) vs. RSL.(3W), Reg. Season: 3-1,0-1,1-0 (Pts 6:3, CHV. would have won); Actual: RSL. advanced!! (Miss)

Conf Final:
East: CLB.(1E) vs. CHI.(2E), Reg. Season @ home: 2-2 (away 2-2, Pts 2:2, GS 4:4, PK 4:4, Reg.Season Total GS 50:44, CLB. would have won);
Actual: CLB. advanced. (Hit)
http://www.mlssoccer.com/stats/team...93c48bc8d0bbd7c4e&form_id=mls_stats_team_form
http://www.mlssoccer.com/standings/2008
West: RSL.(3W) vs. N.Y.(4W), Reg. Season @ home: 1-1 (away 1-2, Pts 1:4 N.Y. would have won); Actual: N.Y. advanced. (Hit)

MLS Cup Final:
CLB. (1E) vs. N.Y.(4W), Reg. Season: 3-1,0-2,1-3 (Pts 3:6, N.Y.would have won); Actual: CLB. won the MLS Cup instead!! (Miss)

===================================================================

Season 2007:

Conf Semi:
East:
D.C.(1E) vs. CHI.(4E), Reg. Season: 3-1,0-0,1-1 (Pts 5:2, D.C. would have won); Actual: CHI. advanced!! (Miss)
N.E.(2E) vs. N.Y.(3E), Reg. Season: 2-1,1-0 (Pts 6:0, N.E. would have won); Actual: N.E. advanced. (Hit)

West:
CHV.(1W) vs. K.C.(5E), Reg. Season: 2-1,2-3 (Pts 3:3, GS 4:4, PK 3:2, CHV. would have won); Actual: K.C. advanced!! (Miss)
HOU.(2W) vs. DAL.(3W), Reg. Season: 2-1,1-0,0-0,3-0 (Pts 10:1, HOU. would have won); Actual: HOU. advanced. (Hit)

Conf Final:
East: N.E.(2E) vs. CHI.(4E), Reg. Season @ home: 3-1 (Pts 3:0, N.E. would have won); Actual: N.E. advanced. (Hit)
West: HOU.(2W) vs. K.C.(5E), Reg. Season @ home: 1-1 (away 1-0, Pts 4:1, HOU. would have won); Actual: HOU. advanced. (Hit)

MLS Cup Final:
HOU.(2W) vs. N.E.(2E), Reg. Season: 0-1,3-3 (Pts 1:4, N.E. would have won); Actual: HOU. won the MLS Cup instead!! (Miss)

=============================================================

Season 2006:

Conf. Semis:
East:
D.C.(1E) vs. N.Y.(4E) - Reg. Season: 2-2,4-1,0-0,4-3 (Pts 8:2, D.C. would have won); Actual: D.C. advanced. (Hit)
N.E.(2E) vs. CHI.(3E) - Reg. Season: 1-2,3-3,2-1,0-1 (Pts 4:7, CHI. would have won); Actual: N.E. advanced!! (Miss)

West:
DAL.(1W) vs. COL.(4W) - Reg. Season: 2-2,1-0,2-0 (Pts 7:1, DAL. would have won); Actual: COL. advanced!! (Miss)
HOU.(2W) vs. CHV.(3W) - Reg. Season: 1-1,3-1,0-0 (Pts 5:2, HOU. would have won); Actual: HOU. advanced. (Hit)

Conf. Finals:
East: D.C.(1E) vs. N.E.(2E) - Reg. Season @ home: 1-0,1-2 (Away 1-1, 1-1, Pts 5:5, GS 4:4, PK 3:2 D.C. would have won);
Actual: N.E. advanced!! (Miss)
http://www.mlssoccer.com/stats/team...ef80ba5b15f5f5562&form_id=mls_stats_team_form
West: HOU.(2W) vs. COL.(4W) - Reg. Season @ home: 5-2, -3 (Pts 4:1, HOU. would have won); Actual: HOU. advanced. (Hit)

