Very complicated group, but which positions get to qualify automatically and which one goes through playoffs?
All the first place teams and the two best second place teams qualify automatically. The 6 remaining second place teams compete in a home-home playoff series for the 3 remaining UEFA spots. Can someone clarify how they determine the "best" second place teams since some groups have 6 teams and others have 7? Is it simply a percentage of total possible points?
We won't qualify automatically--that can happen only with a miracle. There is a good, plausable scenario where France beats Switzerland (which really should happen) and Ireland draws Switzerland (which might happen seeing as how Ireland has been playing). There are also a number of scenarios where Cyprus or Faroe springs an upset.
If Ireland and Switzerland draw then we have to hope that Ireland doesn't beat Cyprus. In the home tie they beat Cyprus 3-0. That might be too much to hope for, really.
In groups with 7 teams the points and goals won against the lowest ranked team are getting ereased for the "best second"-calculation.
Really? So I guess its basically impossible to tell who is where until we know exactly who all the last placed teams are. That's an interesting method. It actually favors the teams in the 6 nation groups.
Kappa18 I love how everything that happens to Kappa18 isn't his fault. It is either me or some other "anti semite". How does this yellow card have anything to do with me? I don't have the power to hand out yellow cards even.
Re: Kappa18 seems like last time when i was handed the yellow card, it was becuase of you and it was for like 1.5 years. You had to be the dictator of it all. But unless you got a better word to define people doing SS than i have yet to hear, 'anti-semite' can we please get back to the focus of WCQ and the game. As for Odessit19 question, yes, yes..i am completely satisfied with the decision of a yellow card. Afterall, KYHS's mentality could have been alot worse...
I was hoping we would capitalize on the Faroe Islanders. We needed atleast 10 goals in 2 games. We are not trying hard enough. The thing with Switzerland is that, although they have a tough draw, they played Faroe early and won comfortably...but then squandered for a 2-1 victory... Its really a difficult thing to see... Im guessing the worst is that Ireland pulls back, because it was just insane how both France-Ireland played. I was thinking that Ireland was a sure winner.
I agree .... I thought for sure the irish were going to capatilize on this game against france. The irish were confused and were not moving , , the french were crappy but managed a goal by henry. unbelievable games today. We did not need that result by ireland, france, we needed them to draw. This is not good for Israel, but we still have a chance. Damm irish can't do a thing right in this qualifier.
I have felt that Israel needed to get three in Basel but got the Draw. Knew they will get points on Faroe Islands in the home & home games. It's all about what the French, Swiss & Irish do to each other.
Please see post #121. Israel cannot win the group unless it beats Faroe, Cyprus defeats France and Ireland, and Switzerland and France draw, and Ireland defeats Switzerland. In that case, we wind up with Israel 18, FR. 17, Switz. 17 and Ireland 16. There is no way a side faced with "win or go home" is going to lose points to Cyprus. So let's forget about winning the group. There is also no way that Israel finishes second and qualifies directly for a spot. Only two second-place finishers earn that honor, and England and Croatia are already assured of finishing with more points than Israel's maximum of 18. There are only two ways Israel qualifies for a playoff, each requires it to defeat Faroe. First, assume Cyprus loses its two remaining matches. Then, France has to beat Switzerland and Switzerland/Ireland must draw. This leaves Switzerland and Ireland with 17 and France cruises with 22. Israel finishes second with 18. This is the only realistic scenario in which Israel survives. Second, assume Cyprus helps a little. If Cyprus defeats or draws Ireland in Nicosia and loses to France in Paris, and Ireland defeats Switzerland in Dublin, and France defeats or draws Switzerland in Berne (and defeats Cyprus), France finishes first and Israel second. If Cyprus defeats France but loses to Ireland, and France defeats Switzerland, and Ireland defeats Switzerland, Israel finishes third. We'd need Cyprus to defeat France, and France and Switzerland to draw, OR Cyprus defeats France, France defeats Switzerland, and Switz/Ireland draw. For the next matchday, root for Cyprus to draw or defeat Ireland (not likely) and France to beat Switzerland. If that occurs, then root on the final matchday for a draw between Ireland and Switz, and Israel make the playoff. There are other permutations involving France and/or Switz drawing both matches to get to 18 and draw Israel, but I think Israel would lose most tiebreakers. There are 243 possible outcomes. 81 (Israel losing) are death. 81 (Israel drawing) are almost all death. 81 (Israel winning) are more than 50% favorable (I think) but many of these involve outcomes that are very unlikely, such as Cyprus winning a match the other team needs to win to survive. Realistically, I'd put Israel's chances at making the playoff at about 10%. Assuming Cyprus loses its remaining matches and Israel wins, we would be at FRA 19, ISR 18, IRL 16 and SUI 16, and there are 9 potential outcomes from the other two matches, SUI/FRA and IRL/SUI. Only one outcome (FRA over SUI and IRL/SUI draw) results in Israel making the playoff. That's 1/9 or 11%, assuming FRA, IRL and SUI are equally matched and all results are equally likely. One other outcome (FRA/SUI draw and IRL/SUI draw) results in Israel and Switz. being drawn. Israel and Switz drew both of their matches, but Switz has a better overall goal differential, so Israel would have to beat FAR by 7 or 8 goals. There is a theoretical possiblity of Israel drawing Faroe and still making the playoff but it involves ridiculous assumptions.
Basel was impossible to get 3 points. We should have done it in Israel. The thing with this group is that since France wins and seems they can win 1 of the 3 top teams (Irl, Swi, Isr) than anyone can win, and im afraid that if one team ones, than the other manages to draw... but if all goes, well, France might be the lone wildcard after Cyprus and they can take easy points off our rivalry and clear our path to 2nd...