So I am back with an actual full post this week, and not the away from statistics thread that was last week. It went mostly smooth save for the lurker who did not read the opening the post. So if you are a lurker in this thread, throw us a line once in a while it is good to know who else is reading if not responding. I was a lurker in Andy's old threads for a long time before taking on the posting duties. Remember in this thread we discuss the: (AAQ = Attendance Analysis Quotient. This figure is an overall attendance assessment, calculated from the weighted values of average attendance, median attendance, <10K percentage and >20K percentage. A lower figure represents a better attendance performance.) This is a slight change from Andy's old formula which used simple ordinal values and provided a full ranking point separation for two numbers that may have been within a percentage. This ordinal system did not allow for fine differences to be seen, and may have painted a somewhat skewed view of the numbers (though to be honest there is not much difference in the two end of season sets). The formula to find the weighted value for each column is: Take the annual value and subtract it from the Max value for it's column. Then take that result and divide it by the (Max-Min) for its column. For example, for the average column 18801 is the max 13756 is the min 5045 is the difference To calculate the derived value for 2011 Subtract 17869 from 18801 to get 932. Divide 932 by 5045 then multiply by 100 to get 18 MLS Attendance is based on tickets distributed not tickets scanned. Therefore if a team sells or distributes X number of tickets, then X is the attendance for that match. Even if 0 people showed up for whatever reason, X would still be the official attendance. There are a number of reasons actual attendance may be lower or higher than the announced.
Last Week: We had our first midweek match, it was okay for a Wednesday by historical standards. We also saw Chivas return to form, with a sub 7500, which was bolstered by a good sized traveling group from Seattle. FC Dallas continues their impressive turn around, and Vancouver has quietly sold out all 4 matches so far. The overall weekly average was the weakest of the season, but it does not appear to have adversely affected the season ranking to much. Home Team Attendance Red Bull New York 14768 Philadelphia 17307 17301 Chicago 15743 Colorado 12306 Vancouver 21000 Columbus 11437 Kansas City 20306 FC Dallas 17406 Real Salt Lake 20496 CD Chivas USA 7499 Total 158268 Average 15827 This Week: Red Bulls once again get us started on Wednesday with the Dynamo coming to town. Then on Saturday things start early in Seattle and Montreal kicks at the same time as well. Three Eastern evening matches follow with DC, Columbus and New England all hosting. Then we head back west where RSL welcomes Vancouver, and San Jose closes out Saturday night with Chivas heading up the 5. Sunday sees but one match, when Houston heads home to welcome the Timbers.
Season Stats: Remember in the count columns everything above the 15k cell is a subset of the 15k number, and likewise everything below the 10k is a subset of that. Not that most of this matters this early, and practically nothing is gleaned from it, it is best to get into posting form early. We are 62 matches or 19.2% of the way through this season. Season Stats Totals …… Threshold Count Percent Played 62 …… >=50000 0 0.0% Total 1119438 …… >=30000 3 4.8% Average 18055 …… >=20000 23 37.1% Median 18013 …… >=15000 44 71.0% Maximum 39240 …… <10000 4 6.5% Minimum 6684 …… <7500 2 3.2% Deviation 6482 …… <5000 0 0.0%