MLS Cup Final:
N.E.(2E) vs. HOU.(2W) - Reg. Season: 1-1,1-1 (Pts 3:3, GS 2:2, PK 2:2, Reg.Season Total GS 44:39, HOU. would have won);
Actual: HOU. won the MLS Cup!! (Hit)
http://www.mlssoccer.com/stats/team...ef80ba5b15f5f5562&form_id=mls_stats_team_form
http://www.mlssoccer.com/standings/2006
=============================================================

Season 2005:

Conf. Semis:
East:
N.E.(1E) vs. N.Y.(4E) - Reg. Season: 2-2,4-2,4-5,1-0 (Pts 7:4, N.E. would have won); Actual: N.E. advanced. (Hit)
D.C.(2E) vs. CHI.(3E) - Reg. Season: 1-1,4-3,3-4,3-2 (Pts 7:4, D.C. would have won); Actual: CHI. advanced!! (Miss)

West:
S.J.(1W) vs. L.A.(4W) - Reg. Season: 1-2,3-0,2-1,3-1 (Pts 9:3, S.J. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced!! (Miss)
DAL.(2W) vs. COL.(3W) - Reg. Season: 0-0,2-1,3-1,0-0 (Pts 8:2, DAL. would have won); Actual: COL. advanced!! (Miss)

Conf. Finals:
East: N.E.(1E) vs. CHI.(3E) - Reg. Season @ home: 2-0,1-0 (Pts 6:0, N.E. would have won); Actual: N.E. advanced. (Hit)
West: COL.(3W) vs. L.A.(4W) - Reg. Season @ home: 1-0,2-0 (Pts 6:0, COL. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced!! (Miss)

MLS Cup Final:
N.E.(1E) vs. L.A.(4W) - Reg. Season: 1-1,1-1 (Pts 2:2, GS 1:1, PK 2:6, L.A. would have won); Actual: L.A. won the MLS Cup!! (Hit)
http://www.mlssoccer.com/stats/team...55733a00d432c2075&form_id=mls_stats_team_form

=============================================================

Season 2004:

Conf. Semis:
East:
CLB.(1E) vs. N.E.(4E) - Reg. Season: 1-0,2-1,1-1,2-2 (Pts 8:2, CLB. would have won); Actual: N.E. advanced!! (Miss)
D.C.(2E) vs. N.Y.(3E) - Reg. Season: 2-3,6-2,1-0,3-2 (Pts 9:3, D.C. would have won); Actual: D.C. advanced. (Hit)

West:
K.C.(1W) vs. S.J.(4W) - Reg. Season: 1-1,0-2,1-0,0-0 (Pts 5:5, GS 2:3, S.J. would have won); Actual: K.C. advanced!! (Miss)
L.A.(2W) vs. COL.(3W) - Reg. Season: 1-1,1-1,2-0,0-0 (Pts 6:3, L.A. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced. (Hit)

Conf. Finals:
East: D.C.(2E) vs. N.E.(4E) - Reg. Season @ home: 2-2,1-0 (Pts 4:1, D.C. would have won); Actual: D.C. advanced!! (Hit)
West: K.C.(1W) vs. L.A.(2W) - Reg. Season @ home: 2-2,1-0 (Pts 4:1, K.C. would have won); Actual: K.C. advanced!! (Hit)

MLS Cup Final:
K.C.(1W) vs. D.C.(2E) - Reg. Season: 0-1,1-0 (Pts 3:3, GS 1:1, PK 3:1, K.C. would have won); Actual: D.C. won the MLS Cup instead!! (Miss)
http://www.mlssoccer.com/stats/team...0e0e87d9282e919ca&form_id=mls_stats_team_form

=============================================================

Season 2003:

Conf. Semis:
East:
CHI.(1E) vs. D.C.(4E) - Reg. Season: 0-0,0-2,1-2,3-1 (Pts 4:7, D.C. would have won); Actual: CHI. advanced!! (Miss)
N.E.(2E) vs. N.Y.(3E) - Reg. Season: 3-3,2-1,2-1,5-2 (Pts 10:1, N.E. would have won); Actual: N.E. advanced. (Hit)

