HSV 2012/13 - 50th Anniversary Season - A Glimmer of Hope

Discussion in 'Germany: Clubs' started by HSV-Jung, Aug 24, 2012.

  1. HSV-Jung

    HSV-Jung Member

    Jun 15, 2010
    Frankfurt
    Club:
    Hamburger SV
    I must admit I don't know what I have to do or who to ask before starting an "Official" thread or what the deal with the [R] is, but I thought the day of the official start of the season is high time to start a new season thread. If anyone else feels like starting an "Official" thread, please go ahead, I don't harbor any vanities or aspirations in this regard and will gladly see this thread closed down and participate in another one.

    I did however think about a season motto for a bit and decided to keep "The Sleeper Awakes" tucked away for the start of a future season, when there is perhaps more than a glimmer of hope.

    Here is the Transfermarkt.de club overview, which I believe is always a good start if you want any information about the squad:

    http://www.transfermarkt.de/en/hamburger-sv/startseite/verein_41.html

    After suffering the worst season finish in its 50 year Bundesliga history, the team, the club and its fans are going into the new season with mixed feelings. Performance in pre-season friendlies has been shaky and the first round DFB-Cup defeat against 3. Bundesliga team Karlsruher SC not only saw the side tossed out of this competition, but also left us with a dull outlook for the coming Bundesliga season.

    The transfer season has seen a lot of players leave and some new arrivals, no big names but several players with a very promising outlook. Here's an overview:

    http://www.transfermarkt.de/en/hamburger-sv/transfers-alle/verein_41.html

    Please see the HSV summer transfer thread for further discussion of the transfers and the new players. For completeness sake I should mention that we have been promised at least one more player before the transfer window closes on Aug. 31 and right now the hopes and dreams of 38 million HSV worldwide (yes I'm exaggerating) rest on the possible signing of Petr Jiracek from VfL Wolfsburg and more importantly "our little angel" Rafael van der Vaart from Tottenham Hotspur, courtesy of sponsoring from HSV's most potent fan, logistics and trucking magnate Klaus-Michael Kühne (the guy is nearly as rich as Abramovitch).

    Regardless of whether or not these transfers happen, the season outlook is glum for many. HSV followers could easily get the idea that the media is trying to write the club into relegation at the end of the season. Just this week there was a HSV article on Spiegel online titled "Relegation Candidate No. 1." That's a joke of course and it won't happen, but it shows just how worried many people are. Nobody argues against the fact that the current squad is full of potential, but then again you won't find anyone arguing that the team has really gelled at this point or lived up to said potential, either.

    So before we head into the first home game of the season against Nürnberg tomorrow, which HSV should win, I humbly submit my season outlook. I admit it's optimistic, but I don't see it being altogether unrealistic, either.

    No one seriously doubts that Bayern and BVB will decide the two top spots amongst themselves.

    Schalke and Bayer also appear stronger than the rest, and will be the strongest competitors for the two remaining Champions League spots. After that I believe Wolfsburg will be a strong contender, Magath has once again significantly reinforced the team and I believe they will at least qualify for an EL spot.
    Hannover and Gladbach have both had great seasons, both showing a mostly average team with a few key players and a great coach who has managed to elicit the full potential from his respective team. I find these two sides hardest to judge. Will they be able to sustain their runs and perhaps break into the top five again, will they end up in midfield or even suffer a breakdown and find themselves on the lower rungs. I believe it will be between spots 6 and 11.
    That leaves 4 other midlevel teams competing for spots 6 and 7 and the prospects of international competition: Hoffenheim, Stuttgart, Werder and HSV. All four of these teams have had a shaky last season, some with a good end (Stuttgart) others not so (HSV). None of these teams come into the season with a squad that looks at lot stronger than the previous ones and I believe they are all pretty much on par. I hope HSV is able to keep up with this group over the season, perhaps even finish to stronger than a few of them (most importantly Werder of course, but I would also love to see us pull ahead of Hoffenheim and Stuttgart).
    That leaves seven teams which I believe will find themselves at the bottom of the table, fighting to fend off relegation. All of these teams (Freiburg, Nürnberg, Augsburg, Mainz, Fürth, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt) have a much smaller budget than any the other eleven and will see the avoidance of relegation as their main season goal. Overall, I believe the bottom half of the table is weaker than last season and although it's always nice to see one or two of the smaller teams break out into the upper regions of the table, I hope HSV will manage to stay abreast of all of them and have nothing to do with relegation towards the end of the season.

