Looking ahead... Brazil 2014

Discussion in 'World Cup 2010: Refereeing' started by MassachusettsRef, Jul 3, 2010.

  1. MassachusettsRef Moderator

    Member Since:
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    The World Cup boards close a few days after the tournament, so I thought this thread would be of interest now, as we are down to our final four games and won't have too much time to discuss it after the tournament ends.

    Who will be around for WC 2014? Who might the new candidates be?

    First, the background. Only 8 referees from 2006 returned in 2010 (though one, Batres, returned from 2002). That being said, a couple major surprises caused a few referees to not be at 2010 (Shield's retirement, Michel's retirement, and Codjia's last-minute blunder). So you could expect a little fewer than half of the officials to return.

    Second, presuming the retirement age of 45 does not change, the following officials are eligible to return again:

    Coulibaly (MLI)
    Damon (RSA)
    Al Ghamdi (KSA)
    Irmatov (UZB)
    Nishimura (JPN)
    Benquerenca (POR)
    Busacca (SUI)
    Hansson (SWE)
    Kassai (HUN)
    Lannoy (FRA)
    Stark (GER)
    Undiano Mallenco (ESP)
    Webb (ENG)
    Aguilar (SLV)
    Rodriguez (MEX)
    Hester (NZL)
    O'Leary (NZL)
    Pozo (CHI)
    Ruiz (COL)
    Vazquez (URU)

    So of the 29 officials present, 20 are age-eligible for 2014. A lot can happen between now and then (including, potentially, the need for 5-person teams?) but what's the harm in idle speculation...

    CAF
    I think it's same to assume we've seen the last of Coulibaly. And it's also fair to assume Damon will be around again. That means Africa needs to find 2-3 new referees to put up. I imagine the candidates are people who are already attending top African competitions, like the 2010 ACN. Benouza of Algeria seems an obvious choice. He's age-eligible and was supposed to go to this tournament before a late injury. Daniel Bennett of South Africa is another potential pick. He's only 34 and is South Africa's #2 after Damon. The only other name I really know is Diatta of Senegal. He's been to multiple African tournaments and is still age-eligible for 2014. But if he hasn't been selected yet, perhaps FIFA just doesn't favor him? He was on the initial candidacy list for 2010 but was dropped before the Fall of 2008, if that says anything.

    Predictions (3): Damon, Benouza, Diatta

    AFC
    Irmatov, Nishimura and Al-Ghamdi can all return. And FIFA seems to like all three. Barring a retirement from Al-Ghamdi, I think all three will be back. So it's about finding the fourth referee. Matthew Breeze is still age-eligible, so hopefully that makes the decision easy. But he could stand-down if he felt he was screwed and doesn't have a shot. Ben Williams is next on Australia's depth chart, I think, and he's got a lot of big matches in AFC. He could be the logical choice. Abduallah Al-Hilali of Oman is the only other age-eligible referee from Asia who has been a World Cup candidate, but he was dropped back in late 2008.

    Predictions (4): Irmatov, Nishimura, Al-Ghamdi, Williams

    UEFA
    So much could happen in UEFA. The only obvious things in my eyes are that Kassai, Benquerenca and Undiano Mallenco all return. They still have a lot to prove and plenty of time to do it, so they'll be around. Then the question marks start. Does Busacca carry-on? The only thing he has left to go for are the EURO12 and WC14 finals. Does he do it? My gut says 'yes' and that he wants a big international final to crown his career. Hansson? I don't think we'll see him again. FIFA likes him, but he seems out of favor with UEFA. It would be a long road back for him. Lannoy is done in my opinion. There are other French referees in the pipeline behind him. Stark? Well, he wants a UCL final and will likely get one. But is he what UEFA and FIFA want going forward? I think Brych will displace him. And then there's Webb. He could easily return, if he wants to go to EURO12 and then try his luck again at a WC (if he gets the Final here, I imagine he'll retire). But I've heard stuff before about how he wanted to return full-time to police work, so perhaps he'll give up tournaments after this.

