News: Forbes article on MLS Playoff Format

Discussion in 'MLS: General' started by Jossed, Oct 15, 2012.

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  1. triplet1

    triplet1 BigSoccer Supporter

    Jul 25, 2006
    Actually, my $1.5 million number was high. From the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

    "One key measure of the Packers’ success last year was the big jump in local revenue, especially ticket revenue. Local revenue totaled $119.3 million, up $18.9 million.

    That number would have climbed even higher had the Packers hosted a playoff game. Team officials estimate a home playoff game generates $1 million in additional revenue."

    http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/126201853.html
     
  2. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yet only about 10 teams in the world have a chance to win the World cup, yet many insist in playing for it.

    Maybe we need a salary CAP for the world cup :p
     
  3. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    They do now, not sure if it will last, Copa MX, and by the way a D2 team will win the first Copa MX.
     
  4. CoconutMonkey

    CoconutMonkey Member

    Aug 3, 2010
    Japan
    Club:
    Chicago
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No need to interpret, the author flat out says that he would prefer a double round robin format, but he also makes it pretty clear that the playoffs aren't going away. He's trying to make a couple of points:

    • "ambitious" teams (i.e. clubs participating in the CCL or go deep in the USOC) are at a demonstrable disadvantage in the post season.
    • despite conventional thinking, hosting the second leg in a 2-game series doesn't really offer much of an advantage.
    • based on his research, he's able to say a lot post season wins long considered to be upsets, were, in fact, the more probable result.
    Whether this is good or bad, basically depends on your own idea of what a season/post season should be.

    However, it's also worth mentioning that his numbers all took place during the balanced schedule/near balanced schedule era with broken seeding. Now that the schedule is unbalanced again, with no conference cross over, and the arguably more deserving teams going to the play in match, we'll just have to wait and see if how the chips fall.
     
  5. sidefootsitter

    sidefootsitter Member+

    Oct 14, 2004
    $1.5M is the 20% of the revenues, since the home side keeps 60% while the guest gets 40%, making the total gate ~ $7.50M.

    In 2009, the Packers had $48M in home attendance revenues, which would give you pretty much an exact $6M gate, if divided by 8 home games. But they probably had higher prices for the playoffs and a different share split for the preseason.

    Of course, they added some seats since then too.

    Oh, right. I forgot about that. I read that some Yank Abroad featuring teams from D2 beat a few D1 teams.
     
  6. Unak78

    Unak78 BigSoccer Supporter

    Dec 17, 2007
    PSG & Enyimba FC
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Nigeria
    I think this would be a very realistic and equitable solution. One of the biggest problems that I have with the current format is it's aggregate nature. It nagates the "home field advantage" by failing to force the lower seeds to actually win a game at the home of the higher seed. I could see a real advantage in treating the second leg overtime period as a true "third leg". It would not force an expansion of the season length and would solve the problem of having lower seeds run up the first leg and coast in the second. Thus defending a home advantage would actually have meaning for the first time since the three game series. It would be a perfectly acceptable alternative to returning to the best of 3 series.
     
    henryo repped this.
  7. Unak78

    Unak78 BigSoccer Supporter

    Dec 17, 2007
    PSG & Enyimba FC
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Nigeria
    They do and it's waay too long. Almost a league in and of itself. It was a cup they'd had for a long time which they'd scrapped awhile back 0nly to bring it back now. It probably needs to be shortened to a straight knockout unless the idea was to gain exposure for smaller clubs and D2 clubs.
     
  8. asoc

    asoc Member+

    Sep 28, 2007
    Tacoma
    Aren't teams in CCL exempt from it? I think teams in Copa America are exempt too or are going to be.
     
  9. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I actually like the group part of it, but I do not like that they also have them as Apertura/Clausura cups (2 cups per cycle). In my opinion if they did the group part in the fall and the knockoff rounds in the spring this would be better.


    Yes CCL and Libertadores teams do not play in the Cup. I wonder how they will do it next year with perhaps 4 CCL teams and 3 Libertadores.
     
  10. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    Also, the league started doling out an allocation aimed precisely at counteracting this effect (one scaryice pointed out a year or two ago). (And fwiw, the sample size is a bit small to be sure, even though I think the point is probably broadly true.)