    Club CEO Carl-Edgar Jarchow has given out the minimum season goal of 45 points, which should leave the club comfortably in mid-field and most of us happy, for the time being.

    Nur der HSV!
     
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  2. HSV-Jung

    HSV-Jung Member

    Jun 15, 2010
    Frankfurt
    Club:
    Hamburger SV
    http://hsv-blog.abendblatt.de/

    Matz ab just reported that the Jiracek deal is in the bag. HSV upped their offer to 4 million and Magath accepted it. Now they are still haggling over the extras (bonus payments for certain success scenarios), but it looks like it's a done deal apart from that.

    Jarchow just said again there is nothing new to report on the van der Vaart front, but that also means that the denials from Tottenham and AVB reported in the DailyMail and other outlets today were just smoke. They are still negotiating.
     
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  3. HSV-Jung

    HSV-Jung Member

    Jun 15, 2010
    Frankfurt
    Club:
    Hamburger SV
    Ughh! 0-1 at home against Nürnberg. Headache! Seriously, I have no clue what's wrong, they should be better than this team.

    I'm sure this was a planned move to make sure that Kühne gets desperate enough to dish out sufficient cash so they can sign van der Vaart next week.
     
  4. Homa

    Homa Member

    Feb 4, 2008
    Aachen
    Club:
    FC Schalke 04
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    I don't get how you can see the HSV as a midtable team. The Spiegel article is no joke, the HSV is a serious relegation candidate if no further players are coming. The squad is woeful and Fink is incompetent.

    Jiracek would be a very good signing but you need two more before you can even think about midtable. Maybe Badelj has enough quality to be one of the two, still leaving one major spot open.
     
  5. timh19

    timh19 Member+

    Jul 26, 2011
    I agree.

    When I saw HSV's starting eleven against Nuernberg, I thought .... wow this doesnt look good it is relegation material.Then, they lost and played like crap( i watched only 10 min but I am guessing they did for the whole game) so my fears were confirmed.
     
  6. FC Trout

    FC Trout Member

    Aug 24, 2011
    Helena, Montana
    Club:
    Hamburger SV
    Nat'l Team:
    Czechia
    I keep reminding myself that Fink is the guy who laid the groundwork for ManU's exit from Champions League last year. Let's hope he finds that magic in the coming weeks and months.
     
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  7. HSV-Jung

    HSV-Jung Member

    Jun 15, 2010
    Frankfurt
    Club:
    Hamburger SV
    They had two bad games. I agree that if they continue to play like this, they will be a relegation candidate. But even without further players, if you look at the player material on the squad, the team is much stronger "on paper" (yes I know what that means) than the seven teams listed by me above and pretty much on par with Werder, Hoffenheim and Stuttgart, as well as Hannover and Gladbach, but both of those teams have a distinct coach and "team gel" bonus, which is why they are playing above par. If you want me to back up what I'm saying look at this table:

    http://www.transfermarkt.de/en/1-bundesliga/startseite/wettbewerb_L1.html

    I know those market values are all guess work by so-called "experts", I still believe this is the best overview of "nominal" team strength to be had.

    Now I know the media are all hot and bothered about HSV being relegated in its anniversary season, but if the team even as it is now, can pull together and the seasoned players reach levels of play anywhere near to were to already were, the club will have no problem surviving the season.

