HSV 2011/2012: We aren't that good

Well said, Jung. I am increasingly becoming more confident in our team, mostly due to Fink's apparent brilliance. I'm excited for the final run of the season and I'm even more excited to see what moves are made in the summer as he brings in players of his liking to fit his system. I think with patience and trust in Fink, we could create a club similar to Dortmund.

Before anyone else can call me on it, I should recant my HSV-predictions.

From now on it will be about nothing but survival. I find little solace in the fact that my predictions of the coming four-team battle for spot number seven are largely holding true, with the caveat that HSV has been completely dropped from that competition and that the clubs in midfield are now so closely grouped (due to Werder and Leverkusen not being able to pull away) that it is in fact a five-team battle for spots 5-7. Werder and Leverkusen are still hanging on to spots 5 and 6, but they will have to work hard to hold off the pursuers. Personally, I believe that Leverkusen, Werder and Hannover are best equipped for international competition.

I also believe that Stuttgart and Wolfsburg are currently looking better than they actually are and have had quite a bit of luck along with their upward streak, but that may just be my opinion. I find myself disliking these two more and more.

Being an incorrigible HSV-optimist, I still believe a final spot no. 10 is possible for HSV at this point. I thought the games against Schalke and Wolfsburg were decent and there was some hard luck. If they continue to play that way they will come around, plus they have none of the big teams left to play, apart from Leverkusen (if you consider this a big team).
Augsburg, Köln, Freiburg, Mainz are all within three points and even Nürnberg and Hoffenheim are not out of reach. Hoffenheim leads by six points, but Hamburg will hopefully be able to make some of that up when they face each other. Seven games left, nur der HSV. The game against Kaiserslautern will be crucial.

Should have had a point against Wolsburg. The second goal that Wolfsburg scored definitely should have saved.

My emotions this year:

Good news, Abendblatt just reported that Artjoms Rudnevs and HSV have reached an agreement on signing the Latvian striker in the summer as replacement for Petric. The agreement is said to be contingent upon HSV playing 1. Bundesliga next season, but to me that's a given. Let's hope this information is accurate, because this kid is a hot commodity on the market, Dortmund and Gladbach were very interested in him. Currently playing for Lech Posen and making a name for himself, the player shows some parallels to Robert Lewandowski.

Abendblatt makes people pay to view their articles so here's a Sportbild-Link:
http://sportbild.bild.de/SPORT/bund...wohl-im-sommer-als-petric-ersatz-zum-hsv.html

Where is Petric going? Him and Guerrero for life up-front

Interesting. The situation looks pretty bad.

Dont count your chickens before they're hatched.

This weekend against kaiserslautern should be an easy win but after that leverkusen at home, hoffenheim away, hannover at home,nurnberg away , mainz at home and augsburg away who have a great home record.

I can easily see 4 losses out of those 6 games based on the current form.Apart from 'lautern, only Hertha and Koeln look as bad as you. If you get 16th place, it will be good I think.Then you will have a play off.

I hope you dont get relegated.

Probably back to Basel his first club..Petric has gotten old fast..Petric was a class player who played through alot of injuries which is why i think he has really lost it and looks half the player he used to be..I will never forget the goal Petric scored against England to knock them out of Euros..

Finally, another win. Always amazing to see the difference that three little points can make in a situation as this.
I admitted previously, I'm an insufferable optimist, but I stand by my assumption that HSV can still pass all teams up to Hoffenheim. That's a difference of four points. The good thing is that HSV will still meet all these teams directly. The club is not safe yet, but I'm willing to bet that if they can win two out of these six games, which should be possible, they won't be relegated.
I was very glad to see another good game from Markus Berg. Having been injured so much of the time I always felt that he was never given a proper chance to prove himself when he was actually fit. I always hoped he would come around one day. I know this is a minority opinion and most fans view him as an expensive disappointment, but I feel his day may yet come and perhaps it's come now, there definitely couldn't be a better time for it. It was also good to see a fairly good game from Mancienne.

