I meant what I said and I said what I meant. MLS will be a top league in the World by 2022 one-hund

France isn't a Big 4 league
Gatt still plays for Molde

And you're right about Pearce. So 1 player I forgot out of dozens of US players that have played in Scandinavian leagues.

Not quite sure how that diminishes my point any.

And for the record, if someone starts a sentence with the phrase "I believe...." it means that they aren't 100% sure. Consider that to be a free reading comprehension lesson.

 

Ridge copied an article I wrote on the same subject about 6 months earlier.

 

According to agents surveyed in this study they were pretty positive in 2011. I'm guessing they'll stay pretty positive this year. So, no European collapse that should be banked on.

 

Garber is simply terrified that we will end up with 2 or 3 clubs spending huge wages and completely dominating the rest of the league as the bottom 4-19 can't compete. NY has already stated if they could sign 7 or more DP's they would, and you know what NY'ers would probably than come out, but then you end up with the same thing that brought down the NASL... Its a tricky slope, but if Garber really wants to be a top league (which is what exactly?) than you almost have to throw the whole parity equation out the window. You can't have a big league and parity.. never happened and will never work.

 

Maybe you can. But I think having a top-tier league with parity would literally make us as star-studded as, oh, several other top leagues combined. We'd be the greatest league in the world if we could bring in the great talents and do so evenly.

 

NFL

 

NBA
MLB
NHL

 

Brazil has always had a good level of parity.

 

Hell....if you want to look at soccer, the Budesliga is a fairly balanced league. Outside of Bayern Munich, there really isn't any "dominant" team in Germany.

Since the 2006/07 season 11 different teams have finished in the top 4. And of those 11 teams, only Munich has been in the top 4 more than four times.

That's about as parity driven of a league as there is in any sport anywhere.

 

I think the most ambitious goal that could realistically be achieved would be to become the 7th best league in 10 years. The top 6 (England, Germany, Spain, Italy, France, and Brazil) are all very rich and I don't see how MLS could compete with them without a huge TV contract. However, the next tier of leagues after that are leagues like the Eredivisie, J-league, and the Championship, with average club revenues that are only about double the average revenue in MLS. Of those leagues, the Eredivisie is probably the strongest since the Netherlands is good at developing players and they don't have to pay far above the international market rate for domestic players like England and Japan do.

MLS needs to do a lot of work to improve it's player development if it wants to match the Eredivisie in that respect, but it has at least 3 significant advantages when it comes to retaining players. The first advantage is that most Americans do not have EU passports, which makes it more difficult for European leagues to poach our players. The second advantage is that the US generally has lower taxes than Europe, so MLS does not necessarily need to match the gross salaries of European leagues to match their net salaries. The third advantage is that single entity helps drive down the cost of players since MLS teams do not have to bid against each other for their services.

So for MLS to become a top 7 league, they really need to do 3 things:
1) Greatly improve player development.
2)Match the top non-big 5 European leagues in average revenue per club (currently about double MLS)
3)Increase spending on wages as a percentage of revenue.
Trying to reach that level in 10 years would be a pretty ambitious goal, but I don't think that it is unachievable.

 

Liga MX?

 

I think you can throw Liga MX into that same group of 2nd tier leagues and it really doesn't change his point at all.

If MLS is on par with the Eredivisie by 2022, it will also be better than Liga MX. Unless of course you're suggesting that Liga MX is the 5th or 6th best league in the world, which would be a whole different can of worms.

 

I believe you are correct.

 

Well Monterrey did very well against the current J-League Champions.

But yes after Brazil (at least in the Americas) there is a big drop to Argentina and then to Mexico.

His point is a good one, it depends on revenues and the economic opportunity in countries, Brazil is doing very well, but so is Mexico.

Catching something standing still is one thing, but we must remember the other leagues are also growing, while we have a higher ceiling (Biggest GDP), we also have more competition for those entertainment dollars.

Also if 10 years from now MLS teams are still getting their asses kicked (until my FIRE wins the CCL ) then we really can’t say MLS can be in par with Eurodivise, regardless of revenues (American leagues spend a lower percentage of revenues on salaries).

 

But you're not 100% sure?

 

I suspect you may be right.

 

I don't think there is a single person stupid enough to think that if MLS is on par 10 years from now to what the Eredivisie is today that its "mission accomplished."

 

I actually think u can make an argument that the Eredivise has gotten weaker since Bosman really started taking effect, and that they may not get that much better. Bigger leagues are always gonna gobble up their better players fairly quickly....even in todays economy.

 

Relative to the top leagues yes (Growing slower than the other leagues), but in terms of Revenues they are still growing, so they are a moving target.

you missed my point

but

 

Abso-f*cking-lutely. No argument here. The point I'm making is that nobody is thinking that MLS believes that the rest of the world's leagues won't be shifting as well in the course of the next 10 years - positively or negatively.

 

As far as quality of play. I believe that MLS will acquire rough parity with the Mexican league in about 5 years. In the end there is a definite limit to Mexico's growth (both as a country and a league) which it is rapidly approaching. After that, MLS will not be able to reach parity with Brazil by '22. Brazil still has a lot of growth ahead not to mention that just keeping their talent home will firmly ensconce them in the top 5. They have too many factors in their favor right now. Also, the Russian and Ukrainian leagues have some room for growth still. Really, we're sort of reaching a glut in second tier leagues. I find it hard to believe that MLS will be able to carve a big enough piece of the landscape by '22.

 

Brazil's entire financial model is based on selling players at a massive profit.

If they were to stop doing that, the league would go bankrupt, and it wouldn't be too hard to pass them up at that point.

 

Liga MX markets to two big countries, Mexico is growing, and the Latino population in the USA is also growing. If Liga MX were better at marketing in English I think they would have a high ceiling.

But I do agree on Brazil potential, also to a degree on Russia and the Ukraine.

 

It's been moving to an American style sponsorship based model. Review this article from Brazil. Take note of this quote:

So in essence, the biggest clubs have just gained more in their sponsorship earning than they earn in transfers. The Brazilian economy has been growing by leaps in bound in the last decade and has continued to grow in spite of the global economic depression. It has slowed down in the last few months but it is still growing. In essence, big economy with passionate fan base equals great growth in sponsorship money.

 

Thank you for that information.