    At the same time I do find it disconcerting to note, as Jansen himself said after the game, that there are no visible signs of any development over the last year, so I admit that I too am starting to be more critical of Fink. I think the positive development of individual players is always the best gauge of the work of a coach and by that standard, Fink has completely failed so far. I'm also not happy with his starting line-up a lot of the time.

    The fact remains that since vdV left, we haven't had a creative midfielder. Trochowski was supposed to take on that job, but ultimately he failed and what I don't understand is how that position could be left vacant for so long, because people have been saying that we need reinforcements in the creative department for years. I think last year Arnesen thought that Skjelbred might be able to help here, but I think apart from Tesche this is the one truly hopeless case we have on the squad. Now it looks like we will finally be getting some creativity in the midfield and all I can say is let's wait how these guys integrate and talk again. We're still a long ways away from a horror start like last year.
     
  8. Homa

    Homa Member

    Feb 4, 2008
    Aachen
    Club:
    FC Schalke 04
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    No, there aren't seven teams weaker than you. You finished 15 last season, quite deservedly. You lost your best players in Petric, Guerrero, Töre and Jarolim and so far didn't replace them. Your defense is horrible, your strike force worse, your whole team hierarchy is a mess, a game strategy absent. Fink hasn't had any positive impact despite being there for a year.

    The whole club has been on a severe downward spiral for at least 2-3 years, the two losses are only the newest signs. Transfermarkt's most important valuation tool are paid transfer sums. The relatively high ranking of your squad is more a product of your failed transfer policy and your economic strength than a real representation of the squad's quality.

    The transfers of Jiracek, van der Vaart and Badelj can turn the ship around, propelling you to midtable but that would be true for any relegation candidate. Put the three onto Fürth's or Düsseldorf's squad and their whole outlook changes, too. Give them to Tuchel and Mainz may be playing for a Europa League spot.
     
  9. HSV-Jung

    HSV-Jung Member

    Jun 15, 2010
    Frankfurt
    Club:
    Hamburger SV
    I disagree with you, completely. First of all I resent that the new players are already being trashed without any chance to prove themselves. I still have great expectations for Rudnevs and Beister, even for this season. Marcus Berg has showed quite promising form beginning late last season and over the summer. He's simply had two bad games now and most people forget that he scored against Karlsruhe, too.

    The fact is that with perhaps the exception of Sala, Tesche and Skjelbred we've seen much better from every single player (you can bet that Westermann, Aogo, Diekmeier, Bruma, Rincon, Beister, Jansen and Illicevic would be taken with "Kusshand" by any of the seven weak teams I mentioned and have no problem finding themselves in their starting lineup). The real problem right now is morale. Over the last two years Mainz, Hannover, Gladbach and Nürnberg have each been fighting to barely avoid relegation only to find themselves qualified for EL or even CL the next season (Nürnberg almost qualified for EL a year ago). Each of these clubs achieved this without replacing large parts of the team. The main difference was morale (and new coaches for Hannover and Gladbach). I see morale as the biggest problem in Hamburg right now and it looks like the media and most commenters are doing their utmost to make it even worse.

    The transfermarkt values do provide an accurate reflection of the strength of the team, Hamburg is just playing sub par right now. Another problem is that the lack of midfield players weighs extremely heavy, the Westermann experiment is a mistake (Oenning and Veh tried playing him as a defensive midfielder, too, and he failed, I don't know why Fink insisted on trying it again) and Skjelbred and Son have no passing ability at all, so all they can do is come over the side and try to flank the ball in, a strategy that is quite easy to defend against. That is precisely why the new players will make a much bigger impact with the HSV team than they could for any other team.

    And then about HSV deservedly finishing 15, you're making it out to sound like they finished miles behind everyone else. HSV had six points less than Werder at the end of the season, mostly due to some unfortunate ties during the last few games. This means that if you take out the two games between HSV and Werder or if HSV had won just one of those two games, they would have been exactly on par, but nobody ever mentioned Werder and relegation in one sentence all season long. And in the season final table you can see Augsburg, Freiburg, Nürnberg, Hoffenheim and Mainz between HSV and Werder, four of them four or less points ahead of HSV, but nobody ever talks about them being lucky or fighting to barely stave off relegation. It's all hyperbole!
     
