Well alrighty then hopefully I am able to pay a little more attention this week. Things are getting hectic at work as we gear up for FY13. So this is my busy season. On top of that there were several trials and efforts to get the attendance formatted last week. The crazy thing is that I am now replicating exactly what Yoshou is doing and yet he and I get different results. So for now, I am going to post the numbers in the form of a text attachment. Remember in this thread we discuss the: (AAQ = Attendance Analysis Quotient. This figure is an overall attendance assessment, calculated from the weighted values of average attendance, median attendance, <10K percentage and >20K percentage. A lower figure represents a better attendance performance.) This is a slight change from Andy's old formula which used simple ordinal values and provided a full ranking point separation for two numbers that may have been within a percentage. This ordinal system did not allow for fine differences to be seen, and may have painted a somewhat skewed view of the numbers (though to be honest there is not much difference in the two end of season sets). The formula to find the weighted value for each column is: Take the annual value and subtract it from the Max value for it's column. Then take that result and divide it by the (Max-Min) for its column. For example, for the average column 17869 is the max 13756 is the min 4113 is the difference To calculate the derived value for 2010 Subtract 16675 from 17869 to get 1194. Divide 1194 by 4113 then mulitply by 100* to get 29 *Note that this step is new as some people thought whole numbers would be easier to read. MLS Attendance is based on tickets distributed not tickets scanned. Therefore if a team sells or distributes X number of tickets, then X is the attendance for that match. Even if 0 people showed up for whatever reason, X would still be the official attendance. There are a number of reasons actual attendance may be lower or higher than the announced.
Last Weeks Attendance, and Upcoming Matches: Okay last week had 11 matches, and this upcoming week will as well. For last weeks attendance see the attachment. Matches this week start with a rare Tuesday night tilt, from the simply stunning, but lengthy named BBVA Compass Stadium, DC gets double duty and starts with a Wednesday home game. Vancouver is home again, as is Montreal, this time against Henry and the Red Bulls. New England, Dallas, Colorado, Chivas, San Jose, and Portland round out the week. Chivas gets LA in the SuperClassico(tm) so that should be well attended, though not necessarily sold out. Portland should have their customary large crowd. Comparison to This Point Last Season and All-Time Averages: Again see the attachment. Chivas, DC, and Vancouver are all down at least 10% from last season so there is some worry there. Vancouver is not because of a stadium downsize so if it remains a trend it will be worrisome. AAAQ Current Season and Historical End of Season: See Attached, that is starting to become a broken record. Again this season remains very strong, still 2nd in the old measure, but gaining fast in the new. We had another sub 10k but chances are we will cross the 100 game mark and be at 4% which is remarkable. For the related data, MLS has played 96 matches, or 29.7% of the season, of those 96 matches, 60 have topped 15k, and the standard deviation is 9350. The median of team medians is 17519. Milestones: First I am not posting the predictive, I am still working out best how to present that, but I think I have a slightly better formula to use, so we will see how that works. As for milestones, just one New England crossed 250 home matches, with 3,881,659. That is good for fourth through 250. But Columbus is closing the gap again.
This week looks good but is really pretty terrible. Only three games were played in front of 20k or more. Only four games were played above 15k. And that means that seven games were below 15k, and five games failed to crack 13k. Some of this can be blamed on the avalanche of mid-week games. Basically Seattle and Montreal saved the week. I don't see this week being much better.
Nobody looks at individual games (in the long run). The average is still incredibly impressive for the week/year.
2011 Games Played: 306 Total Attnd: 5,467,880 Average Attnd: 17,869 Median Attnd: 17,639 Median-33%: 11,765 Median+33%: 23,530 <MED-33%: 56 / 18.3% >MED+33%: 36 / 11.8% Average %CAP: 81.0% Median %CAP: 85.7% Games <70%: 86 / 28.1% Games >90%: 139 / 45.4% 2012 Games Played: 96 Total Attnd: 1,805,589 Average Attnd: 18,808 Median Attnd: 18,114 Median-33%: 12,082 Median+33%: 24,163 <MED-33%: 20 / 20.8% >MED+33%: 11 / 11.5% Average %CAP: 81.2% Median %CAP: 85.0% Games <70%: 27 / 28.1% Games >90%: 42 / 43.8% NOTES 1. For information regarding 2011 stadium capacities go HERE. 2. Per 2012 MLS Team Media Guides the following are the standard capacities for each team's regular home stadium: CHI (20,000); CHV (18,800); COL (18,086); CLB (20,145); DCU (19,647); FCD (20,500); HOU (22,000); LAG (27,000); MTL (20,341); NER (20,000); NYR (25,000); PHI (18,500); POR (20,438); RSL (20,213); SJE (10,525); SEA (38,500); SKC (18,467); TFC (21,140); VAN (21,000) 3. The following are capacity exceptions to the norms above: MON 3/17 (58,500); SJE 3/17 (41,915); MTL 4/7 (22,000); MTL 4/28 (22,000); MTL 5/12 (58,500) 4. Some listed capacities are "seated only" and teams may have sold/had SRO attendance over this amount, thus putting the %CAP over 100% for certain games. For calculating the average and median %CAP for all games these 100%+ numbers were used as is.
Big crowds boost increase to 8.7 percent Soccer America The Montreal Impact drew 60,860 fans, a Canadian pro soccer record, for its 1-1 tie with the Los Angeles Galaxy at Olympic Stadium. The Houston Dynamo sold out its opener at BBVA Compass Stadium with 22,039 fans on hand for its 1-0 win over D.C. United. For MLS team attendance rankings ... * The Seattle Sounders drew another crowd in excess of 39,000 as 39,312 fans watched their 1-0 loss to Real Salt Lake. On the other hand, New England, New York, Columbus and FC Dallas all drew crowds of less than 13,000 games. Two of the three are in SSS.
Not going to crunch the numbers, but it seems this week the total attendance will fall just shy of 2,000,000.
These teams are no surprise to this thread. We just need to launch a massive, MLS-supported abstinence-only education program in these four cities.
Houston may not have a problem selling tickets,but they seem to has a problem getting said butts in their seats.
Are we watching the same game? It seems pretty full for a Tuesday night. I'm going to say 90% full which is roughly 20k
Hmm. Maybe I'm not sure what you mean, but I think your match is off in either case. If you are referencing NE, NY, Columbus, and FC Dallas, than 3 of 4 would be in SSS. If you are referencing Montreal, Houston, and Seattle, then 1 of 3 are in SSS. At least, for those games (as Montreal was in Olympic stadium). Out of curiosity, which way were you going?