AAQ Data: This past week could have really put a dent in this season, but so far we are marching right along. A solid 3rd place showing thus far but we should easily pass 1996 by seasons end. We are also very close to the 2012 numbers at this point. This season may prove more interesting than it initially suggested. Historical Average Median <10k >20k Avg Pts Med Pts <10k Pts >20k Pts AAAQ Pts AAAQ Rnk Date Games 1996 17410 15093 21.9% 26.3% 28 51 62 31 171 7 9/22 160 1997 14606 12733 25.0% 16.3% 83 87 71 81 322 15 9/28 160 1998 14312 11871 26.6% 16.1% 89 100 76 82 347 16 9/27 192 1999 14282 12973 32.3% 15.1% 90 83 94 87 353 17 10/10 192 2000 13756 12690 34.4% 12.5% 100 87 100 100 387 18 9/9 192 2001 14961 13431 26.6% 17.7% 76 76 76 74 302 13 9/9 158 2002 15821 14108 17.1% 18.6% 59 66 47 70 241 9 9/22 140 2003 14900 13719 23.3% 18.0% 77 72 66 73 287 12 10/26 150 2004 15549 13223 24.7% 25.3% 64 79 70 36 250 10 10/17 150 2005 15112 12619 27.1% 17.7% 73 89 78 74 313 14 10/16 192 2006 15426 14113 19.3% 18.2% 67 66 54 72 258 11 10/15 192 2007 16767 15353 8.2% 29.7% 40 47 19 14 120 4 10/21 195 2008 16460 15188 11.0% 24.8% 46 49 28 39 162 6 10/26 210 2009 16037 14686 14.7% 20.9% 55 57 39 58 209 8 10/25 225 2010 16675 15332 7.5% 22.5% 42 47 17 50 156 5 10/16 240 2011 17869 17639 5.6% 28.1% 18 12 11 22 63 3 10/23 306 2012 18801 18393 1.9% 32.5% 0 0 0 0 0 1 10/28 323 2013 18608 18359 5.6% 32.5% 4 1 11 0 16 2 10/20 323 Historical Average Median <10k >20k Avg Pts Med Pts <10k Pts >20k Pts AAAQ Pts AAAQ Rnk Date Games Current Average Median <10k >20k Avg Pts Med Pts <10k Pts >20k Pts AAAQ Pts AAAQ Rnk Date Games 1996 23795 21711 16.1% 58.1% 0 0 47 0 47 1 5/15 31 1997 16591 14485 25.8% 25.8% 67 78 79 67 291 12 5/3 31 1998 15370 12939 13.9% 21.6% 79 94 40 76 289 11 4/29 37 1999 14166 13697 32.4% 16.2% 90 86 100 87 363 18 5/1 37 2000 13099 12399 32.4% 13.5% 100 100 100 93 393 19 4/28 37 2001 14800 14496 16.7% 10.0% 84 77 49 100 311 15 5/5 30 2002 16228 13493 14.8% 18.5% 71 88 43 82 284 9 5/4 27 2003 14287 13722 31.0% 20.7% 89 86 95 78 348 16 5/17 29 2004 15664 13811 27.6% 31.0% 76 85 84 56 302 14 5/15 29 2005 14512 12449 27.0% 16.2% 87 99 82 87 356 17 5/14 37 2006 16627 16427 16.2% 24.3% 67 57 47 70 241 7 5/13 37 2007 14898 14087 13.5% 18.9% 83 82 39 81 285 10 5/12 37 2008 15828 15412 15.0% 32.5% 74 68 44 53 239 6 5/3 40 2009 15006 14051 16.3% 16.3% 82 82 48 87 299 13 4/25 43 2010 16667 14356 15.2% 23.9% 67 79 44 71 261 8 5/5 46 2011 17394 18122 8.5% 32.2% 60 39 22 54 175 4 4/30 59 2012 18876 18332 1.6% 33.9% 46 36 0 50 133 2 4/21 62 2013 17541 17299 8.1% 27.4% 58 47 21 64 191 5 4/20 62 2014 18055 18013 6.5% 37.1% 54 40 16 44 153 3 4/19 62 Current Average Median <10k >20k Avg Pts Med Pts <10k Pts >20k Pts AAAQ Pts AAAQ Rnk Date Games
Comparison To Last Season and All-Time: So far many teams are up on their numbers from last season, with several being essentially flat. At the same time many are also down from their running averages. Hard to say what that means really as the overall numbers remain fairly high. I think we are going to see almost everyone up at seasons end, with many beating the all time average as well. I think New England will just miss their all time, while Chicago will just surpass it. I think Montreal will also be down slightly from All Time but will still top 20k in average. Team Played Current Last AllTime Average Last +/- AllTime +/- Chicago 3 14890 11841 15569 25.7% -4.4% CD Chivas USA 4 9378 7624 14638 23.0% -35.9% Colorado 3 13215 14041 14211 -5.9% -7.0% Columbus 3 13666 13637 15238 0.2% -10.3% DC United 4 11544 14619 16774 -21.0% -31.2% FC Dallas 5 16819 15937 12517 5.5% 34.4% Houston 3 20922 17954 18168 16.5% 15.2% Los Angeles 2 23241 19621 22137 18.4% 5.0% Montréal 3 23530 26913 21688 -12.6% 8.5% New England 2 13681 11250 15466 21.6% -11.5% Philadelphia 4 17415 17344 