  10. Homa

    Homa Member

    Feb 4, 2008
    Aachen
    Club:
    FC Schalke 04
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Bremen got their 40th point on match day 27. They were never mentioned in the relegation battle because they were never in it, not even close despite a second half even worse than Hamburgs. They also revamped their whole squad in the summer break getting a bunch of promising new players, which Hamburg, despite losing some important players, so far didn't do.

    I don't get how you can take the Transfermarkt's values as a decent assessment of quality. You should take Guerrero's transfer as an example and subtract at least 30% of value of all of last years players to get a half way realistic view. That would put the HSV right at the top of the relegation candidates in term of squad value, not much better than Mainz, Freiburg, Frankfurt etc.
    No, I don't think players like Aogo or Diekmeier would become instant starters on one of the weaker teams.

    Well, you are right in pointing out that small changes can result in big jumps in the table. I doubt that morale is the main problem for the HSV but a good morale helps. If you can get a couple of good players to strengthen the team, as it looks likely, and Fink somehow finds his groove, which I doubt, you can very well finish in the top half though I think qualification for an Europa cup looks impossible.
     
  11. FC Trout

    FC Trout Member

    Aug 24, 2011
    Helena, Montana
    Club:
    Hamburger SV
    Nat'l Team:
    Czechia
    In what amounts to a virtual free market on soccer/football players -- unlike some leagues (NFL, MLB, NBA) with free-agent bargaining powers, which aren't coupled to a team's transfer fee -- I'd say market value is a very good measure of a team's strength. Certainly some players flop, while others overachieve, but statistically it works out very quickly with thousands of players as data points. I'm also thinking of the book Soccernomics, which found statistical correlations between spending and success, rather than profitability and success. (That's why ManU, Barca and other debt-laden teams shouldn't worry too much.)
    Have held forth on that, however, only the final damn Bundesliga table will prove it all out! Could this next match vs. Werder Bremen be any bigger?
     
  12. Homa

    Homa Member

    Feb 4, 2008
    Aachen
    Club:
    FC Schalke 04
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    I have no problem with assessing a team's strength on market value per se, the problem is finding the current market value. That is especially true for players who have been with their recent clubs for quite some time.

    Transfermarkt tackles this problem with open discussions where users can offer their valuations and their reasoning but these are in the end just guesses. Unless an actual transfer happens the values will only be changed once or twice a year, even then the changes will be careful and gradually.

    The problem here is that Hamburg's management may well have overestimated the value of their players for quite some time. This would lead to inflated transfer payments and that to an inflated team value which does not reflect the real quality of the squad.
    In fact that is the root of the whole problem. If their player judgements had been correct Hamburg wouldn't even be in this situation.

    An additional problem is the image (renomee, reputation or whatever) of a club. A player playing at Bayern will automatically get an higher rating compared to playing at Schalke f.e. if Bayern would qualify this year only for the EL and next year fail even at that, the team value at Transfermarkt most probably wouldn't reflect that. The value would still be quite a bit higher than a usual midtable team.
    The bias towards bigger clubs isn't unreasonable but it becomes a problem if the fortune's of that club change for worse relatively rapidly.

    These are the two main points why I don't think the current value of Hamburg's squad at Transfermarkt is a reasonable assessment of its quality. You have to exclude the new players though.
     
  13. Lamprey

    Lamprey Member

    Jul 2, 2010
    Las Vegas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  14. FC Trout

    FC Trout Member

    Aug 24, 2011
    Helena, Montana
    Club:
    Hamburger SV
    Nat'l Team:
    Czechia
    So the model relies on crowd sourcing to establish market values. Any idea of how many people participate in the market value discussion? I can't find any methodology information on transfermarkt.de/en.
    I don't see crowd sourcing as a problem for approximate values, assuming there is enough participation. One wonders, however, how many participate in the estimation in, say, the Effo (Faroe Islands Premier League)!
    As for HSV overpaying for players, that's something I don't know about. Would they be the only offenders?
    Thanks for the interesting discussion....
     