    Who is waiting in the wings? Skomina (SVN), Thomson (SCO), Bebek (CRO), and Einwaller (AUT) are the young referees that were on the candidates list and cut. I think some will all be at EURO12 and the ones that shine will be in Brazil. Rizzoli from Italy is a no-brainer, as is Felix Brych from Germany if Stark stands down. Who else? Martin Atkinson if Webb stands down. Bjorn Kuipers from Netherlands will certainly be in the running. And I think Jonas Eriksson replaces Hansson in Sweden. The referees that have outside shots based on where they are right now, where they are from, and the opportunities they will have... Chapron (FRA), Kelly, (IRL), Yefet (ISR), Tudor (ROU), and Cakir (TUR).

    Predictions (12): Kassai, Benquerenca, Undiano Mallenco, Busacca, Webb, Skomina, Rizzoli, Brych, Kuipers, Eriksson, Kelly, Cakir.

    CONCACAF
    Rodriguez returns. Aguilar has an inside-track if he has no high-profile blunders. Then what? A lot depends on what the United States decides to do. If we have only one candidate, which seems likely, do we go back to Marrufo? Or do Salazar or Vaughn get the nod? An American has a shot--but at the moment, not a good one. Paul Ward hopefully is a candidate from Canada. I'd like to see him get a real chance. Roberto Moreno of Panama and Enrico Winjgaarde of Suriname will possibly be candidates again. Doubt Winjgaarde has a chance but Moreno might. And Mexico could have a second candidate, but I don't know who it would be.

    Predictions (4): Rodriguez, Aguilar, Marrufo, Moreno

    CONMEBOL
    I can't believe Ruiz is eligible for 2014. Should we pencil him in as a favorite for the Final, now? Pozo will return and Vazquez will be promoted, I'd wager. It's a mess after that. Argentina and Brazil will have referees there, but who? Argentina's #2 is Pezzota, who is to retire before 2014. Fagundes is Brazil's #2, but he also has to retire. There is a vacuum at the top for both countries. Amarilla from Paraguay is age-eligible and would have gone to this tournament if not for injury. Got to think he'll be there. There's no one else from South America who has even done a Copa America match and is age-eligible. EDIT: predicted Brazilian and Argentinian based on info below

    Predictions (6): Ruiz, Pozo, Vazquez, Torres, De Oliviera, Laverni

    OFC
    Sorry, but I just don't believe OFC will send two referees again. And Hester not getting a second match has got to be some sort of signal. I'll say they get one referee, and pick O'Leary.

    Predictions (1): O'Leary

    So my preliminary list of 30 referees for 2014 is...
    Damon (RSA)
    Benouza (ALG)
    Diatta (SEN)
    Al-Ghamdi (KSA)
    Irmatov (UZB)
    Nishimura (JPN)
    Williams (AUS)
    Kassai (HUN)
    Benquerenca (POR)
    Undiano Mallenco (ESP)
    Busacca (SUI)
    Webb (ENG)
    Skomina (SVN)
    Rizzoli (ITA)
    Brych (GER)
    Kuipers (NED)
    Eriksson (SWE)
    Kelly (IRL)
    Cakir (TUR)
    Rodriguez (MEX)
    Marrufo (USA)
    Aguilar (SLV)
    Moreno (PAN)
    Ruiz (COL)
    Pozo (CHI)
    Vazquez (URU)
    Amarilla (PAR)
    De Oliviera (BRA)
    Laverni (ARG)
    O'Leary (NZL)

    If I have 60% of that right in 3.5 years, I'll be happy!
          
