Is this heaven? No it's bigsoccer. Remember in this thread we discuss the: (AAQ = Attendance Analysis Quotient. This figure is an overall attendance assessment, calculated from the weighted values of average attendance, median attendance, <10K percentage and >20K percentage. A lower figure represents a better attendance performance.) This is a slight change from Andy's old formula which used simple ordinal values and provided a full ranking point separation for two numbers that may have been within a percentage. This ordinal system did not allow for fine differences to be seen, and may have painted a somewhat skewed view of the numbers (though to be honest there is not much difference in the two end of season sets). The formula to find the weighted value for each column is: Take the annual value and subtract it from the Max value for it's column. Then take that result and divide it by the (Max-Min) for its column. For example, for the average column 18801 is the max 13756 is the min 5045 is the difference To calculate the derived value for 2011 Subtract 17869 from 18801 to get 932. Divide 932 by 5045 then multiply by 100 to get 18 MLS Attendance is based on tickets distributed not tickets scanned. Therefore if a team sells or distributes X number of tickets, then X is the attendance for that match. Even if 0 people showed up for whatever reason, X would still be the official attendance. There are a number of reasons actual attendance may be lower or higher than the announced.
Last Week: 5 of 9 topped 20k, but the week as a whole did not top 19. It was however a very strong week, and the late dip was due only to the limited cap at Buck Shaw. Home Team Attendance Montréal 20801 Columbus 16352 New England 14630 Red Bull New York 25355 Houston 22289 Colorado 16030 Los Angeles 24237 Portland 20674 San Jose 10525 Total 170893 Average 18988 This Week: We get some Wednesday tilts this week for the first time in a while. Starting off in Los Angeles, where the Goats host FCD, that is followed by Portland welcoming RSL in a battle for western supremacy. On Friday night lights, its Chicago hosting KC. Then Saturday gives us a handful with Montreal v Houston, and DC v Toronto kicking things off. Then another pairing starts just as those end with San Jose at FCD, and Vancouver home to LA. The nightcap is RSL hosting Columbus. Then we get three more on Sunday to wrap a busy 11 match week. First an early game in LA where the Goats welcome the Red Bulls, then a later evening match in New England as the Revs are home to the Union, and finally off to Seattle where Portland makes the short drive up the five.
Season Stats: Remember in the count columns everything above the 15k cell is a subset of the 15k number, and likewise everything below the 10k is a subset of that. We are 228 matches in to 2013, or 70.6% of the season. Season Stats Totals …… Threshold Count Percent Played 228 …… >=50000 2 0.9% Total 4133725 …… >=30000 12 5.3% Average 18130 …… >=20000 69 30.3% Median 18208 …… >=15000 159 69.7% Maximum 53679 …… <10000 12 5.3% Minimum 6801 …… <7500 3 1.3% Deviation 6919 …… <5000 0 0.0%
AAQ Data: Taking a firm hold of 2nd where we are likely to finish, but the gap is not the big Historical Average Median <10k >20k Avg Pts Med Pts <10k Pts >20k Pts AAAQ Pts AAAQ Rnk Date 1996 17410 15093 21.9% 26.3% 28 51 62 31 171 6 9/22 1997 14606 12733 25.0% 16.3% 83 87 71 81 322 14 9/28 1998 14312 11871 26.6% 16.1% 89 100 76 82 347 15 9/27 1999 14282 12973 32.3% 15.1% 90 83 94 87 353 16 10/10 2000 13756 12690 34.4% 12.5% 100 87 100 100 387 17 9/9 2001 14961 13431 26.6% 17.7% 76 76 76 74 302 12 9/9 2002 15821 14108 17.1% 18.6% 59 66 47 70 241 8 9/22 2003 14900 13719 23.3% 18.0% 77 72 66 73 287 11 10/26 2004 15549 13223 24.7% 25.3% 64 79 70 36 250 9 10/17 2005 15112 12619 27.1% 17.7% 73 89 78 74 313 13 10/16 2006 15426 14113 19.3% 18.2% 67 66 54 72 258 10 10/15 2007 16767 15353 8.2% 29.7% 40 47 19 14 120 3 10/21 2008 16460 15188 11.0% 24.8% 46 49 28 39 162 5 10/26 2009 16037 14686 14.7% 20.9% 55 57 39 58 209 7 10/25 2010 16675 15332 7.5% 22.5% 42 47 17 50 156 4 10/16 2011 17869 17639 5.6% 28.1% 18 12 11 22 63 2 10/23 2012 18801 18393 1.9% 32.5% 0 0 0 0 0 1 10/28 