  15. HSV-Jung

    HSV-Jung Member

    Jun 15, 2010
    Frankfurt
    Club:
    Hamburger SV
    I'm not usually a fan of Honigstein's, as usual he pics up the sentiment of the general media and adds his own blabber. Of course Homa is right when he says that Werder was rightly never seen as a relegation candidate last season, but I think the comparison is still very interesting, especially with respect to what Honigstein wrote.

    Yes, Werder signed de Bruyne and HSV didn't, but what he negelcted to mention was that de Bruyne only came on a one-year loan and there is no purchase option (I know HSV was thinking about signing Lukaku on loan during the winter and they could have probably never gotten him, but Arnesen has since said that they didn't want to sign anyone on loan in addition to Bruma). Apart from that Werder signed Petersen, also on a loan and Elia, a player who has been nothing short of a complete disappointment ever since he got injured when he was at HSV. On top of that they got Selassie, Sokratis, Lukimya and Akpala. All of them decent players, but none of them big name stars with a performance guarantee nor a guarantee of being adequate replacements for Pizarro, Marin, Naldo and Rosenberg.

    If you include the transfer fee for Jiracek, HSV and Werder spent about the same money on transfers this summer, but in comparison to the above group, I think HSV doesn't look that bad: Adler, Rudnevs, Badelj, Scharner, Jiracek and Calhanoglu, none of them on loan.

    Both teams lost both of their first games. I admit losing 2:1 to BVB away and looking good doing so is a different thing than losing 0:1 to Nürnberg at home and looking awful doing so, but still they both lost and they are both out of the DFB-Cup and in my mind Preussen Münster is a much weaker team than KSC, even though they have a better standing in the 3. League table right now.

    What I'm trying to say is that in comparison to Werder, HSV doesn't really look that bad, but if the media can be believed, Werder is doing a great job with its transition and well on its way back to international competition, while HSV is relegation candidate No. 1. I've even read an article where several experts voiced their forecast for the season. Transfer Flop of the Summer: Rudnevs. Best Transfer of the Summer: Elia. (Remember: Rudnevs was the top scorer of the Polish league last season, matching Lewandowski's performance from two years earlier in every way and scoring 3 goals against Juventus while Elia hasn't had three good games in a row for three years now). Can you tell something is off? Perhaps now you can begin to understand my frustration. The picture painted of HSV in the media is pure hyperbole. If we lose six games in a row, there will still be plenty of time to start gloating over a possible HSV relegation. Until then I say: Stop the bashing and at least give the new transfers a few games to get settled into the team.

    On a more positive note, it looks like van der Vaart may really be coming. According to Mopo and other news sources, he wants to leave the club and has reached an agreement with HSV on his contract. Currently Tottenham is still asking for 18 million and HSV is offering 12, they have three days to come to an agreement. I think it looks pretty good. Tottenham will try to cash in on him as it's his last year on his contract and he is 30 years old, otherwise they will just have him on the bench for a year, complaining and leaving for free next summer. There also doesn't seem to be another team that wants to sign him, offering a higher amount than HSV.
     
  16. Homa

    Homa Member

    Feb 4, 2008
    Aachen
    Club:
    FC Schalke 04
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    The "analysis" is done in the message board section "Marktwertanalyse". There is also a thread discussing the rules "Richtlinien (in Arbeit)". The English version Transfermarkt.co.uk does the same in its message board in English covering mainly the Premier League.

    You can find a direct link to each player's thread on the player's profile page. Here is an example of the profile page:
    http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/en/carl-jenkinson/profil/spieler_126321.html
    Third point on the right side "Discussions...". The German side has the same layout, so you should easily find the links there, too, even if you don't understand German.

