Honestly, I'm the least optimistic about this hex than ever. Every team in the hex is solid and better than last cycle... With the exception of maybe costa rica who are going to still be very challenging on our turf and a nightmare on their turf. I say that the us squeezes by as fourth place on the last game. We are pretty much guaranteed to lose away and we will most likely drop a lot of points at home due to our overconfidence. Remember that this is the cycle that has failed in every regard so far.
It was a bit of a shock for sure. NZ is the better team. Tahiti has been eliminated from WCQ, its just between NZ and New Caledonia now who I've seen play and who have a very athletic team.
I actually think Panama is considerably weaker than last cycle, but Jamaica is going to be stronger and so is Honduras I think. CR I'm still trying to decide on, but I think they're always solid.
I'll also say that Mexico wins every game. 1. Mexico 2. Honduras 3. Costa Rica 4. USA 5. Jamaica 6. Panama USA only beats Jamaica on goal differential by one goal.
I expect nothing less than a 3rd consecutive 1st place finish in the hex, but 17 is the minimum number of points which I would consider as decent.
Oh? I would take the other side of that bet in a second. You're saying that we won't take more than 2 points off of Panama...and likely less than that?
WOW. I'm a little nervous about the hex for sure but this post shows some real pessimism. C'mon now, you really think Mexico will take every single point available on the table? This is CONCACAF...no chance that happens. Also, there is no way we get even close to finishing 5th.
Mexico - 28 points USA - 14 points (with more than our fair share of 0-0 and 1-1 ties) Honduras - 11 points Jamaica - 10 points Costa Rica - 10 points Panama - 9 points [EDIT:] I will say that if we beat Honduras this week, I think we'll end up with 16 points or more. It also may bode really poorly for Honduras. If Mexico get three points down there in March, then Honduras would have to find quite a few points on the road in order to qualify.
Prediction of Final Hex Standings 1) Mexico 2) US 3) Costa Rica 4) Honduras 5) Jamaica 6) Panama *** The question to me is how CR/HON/JAM/PAN play out their games against each other. I see such parity (relatively speaking) that I can see a lot of draws. There are 12 games between my listed bottom four... I would not be surprised with 6 draws out of 12 games and it is those dropped points that will allow the US to advance with possibly less points than normal (as current form is concerning to all).
I have really no idea, how we are going to do in the Hex. We are going to know a lot more Wednesday, after the game. Really, it is one of the key games in the Hex. Regardless, here is my prediction 1. Mexico 2. Costa Rica 3. USA 4. Jamaica 5. Honduras 6. Panama
Mexico finishes #1 and USA finishes #3. No clue where anyone else ends up. IMO It's wide open after Mexico.
A very interesting book http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds Our crowd says: 1) Mexico 2)USA 3) Costa Rica 4) tie Panama and Honduras 6) Jamaica
That's a very conservative and traditionalist set up with Mexico, USA, Costa Rica 1, 2, 3. I honestly think the USA and especially Costa Rica are ripe for the picking this cycle.
There was that one time where we won in Azteca... Look, I share much of the pessimism after the first round of qualifying and our uneven performances this cycle. We are also assuming we will be without our best player as we have been all cycle and that is a big blow for any team. On the other hand, regardless of what people think of our manager and how difficult conditions can be on the road in CONCACAF (and this is not my first rodeo), the bottom line is that we are a far better side than all but Mexico and we have topped CONCACAF qualifying the last two times, moreover the traditional 3rd team most likely to challenge us or Mexico, Costa Rica, looks to have fallen hard imo. So... 1. USA 2. Mexico 3. Jamaica 4. Honduras 5. Costa Rica 6. Panama Mexico needs to take it from us before I will give it to them.
It takes quite the pessimist to predict the US lower than second and a pretty big stretch of reality to predict the US at fourth or lower. Even if you are unconvinced of Klinsmann, on player quality alone, we should be able to bring things home for a second place finish, third at the very worst, first if we get on a roll. I think any reasonable neutral looks at the teams and sees the US as a pretty secure bet for a second place finish. 1. Mexico 2. USA 3. Honduras 4. Costa Rica 5. Jamaica 6. Panama
It will be interesting to see how all these predictions change when/if we lose away to Honduras on Wed.
I've already predicted the US gets between 16-18 points in the Hex, so I'm covered any way you slice it.