Historical Average Median <10k >20k Avg Pts Med Pts <10k Pts >20k Pts AAAQ Pts AAAQ Rnk Date Current Average Median <10k >20k Avg Pts Med Pts <10k Pts >20k Pts AAAQ Pts AAAQ Rnk Date 1996 18410 15845 22.1% 30.1% 9 39 60 3 111 4 8/8 1997 15066 13168 18.6% 15.9% 73 80 50 75 277 12 8/9 1998 14493 11871 24.3% 16.2% 84 100 67 74 324 16 8/8 1999 14815 13427 30.9% 16.9% 77 76 87 70 310 15 8/18 2000 13633 12792 35.3% 11.0% 100 86 100 100 386 18 7/22 2001 15022 13844 26.1% 17.1% 73 70 72 69 284 13 7/21 2002 15879 13665 19.2% 18.2% 57 72 51 63 244 9 7/27 2003 14421 13266 26.4% 17.0% 85 79 73 70 306 14 8/30 2004 15231 13223 27.4% 23.6% 69 79 76 36 261 10 8/21 2005 14799 12089 30.9% 15.4% 78 97 87 78 339 17 8/19 2006 15496 13036 22.1% 17.6% 64 82 60 66 273 11 8/20 2007 15932 14351 10.1% 23.2% 56 62 24 38 180 7 8/26 2008 16404 15188 11.5% 25.0% 47 49 28 29 153 5 8/29 2009 15933 14611 14.5% 20.8% 56 58 37 50 201 8 8/22 2010 16652 14479 7.7% 23.1% 42 60 17 39 157 6 8/28 2011 17396 17050 7.4% 24.5% 28 20 16 31 96 3 8/14 2012 18856 18379 2.2% 30.7% 0 0 0 0 0 1 8/18 2013 18130 18208 5.3% 30.3% 14 3 9 2 28 2 8/18 Current Average Median <10k >20k Avg Pts Med Pts <10k Pts >20k Pts AAAQ Pts AAAQ Rnk Date
Comparison To Last Season and All-Time: Up is up, down is down. Team Played Current Last AllTime Average Last +/- AllTime +/- Chicago 12 14068 15724 15593 -10.5% -9.8% Chivas USA 11 8670 13191 15484 -34.3% -44.0% Colorado 14 15225 14974 14049 1.7% 8.4% Columbus 12 15249 14537 15184 4.9% 0.4% DC United 12 13577 14022 16977 -3.2% -20.0% FC Dallas 12 16025 13525 12332 18.5% 29.9% Houston 12 20114 21088 17897 -4.6% 12.4% Los Angeles 11 21989 22729 22136 -3.3% -0.7% Montréal 12 20944 24052 22772 -12.9% -8.0% New England 12 13635 12916 15506 5.6% -12.1% Philadelphia 13 17629 18277 18491 -3.5% -4.7% Portland 11 20674 20438 19632 1.2% 5.3% Red Bull NY 12 18901 17664 17231 7.0% 9.7% Real Salt Lake 12 18884 18678 17132 1.1% 10.2% San Jose 13 13492 14161 12854 -4.7% 5.0% Seattle 10 40521 39537 37405 2.5% 8.3% Sporting KC 13 19853 19314 11905 2.8% 66.8% Toronto FC 12 19390 19063 19882 1.7% -2.5% Vancouver 12 19882 19442 19944 2.3% -0.3% Overall 228 18130 18856 16033 -3.9% 13.1% Team Played Current Last AllTime Average Last +/- AllTime +/- The second table is more focused on this particular match number for each team. Recent is the most recent home attendance, current is the current season average, average and median are the teams average and median for this game number, and finally running average is where each team would be on average through this point of the season. Team Recent Current Average Median Running Average Average +/- Median +/- Running +/- Chicago 17297 14068 15059 15887 15366 14.9% 8.9% -8.4% Chivas USA 8221 8670 13499 11772 14930 -39.1% -30.2% -41.9% Colorado 16030 15225 11051 10471 13995 45.1% 53.1% 8.8% Columbus 16352 15249 16438 16708 14636 -0.5% -2.1% 4.2% DC United 12354 13577 17641 14655 16859 -30.0% -15.7% -19.5% FC Dallas 18161 16025 10920 10219 12271 66.3% 77.7% 30.6% Houston 22289 20114 24338 17063 17412 -8.4% 30.6% 15.5% Los Angeles 24237 21989 23071 22881 22482 5.1% 5.9% -2.2% Montréal 20801 20944 19441 19441 24052 7.0% 7.0% -12.9% New England 14630 13635 14885 13210 15131 -1.7% 10.7% -9.9% Philadelphia 18652 17629 16277 16148 18586 14.6% 15.5% -5.1% Portland 20674 20674 19533 19533 19533 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% Red Bull NY 25355 18901 15342 14397 17532 65.3% 76.1% 7.8% Real Salt Lake 19402 18884 17622 16887 16876 10.1% 14.9% 11.9% San Jose 10525 13492 11426 10525 12642 -7.9% 0.0% 6.7% Seattle 39360 40521 36002 36273 35736 9.3% 8.5% 13.4% Sporting KC 19988 19853 11459 10217 11513 74.4% 95.6% 72.4% Toronto FC 18766 19390 20251 20368 20048 -7.3% -7.9% -3.3% Vancouver 20151 19882 20155 20155 19997 0.0% 0.0% -0.6% Team Recent Current Average Median Running Average Average +/- Median +/- Running +/- Milestones: None. Team Centric Thread is Here
