Challenge for Everyone: If you could pick one nation to move up at least 5 spots in the FIFA rankings, who would it be, and "why" ??? Quick rule, you can't pick your own country. Inside CONCACAF, I would choose Mexico (it would be good for the world of women's football). Outside of CONCACAF, I'd like to see New Zealand. But I certainly would also like to see China raise up again. I'm not picking any UEFA teams here, because the UEFA confederation is already stacked with elite teams. If I had to pick someone inside UEFA, I would go with Ireland. Following by Switzerland.
I pick Chile. They were at 118 before they played Canada in neutral territory. Pretty much guarantee they go up 5 slots.
if you have not yet watched it, check out the exciting last 30 minutes of Chile's game against Scotland. Very scary, though as Chile is playing wit only 3 defenders
Chile were only ranked #118 due to inactivity; if you look at their points, they were good for #42. Even if they lost all their games, their ranking would jump massively just be becoming an 'active' team again. That said, I would not be surprised to see the jump "from #42" to #37 or something like that.
Here's the infamous Chile upset over Canada, the entire match. The match has no sound, but it's the original broadcast in terms of the video.
Herdman had their third stringer goal keeper in there(Laabe) Two teens manning the defense(16 year & 18 year olds Yekka & Buchanan) and brought even the younger newbie, the 15 year old Fleming in the 2nd half. I think Canada is trying to get them ready for next year's u17 & u20 wc's
Alright, I'll still have to wait until the South American Games to have their next matchday for a full update, but now that Algarve and Cyprus are done with, I want to make make an estimate of ratings changes. I'll look at most of the top20, and some other interesting teams (like Chile). USA vsCAN: 30pt weighting, ~0.88 expected result, 0.85 actual result = -0.9pts vsRUS: 15pt weighting, ~0.95 expected result, 0.99 actual result = +0.6pts vsRUS: 15pt weighting, ~0.95 expected result, 0.99 actual result = +0.6pts vsJPN: 30pt weighting, ~0.71 expected result, 0.50 actual result = -6.3pts vsSWE: 30pt weighting, ~0.77 expected result, 0.15 actual result = -18.6pts vsDEN: 15pt weighting, ~0.869 expected result, 0.107 actual result = -11.4pts vsDPK: 30pt* weighting, ~0.80 expected result, 0.96 actual result = +4.8pts NET: -31.2pts --> ~2197 *At the time of the match, I don't think England or Italy pipped N.Korea for 10th GER vsISL: 15pt weighting, ~0.87 expected result, 0.98 actual result = +1.65pts vsCHN: 15pt weighting, ~0.87 expected result, 0.85 actual result = -0.3pts vsNOR: 30pt weighting, ~0.741 expected result, 0.911 actual result = +5.1pts vsJPN: 30pt weighting, ~0.61 expected result, 0.96 actual result = +10.5pts NET: +16.95pts --> ~2173 JPN vsUSA: 30pt weighting, ~0.29 expected result, 0.50 actual result = +6.3pts vsDEN: 15pt weighting, ~0.76 expected result, 0.85 actual result = +1.35pts vsSWE: 30pt weighting, ~0.55 expected result, 0.84 actual result = +8.7pts vsGER: 30pt weighting, ~0.39 expected result, 0.04 actual result = -10.5pts NET: +5.85pts --> 2077 SWE vsDEN: 15pt weighting, ~0.70 expected result, 0.92 actual result = +3.3pts vsUSA: 30pt weighting, ~0.23 expected result, 0.85 actual result = +18.6pts vsJPN: 30pt weighting, ~0.45 expected result, 0.16 actual result = -8.7pts vsISL: 15pt weighting, ~0.77 expected result, 0.16 actual result = -9.15pts NET: +4.05pts --> 2025 next: FRA, CAN, AUS, ENG, SCO (Note: despite SWE's win over the US, their estimated net gain isn't enough to overcome FRA's previous ranking, so taking into account FRA's Cyrpus win, SWE is still behind Les Blues. Their relation to BRA remains to be seen, though BRA 0-0 URU was an eye-opening result)
