MLS Attendance Analysis 2014: Week 6

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by edwardgr, Apr 14, 2014.

  1. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 6, 2006
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As a reminder I am away from my stats this week, until Friday perhaps late. I will attempt to get the actual stats posted before matches start on Saturday. All other normal activities can proceed herein, and the same rules as always should apply.

    Thanks!

    Remember in this thread we discuss the:
    (AAQ = Attendance Analysis Quotient. This figure is an overall attendance assessment, calculated from the weighted values of average attendance, median attendance, <10K percentage and >20K percentage. A lower figure represents a better attendance performance.)
    This is a slight change from Andy's old formula which used simple ordinal values and provided a full ranking point separation for two numbers that may have been within a percentage. This ordinal system did not allow for fine differences to be seen, and may have painted a somewhat skewed view of the numbers (though to be honest there is not much difference in the two end of season sets).

    The formula to find the weighted value for each column is:
    Take the annual value and subtract it from the Max value for it's column. Then take that result and divide it by the (Max-Min) for its column. For example, for the average column
    18801 is the max
    13756 is the min
    5045 is the difference
    To calculate the derived value for 2011
    Subtract 17869 from 18801 to get 932.
    Divide 932 by 5045 then multiply by 100 to get 18

    MLS Attendance is based on tickets distributed not tickets scanned. Therefore if a team sells or distributes X number of tickets, then X is the attendance for that match. Even if 0 people showed up for whatever reason, X would still be the official attendance. There are a number of reasons actual attendance may be lower or higher than the announced.
     
  2. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

    Jul 13, 2011
    Hillsboro, OR
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Game Ratings

    These numbers are an attempt to assign a rating of how well an individual game's attendance matches up with performance of the league as a whole, and the individual team. The reference data is the previous year's average and standard deviation, for both the league, and the individual team. The numbers are the normal distribution's CDF multiplied by 100, and rounded to the nearest whole number. This means the valid range is from 0 to 100.


    DateTeamAttendanceLeague ScoreTeam Score
    2014-04-12 Montreal Impact 19313 54 40
    2014-04-12 Philadelphia Union 18015 47 55
    2014-04-12 D.C. United 12364 22 26
    2014-04-12 New England Revolution 14259 29 45
    2014-04-12 Toronto FC 22591 69 92
    2014-04-12 FC Dallas 17070 42 71
    2014-04-12 Portland Timbers 20814 61 50
    2014-04-12 Los Angeles Galaxy 20847 61 35
    2014-04-13 San Jose Earthquakes 10525 16 40
     
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  3. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

    Jul 13, 2011
    Hillsboro, OR
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Floating Window

    A floating window number is the average attendance for that team over the last X number of games, or X calendar years. So, for 17 games, it is the average of the last 17-n games from the previous season and the n games from the current season. For 1 year, it is the average from one year prior to the noted date through the noted date, inclusive. e.g. for 2014-03-10 it would be from 2013-03-10 through 2014-03-10 inclusive. For each floating window size, a prior and a current value are provided, as well as the difference between them. The dates for prior and current are specified below, and the values there are inclusive of games played on that date.


    Floating window for X number of games

    Prior date: 2014-04-07
    Current date: 2014-04-14

    TeamPrior 1Current 1Diff 1Prior 5Current 5Diff 5Prior 17Current 17Diff 17
    Chicago Fire 12699 12699 0 16819 16819 0 15579 15579 0
    Chivas USA 15008 15008 0 9757 9757 0 8821 8821 0
    Colorado Rapids 12203 12203 0 15332 15332 0 15466 15466 0
    Columbus Crew 12045 12045 0 17037 17037 0 16241 16241 0
    D.C. United 10526 12364 1838 11751 11981 230 12921 12922 1
    FC Dallas 16045 17070 1025 15745 16341 596 15652 15452 -200
    Houston Dynamo 22202 22202 0 20309 20309 0 20447 20447 0
    Los Angeles Galaxy 25634 20847 -4787 22506 21276 -1230 22476 22578 102
    Montreal Impact 24071 19313 -4758 21839 21700 -139 19846 20007 161
    New England Revolution 13103 14259 1156 17860 18879 1019 14896 15130 234
    New York Red Bulls 15225 15225 0 21036 21036 0 19338 19338 0
    Philadelphia Union 15691 18015 2324 18114 17963 -151 17896 17945 49
    Portland Timbers 20814 20814 0 20758 20786 28 20699 20707 8
    Real Salt Lake 18881 18881 0 20157 20157 0 19136 19136 0
    San Jose Earthquakes 10525 10525 0 10525 10525 0 12765 12765 0
    Seattle Sounders 38469 38469 0 44240 44240 0 43961 43961 0
    Sporting Kansas City 19838 19838 0 19362 19362 0 19778 19778 0
    Toronto FC 22591 22591 0 15905 17380 1475 17931 18181 250
    Vancouver Whitecaps 21000 21000 0 20861 20861 0 20351 20351 0



