When was the last time there wasn't a huge surprise team in the semi-finals? In '10 it was Uruguay, in '06 it was Portugal (and France for those who watched them in group play), in '02 it Turkey and S. Korea, in '98 it was Croatia, in '94 it was Bulgaria, in '90 it was England, Belgium in '86, Poland in '82. You'd have to go all the way back to '78, and the nefarious Cup in Argentina, to find one where there were no huge upsets. So although most of us seem to be picking pretty predictable final four groupings, what might be the surprise team that could make it? That has the talent to do it? That has the path to favor them? Originally I had the grouping of Belgium, Chile, Colombia, and maybe Ghana as capable of doing that. Chile would have to avoid Brazil and still play lights out, and Colombia has no Falcao, so my guesses would be Belgium or Ghana, but one of the four would be mine (I'd add France, but I don't think France can qualify since they always have the talent for it).
In 2010, you guys ended 15th, by losing in second round (for 16 teams), otherwise known as "Eighth-finals" , (not in quarterfinals, for last 8 teams), and also by the fact you guys had 4 pts. at group phase and more scored goals with the same GD as whom ended 16th, which was Slovakia (Mexico also had 4 pts. in group phase, but they ended with better GD than both other teams). In the case of Japan, they had a draw against Paraguay, and by doing so they got one more point in relation to whom ended as 10th in the tournament, as like Japan, that other team also ended group phase with 6 pts, only that they lost to Brazil , at "eighth-finals" or second round. The shoot-outs in knock-outs, doesn't decide who wins or who loses the match. If required, it is because the match ended in a draw. And it decides, whom goes through, or whom ends at a higher position.
I agree that there has almost always been a surprise team making the last 4, although Portugal in 2006 (finalist in Euro 2004 with Figo and Ronaldo and Deco) weren't too much of a surprise in my book. When there is a real surprise team, it is because of a combination at least 2 of the following 3 things factors: (1) luck of the draw, (2) luck in the opponents faced in the knock out rounds etc, and (3) outstanding individual talent surpassing the team's overall rank and pedigree. In Wc98, Croatia advanced (and not in very stellar fashion, struggling mightily to beat Japan) from a group with debutants Japan and Jamaica in 1998. It got helped by a red card in the Germany game. And it rode on the back of a superb World Cup by Suker. On the whole, Croatia weren't that good even in 1998 and got many of their results playing a counterattacking style. In World Cup 2002, S.Korea did very well as hosts and was certainly a surprise, but certainly the fact that they beat 9 man Portugal (deservedly but still), 10 man Italy (amidst controversy) and then Spain (on penalties with 2 legit Spanish goals disallowed), before losing to Germany and Turkey, does put an asterick around their surprise run even if not around their strong performance. Turkey, on the other hand, benefitted from having China and Costa Rica in their group and advanced all the way to the semis without having to face anyone with any pedigree (hosts Japan and then Senegal in the quarterfinal). I personally don't think WC06 had a major surprise semifinalist. France and Portugal could have been considered possible contenders to make it at least to the semis even if France had been entirely lackluster in the group stage and Portugal had bombed World Cup 2002. In 2010, Uruguay were the surprise team in my book. In the case of Uruguay, they advanced from a group that wasn't easy but was strange! A group were the hosts failed to advance, where France flopped badly. But from then on, what did Uruguay really achieve? They beat S.Korea in extra time. S.Korea were legitimately 1 of the 2 best AFC teams in 2010, but still that is no accomplishment in my book. They beat Ghana (many would say undeservedly) on penalties, after Ghana had failed to win when a deliberate handball denied them a winning goal and after they missed the ensuing penalty. Not terribly impressive. They then lost to Holland and Germany. Throughout, of course, they rode on the backs of a superbly talented player, namely Forlan. My point is that if there is a real surprise team, that team will need the benefit of luck (luck of the draw and luck during the games) and will likely need some brilliant individual talent. Whoever that team might be, ultimately I am not one to then consider their tournament ranking as the true statement of how they rate in football. I rate teams on their overall results in senior matches, not just their tournament standings.
Both England in 1990 and Portugal in 2006, had better then 20/1 odds to win it all, so certainly the semis could not be considered a suprise. I do agree with your point though that nothing ever goes exactly how most people in vision it.
