German Federal election 2013

Discussion in 'Elections' started by White/Blue_since1860, Jan 13, 2013.

  1. White/Blue_since1860

    White/Blue_since1860 Member+

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    Federal Elections for the 18th Bundestag: held between 1st Sept and 27th Oct 2013:
    [​IMG]

    Major participating parties:
    [​IMG]

    Battle for chancellery:
    Angela Merkel(Christian-Democrat) vs Peer Steinbrück(Social-Democrat):
    [​IMG]

    Federal election poll time-line:
    [​IMG]

    Most likely government coalition options:

    CDU/CSU -- FDP (conservative-liberal, "black-yellow") = 41 + 0 (5% election threshold)
    --> no majority
    SPD -- Grüne (social-democrats-green, "red-green")= 28 + 14= 42%
    --> no majority
    CDU/CSU -- SPD (conservative-social-dem., "black-red", "grand coalition")= 41+28= 69%
    --> majority

    Germany moves into election campaign mode as national polls are scheduled for late 2013. The Euro crisis, the crisis on the financial markets, unrest in the Arab world, the energy turnaround, right-wing extremism - these issues are bound to remain. If the Germans lose their faith in Angela Merkel's skills as "savior of the euro," a third term in office might be put in seriously jeopardy. That could have a major impact on Europe's future debt solving policies.


  2. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    CDU/CSU -- SPD

    Is the current coalition right?
  3. White/Blue_since1860

    White/Blue_since1860 Member+

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    [​IMG]
    Nope. It is CDU/CSU -- FDP(here blue and yellow). And all the polls say we're not going to see it again. Primarily cause Merkel's coalition partner FDP is in a shambles.

    But before the current administration we had this so called "grand coalition" from 2005-2009.
  4. White/Blue_since1860

    White/Blue_since1860 Member+

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    2012 GDP Figures Released
    German Budget Back in Surplus Despite Slowdown

    http://www.spiegel.de/international...lus-in-2012-despite-slow-growth-a-877563.html

    In times of fiscal cliff and Euro crisis, Germany remains an island of happiness. Right at a moment Angela Merkel is facing a tough election campaign trouble later this year.


  5. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    Hey I hear Poland and some of the Baltic nations are also doing well, so not really an Island, just the biggest one.
  6. White/Blue_since1860

    White/Blue_since1860 Member+

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    Right. I just quoted the article.

    Maybe there is a misconception in the public of what is the Euro-zone and what is the EU.

    There are of course a lot other countries in the EU that do well, but within the Euro-zone there are only few. Poland is not member of the Euro, of the Baltic states only Estonia is. Others are maybe Austria and the Netherlands or Luxemburg, but their share to the Euro and the EU is comparably small.

    Another indicator is that, for the first time in 8 years, Germany's population grew back up to 82 mil. in 2012 due to higher immigration of South Europeans.
  7. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

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    Half correct. Poland and Estonia are doing well. Latvia and Lithuania suck wind. Lithuania in particular is a basket case. The country has lost 20% of its population to emigration since it became independent, and it's largely the best people -- recent college grads. No jobs and no signs of change.
  8. White/Blue_since1860

    White/Blue_since1860 Member+

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    At least do the good economic figures make a major contribution to Angie approval ratings. The crisis hasnt really reached Germany yet. Was fun to hear it(romneybot) talking about the sclerotic economies in Europe while the biggest of them just had reached full employment.

    Possibly this will change once exports to other euro and eu member continue to fall. But, Im afraid, it will be too late.
  9. White/Blue_since1860

    White/Blue_since1860 Member+

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  10. White/Blue_since1860

    White/Blue_since1860 Member+

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    CDU Loses Lower Saxony: State Defeat Heralds Tough Re-Election Fight for Merkel

    http://www.spiegel.de/international...etback-in-sunday-state-election-a-878719.html
    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/22/world/europe/center-left-defeats-merkels-party-in-state-vote.html

    [​IMG][​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Yesterday, Merkel's CDU lost the key state election of Lower Saxony by the margin of only one seat. Problem for her now is the majority in the second chamber of legislation, the Bundesrat, is now held by the opposition. Any kind of bill could be blockaded. It is also likely the Bunderat will start by himself bill initiatives.
  11. Borussia

    Borussia Member

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    The paradox thing is that she still benefits from the reforms implemented by her forerunner Schröder. Her losing federal state by state (the former ultra-conservative Bavaria to follow soon) just shows what chaotic coalition she is leading...

    She might be popular among most Germans (yes, she's really the saviour of the Euro lol) ... but this doesn't mean that her current coalition will automatically reach a majority next autumn. Her only chance to stay chancellor is hoping that SPD & the Green Party continue to rule out a coalition with the far-lefts from "Die Linke", that her current coalition partner FDP won't join a "traffic light" coalition (what I don't expect, anyway) or that the Green Party is willing to form a coalition with her concervatives from the CDU (which I don't see happening either).

    She very likely won't be able to continue the current coalition in autumn. The question is whether the center-left SPD will be helping her out once again by forming another Grand Coalition. I hope that the Social Democrats are smart enough not to do this (for many reasons).


    So all those flaoting votes from her own party voters for the coalition partner FDP (that wouldn't have passed the 5% hurdle without them) have been for nothing. Pity. :p




    Bonne nuit.
  12. American Brummie

    American Brummie Member+

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    Gonna be *that guy* who doesn't give a crap about domestic politics, but is there ANY discussion on the winner advancing some sort of Mideast peace plan, Iran strategy, or shakeup of NATO/the UN?
  13. Borussia

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    Shakeup of NATO/UN? Well, the far-leftists from "Die Linke" would like to see Germany leaving the NATO ... their stubbornness concerning foreign politics issues is the main reason why the center-left from SPD & Green Party isn't willing to form a coalition with them. There will be no real change in Germany's foreign policy under a new chancellor (the current Iran strategy won't change) ... except for the fact that the pressure on Netanjahu might increase within the EU if Angela Merkel is gone.

    Btw: When it comes to (finally) advancing a successful Mideast peace plan, Barack Obama is the only person outside Israel that should have a real chance of promoting it. The EU might be able to increase the pressure on Israel & Hamas, but can't force them to negotiate.
  14. American Brummie

    American Brummie Member+

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    Wow. That's even worse than I imagined. It's a conservative bunch coming out of there except for Die Linke, huh.
  15. White/Blue_since1860

    White/Blue_since1860 Member+

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    Nope. Not really.... I fear. No big difference if the chancellors name is Merkel or whatever.

    Due to history, these issues are minefields you'd as a genuine politician better say nothing about. Apart from the usual platitudes of "Germany in the name of the EU should take a leading role solving the two-state solution, we have the history that shows that we can". But dont expect anything to happen. E.g.we only help financially in Mali. Iran is no issue in the media at all but maybe in political cabaret.



    Germany is principally involved in the Euro crisis.
  16. White/Blue_since1860

    White/Blue_since1860 Member+

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  17. White/Blue_since1860

    White/Blue_since1860 Member+

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    Fear of Contagion: Merkel Steps Back from Coalition Partner FDP
    [​IMG]
    Following her party's failure in a major state election, Chancellor Angela Merkel is distancing herself from her junior coalition partner, the business-friendly Free Democrats. It is a risky move, and could indicate that she is aiming at a partnership with the opposition Social Democrats.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international...p-after-key-state-election-loss-a-880811.html

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