    Floating window for X number of years

    Prior date: 2014-04-07
    Current date: 2014-04-14

    TeamPrior 1Current 1Diff 1Prior 5Current 5Diff 5
    Chicago Fire 15579 15768 189 15309 15309 0
    Chivas USA 8821 8859 38 12951 12951 0
    Colorado Rapids 15481 15481 0 14305 14305 0
    Columbus Crew 16241 16241 0 14347 14432 85
    D.C. United 13205 12891 -314 14516 14490 -26
    FC Dallas 15652 15452 -200 13383 13427 44
    Houston Dynamo 20447 20447 0 18773 18765 -8
    Los Angeles Galaxy 22869 22743 -126 22316 22285 -31
    Montreal Impact 19846 19816 -30 21907 21837 -70
    New England Revolution 15184 15130 -54 13799 13804 5
    New York Red Bulls 19338 19338 0 17851 17851 0
    Philadelphia Union 17896 17945 49 18297 18293 -4
    Portland Timbers 20699 20705 6 20026 20040 14
    Real Salt Lake 19136 19136 0 18047 18124 77
    San Jose Earthquakes 13064 12905 -159 12379 12389 10
    Seattle Sounders 43647 43961 314 38987 39114 127
    Sporting Kansas City 19778 19778 0 16026 16026 0
    Toronto FC 18024 18310 286 19448 19477 29
    Vancouver Whitecaps 20254 20351 97 20032 20032 0
     
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  4. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

    Jul 13, 2011
    Hillsboro, OR
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Floating window for X number of games

    Prior date: 2014-02-01
    Current date: 2014-04-14

    TeamPrior 1Current 1Diff 1Prior 5Current 5Diff 5Prior 17Current 17Diff 17
    Chicago Fire 19889 12699 -7190 18012 16819 -1193 15228 15579 351
    Chivas USA 11024 15008 3984 7956 9757 1801 8366 8821 455
    Colorado Rapids 18103 12203 -5900 16434 15332 -1102 15440 15466 26
    Columbus Crew 17505 12045 -5460 18075 17037 -1038 16080 16241 161
    D.C. United 13731 12364 -1367 13811 11981 -1830 13646 12922 -724
    FC Dallas 15017 17070 2053 13810 16341 2531 15373 15452 79
    Houston Dynamo 22345 22202 -143 19466 20309 843 19923 20447 524
    Los Angeles Galaxy 25418 20847 -4571 21540 21276 -264 22152 22578 426
    Montreal Impact 18993 19313 320 19785 21700 1915 20603 20007 -596
    New England Revolution 26548 14259 -12289 17746 18879 1133 14844 15130 286
    New York Red Bulls 25219 15225 -9994 20804 21036 232 19461 19338 -123
    Philadelphia Union 18462 18015 -447 18644 17963 -681 17867 17945 78
    Portland Timbers 20674 20814 140 20674 20786 112 20674 20707 33
    Real Salt Lake 20447 18881 -1566 20018 20157 139 19218 19136 -82
    San Jose Earthquakes 10525 10525 0 10427 10525 98 12765 12765 0
    Seattle Sounders 66216 38469 -27747 47548 44240 -3308 44038 43961 -77
    Sporting Kansas City 18932 19838 906 19391 19362 -29 19709 19778 69
    Toronto FC 13211 22591 9380 15111 17380 2269 18131 18181 50
    Vancouver Whitecaps 21000 21000 0 20414 20861 447 20038 20351 313



    Floating window for X number of years

    Prior date: 2014-02-01
    Current date: 2014-04-14

    TeamPrior 1Current 1Diff 1Prior 5Current 5Diff 5
    Chicago Fire 15228 15768 540 15284 15309 25
    Chivas USA 8366 8859 493 13102 12951 -151
    Colorado Rapids 15440 15481 41 14291 14305 14
    Columbus Crew 16080 16241 161 14341 14432 91
    D.C. United 13646 12891 -755 14630 14490 -140
    FC Dallas 15373 15452 79 13213 13427 214
    Houston Dynamo 19923 20447 524 18660 18765 105
    Los Angeles Galaxy 22152 22743 591 22153 22285 132
    Montreal Impact 20603 19816 -787 21688 21837 149
    New England Revolution 14844 15130 286 13777 13804 27
    New York Red Bulls 19461 19338 -123 17783 17851 68
    Philadelphia Union 17867 17945 78 18331 18293 -38
    Portland Timbers 20674 20705 31 19980 20040 60
    Real Salt Lake 19218 19136 -82 17930 18124 194
    San Jose Earthquakes 12765 12905 140 12360 12389 29
    Seattle Sounders 44038 43961 -77 38789 39114 325
    Sporting Kansas City 19709 19778 69 15714 16026 312
    Toronto FC 18131 18310 179 19424 19477 53
    Vancouver Whitecaps 20038 20351 313 19975 20032 57
     
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  5. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Interesting aside, NHL just released their end of season attendance report:

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=714836
     
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  6. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 6, 2006
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Good stuff as always. Fuzzx that article really does illustrate how popular hockey is at the gate. I really don't follow the NHL but I love watching Olympic hockey. I have a feeling that if/when the NHL comes to Seattle I would be hooked pretty easily. I have been to a few T-Birds games but not for a long time, back when we had Pter Nedved, and later Patrick Marleau. I don't think I have been to more than 3 games since the mid 90s.
     