Then I'd be glad for Marcell Jansen to maintain his good form for at least several games. Overall I was among his long-time supporters and always felt that if he could only stay fit for a while he could prove to be a huge asset to the club, as he has done at times. But over the course of this season I just lost faith in him. Touches of brilliance flare up now and again like sunshine on a rainy day, but overall he's just too inconsistent. And the fact that he still seems to consider himself one of the most promising talents in Germany doesn't help, either. He probably still sees himself in the running for a spot in the national team for the EURO. I wouldn't mind if he can keep up his current form (meaning the last game) until the end of the season and then look like a good buy to some other team in the summer. You could probably still make 7 million in transfer fees with him on a good day. I think HSV could do much better with that money.
One last observation from Saturday: Jacopo Sala did really well subbing in for Diekmeier. This was a surprise move by Fink but apparently it worked quite well. Since Diekmeier will be out for a bit, it appears likely that Fink will try this again. Since we have absolutely no backup for Diekmeier, I like this move and who knows, maybe Sala will take after Piszczek. He too, started as a midfielder or offensive winger and now he's arguably the best right fullback in the Bundesliga.

Once again I find myself eating my words. Unbelievable! Every aspect of it! Lost 4:0! Against Hoffenheim! I'm speechless! Nearly. Aghast! Definitely. This has to be rock bottom, it just has to be. After so many previous rock bottoms this season.
What's almost more incredible is that we are still in position 14 and there are four clubs doing even worse than us, with tougher games yet outstanding. So not all hope is lost.
They have to pull it together now, they simply have to. Not only to avoid relegation, but also to avoid starting a discussion on the replacement of Arnesen and Fink. We can't switch the management team again at this point, that will push the club over the brink.
To make matters worse, Xhaka will apparently be signing a deal with Gladbach. There's still no one to help improve the midfield. I think more than anything we need one good defensive midfielder and one good offensive midfielder. By far the biggest need right now!
Personally, I think Arnesen should make an indecent proposal to Moritz Leitner. With the resurgence of Gündogan and Kehl's and Bender's lasting form, Leitner must be seeing that his prospects of seeing a lot of playing time in the near future are are none too bright right now. If HSV were to offer the seven million they bid for Xhaka in the winter, I think they might just go for it.

I just....I can't......UGH. This is just so embarrassing. We better make some SERIOUS moves this off-season.

Well, the game against Hannover was an encouraging one and due to the fact that FC Cologne lost on Sunday, we are now five points up on relegation spot 16. I sympathize with FC Köln and don't want them to have to step down again, but this is HSV and right here and now it's live or die.

Having said this, I would wager, for what it's worth, there is a 60% chance these five points should ensure survival even if HSV doesn't score another single point. If they manage to score another win that should definitely place them above the bar. I just read an article on relegation history and while it's theoretically possible to be relegated with more than fifty points and Karlsruhe was once relegated with 38 points, for some reason 37 points seems to be considered the magical safety threshold (I've seen that number in at least four different articles from different sources over the last few weeks).

Of course that's not what the team is aiming for. If you can believe what they're writing in Mopo and on Matz ab, the team will go all out this weekend to close the deal in the game against the Club (Nuremberg). This will not only help them to at least end the season on a positive note and an upward trend, but also give them certainty for their planning and in the upcoming transfers. Still haven't made up my mind on Adler: if he can achieve his level of two years ago again that would be wonderful. If not, we have a problem, because if he does come, Drobny will almost certainly leave. Adler is a certain health-risk and our back ups, Neuhaus and Mickel have demonstrated their unfitness for Bundesliga play several times this season, harsh as that may sound.

With all the bad performances this season I think one thing is not being pointed out enough as being a matter of some significance. Ever since Fink started, the team has always followed the same game strategy, aiming for possession based, forward attacking football. They often did this at their own peril, the defense not being good enough yet, do deal with this high-risk strategy and the offense not being clinical enough in front of the goal. Another problem, likely the biggest, is the lack of creativity in the offensive midfield. Possession doesn't help you much if you don't know what to do with the ball. That is how they were able to lose a game 4-1 despite having 60% possession (Stuttgart). They have dominated in possession in nearly all of their games, even against Bayern they were about equal. I think that speaks for a game plan and an idea of what they want their games to look like. The deficiencies are something you can work on. Now the amazing thing is that contrary to pretty much any other team in danger of relegation over the last years, and this is what's not being pointed out enough, they never gave up this strategy, no matter how bad it looked. Most trainers would have long abandoned their ambitions of a "long term strategy" in favor of playing a defensive game, letting the opponent come on and waiting for counter-attack opportunities. This is how the notable turnarounds of the last two seasons were accomplished (Gladbach and Hannover for instance). I think it's a gutsy move for Fink to stand by his plan, in spite of the risk of relegation and I'm glad it's worked out at least to the extent that it seems like they will stay in the league.
You cannot become Barcelona or even Dortmund over a period of a few weeks. It takes time and you have to stick by your strategy, I for one am glad they're doing that.