    I find the discussions not very enlighting. Participation relies heavily on the player's and his club's popularity. Of course club supporters are usually a big part of the discussion which immediatly raises question's of objectivity. The reasonings are often simplistic of the nature "played a good/bad season....".


    You can use Transfermarkt as a tool but it is very rough. It gives you an decent but rough overview of a league and team but has very real weakness. It is, in my opinion, not reliable for a deeper analysis.

    I usual use it to get informations about past transfers, when they happend, the sums involved, club's transfer balance's etc, which are quite handy and reliable enough. For example a couple of months ago I looked up Schalke's transfer balances for last 15 years or so to find out when the overspending really started.
    You can also use the site to get some rarer statistics like playing time (minutes played), injuries etc which aren't all that easy to find for German players.
     
  17. Homa

    Homa Member

    Feb 4, 2008
    Aachen
    Club:
    FC Schalke 04
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    I agree with you on Elia. I was scared to death when I read rumours about Schalke being interested in him. I'm more than glad that he went to a different club.

    There is some media bias regarding the HSV and of course they are exaggerating, no club is yet in danger of relegation. I guess one problem is the late arrival of your most important new players. Badelj, Jiracek and the mysterious third haven't even arrived at the club yet. Of course that is mainly Arnesen's fault for not signing suitable players earlier.

    While the loans of Petersen and de Bruyne won't help Bremen long term, they do help them this season. If you want to discuss the probability of relegation this year, you have to take them into account. Calhanoglu on the other hand may be a fantastic signing long term but he can't help Hamburg this season.

    An important aspect of a relegation battle is always the club environment. It will most probably get worse and even toxic at more clubs but everything is calm in the rest of the league at the moment while the infighting already started in Hamburg. Fink doesn't have much credit and never showed that he can be a successful coach in the Bundesliga. Schaaf, Tuchel, Hecking etc did, the coaches of the newly relegated clubs have some credit from last season.
     
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  18. FC Trout

    FC Trout Member

    Aug 24, 2011
    Helena, Montana
    Club:
    Hamburger SV
    Nat'l Team:
    Czechia
    I'll agree with you on that -- a very rough comparison tool!
     
  19. FC Trout

    FC Trout Member

    Aug 24, 2011
    Helena, Montana
    Club:
    Hamburger SV
    Nat'l Team:
    Czechia
    So CEO Uwe Seeler calls a public meeting tomorrow? Did I get that right?
    Is it a venting session -- or a big announcement? Would they give Arneson the boot, with all that Chelsea talk?
     
  20. Alex_K

    Alex_K Member+

    Mar 23, 2002
    Braunschweig, Germany
    Club:
    Eintracht Braunschweig
    Nat'l Team:
    Bhutan
    Judging by the quality of transfermarkt's forums, which are overrun by half-literate teenager, participation is the least of their problems. And if you go beyond the Bundesliga you get stuff like "I don't know anything about this player, but I think he is overrated".
     
  21. Alex_K

    Alex_K Member+

    Mar 23, 2002
    Braunschweig, Germany
    Club:
    Eintracht Braunschweig
    Nat'l Team:
    Bhutan
    Seeler holds no position at HSV anymore.
     
  22. FC Trout

    FC Trout Member

    Aug 24, 2011
    Helena, Montana
    Club:
    Hamburger SV
    Nat'l Team:
    Czechia
    Ah...gracias
     