  2. FIFAFAIRPLAY New Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 24, 2009
    Stebe Delovski could be better bet as Australia's candidate. Has had a fast rise and is a terrific referee. He was recently promoted to AFC elite panel and was A-League referee of the season 2009/2010 - officiating the Grand Final (Breeze was 4th). All depends how he goes with the AFC now that his foot is in the door.
  3. shawn12011 Member

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    As for the USA..............Vaughn would be in over his head at a WC match IMHO. To be honest Salazar and Marrufo are too inconsistent for my tastes. Marrufo less so than Salazar. How old is Prus? Personally I feel he is the best match official here in the US.
  4. UK93JJG New Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 5, 2010
    Club:
    Glasgow Rangers FC
    I follow South American a wee bit, and if I was to be looking for a referee each from Brazil and Argentina, I would put my house on the Argentine referee being Saul Laverni. He'll be age eligible in 2014 and has taken charge of many qualifiers and at Libertadores tournaments etc. The Brazilian referee isn't so clear cut, but if I was to have a stab in the dark, I'd probably say Heber Lopes.

    I think a lot of the above list will prove correct, although I do think Craig Thomson of Scotland will make the cut, and I could see Paraguay's Carlos Amarilla returning again, as he will still be age eligible.
  5. code1390 Member

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    46. He had to step down from the FIFA panel after 2009.

    Biggest problem with the US is they spread the appointments around too much. Instead of having two refs getting 6 or 7 WC qualifiers, the US has 5 or 6 referees getting 2 or 3 games.

    Thats insane. No other country in the world has its 4th best referee do World Cup qualifiers much less its 6th best. Thats like Stuart Atwell doing World Cup qualifiers.
  6. shawn12011 Member

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    46, dang. Why does it seem to take so long for US refs to "get it"? :rolleyes:
  7. MassachusettsRef Moderator

    Member Since:
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    Has anything been said about whether or not Breeze will retire?

    It appears you will be right. Looking at the Argentine list more closely, 6 out of 10 FIFA referees will have to retire before 2014. Laverni will be the longest-tenured referee by that time. I know nothing about him, but he seems to be the right bet. Big shoes to follow in from the last 4 tournaments, in my opinion (Angel Sanchez got a really bad rap in 2002).

    I examined this list a little closer, too. It seems it will either be Lopes (born 1972, panel-listed 2002) or Paulo De Oliviera (born 1973, panel-listed 1999). De Oliviera has been a FIFA referee since age 26... know anything about him?

    I think you could be right about this. He's done very well. I've just heard a lot of good things about Kelly recently, so I took a wild guess.

    I also have a feeling that FIFA loves Einwaller and that Platini's pull will put Chapron in play (or bring Lannoy back--I think one reason Lannoy was promoted over Duhamel in the first place was that Lannoy is eligible for '14 and Duhamel is not).

    Ooh, very valid point. I had assumed he wasn't age-eligible and didn't bother looking. I'm going to have to say he gets their ahead of Torres, since he's already beaten him out once.
  8. MrRC BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Member Since:
    Jun 17, 2009
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    One can only hope that enough changes will have occurred in the USSF administration by 2014 such that the mistakes which led to nominating Marrufo won't be repeated.
  9. MassachusettsRef Moderator

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    To be fair, several countries do have their "fourth" referee doing WC qualifiers. Germany and Italy, for sure. And I think Clattenburg would have got whistles if he hadn't been suspended, so England, too (Webb/Atkinson/Dean/Clattenburg). I'm not sure whether Spain's #4 got matches or not. It's also possible it happened in South America, as well. It's rare, but it happens.

