MLS Attendance Analysis: Season Finale

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by edwardgr, Nov 4, 2012.

  1. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    Thought I would have this up midweek but then Halloween and work got in the way. I am stil trying to resolve one discrepancy that I have so will post the numbers thereafter.

    Remember in this thread we discuss the:
    (AAQ = Attendance Analysis Quotient. This figure is an overall attendance assessment, calculated from the weighted values of average attendance, median attendance, <10K percentage and >20K percentage. A lower figure represents a better attendance performance.)
    This is a slight change from Andy's old formula which used simple ordinal values and provided a full ranking point separation for two numbers that may have been within a percentage. This ordinal system did not allow for fine differences to be seen, and may have painted a somewhat skewed view of the numbers (though to be honest there is not much difference in the two end of season sets).

    The formula to find the weighted value for each column is:

    Take the annual value and subtract it from the Max value for it's column. Then take that result and divide it by the (Max-Min) for its column. For example, for the average column

    17869 is the max
    13756 is the min
    4113 is the difference

    To calculate the derived value for 2010
    Subtract 16675 from 17869 to get 1194.
    Divide 1194 by 4113 then mulitply by 100* to get 29

    *Note that this step is new as some people thought whole numbers would be easier to read.

    MLS Attendance is based on tickets distributed not tickets scanned. Therefore if a team sells or distributes X number of tickets, then X is the attendance for that match. Even if 0 people showed up for whatever reason, X would still be the official attendance. There are a number of reasons actual attendance may be lower or higher than the announced.
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  2. crookeddy

    crookeddy Member

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    Are we going to have a playoff thread?
  3. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    I have not run a playoff thread for the stats before, to much of a crap shoot regarding who hosts and when so trying to compare it to previous years is not very useful. If someone want to start a general discussion that is cool.
  4. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    Last Week:
    A strong finish in the final week. No team drew less than 15k despite most everything being wrapped up heading into the week.

    Home Team Attendance
    Kansas City 19428
    Philadelphia 18533
    Montréal 19998
    Chicago 20017
    Portland 20438
    Real Salt Lake 20507
    Colorado 15453
    Columbus 15672
    FC Dallas 15805
    Los Angeles 27000
    Total 192851
    Average 19285


    This Week:
    Closed for the off season.


  5. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    Season Stats *new*:
    So the best season ever has come to an end. It was difficult to find much to complain about, we will have to watch Toronto, DC, and Chivas next year. If DC can advance they may get a small boost, Toronto's free fall is disappointing, but not surprising. Chivas does not seem to have any real solutions available at this time. New England's increase looked to be window dressing when compared to their median, but at the same time the median was not that far off from last season. Already looking forward to 2013.


    Season Stats
    Totals Thresholds Count Percent
    Games Played 323 Count >=50000 6 1.9%
    Total 6074729 Count >=30000 20 6.2%
    Average 18807 Count >=20000 105 32.5%
    Median 18393 Count >=15000 228 70.6%
    Maximum 66452 Count <10000 6 1.9%
    Minimum 6149 Count <7500 1 0.3%
    S. Deviation 8217 Count <5000 0 0.0%
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  6. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    AAQ Data:
    A cleansweep but then we knew that was coming. Average and median in excess of 18k are you kidding me? Next season we have no expansion for the frst time since 2006.


    Current
    Average Median <10k >20k
    Avg
    Pts

    Med
    Pts

    <10k
    Pts

    >20k
    Pts

    AAAQ
    Pts

    AAAQ
    Rnk
    Date
    1996 17410 15093 21.9% 26.3% 28 51 62 31 171 6 9/22
    1997 14606 12733 25.0% 16.3% 83 87 71 81 322 14 9/28
    1998 14312 11871 26.6% 16.1% 89 100 76 82 347 15 9/27
    1999 14282 12973 32.3% 15.1% 90 83 94 87 353 16 10/10
    2000 13756 12690 34.4% 12.5% 100 87 100 100 387 17 9/9
    2001 14961 13431 26.6% 17.7% 76 76 76 74 302 12 9/9
    2002 15821 14108 17.1% 18.6% 59 66 47 70 241 8 9/22
    2003 14900 13719 23.3% 18.0% 77 72 66 73 287 11 10/26
    2004 15549 13223 24.7% 25.3% 65 79 70 36 250 9 10/17
    2005 15112 12619 27.1% 17.7% 73 89 78 74 313 13 10/16
    2006 15426 14113 19.3% 18.2% 67 66 54 72 258 10 10/15
    2007 16767 15353 8.2% 29.7% 40 47 19 14 120 3 10/21
    2008 16460 15188 11.0% 24.8% 46 49 28 39 162 5 10/26
    2009 16037 14686 14.7% 20.9% 55 57 39 58 209 7 10/25
    2010 16675 15332 7.5% 22.5% 42 47 17 50 156 4 10/16
    2011 17869 17639 5.6% 28.1% 19 12 11 22 64 2 10/23
    2012 18807 18393 1.9% 32.5% 0 0 0 0 0 1 10/28
  7. OleGunnar20

