If we get a win or a draw out of this game, we're in the playoffs! With 7 games (21 points) left, here's how many points we need to clinch the following positions: 4th place: 1 point 3rd place: 4 points 2nd place: 9 points 1st place: 13 points We might end up needing fewer points if other results go our way, but with 13 points we would control our own destiny. BTW, if we get 12 or more points we will have done better (on a points-per-game basis) than last year's LA Sol. Supposedly Ali Riley's injury is not as bad as it initially appeared, though there has not yet been an official announcement. In any case, I hope they hold her out of the game if there is any doubt at all about her health. It's a little early to speculate about lineups and formations, but I will say that I don't expect to see them play with 3 in the back this time. They certainly would not try it without Riley, but even if Riley plays I think it is unlikely. One big downside of playing with a back 3 was exposed against Atlanta: if any one of our three top defenders gets injured, we do not have the personnel to continue to play the system. I think I had a heart attack during the 3 minutes we tried to play a back 3 with Graczyk. To Montoya's credit it took him only 3 minutes to realize that was suicide, bring in Wilson, and switch to a back 4. But it's still a problem that one injury can require us to make two subs. If we had not had another sub available to bring in Wilson, we might have been in trouble. IMHO, if we want to keep the back 3 in our bag of tricks, we need to make sure that one of our midfielders is capable of playing defense in an emergency. I'm thinking maybe Edwards or Boxx, though even O'Hara could be a possibility. Basically we just need to know we can switch to a back 4 without falling apart, even if we don't have any subs left. Another thought about this game is, if we're going to bring in a new player at all this season, now would be the time. We've got an open full roster spot, an open dev spot, and an open international spot. The transfer window is open. We've got a two-week homestand coming up. They might just be planning to finish the season with 20 players to save money on salaries, but, if they are bringing anyone in, the clock is ticking.
One minor improvement. We don't actually need 9 points (total of 47) to clinch second place. Even though we own the 2-way tie-breaker over Philly, and the 2-way tie-breaker over Boston, I thought there was a chance we could lose the 3-way tiebreaker if all three teams finished even at 46 points. However, this was wrong for two reasons: 1. We have already clinched the 3-way tie-breaker over Philly and Boston. Worst case we finish with 2.14 PPG in head-to-head games with Philly and Boston. Best case for Philly is 1.43 PPG, and best case for Boston is 1.63 PPG. 2. It turns out it's actually impossible for both Boston and Philly to get to 46, since they play each other twice more. If Boston wins both, as they must do to get 46, Philly's max is down to 45. So it's impossible to have a 3-way tie on 46 anyway. The upshot is, 46 gets us second place for sure. But now, what about 45 points? One thing to note is that it's impossible for Boston to finish with exactly 45 points. They can get 46 if they win out, but in such a case Philly must lose at least twice, meaning Philly's max is 45. But we have already clinched the 2-way tie-breaker against Philly, so it turns out that 45 points would guarantee us at least second place. My updated chart is here: 4th place: 1 point 3rd place: 4 points 2nd place: 7 points 1st place: 13 points
I have a question for you FCGP fans about Carrie Dew. Why is she not getting more playing time? It seems that she is being wasted on the bench. I've watched her play many games while at Notre Dame and I thought she was phenominal last year for FCGP. IMO she is a big time player. I would think there is a team in the WPS that can use a player like Carrie Dew and not have her wasting at the end of Montoya's bench.
I'm pretty sure she would be next on the depth chart at central defense if either Buehler or Chapman got hurt. Montoya does not like to sub central defenders when he does not have to, so she does not get much playing time there. She's too slow to play outside back, and actually a little on the slow side even for central defense. She definitely cannot play as part of a back three at this level. If it turns out that Ali Riley's injury is enough to keep her out for a while, there is some chance that Dew could move into the starting lineup. It would either be Wilson-Chapman-Buehler-Graczyk or Wilson-Chapman-Dew-Buehler. I think Dew is probably a little better than Graczyk, but I think Graczyk still might get the nod because she can play outside and not disrupt the Chapman-Buehler partnership in the center. Earlier in the season Dew was being used sometimes as a defensive mid, but she seems to be behind both Boxx and Edwards in that pecking order. There was one game where we tried to play with all three of them (Boxx, Edwards, Dew), but it was horrible and the idea was scrapped. Since then, she really hasn't gotten much of a shot in midfield. So, it's not that she sucks, it's just that there is a lot of competition at positions where she can play. Her relative lack of speed also does not help.