    Your point about it being insane for US officiating is dead-on, though. It's complicated because Marrufo can't work Mexican matches. Nonetheless, I think USSF needs to decide our top 3 referees and submit only them into rotation for WCQs. All seven officials are age-eligible for 2014 and Vaughn, Marrufo, Jurivesic and Geiger are eligible for 2018. I don't pretend to know or understand the internal politics about how officials become WC candidates. But if USSF has a say in it, it would seem putting Vaughn, Marrufo and Geiger forward as our top three officials is the way to go. That is, unless, Salazar has a shot at 2014--if he does, then let's make him our #1 and go with it. All of this sucks for Toledo, who probably could perform as our #1 at an international level right now.
  10. UK93JJG New Member

    Member Since:
    Jun 5, 2010
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    Glasgow Rangers FC
    The "fourth" referee doing qualifiers is common all around Europe, even our refs in Scotland have a "top 4" that do qualifiers. Our top guy in Thomson, then Collum, McDonald and Murray, although McDonald and Murray have left FIFA now after reaching 45. I'd say most countries in the continenent, barring the likes of Andorra, San Marino, Azerbaijan etc., have at least two or three referees out there, and that can only be good for their development.
  11. jayhonk Member

    Member Since:
    Oct 9, 2007
    I don't know if it is 'insane'.
    I guess it is a matter of system-wide priorities. If your first priority is to get a US ref into the World Cup, that is a bad way to do it. On the other hand, if you desire to build a strong upper level referee base for your domestic league, and for domestic refereeing in general, then giving 5 or 6 guys WC seasoning is a good way to accomplish that.
  12. refmedic Member

    Member Since:
    Sep 22, 2008
    I'm pretty sure that Maruffo's days as our #1 are over. I have heard from a number of people that he is going to stick around MLS as long as he is useful, but his days as our number 1 FIFA are long gone, and it's his own fault. He was also fired as a USSF full-time referee after the Blanco debacle last season (which I still think is a massive overreaction to nothing) and his water break. I would doubt that USSF would hire 4 full time referees, and then continue to push the only one that they fired as our top International referee. The general consensus form the people that I have spoken to is that Salazar will be our guy for the 2014 cycle. IMO, he is the top US referee right now. I agree with the person that said Vaughn can't hack it at the WC level. He seems like too much of a "follow the standard" referee who is almost robotic. IMO, he does not have the ability to adjust to the level or style of play in order to manage the game, which we have seen at this WC, is very important. He is a very reactionary referee. There are some other things to consider as well. We have a new panel member in Jurisevic, but I forsee at least 1 addition in the next year or 2. I think Landis Wiley will be promoted for 2011. He is young, and REALLY good. FIFA also likes referees with physical presence. He is very tall, and although he really needs to eat a sandwich or 2, his body language commands respect, and he is a real presence on the field. I wil be completely shocked if he isn't on the panel for 2012. If USSF wanted to push someone who will be age-eligible for 2 or 3 cycles, he would be my pick. I worked with Geiger back when he was a State Referee, and even then, he was the best referee I had ever worked with. I would put him ahead of guys like Vaughn in ability, and guys like Jurisevic in experience.
  13. LiquidYogi Member

    Member Since:
    Sep 3, 2009
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    Seattle Sounders
    Vaughn really screwed up the Columbus game by not seeing an obvious handling foul that led to a goal. Landis looks like he's going to be promoted someday I haven't watched too many of his games, he just seems a bit green to me. That'll be fixed with time...and a few more sandwiches.

    Salazar is probably going to be the #1, again I haven't seen too many international matches of his, the Australia one wasn't heartening but he'll improve if he's the #1 and thrown into more of those matches.
  14. MrRC BigSoccer Yellow Card

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    He made several excuses about being tired from the plane trip and off his game for that one. I lost a great deal of respect for him when he did that instead of just owning up to his failures.
  15. LiquidYogi Member

    Member Since:
    Sep 3, 2009
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    Seattle Sounders
    I sympathize with him and it is only one game, I can't judge accurately because I haven't seen him do enough games outside of the MLS. In the MLS he's easily 2nd best referee (Behind Stott). Like Webb in CL games vs EPL games he could be much better outside the US. Greater men than me will judge whether he's the best in the US for next WC.

    The only thing that bothers me is we didn't have a referee in the WC this year, if we don't have one next WC I'll be very upset...I might cry into my cards.
  16. Pierre Head Member

    Member Since:
    Dec 24, 2005
    Unless things change drastically soon in USSF and MLS, you might as well get out your towel now!