FRA vsSWE: 30pt weighting, ~0.65 expected result, 0.96 actual result = +9.3pts vsSCO: 15pt weighting, ~0.80 expected result, 0.50 actual result = -4.5pts vsAUS: 30pt weighting, ~0.60 expected result, 0.83 actual result = +6.9pts vsNED: 15pt weighting, ~0.73 expected result, 0.96 actual result = +3.5pts vsENG: 30pt* weighting, ~0.62 expected result, 0.92 actual result = +9.0pts NET: +24.2pts --> 2051 CAN vsSCO: 15pt weighting, ~0.71 expected result, 0.92 actual result = +3.2pts vsCHL: 15pt weighting, ~0.92 expected result, 0.15 actual result = -11.6pts vsBRA: 30pt weighting, ~0.28 expected result, 0.47 actual result = +5.7pts vsSCO: 15pt weighting, ~0.73 expected result, 0.85 actual result = +1.8pts vsUSA: 30pt weighting, ~0.12 expected result, 0.15 actual result = +0.9pts vsFIN: 15pt weighting, ~0.74 expected result, 0.96 actual result = +3.3pts vsITA: 15pt weighting, ~0.63 expected result, 0.911 actual result = +4.2pts vsENG: 30pt* weighting, ~0.55 expected result, 0.08 actual result = -14.2pts vsIRE: 15pt weighting, ~0.88 expected result, 0.84 actual result = -0.6pts NET: -7.3pts --> 1971 AUS vsNED: 15pt weighting, ~0.63 expected result, 0.51 actual result = -1.8pts vsFRA: 30pt weighting, ~0.40 expected result, 0.17 actual result = -6.9pts vsSCO: 15pt weighting, ~0.69 expected result, 0.098 actual result = -8.9pts vsITA: 15pt weighting, ~0.58 expected result, 0.944 actual result = +5.5pts NET: -12.1pts --> 1945 ENG vsNOR: 15pt weighting, ~0.46 expected result, 0.50 actual result = +0.6pts vsITA: 15pt weighting, ~0.57 expected result, 0.92 actual result = +5.3pts vsFIN: 15pt weighting, ~0.70 expected result, 0.96 actual result = +3.9pts vsCAN: 30pt* weighting, ~0.45 expected result, 0.92 actual result = +14.2pts vsFRA: 30pt* weighting, ~0.38 expected result, 0.08 actual result = -9.0pts NET: +13.8pts --> 1956 SCO vsCAN: 15pt weighting, ~0.29 expected result, 0.08 actual result = -3.2pts vsBRA: 15pt weighting, ~0.23 expected result, 0.089 actual result = -2.1pts vsCHL: 15pt weighting, ~0.82 expected result, 0.18 actual result = -9.6pts vsCAN: 15pt weighting, ~0.27 expected result, 0.15 actual result = -1.8pts vsFIN: 15pt weighting, ~0.39 expected result, 0.089 actual result = -4.5pts vsFRA: 15pt weighting, ~0.20 expected result, 0.50 actual result = +4.5pts vsNED: 15pt weighting, ~0.41 expected result, 0.82 actual result = +6.2pts vsAUS: 15pt weighting, ~0.31 expected result, 0.902 actual result = +8.9pts vsKOR: 15pt weighting, ~0.49 expected result, 0.50 actual result = +0.2pts NET: -1.4pts --> 1819 Of course, these are only estimates, but it looks like Australia drops out of the top 10 in favor of England, a switch that occurred on gameday 2 of the Cyprus Cup. (And because it was a switch, N.Korea still didn't drop out of the top10, so the calculation in my first post stands.) It doesn't look like there are any other order changes, though, despite mid-tournament shuffling. Later today: some combination of South American teams. =edit= I haven't calculated their numbers, but there's a possibility that NOR dropped out of the top10 after their loss to Russia. The ENG/AUS switch occurred right at 1950pts, though, and I don't think NOR had lost 23+ points just from the group stage. Of course, NOR may still be in 10th and just around 1930-1940pts instead - ITA has lost points, and while DEN may have gained points thanks to their upset of the USA, they were 100pts behind NOR, so they wouldn't have overcome that gap.
That's what the bolding is for. Besides, this is a thread about the rankings, you should expect numbers here!
