Landon Donovan: U.S. Expects to Advance Out Of World Cup ‘Group of Death’

So in short, here is how Donovan sees this group

 

Did you expect him to say anything different?

 

I think we can, I mean we beat the best Portugal team in history back in 2002 and this Portugal's team is nothing as dangerous as their 2000-2006 team. Honestly Ghana scares me more than Portugal, hopefully we do not lose to them at least.

 

Grudge match against Ghana - 3 points.

Germany beats Portugal.

Play our hearts and lungs out against Portugal - 1 point.

Germany beats Ghana.

Lose to Germany.

Ghana ties Portugal.

Germany - 9
USA - 4
Portugal - 2
Ghana - 1

It will be insanely hard, but it can be done.

 

Donovan is right that this is a confident, experienced group. I don't expect them to be overawed by the occasion and they will have the patience and maturity to execute. But the team is badly outmatched man-for-man by Portugal and Germany, while Ghana is still a very strong team. I feel much more pessimistic than Landon as a result.

 

Exactly. The math is in our favor.

We will be fine.

 

Even if Portugal won, it would come down to the coin-flip tiebreakers, and I could see us coming out of those, because I don't see Portugal slaughtering people.

 

We need Germany to hammer Portugal in the opener.

And although Ghana has beaten us twice, we've been right with them both times. The first time, we lost on a bogus PK call (after gifting them the first goal). The second time, the game was a tie over 90 minutes. We can hang with them, I feel.

 

I don't like the part where anyone assumes the US will lose to Germany.

There certainly are scenarios where the US could "back into" the second round with a loss to Germany on June 26. But I suspect the US will go into each game of the group focused on getting a (very) positive result -- and the US will very likely need some good/great result in 2 of their games, although I certainly don't know which 2 of the 3 (or crazily 3 of the 3) will be those group stage matches in which the US does achieve those results that collectively push them through to the knock-out rounds.

 

It's more of those three teams, Germany is the most likely one we would lose to. Granted that's also ignoring context, such as Germany already having won the group by then and maybe not playing as hard as they could (or even resting up key players for the knockout stages).

 

Absolutely.

There are (very likely) going to be some (surprising) "upsets" in a few or many matches at the WC -- and no one knows if any of those "upsets" (or surprising results) will occur in group G.

I tend to see it as a very balanced group G and do not envision the eventual group-winner finishing with a full 9 points. Nor do I think the 4th-place finisher in the group being limited to only 1 or zero points from the group stage.

 

I see group G as one with one of the primary title contenders, followed by 3 strong and fairly evenly-matched teams + Cristiano Ronaldo.

EDIT: I would neither be surprised to see Germany run the table in the group nor even to finish in 2nd place. The only thing that would shock me would be to see Germany fail to advance. FWIW, Nate Silver gave Germany over 90% chance of advancement, and then Portugal and USA in a virtual dead-heat, with Portugal favored by around a percentage point (around 39%-40% IIRC) and then Ghana, who he still gave more than a 25% chance to advance.

There's a clear favorite, but after that, it all gets very murky. It's just that one of those "other" sides just happens to have arguably the greatest player in the game right now, and you have to consider that a factor.

 

Agreed, and primary title contenders have been known to slip up (at times) in the group stage. For some reason I do not expect the Germans will enjoy their time and games in Brazil at the 2014WC.

And yes, two teams will get eliminated from Group G and the US very well could be one of those two teams -- but I see nothing wrong with anyone (Landon Donovan included) expecting the US to play more than three matches at this World Cup.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again: the entire group G schedule will be played out in the tropical north. Our German-Americans are not fond of playing in the heat. UEFA in general has a history of wilting in the heat. (Granted, our schedule is actually the worst, which could be a factor.) I expect the conditions, and the way they wear on the players of all four teams to be an X factor in how this turns out. Despite the fact that Germany has an incredible record of consistency, these factors are not particularly favorable to them.

I think that Landon's correct in that we have just about as good a chance as anyone, and he should feel confident in thinking that if our team performs, then we need not fear the odds, particularly if we can win the first match. That's key, and I think that's rather how we have to prepare. Beat Ghana. Then, grab as many points as you can.

 

The first game is vital. A loss with Ghana and it's over. Let's not deceive ourselves. Only way to have a shot is to get at the very least a tie. And in that first game, Ghana has one clear advantage: their midfield.

When you play a team with high-caliber midfielders, keeping possession may be the wrong recipe. They have Premiership, Ligue 1, Serie A midfielders. They come from clubs like Juve, Milan, Udinese, Schalke, Marseille. Regular starters in strong clubs.

If the midfield become a possession battle, I don't see us winning it. Matter of fact I'd prefer a counterattacking style against them. It almost worked before. Now they also bring a weak spot on the left, where they got that kid Waris in the Egypt games, with Inkoom behind --a guy below his 2010 level.

I'm afraid JK is going to want our MLSers engage in a possession battle in midfield against the likes of Muntari, Asamoah, KP Boateng, Badu, instead of hitting fast on the flanks. That's a battle we're unlikely to win.

 

I expect Ronaldo to be the golden boot winner. He will have 4 goals after his first 2 games. The tourney is set up for him to dominate into the semis

 

Let's not deceive ourselves -- there are 6 points available to each team within any two of their three group stage matches.

There's no denying that the first game is key, and a win there is more-desirable than a tie, and is vastly more-desirable than a loss would be.

But nothing will be decided on the first match day. Even if the US loses to Ghana, this US team is capable of getting the points required to advance from their next two games (even though the US would certainly not be "favored" to win either of those games v POR and GER).

 

Absolutely agree with this. I'm thinking about the great 2006 side who was dominated by a mediocre Czech side, probably due to a poor USMNT analysis of the Czech side.

It's not that the first match doesn't matter, it's just that sometimes the first match is simply bad luck, and the character of the team is not revealed by the match.

 

No offense to the US or Ghana but there's absolutely no good argument in regards to Portugal, USA, Ghana being relatively even. Nate Silver's "predictions" for tournaments have been proven wrong time and time again. Portugal is clearly better than the USA and Ghana without Ronaldo. With Ronaldo it isn't even up for discussion. As this is football, anything can happen as me and you both saw in 2002, but let's not kid ourselves. From a purely objective standpoint, assuming each team plays to their capabilities (which Portugal does in major tournaments) Portugal is cearly the 2nd best team in this group, by a considerable distance.

 

Go ahead and bloviate on that purely objective standpoint, by all means.

 

Around here, everything is up for discussion.

The beauty of the WC competition is that "clearly better" teams might not achieve expected results and might fail to advance from group play.

 

3-1 USA over Ghana after a slow start that saw Ghana go up early (Again!) before we shift gears and give it to them with the 3rd goal coming late in the game leaving no doubt about who the better TEAM was.
2-1 USA over Portugal in a close one where Geoff does work on Ronaldo. At some point cameras pan to Ronaldo sitting on the floor, legs outstretched, pounding the pitch for not a getting a call as Cameron looks back and smiles.
2-2 Against Germany, in a game that has a PK not called in favor of the US, Neuer making several big time saves right up until the US gets the equalizer in the dying moments of the game off a scramble in the box. Germany takes the group thanks to a 4+ goal differential.....

Too optimistic?

 

Idk what you're smoking but pass that

 

Unfortunately, Portugal is, and has often been less than the sum of its parts. Are Portugal's players, even absent Ronaldo, better than their US counterparts across the board? Sure. But while it does make Portugal a superior collection of individuals, it doesn't make Portugal a better team. I am banking on Portugal continuing to underachieve and choke, which looks like a decent possibility again.