Handicapping the 2016 Republican Presidential Candidates

Right-- the perception of his electability was based on a sort of worthiness, competence: "I'm not pretty and I'm not smooth, not Madison Avenue's kind of candidate, but I pay attention to what actually matters and find the answers even if they aren't Republican answers."

Now he's in effect saying: "You know all those times, all those weeks I scoffed and was rude and said there was no story here? Well it turns out I never actually looked into it until today, and those statements are now inoperative."

Suddenly he's just another Nixon/Reagan/Clinton...

 

This bridge stuff is kind of goofy but I don't see how it's such a big deal.

The signing of the DREAM act is still the dagger into the heart of his candidacy. The GOP base has a lot of visceral hatred for immigrants and that's not going to change anytime soon. I doubt he'll win any state outside the northeast, FL, and CA.

 

Christie already didn't have much of a chance in 2016, but he's toast now.

Regardless of how much the scandal hurts him (and I think it'll hurt a lot) the number of rich people stupid enough to think of him as a viable candidate just shrunk to zero.

 

Wasn't the entire theory of Christie's presidential viability based on the fact that he rose above politics and did what was right for New Jersey (by conveniently abandoning Romney's sinking ship and agreeing to accept Obama's federal money)? This story exposes him as the exact opposite, a guy who is more than willing to play petty political games and crap on the people of New Jersey at the same time. And he is running scared. Canceled his only public appearance today so he wouldn't have to come into contact with the press, and then released a statement that is laughably hard to believe. Republican-leaning voters may or may not think this is a big deal, but Christie obviously does.

 

Or possibly because something else like, maybe, figuring out how many of his associates lied to him and why was taking up his time.

The bare facts are bad enough, there's no need to look far the worst interpretation one can put on things...

 

Delusional.

Few on the right are denying that it's a big deal right now. Hell, it's the only thing the media wants to talk about at the moment. Whether it's a big deal 30 months from now is another matter. Luckily for Christie, the fact that it's a big deal right now is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. He'll do damage control and then try to stay out of the spotlight until it blows over. They'll get bored of it, like they tend to do about everything. And actually, it was very poor timing on the leaking of this. If you want to do real damage, you hold onto it. They'll have to dig up better stuff by the time the general election rolls around.

 

You seem a bit unclear on the situation. Let me clue you in on what's probably coming:

1. Everyone who sent, received, was CCd on, or was mentioned in the relevant messages gets thoroughly investigated. Even based on the limited, redacted evidence revealed so far, that's a large group of people. Most of them will probably have to resign or be fired; criminal charges also seem like a possibility for some.

2. Anything else that these bad actors were up to likely gets revealed. Remember, we're talking about people who openly said things like "Time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee," who openly celebrated the fact that children in school buses couldn't make it to school - and who (unbelievably) said these things in easily obtained email and text messages. How likely is it their thuggish behavior was an isolated incident? How likely is it that these morons could successfully cover all the rest of their tracks? Both pretty unlikely, I'd say.

3. In the meantime, nasty stories emerge about the consequences of the deliberate traffic jams for emergency responders, law enforcement, local governments, etc. I imagine that some of these stories will be accompanied by lawsuits.

4. Christie will try to disavow all knowledge and responsibility of these actions - depending on how well his cronies insulated him, he may succeed in doing so, and stay in office (albeit with his image and his authority compromised). But, there's a bunch of other potential unpleasantness surrounding his administration - remember, Romney's vetters already rejected him before any of this bridge stuff happened. He definitely won't be able to easily quash, or credibly deny, any further allegations that spring up over the next couple years.

So, maybe he survives politically and recovers in New Jersey, maybe he doesn't. Either way, the GOP nomination in 2016 is out of the question. Christie is already distrusted by much of the primary electorate - for embracing Obama, for supporting gun control, for being soft on illegal immigrants, for not being from Real America, etc. His only,thin, hope was that he could raise enough money to rise above candidates that represented a divided right wing, similarly to Romney in 2012. That's never going to happen now, because no intelligent donor is going to direct large sums at a candidate who emanates the kind of stench that Christie does.

 

Then how come it took him hours and hours to put out a statement saying he wasn't in the loop? He could have done that immediately. He could have shown up at the event and said it. Put those two things together and it looks a lot like he is in panic mode and trying to figure out how to deal with these allegations.

 

It looks to me as much like maybe he was trying to figure out what else he thought he was in the loop on but wasn't.

If his statement is true, of course he was in panic mode and trying to figure out how to handle the situation-- so would anyone be. From what we know of his character, I doubt that his primary concern was communicating his problem to the press-- if he really was being lied to by many in his administration, he had/has far worse problems than the publicity involved. He can't be sure anything he thinks he knows is right or anything he has initiated is actually happening; he has to figure out the scope and administrative consequences of a completely unexpected betrayal.