Two more things:

There are three more games to play: away at Nuremberg, at home in Mainz and away in Augsburg. All three opponents are beatable and Nuremberg and Mainz may already be considered safe, i.e. they're not really playing for anything anymore, while Augsburg may be expected to put up a fierce fight for survival in the league. Ever the optimist, at this time I still believe a final spot 11 in the tables is possible, if we can manage to beat Nuremberg and Mainz I daresay that's even likely.

Finally, the Forbes soccer club valuations list has just been published and HSV is in spot 16.
http://www.forbes.com/soccer-valuations/list/
Contrary to the Deloitte money list, which focuses only on revenue, this list is a more comprehensive assessment of the brand value. On both lists HSV is in the worldwide top 20 and the German top four. In terms of game attendance and fan background, HSV can probably be placed in similar spheres (in spite of having just five fans on Big Soccer). Of course this is all great, but it also easily makes HSV the biggest underperformer among the "big" European teams (among which the team has not really been considered to be for some time now, in spite of all these figures). So here's to hoping that Fink's long-term strategy will prove to be the right course and bear fruit and help the team to retake their "rightful" place amongst Europe's finest clubs. Nur der HSV!

http://youtu.be/L7BJRA9y68s

Can someone tell me who has the ball at 0:06, the one who then plays the ball over the top?

I'd guess Rincon (trikot nr 8) but I'm not very familiar with Hamburg's players.

@ Ventilan :

It's Rincon as Homa said. The current captain for Venezuela national football team.

Danke, guys.

That was a great move. How do you rate him, overall? I have watched some Hamburger matches in the last couple of seasons but not with him on, I believe.

Rincon is great. He is our only consistent central midfielder. Tesche and Kacar have been average on good days and awful on their not so good days. Jarolim has played a great second half of the season, sorry to see him go. But Rincon is definitely the most important of all these guys.

Obviously we have no offensive midfield at this time.

Well, that was it: another tie against Mainz in the last homegame of the season. Well, the season is over, we won't be relegated. Schwamm drüber.

Let's see what happens over the summer. It looks like the eagle will land soon and Comrade Rudnevs will fly in also. Now let's see what the will do about the midfield.

Thank you for the reply the other day, Jung. I may have another player's progress to follow, then. HSV will, hopefully, add some quality to the midfield to help him out.

Ya, we have a lot of work to do this off-season. I'm looking forward to Rudnevs and Adler, but we could really use a CB (Felipe Santana, perhaps?) and a few midfielders.

As much as I would have liked to see it, it looks like Santana will be signed by Leverkusen, much to everyone's surprise. We'll learn about Arnesen's new signings when he announces them, he's been pretty strong on confidentiality.

I guess the season's over now and we 're at spot 14, no chance to go further than that anymore and if we should lose to Augsburg they will switch places with us in the table. Not that it matters much.

Before we chalk off this season I gotta say that the penalty against Guerrero still rankles me. At the time of his booking he was pretty much our most important offensive player and when his penalty was handed out was the moment things started going bad.

To prove that DFB once again put one over on HSV (the club seems to have no support there whatsoever) one need only ask when was the last time a player was suspended for eight games. For fun one might ask when a player was last suspended for eight games for making a play against another player who was able to get right up and keep playing without any problems whatsoever. (Hint: I don't think it's happened before). Then compare that with the last time we saw a foul comparable to the Guerrerro foul, I assure you, you won't need to look beyond this last season.

Of course the entire affair has had a positive aspect also. Who knows if Son and Berg would have been able to improve the way they did alongside Guerrero. They definitely wouldn't have seen as much playing time.

Rudnevs signed a four year contract today. Finally!!!

http://www.spox.com/de/sport/fussba...n-zum-hamburger-sv-perfekt-frank-arnesen.html

Adler is very close to signing, too.