Euro 2016 qualifying format

Discussion in 'UEFA and Europe' started by BocaFan, Aug 23, 2013.

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What format should UEFA go with for the 2016 Euro qualifiers?

Poll closed Feb 23, 2014.
  1. Option 1

    7.7%
  2. Option 2

    38.5%
  3. Option 3 - two phases, small groups

    30.8%
  4. Option 4 - two phases, large groups

    7.7%
  5. Other (specify)

    15.4%
  1. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    That's true, but it will only count for 20% of the coefficient formula for the Euro 2020. I don't see the big problem. Even if 80% of their squad changes, the 20% weight would still be apt.

    Also, its interesting that you use the word "merit" while arguing against using actual results of qualifying matches to determine seeding order. Man United will probably be bigger favorites than Arsenal to win next season's Champions League (assuming they qualify). Now if Man United finishes 4th and Arsenal finish 1st-3rd in the EPL this season, should we give Man Utd an advantage in next year's CL just because they are expected to perform better? Or should we actually reward Arsenal (on merit) because they did better in the qualifying for the tournament?

    I'd go with the latter.
     
  2. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    #102 Blondo, Jan 29, 2014
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2014
    The actual results of qualifying matches, do you think those are ignored by the gambling industry? ... when a player isn't part of the team anymore (e.g. retires ... either at club or country level), odds setters will make adjustments ... the amount of variables they take into account dwarves those of UEFA ... the aim is to get the best possible reflection of reality (comparative strengths of teams = merit) ... in this respect UEFA is outclassed by the gambling industry.

    I feel we'll stick to our guns on this subject ... imho and the opinion of the bookmakers France already boasts and will boast a stronger team than e.g. the Ukraine, Bosnia, Russia, Greece, etc. ... all of which UEFA considers as stronger teams than France (according to their coefficient) ... even Hungary gets lots of 'UEFA love' ... after all it's crazy game and maybe I just underestimate Hungary ... still the group that draws Hungary instead of Belgium will be happier (also imagine if we had to put the teams in pots for the final draw today both these teams would end up in pot 3).
     
  3. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    Not completely, but the gambling formula takes into account so many variables which have nothing to do with performance of National Teams (e.g. what is Ronaldo's form at Real Madrid?), so something like results of qualifying matches becomes worth much less in the final calculation. For e.g. Portugal were always going to have better odds to win WC 2014 than Russia regardless which order they finished in their group. So should Portugal be seeded higher in the WC draw? Or should it be based purely on NT performance and group winners get seeded higher than the teams they finished above in qualifying?

    That shouldn't be the aim IMO. At least not always.

    And maybe I underestimate Belgium, but having them as 5th-favorites to win WC'14 in Brazil (like most gambling websites do) is batshit!
     
  4. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    The aim is to get balanced groups based on the strength of each team ... for their performance in the qualifiers/previous trnys they already receive a Euro/WC berth (or play-off spot) and if you win it all ... glory + trophy. I'm not convinced that teams should get help for what they achieved in the past as they already were rewarded for that nor for hosting the event as they already received an automatic berth ... seeding should prevent the strongest 9 teams (qualifiers) or 6 (final event) from being drawn into the same group ... likewise for the next strongest 9 or 6 and so on.

    Should Portugal (Italy or Holland for arguments sake) ... be seeded higher than e.g. the Swiss ... yes, imho Italy and Holland deserved a seed in Brazil ... based on comparative strengths instead of FIFA's ranking.

    I agree that Belgium have been a punters wet dream in the Brazil2014 campaign (big movers for money ... 250/1 at the beginning of this campaign, 16/1 before the draw and after they were as short as 14/1 = a price that is still being taken ... that's why I said have a look in the kitchen ... yet even without the bias Belgium would still rank in the top 9 for next month's Euro2016 Q draw ... it's batshit that Greece, Russia and Bosnia are top seeds while teams like Belgium and France (if they had to qualify) are pot 2 teams according to UEFA ... there are plenty of teams that would change pots if the ranking was based on comparative strengths.
     
  5. Hideo

    Hideo Member

    Newcastle United and Shimizu S-Pulse
    Apr 30, 2010
    Newcastle upon Tyne
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    I really don't see how you could set the seeding pots based on anything other than the national team's results. Bookies may well use all sorts of complex algorithms to come up with their odds, but they also rely heavily on the whim's of personal opinion. Ronaldo's form at club level for instance as someone else mentioned. Bookies odds also fluctuate due to the amount of money wagered on the various outcomes. Lots of money bet on Belgium means the odds shorten as the bookies seek t limit any possible losses as Belgium gain more popularity. So the odds are also influenced by the choices of millions of punters - is that really a basis for tournament seedings? Surely not.
     
    108thLegendary repped this.
  6. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    That's also not what I'm aiming at (oddsmakers aren't as whimsical as FIFA's or UEFA's ranking ... they mainly look at results too but as I said before you need to have a look into the kitchen = before the opening line moves) ... oddsmaker's power ratings (and preferably the adjusted ones) are a much better representation of comparative strengths than either FIFA's or UEFA's ranking ... the latter will be used in the Nations League (November 2017 edition) to divide NTs into 4 divisions (and probably to seed them too) ... when UEFA's ranking increases its impact, then I'd prefer it that the ranking reflects the comparative strengths of NTs as closely as possible.
     
  7. 108thLegendary

    108thLegendary Member+

    Apr 8, 2006
    #107 108thLegendary, Apr 1, 2014
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2014
    Belgium is the most overrated NT in the world.

    Bosnia spanked Belgium in the past WC qualifiers (for WC in South Africa) and it will spank them in the next Euro qualifiers again.

    Bosnia 2 Belgium 1

    Belgium 2 Bosnia 4

    Edit: here is something about Euro 2020 qualifying format www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2590500/UEFA-approve-new-Nations-League-tournament-replace-friendlies.html
     
  8. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    That's a link to the UNL (a friendlies trny ... the format still has to be finalized but it will probably reward 4 NTs with a EURO2020 berth ... the other 20 berths will be decided via the usual qualifiers).

    I agree that the Belgian NT is often being overrated since the Brazil2014 campaign started ... however there are very few Belgians that will overhype our own team ... it's the media circus that splits opinion ... either people feel that we're overrated or they view us as dark horses (some even have us down as one of the favorites in Brazil). Still UEFA's ranking did not place Belgium in the top 15 of Europe for the EURO2016 qualifiers (November 2013 edition) while there's a fair chance Belgium will do well at that tournament ... but I'm confident that you feel Belgium have been overrated by UEFA too (after having read what you posted in other threads).

    PS in case you didn't know there's a thread about Bosnia in WR ... feel free to tag me when you want to start one about a Bosnia v Belgium rivalry ... when the EURO2016 Qs kick off, I might start to care ... in Brazil I actually fancy Bosnia and you probably will do well (betting you'll qualify from your group together with Argentina).
     

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