Me, I'd be spending several hours on the phone, and avoiding any statements until I was fairly sure I wouldn't have to declare them inoperative as well.

There's the old saw about how if you play four or five hands at a poker table without figuring out who the patsy is, it is probably you? Well, if Christie is telling the truth on this, he just figured out it is him, and not four or five hands in, but forty.

 

Is it really likely that Christie had no idea this was happening and a top aid in his office orchestrated this whole thing? Let's be honest here, the chances of that are zero. This is the behind-the-scenes version of the way he treats people who ask him critical questions at town hall meetings.

 

Well, it's going to depend on what Christie's Teflon Rating is. Some pols seem to get all the breaks, plausibility-wise.

 

I heard on the radio this morning that EMTs were delayed in getting to a woman who later died.

 

Pot. Kettle. Kettle. Pot.

Dont'cha 'member how Perry got kinda booed during the debates when he mentioned a relatively effective, humane Texas education policy regarding immigrant students who continue on to the state university system?

Imagine that. TEXAS policies deemed too liberal!!! And please take my word for this, in the Mexican/ Chicano/ Central American communities, Texas ain't librul.

Just this last year, Tea Party darling Marco Rubio had the audacity to present an immigration plan that ran against the far right's agenda, and he promptly got eviscerated.

The Romneys and party leaders might advocate that we Latino "just get over" our perceptions that we aren't welcome under the GOP tent, but they and you need to get out of your fairy tale, pie in the sky, kumba-mother-fuc*ing-yah hallucination and join the rest of us back down on earth.

If not, you'll follow the GOP's path in California, i.e. irrelevant.

Others have pointed out that the legal ramifications means that this shiznit will stick around b/c of lawsuits.

The main thing I don't think you realize is that this type of behavior crushes his hopes with moderates and "Reagan Democrat" types. That was his main playing card, appealing across the aisle. And now that the media has turned against him, syonara...

 

Can I change my vote?

 

Saw this point on Kevin Drum's blog. When one person emailed "Time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee," the response was NOT "What do you mean" or "What is causing that?" The response was "Got it."

That strongly suggests this ain't the first time something like this happened.

Christie threw a number of his people under the bus today, and any one of them can kill him as a politician if they have some kind of proof Christie was in on it. If all of them stay loyal but one, he's toast.

That's assuming he knew something about it, I know. We;ll see.

 

Wishful thinking.

 

Wow!!!!

 

Ms Kelly and most of them will be subpoenaed by the legislature and even by the Fed. Good luck with that...Lying under oath for Christie? That is an other bridge they will have to cross at their own risk after he threw her (and presumably the others who will follow) under the bus.
In addition, media and other public officials are going to keep looking for dirt and one can be they will find a lot.
I don't see how he will come out of this. He can kiss good bye all his national ambitions and I will not be surprised either if does not finish his term. That is Mc Donnell (Va) in slow motion..... Pass the popcorn!

 

http://www.theonion.com/articles/voters-shocked-christie-botched-such-an-easy-polit,34909/

WASHINGTON—Following revelations this week that staffers under New Jersey Governor Chris Christie manipulated traffic in a small New Jersey town to punish its mayor, mortified Americans across the nation reported that they were shocked to learn the potential 2016 presidential candidate could possibly fumble such an easy political cover-up.

“Man, this guy wants to be President of the United States and he can’t even conceal an act of corruption this rinky-dink and run-of-the-mill from voters? It’s crazy,” Newark resident Carolyn Baum said in agreement with millions of stunned Americans, adding that she holds potential presidential candidates to much higher standards of subterfuge and graft. “I mean, this is a total softball. If he can’t even bully one little small-town mayor into submission by oppressing his constituents and get away with it, how can we reasonably believe he’s politically skilled enough to cover up national scandals like orchestrating a foreign war, illegally colluding with big business, or violating the civil liberties of millions of Americans? It’s a little scary, to be honest.”

At press time, many Americans reported their faith in Christie’s presidential qualifications was somewhat restored after he released a series of statements pinning the blame on others and throwing top aides under the bus.​

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Today we are all Children of Buono voters.

 

A good day for Christie is a quiet day on BS P&CE.

 

indeed I actually gave her $10...but don't tell CC as he might come and burn down my house.
now THIS scenario seems plausible...

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/01/...r-no-there-was-another-target-of-bridge-gate/

 

Someone else made a good point... maybe it was Michael Steele: according to Christie these people cooked up this whole scheme without his knowledge and he didn't find out about it yesterday. Why on Earth would they come up with a payback scheme for rival Democrats and not expect accolades from their boss? It's inconceivable that he wasn't aware of the lane closure either while it was happening or shortly thereafter.