    Remember CONCACAF will get 3 or 4 referees and our guy would have to be
    rated higher than 4 others in CONCACAF. Right now, it looks doubtful. Mexico always gets at least one, so that's only three more spots possibly available.
  17. MassachusettsRef Moderator

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    Right. Rodriguez is a lock. And Aguilar has a step up on whomever we put forward. And if we rotate Marrufo out, you could argue Moreno is in front, too.

    It might be a race between our nominee and Paul Ward for a spot in the World Cup. I hate to say it (and I don't know who would make the decision) but what about a Paul Ward-led crew with two American ARs? Would joining forces help politically?
  18. LiquidYogi Member

    Member Since:
    Sep 3, 2009
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    Seattle Sounders
    Who do we have in the world class AR department? I know Fabio because he's from SoCal and I like him, but that's all I know about.
  19. MassachusettsRef Moderator

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    Gansner, Hurd, Morgante, Rockwell, Vasoli and Wienckowski are all age-eligible for 2014.

    Morgante has the inside track as he's already been a candidate. I would imagine the race for the other spot is between Gansner and Wienckowski.
  20. LiquidYogi Member

    Member Since:
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    Seattle Sounders
    Eligible doesn't make them amazing at their job. Which two Assistants do you think are "World Class" as it were.
  21. MassachusettsRef Moderator

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    I think Gansner has a pretty damn good history in MLS. He's been involved in some controversial incidents and has always seemed to be right.

    I've worked with Adam and having lived in DC, know him some. He's worked his tail off and deserves his spot. I think he's probably #2 of what I've seen.

    I've also been impressed with Rockwell when I've seen him.

    I've seen Vasoli, Hurd and Morgante the least, so can't really comment on them other than making stuff up.

    Frankly, I think all of our ARs are word-class or nearly world-class (some are very good but haven't had many international matches to prove it).
  22. LiquidYogi Member

    Member Since:
    Sep 3, 2009
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    Seattle Sounders
    It's true that US ARs happen to be some of the best...I would like to put forward the best of the best but of course I have no say in that. Is it sad to anyone else that we're hoping to put our ARs with a Canadian Referee. Why is USSF so screwed up it can't breed good referees?
  23. MassachusettsRef Moderator

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    I don't think anyone's "hoping" for it. I just suggested it as being an option.

    As has been argued above, part of our failure to get a referee there has been the system, but a good part of it has been politics as well (everything I've ever heard about 2006 is that Stott got screwed by CONCACAF at the very last second). Lumping two US ARs with a Canadian CR would put the weight of both federations behind the team and it would avoid competition between our two federations, as it seems the "last" spot in CONCACAF might be a fight between us as things stand now.
  24. Pierre Head Member

    Member Since:
    Dec 24, 2005
    I would imagine that the Canadians would want their own ARs to go with their CR. After all, they do have a Canadian AR at this year's WC, but USSF does not.

    Also remember that there were no Caribbean guys at the WC this year either, so they will want someone next time. And a lot of CONCACAF political power is from there which will help them. After the Marrufo mess, the USSF's credibility will not be high, so all things considered I think it will be a long shot to get any US referee either AR or CR at the 2014 WC. I know this is pessimistic, but it is also realistic. It is the end result of the past few years of mismanagement of the program.
  25. Alberto Moderator

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    What do you think of Ward? I'm not enamored of him. He looks like a cut above Mauricio Navarro, but that does not really say much. He really lacks presence on the field. Personally, it's a Canadian issue. We have much more to offer FIFA with our showing this year in the Cup and in the Confederations than does Canada that has qualified for only one World Cup (1986). Why would we want to tie up our AR's with Ward? Their national team is in shambles and their referees aren't much better. Do they even have a voice in FIFA or CONCACAF? Our competition to get referees placed on the short list is with Mexico and sadly whomever backs Aguillar.

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