  23. HSV-Jung

    HSV-Jung Member

    Jun 15, 2010
    Frankfurt
    Club:
    Hamburger SV
    I'm really ticked off about all the news on Arnesen being up for the sack. Pretty much every single news outlet has picked up on this. The fact is that there are no facts behind it. What is fact is that bunches of people, all of the club outsiders currently, have stated their disappointment with the club and Arnesen's work over the last week including Töpperwien, Lattek, Basler and Seeler himself. None of these guys really know what's going on so they should just shut up. And then we know that Arnesen was less involved on the Jiracek transfer and the vdV negotiations. Jiracek approached the club himself and for some reason Jarchow and Hilke (CEO and CFO) have taken on all negoations with Kühne, vdV and Levy. Supposedly this is because they were afraid that Arnesen's and Levy's history of disputes might complicate the deal, to me it sounds like they want the glory of having coaxed Hamburg's favorite adopted child back to town. Supervisory board chairman Otto has said there is no problem with Arnesen and no discussion of him leaving. Even if there were, the club could not afford it, I can imagine nothing more detrimental to the club than another nightmare manager search. Personally, I think Arnesen has done very well with the means he was given. It wasn't his fault so many transfers took so long to realize. When you simply don't have the cash, you can't say: Ah screw this, who cares about another EUR 500,000, I want to get this deal signed.
    I mostly fault the media at this point. Apparently they really can't think of a jucier story than HSV being relegated in its double anniversary season. As one commenter on Matz ab said it this morning: That's not reporting, that's sabotage.

    As to van der Vaart. As of last night I have allowed myself to get my hopes up that he will really come this time. We know he's agreed on a three-year contract with the club, Tottenham will let him go and HSV will pay up to EUR 12 million for the transfer. Now it's just Levy asking for EUR 18 million. Fact is that initial reports from the UK last week only mentioned an asking price of EUR 12 million. So when Levy saw that a Richie Rich is in on this deal, he upped his asking price. But in the meantime they have now signed Dembele from Fulham for vdV's position and are trying to sign Affellay from Barca as well. Also, no other clubs have submitted offers for vdV and even if such a club were to appear on the stage, they would have to reach an agreement with vdV first and time is running out. It's his last year on his contract, which means if Levy doesn't sell him by Friday, he will lose EUR 17 million (12 mil transfer fee plus 5 mil on salary) on a guy who will be on the bench as third in line for his position. That's a lot of money, even for Tottenham. He came down on the Modric transfer fee from 50 to 30 million as well. My only fear is that Schalke may come into the mix here at the last minute. They are in Germany (family situation), they have need on that position and they could raise the cash. But I am hopeful it will work out.
     
  24. DRB300

    DRB300 Member+

    Sep 21, 2007
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    The only problems I see for Spurs is goals and the fans. Financially it makes sense to sell an older player for that kind of money. VDV was in his first season top scorer for the club in EPL and last year top scorer for the club after Adebayour (who is not the huge scorer of goals I have a feeling, but more a great overall attacking player). Plus the assists. VDV also is a guy with a lot of assists. Our Portuguese friend is already under a bit of pressure with a loss to Newcastle and a draw to world beaters West Brom. He must be getting nervous with a Levy breathing in his neck. Also VDV is a very popular figure at Spurs if only for always giving Arsenal a hard time. If they sell him and his replacement doe not perform well, fans will exercise more pressure then normally.

    On the other hand I have a strong feeling AVB wants to rejuvenate his squad and VDV is not a fit guy. AVB also went after Lampard at Chelsea and started to sub him. If AVB goes to an attacking 4-3-3 with a lot of pressing, you can write off VDV. He can't do the running. He played there for Netherlands recently against Belgium in an attacking 4-3-3 under van Gaal and midfield is just not strong enough with VDV if you don't have ball possession and have to do the chasing. VDV has also not the greatest understanding of pressing itself in a 4-3-3 by the way. Which is funny if you know where he came from.

    I just hope that if VDV goes to HSV, that there are people behind him that want to work for him and there are people to the sides and front that he can distribute to. Last year even Arsenal player Wilshere was Tweeting his amazement about a VDV pass over 40 or 50 meter that he thought was the best he had seen that year. At the Euro's he still was able to score a great goal from outside the box. If you look at his foreign club history, it was at HSV where he made most 90 minute games. At the other clubs he was more a 70 minute guy or even less. Maybe his fitness will improve again a bit in Germany. He will need it in a team that is struggling, or not, if HSV is improving due to him and the other transfers. His wife also works in Germany, for TV or something, so that is nice. If Schalke needs a 10 and they go for VDV, they have to offer CL. I could understand that being an interesting option as well.