    OleGunnar20 Member+

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    so games with less than 70% capacity were down from 28.1% in 2011 to 21.1% in 2012 (a 7% improvement. and games with greater than 90% capacity were up from 45.4% in 2011 to 50.2% in 2012 (a nearly 5% improvement). and fully HALF of all MLS games were played at 90% capacity or better!

    2011
    Games Played: 306
    Total Attnd: 5,467,880
    Average Attnd: 17,869
    Median Attnd: 17,639

    Median-33%: 11,765
    Median+33%: 23,530
    <MED-33%: 56 / 18.3%
    >MED+33%: 36 / 11.8%

    Average %CAP: 81.0%
    Median %CAP: 85.7%
    Games <70%: 86 / 28.1%
    Games >90%: 139 / 45.4%

    2012
    Games Played: 323
    Total Attnd: 6,074,729
    Average Attnd: 18,807
    Median Attnd: 18,393

    Median-33%: 12,268
    Median+33%: 24,536
    <MED-33%: 54 / 16.7%
    >MED+33%: 31 / 9.6%

    Average %CAP: 85.6% (84.8%)*
    Median %CAP: 90.1% (89.9%)*
    Games <70%: 68/ 21.1%
    Games >90%: 162 / 50.2%

    NOTES
    1. For information regarding 2011 stadium capacities go HERE.

    2. Per 2012 MLS Team Media Guides the following are the standard capacities for each team's regular home stadium: CHI (20,000); CHV (18,800); COL (18,086); CLB (20,145); DCU (19,647); FCD (20,500); HOU (22,000); LAG (27,000); MTL (20,341); NER (20,000); NYR (25,000); PHI (18,500); POR (20,438); RSL (20,213); SJE (10,525); SEA (38,500); SKC (18,467); TFC (21,140); VAN (21,000)

    3. The following are capacity exceptions to the norms above: MON 3/17 (58,500); SJE 3/17 (41,915); MTL 4/7 (22,000); MTL 4/28 (22,000); MTL 5/12 (58,500); MTL 5/19 (22,000); SJE 6/30 (50,000); SSFC 8/5 (67,000); SSFC 8/18 (67,000); SSFC 10/7 (67,000)

    4. Some listed capacities are "seated only" and teams may have sold/had SRO attendance over this amount, thus putting the %CAP over 100% for certain games. For calculating the average and median %CAP for all games these 100%+ numbers were used as is (and the * numbers reflect the average and median if individual game %CAP over 100% are counted as just 100%).
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  8. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    Comparison To Last Season and All-Time:
    Nothing new to say that has not been said often during the season.


    Team
    Played Current Last Diff Alltime Diff
    Chicago 17 16409 14273 15.0% 15529 5.7%
    Chivas USA 17 13056 14830 -12.0% 15863 -17.7%
    Colorado 17 15175 14838 2.3% 13971 8.6%
    Columbus 17 14397 12185 18.2% 15238 -5.5%
    DC United 17 13846 15196 -8.9% 17194 -19.5%
    FC Dallas 17 14199 12861 10.4% 12203 16.4%
    Houston 17 21015 17694 18.8% 17327 21.3%
    Los Angeles 17 23136 23335 -0.9% 22067 4.8%
    Montréal 17 22722 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
    New England 17 14001 13222 5.9% 15610 -10.3%
    Philadelphia 17 18053 18258 -1.1% 18724 -3.6%
    Portland 17 20438 18827 8.6% 18827 8.6%
    Red Bull NY 17 18281 19691 -7.2% 17159 6.5%
    Real Salt Lake 17 19087 17594 8.5% 16828 13.4%
    San Jose 17 13293 11858 12.1% 12820 3.7%
    Seattle 17 43144 38495 12.1% 35329 22.1%
    Sporting KC 17 19404 17810 9.0% 11386 70.4%
    Toronto FC 17 18155 20267 -10.4% 20264 -10.4%
    Vancouver 17 19475 20412 -4.6% 20412 -4.6%
    Overall - 18807 17869 5.2% 15739 19.5%


    No Milestones in the final week.
    jayd8888 and Bariaga repped this.
  9. OleGunnar20

    OleGunnar20 Member+

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    Manchester United FC
    2012 TEAMS by %CAP