18330 0.4% -5.0% Portland 4 20814 20674 19980 0.7% 4.2% Red Bull NY 3 16845 16728 17366 0.7% -3.0% Real Salt Lake 3 19948 18543 17380 7.6% 14.8% San Jose 3 10525 10525 12848 0.0% -18.1% Seattle 3 38717 39157 38797 -1.1% -0.2% Sporting KC 4 19736 19413 12378 1.7% 59.4% Toronto FC 2 22591 22173 19614 1.9% 15.2% Vancouver 4 21000 19414 19975 8.2% 5.1% Overall 62 18055 17541 16263 2.9% 11.0% Team Played Current Last AllTime Average Last +/- AllTime +/- The second table is more focused on this particular match number for each team. Recent is the most recent home attendance, current is the current season average, average and median are the teams average and median for this game number, and finally running average is where each team would be on average through this point of the season. Team Recent Current Average Median Running Average Average +/- Median +/- Running +/- Chicago 15743 14890 13453 12515 15187 17.0% 25.8% -2.0% CD Chivas USA 7499 9378 12139 13113 13757 -38.2% -42.8% -31.8% Colorado 12306 13215 11203 10489 13482 9.8% 17.3% -2.0% Columbus 11437 13666 13990 13774 14730 -18.2% -17.0% -7.2% DC United 12364 11544 16398 14859 17518 -24.6% -16.8% -34.1% FC Dallas 17406 16819 11356 10770 12833 53.3% 61.6% 31.1% Houston 22202 20922 15938 15100 17856 39.3% 47.0% 17.2% Los Angeles 20847 23241 20852 19461 24568 0.0% 7.1% -5.4% Montréal 19313 23530 17904 17904 30332 7.9% 7.9% -22.4% New England 14259 13681 12606 10904 15484 13.1% 30.8% -11.6% Philadelphia 17301 17415 18091 18312 19351 -4.4% -5.5% -10.0% Portland 20814 20814 19913 20438 19913 4.5% 1.8% 4.5% Red Bull NY 14768 16845 14967 13323 18389 -1.3% 10.8% -8.4% Real Salt Lake 20496 19948 16878 14900 17221 21.4% 37.6% 15.8% San Jose 10525 10525 9784 9518 12134 7.6% 10.6% -13.3% Seattle 38469 38717 35535 36223 36025 8.3% 6.2% 7.5% Sporting KC 20306 19736 10565 9391 12144 92.2% 116.2% 62.5% Toronto FC 22591 22591 19297 18968 21307 17.1% 19.1% 6.0% Vancouver 21000 21000 19601 19967 19565 7.1% 5.2% 7.3% Team Recent Current Average Median Running Average Average +/- Median +/- Running +/- Milestones: One, Portland crossed the 1 million mark in road attendance, doing so in road match 54. They are currently the fastest team to the 1m road mark. DC held the best mark at 57 before this. Team Centric Thread is here @aperfectring and @fuzzx the thread is ready for your updates.
Quick correction (based on mlssoccer.com postings) before I post my numbers: Philly was 17301 It looks like my calculations with that number, match your total attendance overall, though, so it is likely just a typo.
Game Ratings These numbers are an attempt to assign a rating of how well an individual game's attendance matches up with performance of the league as a whole, and the individual team. The reference data is the previous year's average and standard deviation, for both the league, and the individual team. The numbers are the normal distribution's CDF multiplied by 100, and rounded to the nearest whole number. This means the valid range is from 0 to 100. DateTeamAttendanceLeague ScoreTeam Score 2014-04-16 New York Red Bulls 14768 32 15 2014-04-19 Philadelphia Union 17301 43 31 2014-04-19 Chicago Fire 15743 36 57 2014-04-19 Colorado Rapids 12306 21 7 2014-04-19 Vancouver Whitecaps 21000 62 75 2014-04-19 Columbus Crew 11437 18 8 2014-04-19 Sporting Kansas City 20306 58 77 2014-04-19 FC Dallas 17406 44 75 2014-04-19 Real Salt Lake 20496 59 81 2014-04-19 Chivas USA 7499 8 33 If you were just looking at the average attendance for the week, you'd think that this was a pretty horrible week for attendance. That is somewhat correct based on these numbers. However, half of the teams exceeded their average from last year, and most of those by a decent margin, which is nice.