I'm reaching a bit on both I'd agree, what with Portugal having nearly grabbed Euro '04, and England being England, but in watching that Doc about the team, I was reminded of how down on England the entire public was, and how miserable the performance at Euro '88 was (and Euro '92 and World Cup '94 for that matter). England's odds were probably impacted by casinos wanting to balance English betting habits (their odds always seem to be out of wack). I don't think anyone expected much of a team that stunk out loud at Euro '88 and looked like garbage in the run up to the cup. Their '92, and '94 failures would underline it. But I needed some team, and it worked, until '78, there was always a squad that wasn't really expected to be there, generally at all.
good observation about the surprise semi finalists. That is why every WC I laugh when I see people's predictions that basically follow a FIFA ranking with no upsets whatsoever. Granted it is really hard to factor these kind of things into a prediction because it may be hard to see which top side's weaknesses will be exploited. As far as who has the talent to make a surprise semi-final run. There could be quite a few squads. Chile, Colombia, Uruguay could all do it especially being on their home continent. Due to the draw I'll have to eliminate Chile. I don't even see them passing the first round, and if they somehow mange to do so, they will likely come up against Brazil who has absolutely owned them every time they have met, and I see that continuing. Colombia sans Falcao I still expect to top their group, although Japan and CIV, even Greece will all be tricky opponents for different reasons. Uruguay will likely go as far as Suarez will carry them, they are not as complete a side as Colombia. So If I were to bet on a surprise semi finalist from Conembol, it will be Colombia. In Europe I would say it would be Belgium. They have a very deep squad with top talent and have a very modest group, the only problem, is that the will likely have to get past either Portugal or Ghana in the second round, both teams with immense talent and WC knockout round experience, and it may just be a bridge to far for the debutants, who have come up short AT HOME against the quality squads they have faced recently in friendlies. Still they would be a good bet. After Belgium I don't really see any surprise semi finalists from UEFA. I don't think Portugal or France could really be considered surprise any more, they have the talent to do it if they get their acts together and it wouldn't be a surprise really. From CAF I think both Ghana and Nigeria have what it takes to make a surprise run. Nigeria has the confidence of being AFrican champs, they have a good thing going right now, especially if the gains of the past 2 years are consolidated with much needed reinforcements of some of the top Nigerian talent around Europe. The group is there for the taking, with the perfect schedule for advancement, Iran first, Bosnia next, Argentina last. If they progress the worst second round opponent they could get would be France, a strong yet very beatable team. Last time the two teams played Nigeria won 1-0 in France in a friendly. If you get to the quarters, well anything can happen from there. Ghana I would say have their chances hampered by the draw, but should they make it out, that could be enough momentum to see them go deep into the tournament. They have a very deep bench in terms of midfield options, and their attacking options are much better than either the 2006 or 2010 editions. This team has a lot of tournament experience going back to the U20 WC they won and the 2 WC runs in 2006 and 2010. I would not count them out on going one further this year. From Asia Japan are the best side by far but I don't see them going to the semis. They are perhaps one of the most attractive sides in the world, but they give up goals way too easily and mentally just crumble even if they are playing the other team off the park. e.g.. Italy at the confederations cup. This sadly is not the kind of team that will make a deep run at a WC, more likely they will highly impress in one or two of their games, possibly without even getting the necessary results. Either way I see no better than the second round for Japan. From Concacaf I see no surprise semi finalist. Mexico is a mess but seemingly on the upward currently, however will it be enough to do better than their usual second round appearance. Probably not. They might not even make the second round, I don't think they are assured that at all with both Cameroon and Croatia to give them very good tests, and if they do reach their yearly summit the second round, an exit at the hands of Spain, Holland, or Chile is the very likely outcome. I will say that Mexico's best chance would be against Chile, I do not see them beatiing Spain or Holland in a million years. The US, doubt it. They have to be the least favoured team to make it out of the group of death. While this edition of the US team has a higher quality of bench options, I just do not see the actual starting 11 as being any better than other editions with the fading of LD, Dempsey, and a defence that has a lot of questions to be asked of it, I don't see it as likely that the US progress from this group let alone make a deep run.
nice analysis however you act like it is only "surprise" teams that benefit from luck, bad calls, and "easy" opponents in the knockout rounds. This simply isn't the fact. Holland for example in 2010 an average 1st round group, not tough or weak, but average and I would say closer to the weak side than tough. Second round opponent is Slovakia = come on Quarter Finals they were being totally outplayed by Brazil, until Melo had a moment of madness and red carded himself, and the dutch win. Semi Finals vs Uruguay a team you said was not that impressive in their semi final run, and certainly not one of the favourites or well established powers. I just want to point out that the "better" teams also benefit from playing "weak" teams luck, bad calls etc.