Updated chart after Philly loses to Washington. Number of points needed for FCGP to clinch: 4th place: 1 point 3rd place: 4 points 2nd place: 7 points 1st place: 10 points
A couple of improved bounds here. I believe CVille's argument in the playoffs thread establishes that FCGP have already clinched a playoff spot. Further, a more detailed analysis indicates that 41 points is enough to clinch 3rd place. (Boston and SBFC play twice more; SBFC must win both or they will have at most 40 points; but then Boston's max is 40.) So, from a fan excitement perspective, the bad news is that we've already clinched a playoff spot. However, a win would allow us to clinch 3rd place and (thus) a home playoff game. So we'll definitely have something to cheer for this weekend. And cheering for a win is more fun than cheering for a draw anyway. Updated chart: Number of points needed for FCGP to clinch: 4th place: 0 points 3rd place: 3 points 2nd place: 7 points 1st place: 10 points
The roster report is out. For FCGP, Kelley O'Hara (knee) and Ali Riley (hip) are listed as questionable, but both are eligible to play. The game-day 18 includes all 17 players from the senior roster plus Rosie Tantillo from the dev roster. For Chicago, Karen Carney (ankle) is probable, while Jessica McDonald and Nikki Washington both miss out due to knee injuries. But the bigger news for them is the departure of Kosovare Asllani and Anita Asante. I'm honestly not sure what their lineup is going to look like. As for the FCGP lineup, that's also hard to predict. As usual, it would not be out of the question to see a 3-5-2, 3-4-3, 4-4-2, or 4-3-3. I'm going to guess that Riley will be healthy enough to play but that O'Hara will be held out of the starting lineup. [The reasoning there is just that IMHO there's a dropoff from Riley to Graczyk, while Milbrett is playing just as well as O'Hara, so no need to risk O'Hara if she is not 100%.] Accordingly, I'll predict that this week they'll go back to the 4-3-3 with Edwards at d-mid behind Abily and Boxx. If we start to lose the midfield (as we might when facing Formiga) the triangle can easily be flipped to put Boxx and Edwards at d-mid behind Abily. [LINEUP-4-3-3] Marta, Sinclair, Milbrett, Abily, Edwards, Boxx, Riley, Buehler, Chapman, Wilson, Barnhart [/LINEUP-4-3-3] Later this month Abily will be missing a couple of games when she goes to play for France, and I think FCGP will use that opportunity to see if Boxx can run the team as the attacking mid in the 4-4-2 with Edwards behind her and O'Hara and Milbrett on the wings. But I think that as long as Abily is here, you have to find a way to play with three central mids, which means a 4-3-3 or a 3-5-2. (I've been wrong before, though.)
On balance I think FCGP was a little unlucky to be held to a draw. Chicago dominated possession in the first half, but FCGP dominated possession in the second half. And overall FCGP did a somewhat better job converting their possession into chances. There were also a couple of really bizarre offside decisions. In the first half, a Chicago midfielder overhit a backpass intended for a Chicago defender. Marta ran onto what was essentially a perfect through ball, but was unbelievably called offside! The assistant referee thought the ball was played by an FCGP player. Unreal. Then in the second half FCGP had the ball in the net, only for it to be called back for offside, but the play was really weird. I'm hoping it shows up when the game highlights come out. The ball was in the net, the ref pointed to the center circle (as for a Chicago kickoff), the assistant ref did not raise his flag. Everyone cheered for 10 seconds. But then suddenly the goal was disallowed. WTF? Anyway... the first half was really ugly. FCGP played a 4-4-2, but there wasn't enough creativity in the midfield to get the ball to the forwards in dangerous positions. Marta and Sinclair barely touched the ball. Chicago was able to keep possession for virtually the entire half, but even though they had the ball they weren't able to create very many clear-cut scoring opportunities of their own. Their main plan seemed to be to kick it into the corners and try to outrun Ali Riley and Kandace Wilson. Bad plan. Everything changed in the second half. Abily came in for Milbrett and they switched to a 4-3-3. Abily made all the difference with her ability to get the ball to the forwards in dangerous positions. She's basically on the same wavelength as Marta in a way that no one else is; it's like they're telepathic. Suddenly the Chicago defense had to actually do some defending. That took the pressure off the FCGP midfield and turned the balance of the game. In the end, it was frustrating not to get a goal, but the very nice second half was an antidote to the lackluster first half. Rapinoe and O'Hara had a nice little duel going there for a while. Both players had excellent games.
A couple more things after reading the match report: 1. I had forgotten about the great save Loyden had in the first half. That was undoubtedly the play of the game. I actually had my arms raised in triumph because it seemed like there was no way it could be saved, but she kept it out. 2. Evidently the FCGP goal was called back due to a foul on Boxx rather than for offside. Ok, whatever. If it was a foul, it was a foul. I'm just confused about why the ref initially gave the goal but then changed his mind 10 seconds later. It was really bizarre. It's not like he gave the goal but then called it back when he saw the linesman's flag; he called it back after changing his own mind. I've never seen that. Oh also, we've now clinched at least 4th place. The number of points needed to guarantee finishing higher is as follows: 3rd place: 2 points 2nd place: 6 points 1st place: 9 points
There's now a rumor that Kaley Fountain is leaving FCGP for another WPS team. If true, FCGP will be down to 19 players! I'm kind of sorry to see her go, even though she never really played that well in the few chances she got. She seemed like she had a lot of potential, but was still too raw to be an effective defender at this level. Given some time and the right environment, I could definitely see her turning into a player.
