Landon Donovan: U.S. Expects to Advance Out Of World Cup ‘Group of Death’

Lol. Considering that Israel tied Portugal twice (once in a 3-3 shootout that Portugal needed a 93rd-minute goal to rescue a point) in WCQ, I'm sure that there are ways to get points off of this Portugal team.

With that business out of the way, do you know who you sound like? English fans consistently trumpet their individual players as being of the highest quality, and they're correct more often than not (I think that their MF is sometimes overrated). However, when it comes down to game-time, people seem to forget that once you get to the World Cup, the margins between the top players and the rest of the field are very small. Portugal flat out is not "clearly" better than the US without Ronaldo, and even with him in the squad, the margins between the US and Portuguese players are small enough that it's going to come down to a couple of pivotal plays on one side or the other, and the team that plays better together is likely going to win.

 

Portugal's only defeats in major tournaments since 2006 have been to a Zidane led France, Germany, and Spain. I'd like to see your explanation as to how exactly that is "underachieving and choking".

 

What has Portugal achieved in that time frame? Did they win their group in World Cup qualification? What did the golden generation win? Anyway, Portugal is one of the five or six most talented teams but I don't think their results reflect that. I don't follow Portugal full time, so if I am missing some result that is comensurate with Portugal's talent level please enlighten me.

My opinion is that Portugal is less than the sum of its parts and the USMNT is more. Of course, it's just an amateur opinion and Portugal has the opportunity to show me the errors of my analysis this summer.

 

I already did. You and others keep bringing up qualification and I'm not sure why as it is completely different from major tournaments, which is what we should be discussing. Portugal's qualifying results rarely reflect how they do in tournaments. In fact, they won their qualifying group back in 2002 ahead of both Ireland and the Netherlands and we saw how they did come the actual World Cup. Portugal also needed play-offs for 2012 yet had no problem pushing the World and European champions to penalties in the Euro semis. Since 2006 they have been to the World Cup semi-finals and the Euro semi-finals. The other two tournaments they lost out earlier in the knockout rounds to the two strongest teams in the world and never by more than a goal. I'd say those are achievements to be proud of and certainly reflect their talent level.

You admitted you don't follow Portugal full time and it's clear that others here don't either. This isn't 2002. In recent major tournaments Portugal has been doing what they have to do.

 

You didn't enlighten me, you talked about games that Portugal lost. You told me who Portugal lost to. Your most recent post reminded me about Portugal's run to the Euro semifinals in 2012. We just differ in that I think Portugal's qualification record is relevant and not very impressive. Anyone can get hot in a big tournament (color me unimpressed by a loss to Spain when we actually beat Spain in an official tournament), so the performance in qualifying strikes me as relevant to assessing a team.

Nevertheless, I may have been trying to repress Portugal's performances as this alleged lack of cohesion as a team is all I have to go on, as certainly a comparison based on talent will be no comfort (Ronaldo versus a guy who can't score for the Seattle Sounders). I am going to promptly forget this conversation and keep repeating that Portugal is a bunch of underachievers and chokers.

 

I think your analysis of this team is a little outdated. What you say was clearly true in 2002. Now, it's different. The team has less talent, aside from Ronaldo, but plays better as a team. It is defensively more cohesive. The fact that you say that seems to imply that you have not watched recent matches. However, I agree that in the qualifiers the team was less than the sum of the parts. Many mistakes were made and there was always a little bit of a lack of motivation. What benficafan is trying to say is that the team has been avoiding these mistakes in the main competitions, where the motivation is high. Since we are analysing an hypothetical performance in a major competition, you should not ignore this fact. It's not true that any team plays better in the main competitions. Portugal finished second to Denmark in 2010 and 2012, but went farther in the tournament in both instances. In 2012, it even beat Denmark when it had lost to them not many months before the Euro. This contradicts the inevitability of bad results to have any bearing in the competition you are implying.

 

We will just have to disagree. I think anyone can do well in a single tournament (US in Confed Cup and Greece in the Euros in Portugal whenever that was), so performance in qualification is relevant in my view. I certainly could be wrong and I am sure there is an element of wishful thinking in my opinion, but I am sticking to it so I can have a little hope.

 

Notice that I am not arguing that USA does not have hope of qualifying. On the contrary, both Ghana and USA are the type of teams capable of frustrating Portugal. What I am saying is that, as some other user said, Portugal's record from the past 10 years has been bizarre. The 2004/06 team was really good for our standards, but in 2008 everyone, myself included, started believing we initiated an age of decline and never would obtain good results in the near future. But reaching the semi-finals of Euro 2012 when you had a group with Spain, Netherlands, and Denmark was not something any team would do and contradicted every expectations. And the 2010 performance raised some doubts, since aside from North Korea all the matches were pretty difficult: Spain, Brasil, and Ivory Coast. And the fact that Portugal survived every group since 2000 except 2002 shows that it has been consistent.

In my opinion, the qualifiers should tell you one thing about this team. It has some serious flaws, which can be exploited. You have Ronaldo, Pepe, and Moutinho playing at their best, but Nani and Coentrão, the other two good players, are not in their best shape. The rest of the squad is not better than ordinay USA players. On the other hand, zhe Germans are pretty much unbeatable, unless they choke unlike in any of the past three main competitions. That might happen, but it is unlikely given their mental strength and the current status of the Bundesliga.