Floating Window A floating window number is the average attendance for that team over the last X number of games, or X calendar years. So, for 17 games, it is the average of the last 17-n games from the previous season and the n games from the current season. For 1 year, it is the average from one year prior to the noted date through the noted date, inclusive. e.g. for 2014-03-10 it would be from 2013-03-10 through 2014-03-10 inclusive. For each floating window size, a prior and a current value are provided, as well as the difference between them. The dates for prior and current are specified below, and the values there are inclusive of games played on that date. Floating window for X number of games Prior date: 2014-04-14 Current date: 2014-04-21 TeamPrior 1Current 1Diff 1Prior 5Current 5Diff 5Prior 17Current 17Diff 17 Chicago Fire 12699 15743 3044 16819 16546 -273 15579 15766 187 Chivas USA 15008 7499 -7509 9757 9707 -50 8821 8779 -42 Colorado Rapids 12203 12306 103 15332 15165 -167 15466 15294 -172 Columbus Crew 12045 11437 -608 17037 15522 -1515 16241 16085 -156 D.C. United 12364 12364 0 11981 11981 0 12922 12922 0 FC Dallas 17070 17406 336 16341 16819 478 15452 15633 181 Houston Dynamo 22202 22202 0 20309 20309 0 20447 20447 0 Los Angeles Galaxy 20847 20847 0 21276 21276 0 22578 22578 0 Montreal Impact 19313 19313 0 21700 21700 0 20007 20007 0 New England Revolution 14259 14259 0 18879 18879 0 15130 15130 0 New York Red Bulls 15225 14768 -457 21036 20195 -841 19338 19481 143 Philadelphia Union 18015 17301 -714 17963 17624 -339 17945 17884 -61 Portland Timbers 20814 20814 0 20786 20786 0 20707 20707 0 Real Salt Lake 18881 20496 1615 20157 20156 -1 19136 19465 329 San Jose Earthquakes 10525 10525 0 10525 10525 0 12765 12765 0 Seattle Sounders 38469 38469 0 44240 44240 0 43961 43961 0 Sporting Kansas City 19838 20306 468 19362 19575 213 19778 19785 7 Toronto FC 22591 22591 0 17380 17380 0 18181 18181 0 Vancouver Whitecaps 21000 21000 0 20861 21000 139 20351 20412 61 Floating window for X number of years Prior date: 2014-04-14 Current date: 2014-04-21 TeamPrior 1Current 1Diff 1Prior 5Current 5Diff 5 Chicago Fire 15768 15951 183 15309 15369 60 Chivas USA 8859 8779 -80 12951 12854 -97 Colorado Rapids 15481 15496 15 14305 14281 -24 Columbus Crew 16241 15975 -266 14432 14396 -36 D.C. United 12891 12891 0 14490 14491 1 FC Dallas 15452 15633 181 13427 13555 128 Houston Dynamo 20447 20541 94 18765 18839 74 Los Angeles Galaxy 22743 22532 -211 22285 22285 0 Montreal Impact 19816 20007 191 21837 21837 0 New England Revolution 15130 15130 0 13804 13804 0 New York Red Bulls 19338 19572 234 17851 17927 76 Philadelphia Union 17945 17910 -35 18293 18278 -15 Portland Timbers 20705 20707 2 20040 20040 0 Real Salt Lake 19136 19465 329 18124 18153 29 San Jose Earthquakes 12905 12905 0 12389 12346 -43 Seattle Sounders 43961 43961 0 39114 39114 0 Sporting Kansas City 19778 19808 30 16026 16078 52 Toronto FC 18310 18466 156 19477 19477 0 Vancouver Whitecaps 20351 20387 36 20032 20050 18