    However I came here to inform about Bruma. My question is how Bruma is seen at the club? Is he seen as a liability or as one of the players that belongs more to the serious players? Do the fans want to see him long term with the club or are they looking for reinforcements on his position? If you look at last year, what are his strengths and what are his weaknesses? I know statistical sites, but the naked eye sees things in context and thereby is IMO still the best.

    I looked at some stats after his last game this past weekend in center defense and he has the highest number of interventions:

    [​IMG]


    Then again he loses the ball a lot:

    [​IMG]


    When attacking, do his interventions often prevent great further danger after unexpected turnover situations when HSV apply a high line or are those easy pick ups from general team work? Is he sloppy in his passing or is above result from wanting to build up properly and his team mates not providing him good options? I heard that his concentration fluctuates. Could that have to do with it? How would you rate his build up and passing in general? Furthermore do HSV fans feel uncomfortable with his speed when being higher up the field and a lot of space exists in the back of the center defenders? If not, does that come from attributing enough speed to Bruma or does he has the proper game reading ability to prevent many nasty situations?

    What is the greatest thread to follow a specific player from HSV? If it is in German, then that is no problem.

    Cheers.
     
  25. HSV-Jung

    HSV-Jung Member

    Jun 15, 2010
    Frankfurt
    Club:
    Hamburger SV
    Correction: There are all kinds of reports on when van der Vaart's contract with the Spurs ends, but the most credible sources seem to say 2014, so that takes some pressure off Tottenham to sell him. To me it still sounds like they have their mind made up to sell him, they just want to make as much money as possible.

    About Bruma, he's probably the new signing from last year that made the least news over the year, but in a positive sense. He seems to have integrated well and is generally seen as a player with a decent performance and much potential. He's also one of the few players who had a good game last Saturday and is generally a sure starter at HSV. I must admit I haven't watched him closely enough to tell you exactly where he stands on tackling, duels, headers, passing, initiation of plays, anticipation etc. As far as I know his tackling and anticipation are quite good, a decent passer but not great with headers. Same as Mancienne and Westermann, his two competitors for the spots in central defense, he is prone to having a good game and then all of a sudden, showing a lapse in concentration which will then result in a horrible pass or standing in the wrong position, leading to the concession of a goal or at least a very tight spot (although this happens to Mancienne and Westermann more frequently). This has specifically been a problem on set pieces. He needs to work on that, but otherwise he is a very solid defender with much potential and most fans would like to see him stay at the club. On occasion Fink tried him out as a fullback (not sure anymore whether he subbed in for Diekmeier (right) or Aogo (left)), it worked out OK but not great (I would imagine Fink sees this not as a general option, but a good option for emergencies).

    No one really knows whether his loan contract, which expires next summer, has a purchase option or not. There is rumored to be one and a rumored asking price of EUR 8 million. We'll have to see how that works out and how he does this year.

    If you are looking for a thread on a HSV forum to follow Bruma, your best bet is the Bruma thread on Transfermarkt.de where you will usually find several entries on his performance after each game:

    http://www.transfermarkt.de/de/jeffrey-bruma/topic/ansicht_13_594914_seite1.html

    There is the more official looking HSV-Forum (www.hsv-forum.de/) but they only have 145 registered users and if they have a Bruma thread, no one has posted on it since April (I did not bother to check further back). The HSV homepage has a fan forum also with a fairly big Bruma thread, but no one has posted on it since June:

    http://forum.hsv.de/index.php?page=Thread&threadID=33331

    I can't recall any discussion of him on Matz ab and there are no other major forums to speak of, so I would say Transfermarkt.de is the place to go.

    Hope this is helpful.
     
    DRB300 repped this.

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