 

Fair enough. My hopeful perception that Portugal are underachievers is based on my not-so-sunny analysis of the USMNT's current talent level (our best player has not scored in six months, our all-time best player is fragile and lacks his previous explosiveness, our next two best players are in the Bundesliga and currently struggling repeatedly with form and/or fitness etc,). Thanks for the input.

 

The best path for the US to advance would be a win v Ghana, a tie v Portugal and don't get blown out against Germany. 4 points and we advance on goal difference. I am very bullish on our ability to advance; none of those results are beyond our capability or unlikely.

LOL. Okay. From a purely objective standpoint, "clearly" better how?

 

So if you throw out the results that don't work for your argument, your argument totally works!

You team has no striker, Nani is an inconsistent goof, your keeper is iffy and you have the worst team chemistry I've ever seen in a top 10 side. Your team will go as far as CR7 (and to a lesser extent Moutinho) will take you, which might be far given he's the best player on the planet, but don't act like Portugal is some world beating monster before you factor in Ronaldo.

 

I've been a Germany fan all my life, since before anyone even considered the US in a World Cup. And, I think their record of having advanced past the group stages at every single world cup speaks for itself and I fully expect them to do so again in Brazil as the top team in our group. It would be shocking if they did not. All that said, I honestly think Germany is far more vulnerable than many people seem to think this time around. For one, I think most of the central and northern European teams will struggle in the Brazilian environment. I expect lots of upsets. And secondly, for all the good vibes around this new, modern Germany, this new Germany doesn't seem to win things like the old, stodgy Germany did. If we have to face Germany, I think the current version of the team in an inhospitable environment is about as good a chance as we could ask for to get a result. Obviously, even a point out of that game would be a big upset, but if we gotta play 'em, I think now's the time.

 

Oh, and I think Portugal will wilt less in the heat than most other European teams so they were a bad draw, especially considering they will be reminded often about 2002 and they will be prepared. I think we get a win against Ghana, just because I like to think we can't let the same team take us 3 in a row. I also think if we don't, our tournament is basically over.

 

There is something to what you say. I know it was just a friendly, but to me Germany did not appear to care for the heat and humidity in Washington DC. They seemed to be strolling around until the scoreline became close to embarrassing. Of course,the motivation and climate preparation will be much greater for Germany this summer, but I agree that it probably is b etter for the US to play them in heat and humidity than somewhere more temperate.

 

I had my "Holy crap, we're toast!" moment after the draw like pretty much every other US fan...

(OK, more than a moment...more like a day...)

Now?

9 points, baby! Group G is going to be an American playground!!!!!!

(yes, I know...and just think, you get high quality analysis like this for free!!!)

 

Group thought is an amazing thing....
It has become standard on this board since the draw to claim Portugal is an underachieving team.

They have gotten out of the group stage in the last 5 major tournaments they have played in. What part of there recent tournament record makes them "choke artists"?

Can the US beat Portugal? Of course and we have more than a "puncher's chance". But they will be the favorites in that match and for very good reasons.

 

I buy more into the line of thought not that POR is an underachieving team, but rather that they certainly could be this year (at a WC played outside of UEFA).

There is very likely, imo, to be an "underachieving" team or two in Group G. (And yes, I could be wrong in the projected opinion.)

Good analysis.

And it is also worth noting that the US doesn't need to beat Portugal to advance.

 

Fixed.

Argentina's group is a casual walk in the park on a nice summers day with scantily clad women tanning.

This group, the teams will traverse the fires of hell. The surviving 2 probably coming out stronger and more tempered for it.

 

Where is this alleged group think? My reasoning is flawed, though I still think having to qualify through the playoffs is underachieving, but it is mine.

Stop attacking straw men and address an actual argument, if you have anything to add.

 

We would need to beat Ghana then (or Germany). We definitely have to beat one of the 3 (unless all games in the group end in a draw and we move on for scoring more goals).

Well depending on who is in your group, in UEFA if you are in the same group as a handful of teams then you are basically fighting for second.

But this year Portugal finished second to Russia, not exactly a powerhouse, they dropped points at home vs Israel and Northern Ireland.

Not that impresive for sure.

They do have CR7, arguably the second best player in the world, that could be a big difference maker.

 

Sure, those are the simplest routes, and I am certainly (and perhaps unrealistically) pulling for the US to get 9 or 7 or 6 or 5 or 4 points (and not need a tiebreaker) to advance.

Also, the US could draw all three of their matches, and some team could finish on 7 points while the other two teams finish on 2 points each so the US could advance with those 3 points cleanly in second place.

 

If we miss the cut by a point or two, and go out playing good footie (reading too many English forums), I'll make my peace with JK.

If we go out shamed and spanked, after paying so much money, I'll declare war on him.

 

I'm not really sure that such a declaration would bother him.

He's already got his contract through 2018.

 

I'm still going to rise the Jolly Roger and scream bloody murder, even if no one cares.

 

I expect a group exit with two or three points. But speaking of Donovan, if we have any hope of advancing, I have a gut feeling it might come down to Donovan once again stepping up in a huge way.