Floating window for X number of games Prior date: 2014-02-01 Current date: 2014-04-21 TeamPrior 1Current 1Diff 1Prior 5Current 5Diff 5Prior 17Current 17Diff 17 Chicago Fire 19889 15743 -4146 18012 16546 -1466 15228 15766 538 Chivas USA 11024 7499 -3525 7956 9707 1751 8366 8779 413 Colorado Rapids 18103 12306 -5797 16434 15165 -1269 15440 15294 -146 Columbus Crew 17505 11437 -6068 18075 15522 -2553 16080 16085 5 D.C. United 13731 12364 -1367 13811 11981 -1830 13646 12922 -724 FC Dallas 15017 17406 2389 13810 16819 3009 15373 15633 260 Houston Dynamo 22345 22202 -143 19466 20309 843 19923 20447 524 Los Angeles Galaxy 25418 20847 -4571 21540 21276 -264 22152 22578 426 Montreal Impact 18993 19313 320 19785 21700 1915 20603 20007 -596 New England Revolution 26548 14259 -12289 17746 18879 1133 14844 15130 286 New York Red Bulls 25219 14768 -10451 20804 20195 -609 19461 19481 20 Philadelphia Union 18462 17301 -1161 18644 17624 -1020 17867 17884 17 Portland Timbers 20674 20814 140 20674 20786 112 20674 20707 33 Real Salt Lake 20447 20496 49 20018 20156 138 19218 19465 247 San Jose Earthquakes 10525 10525 0 10427 10525 98 12765 12765 0 Seattle Sounders 66216 38469 -27747 47548 44240 -3308 44038 43961 -77 Sporting Kansas City 18932 20306 1374 19391 19575 184 19709 19785 76 Toronto FC 13211 22591 9380 15111 17380 2269 18131 18181 50 Vancouver Whitecaps 21000 21000 0 20414 21000 586 20038 20412 374 Floating window for X number of years Prior date: 2014-02-01 Current date: 2014-04-21 TeamPrior 1Current 1Diff 1Prior 5Current 5Diff 5 Chicago Fire 15228 15951 723 15284 15369 85 Chivas USA 8366 8779 413 13102 12854 -248 Colorado Rapids 15440 15496 56 14291 14281 -10 Columbus Crew 16080 15975 -105 14341 14396 55 D.C. United 13646 12891 -755 14630 14491 -139 FC Dallas 15373 15633 260 13213 13555 342 Houston Dynamo 19923 20541 618 18660 18839 179 Los Angeles Galaxy 22152 22532 380 22153 22285 132 Montreal Impact 20603 20007 -596 21688 21837 149 New England Revolution 14844 15130 286 13777 13804 27 New York Red Bulls 19461 19572 111 17783 17927 144 Philadelphia Union 17867 17910 43 18331 18278 -53 Portland Timbers 20674 20707 33 19980 20040 60 Real Salt Lake 19218 19465 247 17930 18153 223 San Jose Earthquakes 12765 12905 140 12360 12346 -14 Seattle Sounders 44038 43961 -77 38789 39114 325 Sporting Kansas City 19709 19808 99 15714 16078 364 Toronto FC 18131 18466 335 19424 19477 53 Vancouver Whitecaps 20038 20387 349 19975 20050 75
So far this year, only 4 teams are down, and one of those is Seattle due to not having an early season home Cascadia match. DC's decline is the most worrying of the bunch, because it keeps increasing each time they have a home game. Montreal's has been staying steady, and is likely due to smaller crowds at the two big-stadium games to start the season. Colorado's a bit down compared to the beginning of the year, and is worth keeping an eye on. On the positive side, Toronto has completely made up for the lack of a big-stadium game already, and is now trending positive on the year. Many teams have posted a rather strong beginning to a season. I'm not sure we'll overtake 2012, but so far we are looking really strong to beat out 2013 for second place.
