Well, that also depends on the mods (who were terrible in my eyes)... C'mon, don't be bitchy. Btw: Here's the video (10 parts) of the whole 'duel' : [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkLdp0kdu0E"]YouTube - TV-Duell zwischen Angela Merkel und Frank-Walter Steinmeier (Teil 1 von 10)[/ame]
Ok, so the last polls are coming in...there will be no more polls during the last days before the election. Here are the last numbers from Infratest dimap: CDU/CSU: 35% SPD: 26% FDP: 14% Linke: 11% Greens: 10% CDU/CSU/FDP would still have a majority in parliament, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if another CDU/CSU/SPD coalition would be the only option. On the other hand, CDU/CSU/FDP might not be very popular, but it's still ahead of all the other options when people were asked about their preferences (good/not good) CDU/CSU/FDP (48/50) CDU/CSU/SPD (45/53) CDU/CSU/FDP/Greens (29/69) SPD/FDP/Greens (27/70) SPD/Greens/Linke (23/74)
Since this doesn't take Überhangmandate into account it's pretty mood to compare it like this now. More interesting is the SPD and Steinmeier gaining major points towards the Union at the moment.
OT: Okay, I consider my English to be pretty good, but I don't know this one, and a quick search of the web hasn't showed anything: What does 'to get on top of something' mean in this context? To understand it? To be the most important figure in it?
to be 'across it' to have it under control Basically to have a working knowledge au fait would be the french i think
Yeah I don't speak French ;-) But thanks. How long have you been in Hamburg? I don't think it's that complicated, apart from the voting system (but then again I grew up there and had good teachers when it came to politics). Feel free to ask any questions or opinions, of course.
I am just really unfamiliar with the personalities and the politics of the parties I have been in Hamburg since mid 2005 I am used to the english (and NZ) 2 party system Tories and Labour!
According to "Emnid", it looks this way: CDU/CSU: 35% SPD: 25% FDP: 13% Linke: 12% Greens: 11% This would mean that it's 48 % / 48 % at the moment (for the first time). However, I personally don't pay that much attention to polls ... as they have rarely been correct during the last decade. Apparently, 1/3 of the voters are still undecided ... so a lot can still happen until 27 September (although the so-called "Überhangmandate" are surely an advantage for CDU/CSU).
I'm not bitchy, just don't want to get used to "it could have been worse" becoming the gold standard of politics.
Well, you do have the greens and the liberals in the UK as well. Just split Labour's left wing from the main party, there you have die Linke. The main difference is that the smaller parties are also in the parliament, because of the (quite complicated, compared to the English model) system of election. This means that it's important to form coalition governments (but someone who'd try to influence labour or the torries into new directions in the UK would maybe have a better shot at starting a new party in Germany, so the difference between the parties are not neccessary as big as in the UK system). (this is all simplifying of course, but it should be at least remotely accurent) Bios of the persona should be on wikipedia, important in German politics are (I think CDU/CSU: Angela Merkel Karl Theodor zu Guttenberg Wolfgang Schäuble Ursula von der Leyen Horst (?) Seehofer Horst Köhler SPD: Frank-Walter Steinmeier Franz Müntefering Sigmar Gabriel die Grüne: Jürgen Trittin Claudia Roth Cem Özdemir FDP: Guido Westerwelle die Linke: Oskar Lafontaine Gregor Gysi Other parties of interest could be NPD, DVU, Freie Wähler and Piratenpartei, but none of them have a realistic chance of entering the Bundestag next week.