Well, it seems that if France wins its two games in USA in June (who knows ?), Germany could be #1 and France #3...
Bravo, SiberianThunder! I like numbers. I am waiting for next FIFA rankings' update the check the accuracy of your predictions. By the way, when next FIFA rankings' update is due?
haha X-D I cut a lot of corners while doing this with rounding and temporal order, so I expect to be a bit off - though unless I severely misunderstood something, I hope I be within 5pts or so of each real rating. And I obviously forgot to do my South American ranking last week... Will try to fit it in later today.
Alright, now that ODESUR is over... All are 15pt weightings, so I'll drop that note for now. At least I think they're all 15pt weightings... ODESUR is not the Sudamerica Femenino, so I think it counts as a friendly tournament in terms of weighting. This is one place I could be WAY off in my predictions. BRA vsCHL: ~0.97 expected result, 0.92 actual result = -0.7pts vsSCO: ~0.86* expected result, 0.911 actual result = +0.8pts vsCAN: ~0.72 expected result, 0.47 actual result = -3.7pts vsCHL: ~0.96 expected result, 0.98 actual result = +0.3pts vsURU: ~0.98 expected result, 0.47 actual result = -7.7pts vsVEN: ~0.98 expected result, 0.98 actual result = 0pts vsCOL: ~0.90 expected result, 0.84 actual result = -0.9pts vsARG: ~0.91 expected result, 0.47 actual result = -6.7pts vsVEN: ~0.98 expected result, 0.92 actual result = -0.9pts NET: -19.5pts --> 2011 *I forgot that include BRA's home field advantage when calculating SCO's points the other day ARG vsCHL: ~0.42 expected result, 0.15 actual result = -4.0pts vsBOL: ~0.89 expected result, 0.97 actual result = +1.2pts vsBRA: ~0.09 expected result, 0.47 actual result = +5.8pts vsCHL: ~0.43 expected result, 0.84 actual result = +6.2pts NET: +9.2pts --> 1618 CHL vsBRA: ~0.03 expected result, 0.08 actual result = +0.7pts vsCAN: ~0.08 expected result, 0.85 actual result = +11.6pts vsSCO: ~0.18 expected result, 0.82 actual result = +9.6pts vsBRA: ~0.04 expected result, 0.02 actual result = -0.3pts vsARG: ~0.58 expected result, 0.85 actual result = +4.0pts vsBOL: ~0.92 expected result, 0.92 actual result = 0pts vsVEN: ~0.86 expected result, 0.47 actual result = -5.8pts vsARG: ~0.57 expected result, 0.16 actual result = -6.2pts NET: +13.6pts --> 1558 ^CHL would have done MUCH better with the results they got, except that they hosted ODESUR, so that really knocks down their results. VEN vsCOL: ~0.14 expected result, 0.85 actual result = +10.6pts vsBRA: ~0.02 expected result, 0.02 actual result = 0pts vsURU: ~0.51 expected result, 0.97 actual result = +6.9pts vsCHL: ~0.14 expected result, 0.47 actual result = +4.9pts vsBRA: ~0.02 expected result, 0.08 actual result = +0.9pts NET: +23.3pts --> 1361
So right now, if I make really rough estimate of teams I haven't looked at, for the top-15-plus-some I'd have: 1. USA (2197) 2. GER (2173) 3. JPN (2077) 4. FRA (2051) - UP1 5. SWE (2025) - UP1 6. BRA (2011) - DN2 7. CAN (1971) 8*. ENG (1956) - UP~2 8*. DPK (~1956? IDK) - UP~2 10. NOR (~1956? likely less) - DN2 11. AUS (1945) - DN2 12. DEN (~1880) - UP1 13. NED (~1870) - UP1 14. ITA (~1860) - DN2 15. ESP (~1850) CHN (~1840) - UP KOR (~1835) - ? NZL (~1820) - DN SCO (1819) - ?
