They will not be in the new digs for 2015 I believe. Not sure what type of capacity they will have in the first year, but I would assume it is bigger than the 18k. 2016 will be a different story.
in the most recent things i've read and heard about the stadium the number they are now putting out there is 19k.
IIRC they may open the new stadium during the 2015 season, if all goes well. Regardless, the citrus bowl can obviously reach any capacity the FO chooses, I expect them to do a ton of market research and have a good handle on true demand. There is really no way we can predict it. @edwardgr regardless of the capacity, isn't having a stable just below average team a net positive for the overall average? or is that just for median? I mean that given the large number of fluctuating teams we currently have, having a new team (hypothetically) getting 18,000 each game is "good" right
Any value added onto a list which is below average will cause the new average to be lower than the old one was without that value. Overly simple example, but one that demonstrates the point. List 1: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 - # elements 5, sum 25, average 5 List 2: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 3 - # elements 6, sum 28, average 4.67 List 3: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 4.5 - # elements 6, sum 29.5, average 4 + 5.5/6
Here's the thing about the really bad attendance teams...they can go up 2000 per game and still be awful, and nobody will notice it. Seattle's bump of half that will get all of the attention. Look at Colorado and Dallas...they have steadily been increasing their average attendance with very, very little notice in these threads, because they've gone from "awful" to "bad." In a year or two, they'll be "below average." Still nobody will notice. Point being, Chivas could go to 11K and still be the butt of all the jokes around here, but that kind of increase would be very significant in the context of "can MLS average 19,000?"
That is one of the reasons I have added the team data to the weekly posts. It is certainly something other sites were doing but adding it here provides more of a complete picture. 10k from Chivas would be both a disappointment compared to their historical numbers and signs of improvement. So people will take notice even while we complain
So this might address what @fuzzx was asking. A new "just below average" team would hurt the average. But an existing "really below average" team that increases its attendance to "just below average" would improve the overall league average.
Do we have a list of the potential increases for each team (i.e. Total Capacity - 2013 Averages)? The Galaxy have to be up their pretty high on the list (ignoring artificially limited stadiums)?
I used the capacities listed here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_MLS_Season Chivas: 18,634 NE: 7,541 DC: 5,821 Dallas: 5,820 NY: 5,728 LA: 4,848 Chicago: 4,772 Columbus: 4,065 Toronto: 3,728 Colorado: 2,646 Houston: 2,077 Salt Lake: 995 Vancouver: 962 Philadelphia: 633 No real potential (alphabetical): Kansas City Montreal Portland San Jose Seattle Notes: Chivas was calculated based on 27,000 capacity. I know they operate on reduced capacity, but their 2013 attendance was so low that they will be top of this list in any case. Also: I couldn't easily find the capacity they actually operate with. LA is 6th of 14 teams which have any significant potential to increase in attendance.
So in theory we have 1,160,590 extra fans a year to fill things up (just took the numbers above * 17).
And that being said, if Orlando is just shy of the target that is still better than being significantly shy. So while it would not help per se, it certainly hurts far less than a consistent significant gap. And a stable 18k attendance would make the Median more stable in that upper range, but would not in and of itself help get to a 19k median.
Don't forget San Jose has two large stadium games this year. Stanford against LA so expect a sellout or close to, and opening Levi Stadium against Seattle, also a likely sellout. I would not be at all surprised to see San Jose at or near 15k for the year (if not greater).
Yeah, a "more stable" media is more what I was thinking of. To reformulate my point, a new stable 18k team means that failures and fluctuations by other teams have less of an impact on the overall average.
I'd be impressed if Chivas could go up that much. I don't have any particular faith that they will (not clear to me they've improved anything despite all the roster and coaching changes), but it'd definitely be an impressive bump.
They won't. Every league needs a whipping boy... a LA Clippers if you will. Darwin says so. The fact that we are so appalled at their performance as an organization, actually highlights how effective most of the teams are run. The exception proves the rule.
The same Clippers who are currently 15 games ahead of the Lakers? If so, I guess I like Chivas's chances going forward.
They only had about half the stadium open, so the section that were looked pretty full. Quite a few Shirak/Armenia fans there, maybe 50/50. Sad to think that Chivas would love to have that during the regular season. The next pre-season home game is Galaxy vs. Galaxy II. Should be interesting to see if they can keep these numbers up through pre-season.
Nice story about tickets selling fast in Fresno for Saturday's LA/SJ match... http://news.yahoo.com/video/tickets-selling-fast-san-jose-050915247.html They have sold more than 8000 tickets so far and should sell out the 12,500 seat venue by the weekend.
It's the Derby! Gonna be interesting to see if the crowd is predominantly LA or SJ since the game is smack in the middle of the 2 cities.
Yes I suppose that was an understatement on my part. That is exceptional for a pre-season match. Particularly one that is not on the cusp of the season, we are still three weeks away.