Trivia question before we begin: what two CONCACAF teams have ever had a winning record away from home in a single hex? dna77054 made a good point about Honduras in this sentence: Let's investigate home and away records in CONCACAF WCQ semifinals and the hex (CONCACAF WCQ finals) in the hex era (which is also the three-points-for-a-win era). HONDURAS 2014 semifinal: 2W-0D-1L at home, 1W-2D-0L away 2010 hex: 4W-0D-1L at home, 1W-1D-3L away 2010 semifinal: 3W-0D-0L at home, 1W-0D-2L away (missed the 2006 hex) 2006 semifinal: 0W-3D-0L at home, 1W-1D-1L away 2002 hex: 2W-0D-3L at home, 2W-2D-1L away 2002 semifinal: 3W-0D-0L at home, 2W-0D-1L away (missed the 1998 hex) 1998 semifinal: 1W-1D-1L at home, 1W-0D-2L away Total at home: 15W-4D-6L Total away: 9W-6D-10L Average points at home: 49/25 Average points away: 33/25 Difference: 16/25 USA 2014 semifinal: 3W-0D-0L at home, 1W-1D-1L away 2010 hex: 4W-1D-0L at home, 2W-1D-2L away 2010 semifinal: 3W-0D-0L at home, 2W-0D-1L away 2006 hex: 5W-0D-0L at home, 2W-1D-2L away 2006 semifinal: 2W-1D-0L at home, 1W-2D-0L away 2002 hex: 4W-0D-1L at home, 1W-2D-2L away 2002 semifinal: 2W-1D-0L at home, 1W-1D-1L away 1998 hex: 3W-2D-0L at home, 1W-3D-1L away 1998 semifinal: 3W-0D-0L at home, 1W-1D-1L away Total at home: 29W-5D-1L Total away: 12W-12D-11L Average points at home: 92/35 Average points away: 48/35 Difference: 44/35 COSTA RICA 2014 semifinal: 1W-1D-1L at home, 2W-0D-1L away 2010 hex: 4W-0D-1L at home, 1W-1D-3L away 2010 semifinal: 3W-0D-0L at home, 3W-0D-0L away 2006 hex: 4W-0D-1L at home, 1W-1D-3L away 2006 semifinal: 2W-0D-1L at home, 1W-1D-1L away 2002 hex: 3W-2D-0L at home, 4W-0D-1L away 2002 semifinal: 3W-0D-0L at home, 0W-1D-2L away 1998 hex: 3W-2D-0L at home, 0W-1D-4L away 1998 semifinal: 3W-0D-0L at home, 1W-0D-2L away Total at home: 26W-5D-4L Total away: 13W-5D-17L Average points at home: 83/35 Average points away: 44/35 Difference: 39/35 MEXICO 2014 semifinal: 3W-0D-0L at home, 3W-0D-0L away 2010 hex: 5W-0D-0L at home, 1W-1D-3L away 2010 semifinal: 3W-0D-0L at home, 0W-1D-2L away 2006 hex: 5W-0D-0L at home, 2W-1D-2L away 2006 semifinal: 3W-0D-0L at home, 3W-0D-0L away 2002 hex: 4W-0D-1L at home, 1W-2D-2L away 2002 semifinal: 3W-0D-0L at home, 1W-1D-1L away 1998 hex: 3W-2D-0L at home, 1W-4D-0L away 1998 semifinal: 3W-0D-0L at home, 1W-0D-2L away Total at home: 32W-2D-1L Total away: 13W-10D-12L Average points at home: 98/35 Average points away: 49/35 Difference: 49/35 So we see that, by far, of the four teams, Honduras has the weakest home-field advantage. Honduras achieved the impressive feat of a winning record away from home in the 2002 hex, but with three home losses in the 2002 hex, failed to qualify for the 2002 World Cup. (Costa Rica had four away wins during their dominant performance in the 2002 hex.) So the notion of Honduras having a weaker home-field advantage is not just based on the USA's two matches against Honduras in the 2002 hex, both of which were won by the away team. In addition to the 2002 hex, Honduras also had a better record away than at home in the 2006 semifinal, and only marginally better records at home than away in the 2014 semifinal and the 1998 semifinal. Tangentially, we see Mexico's huge home-field advantage, earning exactly twice as many points at home as away in CONCACAF WCQ semifinals and finals during the hex era.
Honduras problem is that the crowd will turn against them faster than any other central American team I can think of. I've talked to guys who went to Honduran qualifiers against other teams and if the Honduran team struggles, home field turns hostile fast.
Well, thank god Honduras's home field advantage was so weak. I mean, we could have been in trouble otherwise.