Well, it looks like there were some important changes. And Chile leapfrogs a lot of average-to-good teams (maybe more, should it happen that ODESUR is counted as official FIFA match and not just friendly). I can't wait to check that with official FIFA rankings on the 28th of March
Chile won some spectacular games (like vs Olympics bronze medal and first time over Argentina) and played the finals of the two tournaments played. Having sayed that, the cold results show 8 games played, 4 won, 1 tied and 3 losed with 9 goals and 12 goals against. Those 13.6pts seems right. On the other side Venezuela with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats won +23.3 pts , and Brasil loosing -19.5pts (if they not won the games 5-0 they loose points ) dont seems too fair for me.
For the records, most friendlies are official matches according to FIFA, they're just not weighted very much. This wasn't an "official" continental championship, though, (nor an Olympic games,) so unless FIFA is more lax about what a continental championship is I don't see the ODESUR matches being weighted more. Besides, Chile had a net loss of points in their ODESUR games - if those games are weighted more, Chile would probably be closer to a zero net change. Well, Brazil has a 400pt advantage over its closest CONMEBOL competition, and almost 800 over the weakest South American team. So I think it is fair to have such high expected results. It's not so incredibly different than what USA, GER, and JPN have to deal with, but those other three teams play against closer competition more often, so their expected results are more in the 0.8-0.9 range instead of the 0.9-1.0 range. The fact that BRA hosted their little December tournament also inflated their expected results for those matches. (And, actually, 2-goal wins are enough to meet an 0.9 expected result, which is a lot more reasonable than 5-goal wins.) Likewise, CHL's expected results were inflated for the ODESUR matches. They would have had smaller losses and larger gains for those four games had they been playing elsewhere, so I think the points changes shown are relatively fair. (Not to mention it's just easier in general to move lower down in the rankings, so VEN's points rise makes sense in that aspect as well.)
Germany close on USA as France hit all-time high The results of the two women’s tournaments traditionally held in the early part of the year, the Cyprus Cup and the Algarve Cup, have had a significant effect on the latest edition of the FIFA/Coca-Cola Women’s World Ranking. USA retained first place despite a lukewarm performance at the Algarve Cup, making it their sixth year at the top. However, Germany are getting closer and closer behind them in second, after taking the title in the Algarve following four convincing victories, including a 3-0 win over world champions Japan in the final. Just 24 points now separate the two teams at the top. England (8th, up 3) have also reaped the rewards of their strong performance in the Cyprus Cup, their run of wins to get to the decider helping them back up into the top ten. Also on the up are France, who after winning the Cyprus Cup have moved up to fourth – their best-ever position. That was at the expense of Brazil, who have also been overtaken by Sweden (5th, up 1) to drop to sixth, their worst placement since June 2007. The results of 142 matches were taken into account for the latest edition of the FIFA/Coca-Cola Women’s World Ranking. Alongside France (4th, up 1), three more teams have achieved their best-ever positions: Scotland (19th, up 1), Belgium (26th, up 1) and Chile (41st). Eight teams have re-entered the global ladder after a long period of inactivity (Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Venezuela, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt and Mali), while Guam, Dominica and Antigua and Barbuda are no longer ranked, which brings the total number of teams included to 122. http://www.fifa.com/worldranking/news/women/newsid=2304079/index.html
I really have to clap my hands and compliment SiberianThunder! His prediction were impressivly accurate: for most of the teams that he calculated, he had the points right or he missed by just a single point. The teams that had a higher error weren't more that 2 or 3, if I am not wrong, and anyway he never missed by more than 10 points at max. Ok, if you have got the right algorithm, you should be expected to get the same results, but you anyway have to be good at calculations and at gathering complete and correct info. So I hereby publicly praise SiberianThunder as an official FIFA rankings' guru!
Thanks! ^.^ I see the reason I was so 'off' on Sweden's prediction is that, despite harping on it in the NT threads, I didn't include the FRA-SWE friendly in SWE's games. I did include it in FRA's prediction, and you can see that game accounts for the ~9pts difference between my prediction for SWE and the actual ranking. Still not sure why I was 5pts off for BRA, though...
Well done, SiberianThunder, indeed! You are practically the Nate Silver of Big Soccer! I am glad (for no other reason than pride) that Norway is still in top ten with their poor showing at Algarve Cup!
AAHH I see where my mistake was with BRA now - I treated BRA-CAN as a regular friendly when it was a Top-Ten clash, so I should have doubled its worth, which adds ~4pts to BRA's drop in rating.