That's why paying attention to the Path of teams is important and one of the interesting aspects of this group. Groups A and B hold 4 of the best 8-10 teams in the world, so if you're in A or B, you're in major trouble in terms of path. There are a couple of paths that tell you where the relative ease to Final Four might occur: Whomever wins G has clear sailing. In that group you have the winner of E, the one group in the tournament that has no team that would rank in anybody's top 10 based on how they're playing. The Swiss or French? Germany would laugh at that kind of difficulty in scale and there's nothing to trip up in the R16 because you're getting Russia, S. Korea, or Algeria, none of whom are playing all that brilliantly. So it's hard to imagine any upset coming from that corner of the bracket. So w/that, half the bracket is already taken and its basically upset free, the A/B pairing seems a leadpipe cinch to lock in a power side, Brazil, Spain, Netherlands, or Chile (the latter would be an upset, but everyone likes them as a side). While whomever wins G, and its assumed it's Germany, should coast to the semi's (I will grant that France could knock off any team from G on their day, other than Germany, but like the rest of us, I presume that Germany is a lock to win the group). Once you take a look at the other side of the bracket it becomes clear. On side of it you see Argentina sitting there as a power and force that would be difficult to knock off, with only Belgium and whomever takes 2nd in G presenting a threat, and 2nd in G could house two upset sides, Ghana or USA, but I don't see either of them beating Argentina. On the other side you have the towering victor from B, with the D winner (I have Italy). So where is the opportunity for an upset? Looking at the bracket the only side of it which seems to house teams that might be capable of taking down a power and making a somewhat shock appearance is the side featuring the H and F winners. Belgium presents a real threat if its on its game, healthy and not afraid. The runner up in H should be a damn fine team as well, so Argentina's path could easily require them to take down one of the best looking sides in Europe, and a grinder in Portugal, or a flagship side from Africa, or a US side that is hard to figure at this point. So if I had to throw money down on an upset side making the finals, I'd have to go with Belgium, or Ghana or Portugal (with Portugal not being much of an upset admittedly). No other corner of the bracket seems to favor surprise teams. I did consider Colombia a possibility as this isn't a truly great Brazilian team, but with Falcao out (or not himself), I think that's a bridge too far.
Germany would not laugh at the french. The french would cause them great difficulty and could beat Germany. They did in a friendly coming from behind and that game was no friendly. Russia could top their group also I wouldnt assume Belgium will although that is a strong possibility. In Capello the Russian's have a master tactician and are a very dangerous team as we saw by them topping their group ahead of the Portuguese. Good write up though and you make very good points.
I agree with you in this post. That is the reason I feel that despite the fact that historically you usually get a surprise team in the semifinal, there is a good chance that this time around we will see all the top favorites finish among the last 4. Of course, there is a chance that things turn out very differently. We could have one of the teams that are often mentioned as possible surprise teams, e.g. Belgium or Chile or Colombia, make it to the semis. For Chile to go that far, IMO they will need to win their group to avoid Brazil (assuming Brazil win their group). If they do avoid Brazil in the R16, they will have a very good chance to make it to the semifinals. Or we might end up a with a real surprise team from among the sides that aren't even in the top 20. For me, almost every team that has made the World Cup has the potential (if they have luck on their side) to at least grind results against teams that are much better on paper.
Wasn't it the other way around? Didn't Germany come from behind in that recent friendly in Paris to beat the French 2-1? I could be wrong as friendlies don't stick in my memory for very long I agree that France are not to be taken lightly. They probably lack the consistency to get very far in this tournament but on a good day they could beat practically anybody as they have a wealth of individual talent. I'd much rather face the Swiss as their talent is limited to begin with.
sorry, you are correct! the 2-1 french win happened the game before. I still stand by what I said though. The French are dangerous and have a star studded team. I have the germans making the final however.