    Sporting KC - 105.1%
    Portland Timbers FC - 100.0%
    Seattle Sounders FC - 99.1%
    Philadelphia Union - 97.6%
    Houston Dynamo - 95.4%
    Real Salt Lake - 94.4%
    Vancouver Whitecaps FC - 92.7%
    Montreal Impact - 90.6%
    San Jose Earthquakes - 90.5%

    Toronto FC - 85.9%
    LA Galaxy - 85.7%
    Colorado Rapids - 83.9%
    Chicago Fire - 82.0%

    Red Bull New York - 73.1%
    Columbus Crew - 71.5%
    DC United - 70.5%
    NE Revolution - 70.0%
    Chivas USA - 69.5%
    FC Dallas - 69.3%
  10. OleGunnar20

    OleGunnar20 Member+

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    Club:
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    2012 TEAMS by %VAR to 2011

    Montreal Impact: +97.2% (22,772 / 11,549*)
    Houston Dynamo: +18.8% (21,015 / 17,694**)
    Columbus Crew: +18.2% (14,397 / 12,185)
    Chicago Fire: +15.0% (16,409 / 14,274)
    SJ Earthquakes: +12.1% (13.293 / 11,858)
    Seattle Sounders FC: +12.1% (43,144 / 38,495)
    FC Dallas: +10.4% (14,199 / 12,861)
    Sporting KC: +9.0% (19,404 / 17,810)
    Portland Timbers FC: +8.6% (20,438 / 18,827)
    Real Salt Lake: +8.5% (19,087 / 17,594)
    NE Revolution: +5.9% (14,001 / 13,222)
    Colorado Rapids: +2.3% (15,175 / 14,838)

    LA Galaxy: -0.9% (23,136 / 23,335)
    Philadelphia Union: -1.1% (18,053 / 18,258)

    Vancouver Whitecaps FC: -4.6% (19,475 / 20,412)
    Red Bull New York: -7.2% (18,281 / 19,691)
    DC United: -8.9% (13,846 / 15,196)
    Toronto FC: -10.4% (18,155 / 20,267)
    Chivas USA: -12.0% (13,056 / 14,830)

    * Represents D2 Montreal Impact 2011 average attendance in NASL
    ** Represents Houston Dynamo's 2011 MLS average attendance in Robertson Stadium
  11. crookeddy

    crookeddy Member

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    Apr 27, 2004
    Meanwhile 20689 in Houston. Kind of disaapointing that they did not sell out given previous Hoiston playoff attendance.
  12. ImaPuppy

    ImaPuppy Member+

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    Right behind you...
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    Texans game was at noon today at home. That had a big something to do with it.
  13. crookeddy

    crookeddy Member

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    Will MLS playoff games ever become "must see" like NBA and NHL playoffs?
  14. ImaPuppy

    ImaPuppy Member+

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    I mean, they will once nothing is stopping people from coming. NFL games at the same time (especially in really big football markets like Houston), Halloween, etc. definitely don't help the cause.

    If we get to the next round and the game isn't on a Sunday I'd bet my life on the Dynamo selling out well in advance.
  15. profiled

    profiled Moderator Staff Member

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    trip76, artml, edwardgr and 1 other person repped this.
  16. crookeddy

    crookeddy Member

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    Sellout at the HDC. Galaxy sell out 5 out of the last 6 games, with a super tiny 14.7k on Thursday.
  17. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    Does it build tables with the new bigsoccer table format, or does it use the code box? Do you have a link to an example of the output on BS? If it is not using the new bigsoccer tables I think Knave would also be highly interested in it.
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  18. profiled

    profiled Moderator Staff Member

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    The new table format.

    I used it here - Most Lethal Striking Partnerships in MLS?
  19. Heist

    Heist Member+

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    They also had only a few days during which to sell tickets.
  20. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator Staff Member

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    Thanks profiled. I will definitely see how that goes with my team centric data, as I have not yet created an export sheet for that work book, this may save me some time.
  21. profiled

    profiled Moderator Staff Member

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    Let me know if you need it to do something else, i'm happy to provide whatever help to you guys, you provide so much content for these boards its the least I can do.

    Or if you have data in something other then excel and need it dumped I can do that as well.
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  22. Kejsare

    Kejsare Member

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    Timbers must be the first team with the same attendance all season, no?
  23. OleGunnar20

    OleGunnar20 Member+

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    well the second, to themselves who did the same thing last year.
  24. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator Staff Member

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    Heh. Probably the first team that was so slavish to their capacity. The Galaxy are the only other team with a hard cap for reported numbers, but they don't sell out every game.
  25. Kejsare

    Kejsare Member

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    Au contraire, they increased capacity two games last season.

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