    Yeah, the purpose exactly was to capture some of the virtue of an odd-game series, and give an advantage back to hosting 2nd, without having to find the extra match dates.
     
  11. DCUdiplomat96

    DCUdiplomat96 Member

    Mar 19, 2005
    Atlanta, GA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    MLS should go back to three Game series but make it like home and home if tied after two games play the third game as a decider at the home of the higher seed team.
     
  12. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    MLS history gives edge to playoff teams hosting 2nd leg
    http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/artic...tory-gives-edge-playoff-teams-hosting-2nd-leg
     
  13. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    MLS managers on playoffs: Better to host 1st or 2nd leg?
    http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2012/10/29/mls-managers-playoffs-better-host-1st-or-2nd-leg
     
  14. CoconutMonkey

    CoconutMonkey Member

    Aug 3, 2010
    Japan
    Club:
    Chicago
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    henryo and Unak78 repped this.
  15. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007

    What? This is a topic for UNIVERSITY RESEARCH!? :alien::geek::eek:

    Repped x 1,000... :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:
     
  16. CoconutMonkey

    CoconutMonkey Member

    Aug 3, 2010
    Japan
    Club:
    Chicago
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Awesome eh? Plus it's from the Germans so you know it's gotta be correct. Sports related research quite possibly the only way to get normal people interested in their stats class.

    I did mine on the relationship between a baseball team's payroll and wins. My conclusion: there is.
     
    henryo repped this.
  17. The Green Mushroom

    Oct 19, 2011
    I like it. I would go one step further though. Make the series a two-games total POINTS series. Whoever has 4 or 6 points at the end of the second leg wins. If both teams have the same number of points, play a third game with extra time and penalties if necessary. Or just give the higher seed the series if the third game is a draw (but not after a two game draw; otherwise the series would end if the higher seed wins the first game).

    But I understand why a third game would be problematic and could easily live with your system.
     
    henryo repped this.
  18. CoconutMonkey

    CoconutMonkey Member

    Aug 3, 2010
    Japan
    Club:
    Chicago
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I like the idea of a 3 game series, but the playoff schedule is already congested as it is.

    I think the Mexican tie-breakers are a nice combination of advantage and fairness.
     
  19. The Green Mushroom

    Oct 19, 2011
    Just to clarify, I have no problem whatsoever with allowing the higher seed to advance with a draw in a two game total-goal series. I even thought of a ten team playoff this morning which would allow the higher seed to advance all the way to the Cup Final without actually winning a game as long as they don't drop more than one games before the conference final.

    What I wrote in my last post, which may or may not cause confusion, is that in a two game total points series, allowing the higher side seed to advance with a draw could be problematic. In a total point series, if the higher seed wins the first game the series is all over because the other team could do no more than tie the series and they lose with a tie. Though now that I think about it, having playoff rounds where one team needs only one win and the other must win one game and do no worse than draw in the other might be interesting.
     
  20. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Awesome!!
     
  21. FuzzyForeigner

    Oct 29, 2003
    WA
    Club:
    Seattle
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    whether you disagree or not on the message or content, forbes.com has been doing some very good articles that are deep and well researched.

    other good articles come from Brian Straus at Sporting News. quality journalism that is replacing the pedantic blogging from mlssoccer.com types.
     
  22. Unak78

    Unak78 BigSoccer Supporter

    Dec 17, 2007
    PSG & Enyimba FC
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Nigeria
  23. sitruc

    sitruc Member+

    Jul 25, 2006
    Virginia
    Her profile says she's still in high school.:cautious:
     
  24. Unak78

    Unak78 BigSoccer Supporter

    Dec 17, 2007
    PSG & Enyimba FC
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Nigeria
    I count 6 or 7 other posters not agreeing with the analysis and noone saying that it's on the mark. And it's even worse when a high school student correctly catches you on something. High school or not, she's right. That's one of the first things you learn in science. When you're comparing two sets of information, the imperative is to prove causation. A basic college psych or philosophy course will go over this. This is an objective property that you should learn if you engage in any type of statistical analysis, so the fact that she knows this and the author doesn't is pretty sad.
     
  25. The Green Mushroom

    Oct 19, 2011
    I once studied the relationship between scoring goals and winning. I found that the team that scores more goals in a match wins 100% of the time.
     

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