Here's my stuff. Most importantly I figured out a way to get rid of the colors without recoding my macro! Huzzah! First, Capacity organized by home game. Montreal's temporary low numbers hurt the averages somewhat, but that's representative of reality . Only one big game next year should help, and might even boost the opener back to previous levels. CapacitiesTeamGame 1Game 2Game 3Game 4Game 5Team Average20000Chicago81.14%63.50%72.32%18800Chivas USA44.26%35.55%79.83%39.89%49.88%17424Colorado86.86%70.04%78.45%20145Columbus86.95%59.79%56.77%67.84%19647DC United70.44%48.07%53.58%62.93%58.76%20500FC Dallas87.86%75.92%78.27%83.27%84.91%82.04%22000Houston101.45%82.93%100.92%95.10%27000Los Angeles94.94%77.21%86.08%20521Montréal73.53%65.06%52.20%63.60%20000New England65.52%71.30%68.41%18500Philadelphia100.82%84.82%97.38%93.52%94.13%20814Portland100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%20213Real Salt Lake101.25%93.41%101.40%98.69%25000Red Bull NY82.17%76.13%59.07%72.46%10525San Jose100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%38300Seattle102.45%100.37%100.44%101.09%18467Sporting KC105.22%104.88%107.42%109.96%106.87%21859Toronto FC103.35%103.35%103.35%21000Vancouver100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%Week average88.85%79.60%84.81%84.22%84.91%84.48% Here it is by week. I'll have to use a new method soon, it's getting a bit wide. I'll probably screenshot it and post an image. This week was the lowest yet, but we still managed to squeak above an 80% average. Also, I just noticed Toronto posted identical numbers for it's sellout: 22591. This looks like a new SRO capacity number. Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Team Average20000Chicago81.14%63.50%72.32%18800Chivas USA44.26%35.55%79.83%39.89%49.88%17424Colorado86.86%70.04%78.45%20145Columbus86.95%59.79%56.77%67.84%19647DC United70.44%48.07%53.58%62.93%58.76%20500FC Dallas87.86%75.92%78.27%83.27%84.91%82.04%22000Houston101.45%82.93%100.92%95.10%27000Los Angeles94.94%77.21%86.08%20521Montréal73.53%65.06%52.20%63.60%20000New England65.52%71.30%68.41%18500Philadelphia100.82%84.82%97.38%93.52%94.13%20814Portland100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%20213Real Salt Lake101.25%93.41%101.40%98.69%25000Red Bull NY82.17%76.13%59.07%72.46%10525San Jose100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%38300Seattle102.45%100.37%100.44%101.09%18467Sporting KC105.22%104.88%107.42%109.96%106.87%21859Toronto FC103.35%103.35%103.35%21000Vancouver100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%Week average87.68%88.38%86.60%83.46%86.93%87.73%80.69%85.92%Week average2114719167185751749817578173111582618158Week Sum169179153333167179157484158203155798158262159920 Finally some simple raw numbers I have sitting around: AverageSumChicago1446428927Chivas USA1000430012Colorado1366927338Columbus1478129562DC United1127033811FC Dallas1654049620Houston2092262767Los Angeles2563425634Montréal2563951278New England1310313103Philadelphia1717134342Portland2081462442Real Salt Lake1967439347Red Bull NY1788435767San Jose1052521050Seattle38717116150Sporting KC1954658637Toronto FC2259122591Vancouver2100063000Total18629805378
Good sign. 4 days till our true home opener, and the ticketmaster seating chart suggests a near sellout. Though, with our current performance, I can imagine us getting minimal walkups and late sales thus falling short.
That is certainly the case, I don't have the numbers in front of me but I think we are looking at a 80k boost. Without the full Cascadia matches Portland probably would have slipped in at 58-60 games (Philly and LA did it in 59). So one could say Seattle invented making their rivals the biggest road draw .
As a "since the beginning of existence" statistic, this is surely correct. I wonder how many road matches the LA Galaxy played from the moment that Beckham suited up before they hit a million road attendance... if they did at all.
In theory, away game attendance could be used to gauge the popularity of a team. The more popular the team, the better the away game attendance. In reality, however, very few MLS teams see the attendance needle move meaningfully based on their opponent. Away game attendance, therefore, is more a measure of the overall success of the league than of the popularity of a given team. Put another way, if a MLS 2.0 team beats an MLS 1.0 team to an away attendance milestone, it has more to do with the league average attendance now being 19 000 versus 14 000 than it does with the popularity of that particular team.
Beckham only drew big crowds the first time around I would say this is by and large true, with the Galaxy as the obvious exception. They are currently 1 million up in away attendance, and not all of that can be attributed to Becks, they have for whatever reasons always drawn well, and conversely I think Colorado has always been below league average (overall at least)