Garber: MLS has a Harvard Business School plan for MLS to be 1 of the top soccer leagues by 2022

okay. take a breath. i was only using playoffs as an example, one of many things that MLS does that are different from much of the rest of the soccer world.

and again. you are missing the point. let me use a metaphor.

say you love pie ... you think it is tasty and you eat various kinds with relish and glee. now i have a new type of pie that i want you to like. if i shape my pie to like like a dog turd that might be a barrier to you wanting to try it ... even if it tastes good ... because you are used to pies that are round shaped. some with cross hatched tops, some without tops, maybe even the occasional rectangular pie ... so if i can make my pie look like what you are used to you might give it a try and like it. now you don't like those other pies because they are round ... but you very well could discount my pie entirely because it isn't the round shape you are used to (or worse it has a very unappealing shape like say a penis).

okay. we good. you get my very simple point? probably not.

i am not saying that the quality of play (the taste of the pie) isn't the first and foremost important thing in attracting and keeping fans ... it is ... that is just obvious ... i am saying that the league needs to ALSO make sure they aren't intentionally or unintentionally putting up barriers to people wanting to try MLS thus rendering the quality of play meaningless because they have discounted the league out of hand due to unfamiliarity or discomforture (ie they won't ever know how tasty the pie is because it is shaped like a giant turd that has turned them off from even trying it).

 

$30 million is generally the figure thrown around for current TV revenue ($10 from NBC, $8 from ESPN, $8 from Univision, +Canada).

Fox reportedly offered somewhat more than NBC in the most recent negotiations for the secondary rights (MLS went with NBC because they had more TV homes). If there are media conglomerates willing to spend $12-15 million on secondary English rights, I would imagine the league will be looking at $40-50 million minimum from all sources in 2015 and beyond. $100 million certainly isn't out of play, but it depends on ratings leading up the world cup. If ratings show steady growth on NBCSN, the next contracts could be huge.

 

Where are you getting 100% growth?

MLS has $27m alone in US rights and probably another 4-5M in international rights (with a large chunk coming from TSN).

So if MLS grows from ~$32m a year to ~$40m a year it is a very small growth in today's rights markets especially when you consider MLS signed the ESPN and Univision deals 8 years ago (from when the new deal kicks in).

 

Problem is that a lot of folks who say they watch Euro leagues for Quality of Play actually mean they watch Barcelona, ManU, Bayern, etc., but wouldn't dream of watching a game between two bottom-of-the-table teams from those leagues. And MLS has to have a business plan to make sure its bottom-of-the-table teams are either profitable or close to it.

 

i thought somebody put 10M + 8M as the current rights ... about 20M ... that is where i got 40M being a 100% increase.

did i read that wrong?

but if the current rights are totaling over 30M per year than yeah ... 40 would be disappointing ... sorry if i got the current total wrong.

if the current rights total 30M a year i'd definitely think MLS is shooting for 100% growth at a minimum ... to over 60M.

 

I get your point. I've never been confused by your point. Let me make my point a little more clear for you.

YOU'RE WRONG.

 

I think $60 would be a real sweet spot.

Also as you have correctly pointed out before, ratings are just one component of how they will calculate the fee. MLS is going to benefit from both NBCSN and Fox Sports 1 (or what ever they call it), needing programming and those type stations have to pay a bit of a premium to get the content.

Good ratings will obviously help.

 

get back to me when you have a degree in psychology and know something about human perception ... then we can talk.

 

Yeah you read it wrong, you may have missed the Univision and International numbers

ESPN 8
NBC 10
Univision 8-9
International ? (Maybe 4-5 total world wide, with the majority from Canada).

 

I'm not disagreeing with you. But that doesn't change things. As quality of play improves, more and more people will watch.

That is the single solitary lone barrier preventing soccer fans who ignore MLS from actually tuning in.

Thats it. Its not a lack of pro/rel. Its not because of the draft. Its not because of playoffs. If the games are entertaining to watch, soccer fans will tune in.

 

Get back to me when you've seen tens of thousands of responses to surveys from soccer fans who don't watch MLS.

I don't need a degree in psychology. I actually know the truth. You are wrong.

 

i get you don't understand human perception but making claims about it is just foolish.

there is a reason fast food chains don't make their hamburgers triangular, there is a reason dish washing detergent is ash-sludge grey or diarrhea brown. people have a set of paradigms and expectations to their perceptions in all sorts of areas ... most important in consuming products.

no matter how tasty the triangular burger was or how well the odd coloured dishwashing detergent was people's perception of it would be that it is off somehow and it would be a BARRIER to their accepting the truth of how quality the product was.

there is plenty of research that shows if you make lemon jello red people will swear it is strawberry or cherry flavoured. if you make brownies shaped like poo people won't eat it ... if you give people lemonade in a urine flask they won't try it. humans have very weird brains and their perceptions are often effected by even the most seemingly superficial things. especially in consuming products.