West:
S.J.(1W) vs. L.A.(4W) - Reg. Season: 1-0,1-1,0-3,1-1 (Pts 5:5, GS 3:5, L.A. would have won); Actual: S.J. advanced!! (Miss)
K.C.(2W) vs. COL.(3W) - Reg. Season: 2-3,2-2,0-1,4-2 (Pts 4:7, COL. would have won); Actual: K.C. advanced!! (Miss)

Conf. Finals:
East: CHI.(1E) vs. N.E.(2E) - Reg. Season @ home: 1-1, 3-1 (Pts 4:1, CHI. would have won); Actual: CHI. advanced!! (Hit)
West: S.J.(1W) vs. K.C.(2W) - Reg. Season @ home: 1-1, 0-0 (Away: 1-0, 4-1) (Pts 8:2, S.J. would have won); Actual: S.J. advanced!! (Hit)

MLS Cup Final:
CHI.(1E) vs. S.J.(1W) - Reg. Season: 0-0,4-1,0-0 (Pts 5:2, CHI. would have won); Actual: S.J. won the MLS Cup instead!! (Miss)

=============================================================

Season 2002:

Quarters:
L.A.(1) vs. K.C.(8) - Reg. Season: 2-1,1-2,2-2,2-1 (Pts 7:4, L.A. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced. (Hit)
N.E.(2) vs. CHI.(7) - Reg. Season: 2-2,1-3,0-2,2-1 (Pts 4:7, CHI. would have won); Actual: N.E. advanced!! (Miss)
S.J.(3) vs. CLB.(6) - Reg. Season: 3-2,0-2,1-2,4-3 (Pts 6:6, GS 8:9, CLB. would have won); Actual: CLB. advanced. (Hit)
DAL.(4) vs. COL.(5) - Reg. Season: 3-1,4-1,2-2,2-3 (Pts 7:4, DAL. would have won); Actual: COL. advanced!! (Miss)

Semis:
L.A.(1) vs. COL.(5) - Reg. Season: 0-1,2-3,3-1,4-0 (Pts 6:6, GS 9:5, L.A. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced. (Hit)
N.E.(2) vs. CLB.(6) - Reg. Season: 1-2,2-0,4-1,0-0 (Pts 7:4, N.E. would have won); Actual: N.E. advanced!! (Hit)

MLS Cup Final:
L.A.(1) vs. N.E.(2) - Reg. Season: 2-3,2-1
(Pts 3:3, GS 4:4, PK 3:3, Reg.Season Total GS 44:49, N.E. would have won); Actual: L.A. won the MLS Cup instead!! (Miss)
http://www.mlssoccer.com/stats/team...bbd9df11fe952f767&form_id=mls_stats_team_form
http://www.mlssoccer.com/standings/2002
=============================================================

Season 2001:

Quarters:
MIA.(1) vs K.C.(8) - Reg.Season: 1-2,5-1 (Pts 3:3, GS 6:3, MIA. would have won); Actual: MIA. advanced. (Hit)
CHI.(2) vs DAL.(7) - Reg.Season: 2-3,2-1,2-2 (Pts 4:4, GS 6:6, PK 4:3, CHI. would have won); Actual: CHI. advanced. (Hit)
L.A.(3) vs N.Y.(6) - Reg.Season: 0-2,2-0; (Pts 3:3, GS 2:2, PK 5:1, L.A. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced. (Hit)
CLB.(4) vs S.J.(5) - Reg.Season: 2-1,2-2 (Pts 4:1, CLB. would have won); Actual: S.J. advanced!! (Miss)

Semis:
MIA.(1) vs S.J.(5) - Reg.Season: 2-1,1-1 (Pts 4:1, MIA. would have won); Actual: S.J. advanced!! (Miss)
CHI.(2) vs L.A.(3) - Reg.Season: 3-4,3-1 (Pts 3:3, GS 6:5, CHI. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced!! (Miss)