Your points are well taken, my issue isn't that the French stink, it's that hunting for a region in the bracket where there isn't genuine power is really difficult, and considering the draw, and history of the world cup always seemingly delivering one shock team, where might that shock come from? I agree that France has the players to potentially beat Germany, they just for now, don't have the mentality to beat Germany in a tourney. The only teams that have been able to knock out Germany in tourney's have been Spain and Italy, two tourney hardened teams with in once case, current tournament mettle, and in the other, a hard won history of coming out on top of the competition. There are four quandrants of the tourney and it appears that: Brazil or a power from B will take one. Germany is a heavy favorite to take another. Argentina is a favorite to take another. The winner of Group B will likely take the other. Looking at the path, it just appears as if it's unlikely the any surprise squad is strong enough to make a run to the finals other than a Belgium, or a Group G runner up. I might be inclined to pick a Chile, but what would be required of them seems far, far, far too much. To come out of the group of death on top, a minor miracle but okay, then they need to beat probably Mexico from A, that's doable. Then they run into Italy or Uruguay in the quarters. Uruguay maybe, Italy? Again, a bit too much to ask for me. That would require that they basically outperform 3 of Europe's truly elite sides, only managing to avoid Germany. A tall ask. Belgium's run, and the US or Ghana's would be a little bit more forgiving after the group phase.
Thanks to the spreadsheet by Benztown, I have figures out who will be the surprise semifinalist this time around? If my predictions, which I entered quickly without giving them much thought, turn out to be accurate, Chile will make the semifinals by winning the group of death. In several other cases, the scores I entered in the spread sheet produced results that were different than my predictions in this thread. I still have Argentina winning the World Cup, Brazil finishing 2nd, Germany 3rd. But besides Chile finishing 4th, England did better based on my spreadsheet predictions (ended up as quarterfinalist) and while Russia still ended up getting booted out at the R16, they actually won their group.
Hate to say it, but if Chile wins the group, we can't hold no guarantee to make it to semifinals. Chile, may be passing through a great moment at present times, but in our history we've never had much regularity, and I believe that are actual team, may likewise fall in this same type of "sickness", where in one day we beat the best but the next day we lose against the worst. If we do win the group, we may avoid confronting Brazil in next round (whom as always will probably beat us), but we may still lose to Mexico, Croatia or Cameroon in next round, or whomever we may face at quarters to the end. The reason because we are not in the top or the elite teams in the world, is precisely due to our lack of regularity. As a fan, I dearly wish to be wrong this time, in order to play great in all our games in the WC, but it may be delusional to believe that we may achieve it through the whole WC (asuming reaching semis, 7 straight games doesn't seem to be too much games, but francly due to the level of all participating teams in this WC, it may be an eternity or too much games).
I never rated Chile much until World Cup 2010, where I was kind of impressed by them and their articulate style of play. Since then, Chile have done alright. Their results in 2013 were particularly impressive including their draw against pretty much a full squad Spain and win over England. Although history and pedigree are significant and play a role in determining how a team will do, no team is hostage to its pedigree and the fact that many World Cups in the past have featured a so-called suprise semifinalist is proof of that.
Chile have every chance of being the surprise semi finalist. Again, it wouldn't be a surprise though if they were to advance that far. I think England could also reach the qtr.'s, and Russia can top their group.
One thing about my spread sheet predictions that doesn't quite sound right is the fact that I end up with no CAF teams in the Round of 16, although as it turned out the teams in Group A besides Brazil in my predictions ended tied on points and goal difference. The truth, however, is that 2 of the CAF teams with the best chance to advance are Nigeria and the Ivory Coast. The problem is that they are grouped with Asian teams that I support strongly, namely Iran and Japan. Otherwise, while I would be thrilled if Cameroon advanced instead of Mexico, and while I wouldn't have any problems with Algeria advancing from what is to me a group with no absolutely clear cut favorites, the way the numbers and my predictions worked out as I quickly put them in Benztown's spread sheet is as