CurrentRemainingFinalAverageTotalAveragetotalAverageTotalChicago1214068168816515000750001714342243816Chivas USA118670953706750045000178257140370Colorado1415225213150316000480001715362261150Columbus1215249182988516500825001715617265488DC United1213577162924514000700001713701232924FC Dallas1216025192300515000750001715724267300Houston12201142413685200001000001720080341368Los Angeles11219892418796220001320001721993373879Montréal12209442513285200001000001720666351328New England1213635163620515000750001714036238620Philadelphia1317629229177418000720001717716301177Portland11206742274146206741240441720674351458Real Salt Lake1218884226608518500925001718771319108Red Bull NY12189012268125200001000001719224326812San Jose1313492175396410525421001712794217496Seattle10405214052107495713470001744248752210Sporting KC1319853258089420000800001719888338089Toronto FC1219390232680517500875001718834320180Vancouver12198822385845205001025001720064341084Overall22818130413371395194751850144323185265983857Reminder that the Remaining Average Column is a pure prediction and is open to criticism. My Seattle value is =((2*60000)+(1*67000)+(4*40000))/7 Notes: My Prognostication in this chart are looking more and more conservative as the weeks pass. which makes the prediction of 18526 that much more impressive. I feel like i should bump a bunch of teams up, since so many seem to be trending significantly higher than their average. But I also do not want to stray too far from the purpose of this thread. Spreadsheet link: https://www.dropbox.com/s/std6wg5z5d5j45r/Sans Chivas attendance.xlsm
I guess I haven't been paying attention, but I just noticed that Dallas is currently 14 fans/game above their 1996 average. Is there any chance they finish above 16011? That'd be a pretty big deal, no? If Dallas can keep improving attendance the league will have two examples, in FCD and SKC, of how to turn around original teams that lag behind the expansion franchises.
The Dallas front office's hard work this season is illustrated by the fact that they keep drawing big crowds even though on-field performance is in such a long slump. I would think 1996 is easily in reach, especially if they start winning again. FCD and SKC have been very impressive. Colorado is seemingly starting to get there too.
9,474 in L.A. for CCL. Next CCL game looks like it will be capped at 8,000 based on the sections for sale - unfortunate since I think we can break 10k for a game against Olympia.
Also why did FS1 show the Houston away match instead of the Galaxy game, which actually ended up looking like a real soccer match?
And two examples of turnarounds for teams with stadiums out in the boonies, giving me some hope the Fire might figure out the equation in the coming years, because by comparison Toyota Park is centrally located within the region.
Yep. Also, if anyone bothered to watch the LA game, there would have been complaints about that garbage being on FS1 as well. FOX Soccer+ may have been too good for that.
Anyone want to bet San Jose is the next success story? Selling out their small stadium with an exciting team and a new stadium on the way? It looks like KC part II.
Could be, but there's a lot going on that may derail it (long delays, Ultras vs Front Office issues, poor (until recently) on field performance, etc).
Robb Heineman has stated the following in his reddit chat 1) no confirmed timeline for stadium expansion 2) believes that demand in the 2015 season may drive the decision 3) if they were to expand they are looking at adding about 8k seats. http://www.reddit.com/r/MLS/comments/1ktlun/im_robb_heineman_sporting_club_ceo_ask_me_anything/
That would make it the largest non-football stadium in the US, right? RBA is 'only' 25k. That would make KC around 28k.
Bigger then the HDC's standard "27,000" seats, though they've had over 30k in there for some matches I believe with the grass hill/temporary seating.
Officially Sporting Park holds 18,467(not including standing room) according to wiki, so adding 8k to that puts it at about 26.5k, a hair under Stub Hubs official number of 27k (which does not include the grass area). I do not know what would happen with the standing space if Sporting ever expands.
Depends on if they get rid of the SRO as part of the expansion? I know KC has gone over 20k a few times thanks to the SRO tickets, but if they don't include the SRO in the capacity figures (which they currently don't do), StubHub and its 27.7k would remain the largest.