MLS Cup Final:
L.A.(3) vs S.J.(5) - Reg.Season: 2-3,1-3 (Pts 0:6, S.J. would have won); Actual: S.J. won the MLS Cup!! (Hit)

=============================================================

Season 2000:

Quarters:
K.C.(1) vs COL.(8) - Reg.Season: 3-0,5-0,3-1,1-1 (Pts 10:1, K.C. would have won); Actual: K.C. advanced. (Hit)
CHI.(2) vs N.E.(7) - Reg.Season: 1-1,0-1 (Pts 1:4, N.E. would have won); Actual: CHI. advanced!! (Miss)
N.Y.(3) vs DAL.(6) - Reg.Season: 2-1,6-4 (Pts 6:0, N.Y. would have won); Actual: N.Y. advanced. (Hit)
T.B.(4) vs L.A.(5) - Reg.Season: 1-2,2-0 (Pts 6:6, GS 3:2, T.B. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced!! (Miss)

Semis:
K.C.(1) vs L.A.(5) - Reg.Season: 0-0,2-0,1-5,1-1 (Pts 5:5, GS 4:6, L.A. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced!! (Miss)
CHI.(2) vs N.Y.(3) - Reg.Season: 1-4,3-1 (Pts 3:3, GS 4:5 N.Y. would have won); Actual: CHI. advanced!! (Miss)

MLS Cup Final:
K.C.(1) vs CHI.(2) - Reg.Season: 4-3,2-3 (Pts 3:3, GS 6:6, PK 0:5 CHI. would have won); Actual: K.C. won the MLS Cup instead!! (Miss)
http://www.mlssoccer.com/stats/team...382ced6ac002e4a66&form_id=mls_stats_team_form

=============================================================

Season 1999:

Conf Semi:
East:
D.C.(1E) vs MIA.(4E) - Reg.Season: 3-1,3-1,3-2(SO),3-1 (Pts 10:0, D.C. would have won); Actual: D.C. advanced. (Hit)
CLB.(2E) vs T.B.(3E) - Reg.Season: 3-2,0-1(SO),1-2(SO),1-2 (Pts 5:3, T.B. would have won); Actual: CLB. advanced!! (Miss)

West:
L.A.(1W) vs COL.(4W) - Reg.Season: 2-1(SO),0-1,0-1,4-0 (Pts 6:4, COL. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced!! (Miss)
DAL.(2W) vs CHI.(3W) - Reg.Season: 1-0(SO),1-2(SO),1-2,4-3(SO) (Pts 4:2, CHI. would have won); Actual: DAL. advanced!! (Miss)

Conf Final:
East: D.C.(1E) vs T.B.(3E) - Reg.Season: 5-2,3-2(SO),2-1,2-4 (Pts 7:3, D.C. would have won); Actual: D.C. advanced. (Hit)
West: L.A.(1W) vs DAL.(2W) - Reg.Season: 1-0(SO),2-0,0-1,3-4 (Pts 4:6, DAL. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced. (Miss)

MLS Cup Final:
D.C.(1E) vs L.A.(1W) - Reg.Season: 1-2,2-0 (Pts 3:3, GS: 3:2, D.C. would have won); Actual: D.C. won the MLS Cup!! (Hit)

=============================================================

Season 1998:

Conf Semi:
East:
D.C.(1E) vs MIA.(4E) - Reg.Season: 2-0,3-1,3-4,1-3 (Pts 6:6, GS 9:8, D.C. would have won); Actual: D.C. advanced. (Hit)
CLB.(2E) vs N.Y.(3E) - Reg.Season: 2-1,0-3,1-3,4-3 (Pts 6:6, GS 7:10, N.Y. would have won); Actual: CLB. advanced!! (Miss)