follows. Group A 1- Brazil 9 pts +6 GD 2- Mexico 2 pts -2 GD (5 goals scored) 3- Croatia 2 pts -2 GD (3 goals scored) 4- Cameroon 2 pts -2 GD (3 goals scored) Group B 1- Chile 7 pts +2 GD 2- Spain 5 pts +5 GD 3- Netherlands 4 pts 0 GD 4- Australia 0 pts -6 GD Group C 1- Colombia 7 pts +3 GD 2- Japan 5 pts +1 GD 3- Ivory Coast 2 pts -1 GD 4- Greece 1 pts -3 GD Group D 1- England 7 pts +4 GD 2- Italy 5 pts + 1 GD 3- Uruguay 4 pts - 1 GD 4- Costa Rica 0 pts -4 GD Group E 1- France 5 pts +2 GD 2- Ecuador 5 pts +1 GD (5 goals scored) 3- Switzerland 5 pts +1 GD (3 goals scored) 4- Honduras 0 pts - 4 GD Group F 1- Argentina 9 pts +6 GD 2- Iran 4 pts -2 GD 3- Bosnia 3 pts -2 GD 4- Nigeria 1 pt -2 GD Group G 1- Germany 7 pts +3 GD 2- Portugal 4 pts 0 GD 3- Ghana 2 pts -1 GD 4- USA 2 pts -2 GD Group H 1- Russia 7 pts +3 GD 2- Belgium 5 pts +2 GD 3- Korea Rep 2 pts -1 GD 4- Algeria 1 pt -4 GD --------------------------------------------------- Round of 16 * (because the spread sheet didn't allow for precise predictions in terms of extra time and penalties, the scores I inputed aren't relevant and I will merely indicate which teams advances based on my predictions) Brazil v Spain (Brazil wins) Colombia v Italy (Colombia wins) Chile v Mexico (Chile wins) England v Japan (England wins) France v Iran (France wins) Germany v Beligum (Germany wins) Argentina v Ecuador (Argentina wins) Russia v Portugal (Portugal wins) ------------------------------------------------------ Quarterfinals Brazil v Colombia (Brazil wins) France v Germany (Germany wins) Chile v England (Chile wins) Argentina v Portugal (Argentina wins) ------------------------------------------------------- Semifinals Brazil v Germany (Brazil wins) Chile v Argentina (Argentina wins) ------------------------------------------------------- Third Place Germany v Chile (Germany wins) ------------------------------------------------------- Final Brazil v Argentina (Argentina wins)
Brazil Mexico Holland Chile Colombia Ivory Coast England Uruguay Ecuador France Argentina Bosnia Germany Ghana Russia Belgium Spain, Italy and Portugal all out in the group stage. Similar to world cup 2002. Just 7 European nations get through the group phase while every South American team advances.
Depends which Mexico shows up. If it's the normal World Cup Mexico, Chile would have its hands full, even though I like Chile more as a side. Mexico doesn't fear anyone in Conmebol other than Argentina.
Anyone think Brazil, Argentina or Germany could get KO'd in the first round? It could really open up one part of the bracket. In 2010 we had reigning champion Italy get KO'd in what seemed like an easy group. In 2006, nothing too surprising. Czech Republic was highly rated but they got KO'd in a hard group. In 2002 we had reigning champion France (and 2000 Euro winner) go out in the group stage. Additionally Argentina went out in the group stage in a reasonably hard group (England, Sweden, Nigeria). In 1998 nothing too surprising. Spain went out in the group stage, but Spain of 1998 was not the quality of Spain today. It seems like the recent tournaments outside of Europe (2002 and 2010) can produce more surprises with some of the big teams. This is perhaps a reasonable scenario to see a surprise semi-finalist in the past Sweden, Bulgaria, Croatia, Turkey, Korea mold. Personally, I think Germany is the most likely to be the surprise early exit out of the 3 I listed. They have a difficult group and if they get beaten by Portugal in game 1 then they may find themselves scraping for points against 2 difficult opponents. Just for fun, I will put together a bracket in which Germany goes out in the group stage so we can see how it would look.
A: Brazil, Mexico B: Spain, Holland C: Japan, Columbia D: Italy. Uruguay E: Ecuador, France F: Argentina, Nigeria G: Portugal, United States H: Belgium, Korea Round of 16: Brazil def Holland Japan def Uruguay Ecuador def Nigeria Portugal def Korea Spain def Mexico Italy def Columbia France def. Argentina Belgium def. United States Quarterfinals: Brazil def Japan Portugal def Ecuador Spain def Italy France def Belgium Semifinals: Brazil def Portugal France def Spain 3rd Place: Spain def Portugal Final: France def Brazil
Even without Germany it was hard for me to pick a true surprise in the semifinals. The closest I could come was Ecuador, and I honestly think if they were to match-up with Portugal it would be a toss-up. The beautiful thing about the tournament is how much a surprise first round exit or even a surprise group winner can completely shift the trajectory of the tournament. I would love to see a surprise team such as Iran, Honduras or Costa Rica play well and make the second round. It would also be exciting to see a team such as Japan, Ghana, USA, Mexico, Ecuador, Nigeria, Columbia or Chile get hot and make a run to the semifinals or maybe even deeper. Let's hope the tournament doesn't go completely according to convention and we see some surprises.