  7. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    Somewhere there is a Bighockey attendance thread where people are complaining how these special event matches skew the season averages. "Sure Detroit looked good, but take away their outdoor game and things aren't so rosy."

    And some other posters are fighting about how to calculate percentage capacity.
     
  8. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada

    It's HFboards actually.

    Attendance is not a weekly thing. The league and most teams are old and stable enough that it's not a constant topic of discussion.

    Plus with 41 home games focusing on any one game is not as useful.

    This is the kind of discussions they have:

    NHL beating the NBA in attendance?
    http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?p=77518845

    NHL Attendance over time (or, "why your team should be moved")
    http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1093737

    and

    NHL Attendance Report - 2013-14
    http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1533079


    Most Attendance conversation happens around particular teams that are in trouble, such as Nashville, Phoenix, NY Islanders and Miami.

    Incidentally a thread in the Montreal Canadiens sub-forum is where the majority of English posting about the Impact happens, because of course.
     
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  9. Lancaster FC

    Lancaster FC Member+

    Oct 2, 2007
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  10. T.M. Anthony

    T.M. Anthony Member+

    Jun 13, 2010
    Hudson Valley
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  11. jaykoz3

    jaykoz3 Member+

    Dec 25, 2010
    Conshohocken, PA
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    That's a shame. This match should have been played on a weekend, period. MLS moved to the unbalanced schedule to build regional rivalries and foster more away support. Despite how either fan base feels about this matchup (some see it as a rivalry, others do not) both teams fans do travel, and in numbers. Epic fail by MLS :thumbsdown:
     
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  12. ukraine76

    ukraine76 Member

    Feb 8, 2001
    New York
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yea, I was hoping to see more Union fans as this is the only game in NY between these 2 teams this year.
     
  13. Lancaster FC

    Lancaster FC Member+

    Oct 2, 2007
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    two points:
    1. agree that key rivalries on weekends are a good thing
    2. I disagree that MLS should shy away from mid-week games. Ultimately MLS needs to find a way to boost Mid-week games, their attendance and ratings. Simply pushing games to the weekend to boost attendance and ratings is short sited.
    disclaimer: I also disagree that MLS teams are playing too many games. I think the future of MLS is in playing more games in a season. not less. I don't think now is the time for this (maybe in 10+ years). First we need stronger rating, attendance and most importantly roster strength (quality). But I do think this is a goal for MLS down the road.
     
  14. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    I think it is a shame, since almost all stadiums have exclusive scheduling control over their stadiums. NY playing literally any team but Philly on a wednesday would have been preferable.

    It's not a question of playing mid week, it's ignoring the potential of a good rivalry.

    There must be factors behind the scenes. The league knows full well that 2 of its biggest media markets are NY and Philly.

    In this sense I'm very curious to see what 21 teams next year will mean.

    related news, which i'll probably post elsewhere, The impact report that they will try to only play one game at Olympic stadium next season, and try to coordinate with the league to perhaps not start their season till a week or 2 in.

    Also, the league is contemplating starting a week later overall:

    http://tvasports.ca/soccer/impact/un-seul-match-au-stade-olympique-16042014

     
  15. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's to be expected, since there's no World Cup next year. How long of a break is MLS taking this year? 2 weeks I think?
     
  16. terrier

    terrier Member

    May 31, 2011
    Netherlands
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    June 11 - June 27 for US teams (Montreal plays at Vancouver on June 25.)

    (And let's face it, if Dempsey is not playing at RFK on June 28th, it's probably not going to be because he's still in Brazil.)
     
  17. okcomputer

    okcomputer Member

    Jun 25, 2003
    dc
    Mid-week games have worse attendance in every sport. Playing games then will always draw worse then weekends. No way around it.
     
  18. Lancaster FC

    Lancaster FC Member+

    Oct 2, 2007
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    agreed, but just because it is true, doesn't mean you shouldn't do it.
     
  19. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 6, 2006
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I am back and will try and post my stats tomorrow morning.
     
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  20. bbsbt

    bbsbt Member+

    Feb 26, 2003
    Looks pathetic at Colorado. The new New England.
     
  21. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Paging @JasonMa
     
  22. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

    Apr 20, 2009
    Olympia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    Well, since no one else has posted these yet:

    Philly - Houston = 17,301
    Chicago - NE = 15,743
    Colorado - SJ = 12,306
     
  23. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

    Apr 20, 2009
    Olympia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    Vancouver - LA = 21,000
     
  24. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Looks pathetic in the attendance thread. The new OlePopgun00

    Sorry, I was at the game getting soaked by the first half downpour. ;)
     
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  25. fuzzx

    fuzzx Member+

    Feb 4, 2012
    Brossard
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Caps FO choice to limit capacity looks more shortsighted by the week.
     

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