West:
L.A.(1W) vs DAL.(4W) - Reg.Season: 4-1,8-1,0-3,3-0 (Pts 9:3, L.A. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced. (Hit)
CHI.(2W) vs COL.(3W) - Reg.Season: 4-5(SO),5-0,2-0,3-1 (Pts 9:1, CHI. would have won); Actual: CHI. advanced. (Hit)

Conf Final:
East: D.C.(1E) vs CLB.(2E) - Reg.Season: 1-2,2-1,4-3(SO),3-2(SO) (Pts 9:3, D.C. would have won); Actual: D.C. advanced. (Hit)
West: L.A.(1W) vs CHI.(2W) - Reg.Season: 1-3,1-2(SO),2-1,1-0 (Pts 6:4, L.A. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced!! (Miss)

MLS Cup Final:
CHI.(2W) vs D.C.(1E) - Reg.Season: 1-3,1-4 (Pts 0:6, D.C. would have won); Actual: CHI. won the MLS Cup instead!! (Miss)

=============================================================

Season 1997:

Conf Semi:
East:
D.C.(1E) vs N.E.(4E) - Reg.Season: 1-0(SO),1-0,3-2,3-2(SO) (Pts 8:0, D.C. would have won); Actual: D.C. advanced. (Hit)
T.B.(2E) vs CLB.(3E) - Reg.Season: 3-1,1-0(SO),2-1,1-2(SO) (Pts 7:1, T.B. would have won); Actual: CLB. advanced!! (Miss)

West:
K.C.(1W) vs COL.(4W) - Reg.Season: 4-3(SO),1-0,2-1,5-2 (Pts 10:0, K.C. would have won); Actual: COL. advanced!! (Miss)
L.A.(2W) vs DAL.(3W) - Reg.Season: 1-2,3-0,3-1,2-1 (Pts 9:3, L.A. would have won); Actual: DAL. advanced!! (Miss)

Conf Final:
East: D.C.(1E) vs CLB.(3E) - Reg.Season: 3-2,2-1(SO),4-2,0-2 (Pts 7:3, D.C. would have won); Actual: D.C. advanced. (Hit)
West: DAL.(3W) vs COL.(4W) - Reg.Season: 4-1,0-1,4-2,4-1 (Pts 9:3, DAL. would have won); Actual: COL. advanced!! (Miss)

MLS Cup Final:
D.C.(1E) vs COL.(4W) - Reg.Season: 5-2,5-0,2-3(SO) (Pts 6:1, D.C. would have won); Actual: D.C. won the MLS Cup!! (Hit)

=============================================================

Season 1996:

Conf Semi:
East:
T.B.(1E) vs CLB.(4E): Reg.Season: 2-1,3-4(SO),4-1,0-1 (Pts 6:4, T.B. would have won); Actual: T.B. advanced. (Hit)
D.C.(2E) vs N.Y.(3E): Reg.Season: 1-2(SO),2-1,3-2,1-2 (Pts 6:4, D.C. would have won); Actual: D.C. advanced. (Hit)

West:
L.A.(1W) vs S.J.(4W): Reg.Season: 2-1,2-1,2-1(SO),4-2 (Pts 10:0, L.A. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced. (Hit)
DAL.(2W) vs K.C.(3W): Reg.Season: 3-0,3-2,0-1,2-1 (Pts 9:3, DAL. would have won); Actual: K.C. advanced!! (Miss)

Conf Final:
East: T.B.(1E) vs D.C.(2E): Reg.Season: 0-1,1-3,0-3,2-0 (Pts 3:9, D.C. would have won); Actual: D.C. advanced. (Hit)
West: L.A.(1W) vs K.C.(2W): Reg.Season: 2-0,1-3,2-3(SO),1-2(SO) (Pts 3:5, K.C. would have won); Actual: L.A. advanced!! (Miss)

MLS Cup Final:
D.C.(2E) vs L.A.(1W): Reg.Season: 1-2,1-3,2-1 (Pts 3:6, L.A. would have won); Actual: D.C. won the MLS Cup instead!! (Miss)