On top of what 96squig said, here are the basic rules for the election: Every party that gets 5% or more of the popular vote gets seated in parliament. The number of seats they get is proportional to the number of votes they get. In order to form a government, you need 50%+1 of the parliament. To make it a little more complicated, there's also something called "overhang", which can change the number of seats a party gets in parliament. I've explained that in detail early on in this thread, so if you're interested, you might want to check it out. Usually, overhang doesn't make much of a difference, but this year it could be different. As squig said, we have a 5 party system right now, i.e. 5 parties that in all likelihood will get 5% or more of the popular vote. Germany used to have a 3 party system for the most part of its history: The conservatives (CDU/CSU), the social democrats (SPD) and the liberals (FDP). Since usually neither CDU/CSU nor SPD got a majority on their own, it was the FDP who decided which party would get to govern, because they were needed for a coalition. In the mid 1980s, the Greens became more important and have become the 4th party. After an initial period where nobody wanted to work with them, they became a left-wing alternative to the FDP. The consequence was that from then on, the FDP was tied to the CDU/CSU while the Greens were tied to the SPD. So people could choose between a right government (CDU/CSU/FDP) or a left government (SPD/Greens). But that also changed in 2005, when the 5th party, the "Linkspartei" or "Linke" became so strong that neither CDU/CSU/FDP nor SPD/Greens had a majority. The Linke is a basically remnant of the SED, the former socialist ruling party of East Germany. They have had some influx from the West as well since then, but they're still on the very far left of the political spectrum. Here is where it got complicated (and still is), because the FDP refuses to form a coalition with SPD and Greens, while the Greens refuse to form a coalition with CDU/CSU and FDP. At the same time, Greens and SPD refuse to work with the Linke. So the only possible coalition was the so called "Grand Coalition" between CDU/CSU and SPD. The same limitations still apply today. So right now, there are two possibilities as for how it will turn out: According to the polls, CDU/CSU and FDP might get a majority in parliament, but it's extremely close. If they don't make it, the only other option will be another Grand Coalition.
Only for roughly 20 years actually - until 1961 there always had been more than 3 fractions in the parliament, and again since 1983 there never have been less than 4. From 1965 until the Greens turned up minor parties almost dissapeared for 15 years, though - except for the short but significant high of the NPD in the late 60s (getting 4,3% in the 1969 election).
Well yeah, the early years of the FRG were somewhat confusing. But you can look at it this way: The FVP eventually merged with the DP and all the important members of the DP switched to the CDU later on. So in a sense they were precursors to the CDU of today. Which leaves the BHE, which barely got into parliament once in 1953 and I would think that their voters went on to vote for the CDU as well...I mean the associations of the refugees from east Prussia have been very close to the CDU ever since. So all the additional parties in the parliament prior to 1961 have basically been absorbed by the CDU, one way or another.
Well, there was the DKP (5,7% in 1949 - however, from 1951 on they were basically excluded from politics (although they ran again in 1953), before being officially banned in 1956). The BP, the DRP, the WAV, Zentrum, and the NPD were all very strong regionally at one point (and all, except for the NPD got into the Bundestag at least once). Both the DP and the BHE split into two basically, with some joining the CDU, some staying independent - the latter had the problem that once the refugee situation was more or less solved their voters went to the major parties, the former became best buddies with the NPD and still exists as a minor ultra right wing party, working together with NPD and DVU. However - most importantly, you should look at the total numbers of all minor parties (everyone except CDU/CSU, SPD and FDP). In 1949 they got 27,9%, and even in 1957 still over 10% - that's quite a big number of people voting still. I don't think Germany became truely a 3 party state until 1972 - before there still were other parties who could at least have reasonable hopes to get more than 5%. Than, for ten years, there really was no 4th party in sight, until the Greens came.
Bah, if it's done it should be done right . Btw, I meant KPD instead of DKP (which was founded in the 1960s as a successor) of course. Too late to get all acronyms right.
No (it's debatable who should be in this list or not, I tried to keep it shorter... otherwise we could also include all the Ministerpräsidenten... Btw, this is how Germans under 18 voted (doesn't count, of course):
No problem! Btw, Pirates for the first time above 3% according to Forsa: http://www.bei-der-wahl-am.de/bundestagswahl-aktuelle-umfrage-prognose/
4,2% for the NPD, btw - 13% in Saxony. That poll you linked to was done by whoever runs that website, though, based on "a complex formula".
the truth is in fact much simpler than that. BW and Bavaria were the American zone, the Americans were handing out the Marshall plan money, and consequently the majority of it ended up in their zone. the British and French simply couldn't support their zones in the same way the Americans could. you see the result today. of course the other zones also got Marshall money, but there was a heavy bias towards the American zone. that's just nonsense. first, neither Saxony nor Thuringia are miles ahead of the other Eastern states, that's simply not true. what you have are a few relatively prosperous cities, i.e. Dresden, Leipzig, Jena etc, and that's pretty much it. the rural rest of those states is not in any better state than their by nature more rural neighbours. what you also conveniently forget is that the first few years after the unification Brandenburg was the only SPD-governed East German state, the rest were all run by the CDU. if they are so clever, why did they screw it up right at start? there wouldn't be any need for anyone to vote left now, would there?