MLS and soccer are not immune from this. MLS is a product in a world where there are already many soccer products. and the quality of play is the tastiness or washing ability of the product but just like every other product people who consume them have preconceived paradigms for that product class and when your product radically deviates from those norms you put up perception barriers to new consumers adopting it. it is why MLS got rid of the counting down clock and the shootout and playing in NFL stadiums.

today's MLS has gotten rid of many of the perception paradigm barriers but not all of them. and the fan base they have yet to tap are already soccer fans, they already like the product but they have certain expectations and paradigms for the soccer product and if MLS deviates from that they are making EXTRA work for themselves in attracting those fans above and beyond needing to actually have a quality product that will be the foundational thing on which people will accept or reject their product.

now this doesn't mean for every single person ... some people aren't a susceptible to these perception things ... but for large numbers of people this is the truth. and of course the problem is that in soccer there is more than one "paradigm" which different fans are used to (Euro, Mex, SA, etc) so trying to position your soccer product as familiar to most or all of them can take some doing.

nobody is arguing that the quality of the play in the league isn't the primary part of the MLS product ... and the better it is the better the league's product is (ie the better it tastes, the better it cleans). but to completely ignore the way human perception works and decades of research into product/consumer psychology and to ignore the fact that sometimes superficial perception barriers exist in the adoption of products is just foolish and wrong. even if a person doesn't respond to such on a survey their perception/expectation biases are not conscious to them but no less real for it.

and this isn't an either or thing ... so it isn't like making the MLS more familiar a product to soccer fans means they can't also work on making the quality of play better. it is a false dichotomy you've set up. there is no harm in MLS trying to appeal to SFWDLMLSY in more than one way ... both on the basic quality of play level and on the removing perception/expectation barriers level as well.

 

FYP.

You're wrong. Insanely wrong. You will never be right on this subject. Never. I'm done with you.

Its absolutely laughable that you criticize me for ignoring decades of research on consumer perception but are so quick to completely ignore research done by MLS and other sources with regards to why soccer fans in this country ignore MLS.

This is a quick summary of our conversation.

You: Look at consumer based research.

Me: I have, extensively, this is what it says.

You: Well that doesn't count because its different than what I'm assuming based on nothing but my opinion and what my Psych 101 professor taught me.

 

Based on this argument, playoffs is actually the best competition format because the largest percentage of soccer fans that don't watch MLS are Hispanic fans, who by and large follow leagues that determine their champion via a playoff.

Your entire "perception barrier" argument is based on the premise that there is only one accepted way that a soccer league is set up around the world.

There are several different competition formats all over the world. Some leagues have triangular hamburger patties. Some are square. Some are round.

That's what your big overanalyzing brain can't seem to wrap itself around.

There is no singularly accepted format that MLS is straying from. And quite frankly if they are trying to appeal to the largest group of fans that don't pay attention to MLS, the current format is closest to what those fans are used to.

I realize that in your world you have never been wrong. I realize that you aren't going actually be able to comprehend anything I've just written. But trust me. I've seen the market research.

YOU ARE WRONG.

 

Except there aren't that many things on the field/with the competition that MLS does different from much of the rest of the soccer world.

Playoffs? - Used all over the Western Hemisphere and beyond
Unbalanced schedule? - Used in Scotland, Colombia, Mexico until recently, etc.
Divisions - Used in Mexico until recently

Yeah, the business side is completely Americanized, but on the field, the game itself? Removed all the Americanization years ago. Anyone who still claims they aren't following the league because of "playoffs" or "format" or "too different from world soccer" is lying, either to you or to themselves.

 

Does $60 get MLS to a top 10 league? That would increase revenue by about $1.5 million per team.

Maybe the 10 (8) year plan includes two round of rights negotiations. One that nets $60, and one closer to 2022 brings in closer to $100 million.

 

I haven't been reading this argument above, but did someone just compare MLS to a poo-shaped brownie?

 

The problem is that people tend to have a very narrow definition of what makes up world soccer. There's a whole host of leagues that use playoffs, but not one of them is in western Europe. Mexico just happens to be the largest of those leagues. In reality, MLS falls somewhere in between the European formats and the Latin American formats. One season, but with playoffs. And as the league grows, the schedule will get more balanced. Do the math on the current format, but with 24 teams.

The league that MLS most resembles? Australia. Or, more accurately, Australia most resembles MLS, since MLS is a decade older.

 

Sorry - looks like someone on my ignore list has hijacked the thread. It's the sound of one hand clapping.

 

I don't know exactly how big I would guess the upcoming contract would be, I only know that it's become a seller's market. Because of the entrance of the NBC Sports Net and the upcoming Fox Sports 1, there's more bandwidth than there is content.

I also think it's a very safe assumption that the league has talked extensively with its TV partners, knows that they expect and knows how they read the demographics and the future. So if there's a plan to grow significantly, I think the league is on pretty solid ground in terms of being able to figure out where precisely the TV networks fit in to that. We don't know where that is, but I'm betting the league does. They're not likely to get many rude awakenings.

I'm expecting the best rom-Zom-com since Shaun of the Dead. Maybe since Army of Darkness.

 

Wasn't there a re-negotiation already? meaning 2 - 4-year deals.

 

Based on what the NHL gets for their ratings, and their 200 million (Excludes Canada) per year deal with NBC, I would be very pleasantly surprised if MLS gets anything above 60 Million.

 

Not that I am aware of. I posted the links earlier of the 8 year deals at the stated contract price in this thread.

The recent press releases of the NBC deal (also see those links in this thread) just talks about the original 8 year deals.

Wiki gives a basic summary

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Soccer_on_television

 

Wait, let's not get crazy here...

 

The NHL deal is likely undervalued at this point. They could easily get more than $200 million a year right now.