Pre-match: EURO 2012: Italy - Croatia (June 14th, 2012) [R]

Figured I'd get the ball rolling on the match thread since there is much to discuss.

So what now for Italy? What changes would you make in Prandelli's place?

I would stick to the 3-5-2. It worked well and he'd be foolish to use it as a one-off. Keep De Rossi in the center. I would insert Balzaretti instead of Giaccherini and I would start again with Balotelli and Cassano. I would give Balo another chance. He knows he made a mess of things today but he'll want to make it up to everyone.

Balzaretti for Giac...and although it won't happen, I'd like to try Nocerino over Motta.

I'd try giving Di Natale the start over Balo this time.

di natale will not give you much if he's starting. he's better suited as a late sub when the other team's defenders are already gassed. he's a speedy forward coming on with fresh legs which allows him to blow pass defenders thats been on the field for the whole game.. if he's up against defenders with fresh legs he doesn't do much. he's also not as skilled as cassano or balo. i actually hope they start him so people will finally realize he's better suited as a sub. why would you change his roll when almost all his goals for italy were late goal when he came on as a sub.

Keep in mind that this match will be nothing at all like the Spain match, as Croatia is a totally different type of team. Italy will have a lot more possession. It would be a mistake to stick with the 3-5-2 against Croatia, who are extremely familiar with 3-back sets having been among the most successful exponents of it in the 90s and early 2000s. But Prandelli may opt to do it anyway because the alternative would involve difficult man-management decisions.

Croatia is crafty in attack and I expect them to get a goal along the way somewhere. But they are weak in the back and Italy should attack them ruthlessly and look to strike hard and early and put the match away. The correct formation to do that is a 4-3-3 and that means dropping De Rossi, Italy's best player against Spain, since he is not compatible with Pirlo in a 3-man midfield. I am not sure Prandelli has the balls to do that.

The best lineup would be:
Buffon
Abate-Bonucci-Chiellini-Balzaretti
Motta-Pirlo-Marchisio
Balotelli-Di Natale-Cassano

It has been demonstrated clearly that Mario is willing and able to drop deep and battle for the ball. And without a doubt, he has the creativity and power to hold up the ball and create chances from deeper. This gives the possibility of playing him as Milan plays Boateng... a physically and technically imposing neo-trequartista with a lot of positional freedom who also puts in a shift harassing the opponent's backline and holding mids.
This allows Di Natale to play in his preferred role as an out-and-out, goal-poaching striker, and Cassano to play in his preferred floating secunda punta role out on the flanks.
I seriously doubt that Croatia's backline will be able to cope with that kind of attacking power.
This lineup is not only more tactically appropriate, it also aids in player rotation. In particular, if Italy can grab a lead, De Rossi could be brought on for Pirlo as early as possible, and Nocerino for Motta (or for a striker if the game needs to be killed). Plus of course the obligatory Giovinco for Cassano substitution.

That's what Italy SHOULD do, but I expect the temptation to stick with what worked against SPain to be too great to resist. In that case, Italy may see a lot of the ball but lack cutting edge because they have too many men at the back. De Rossi and the wingbacks would need to be extremely swashbuckling in joining the attack to overcome that formational disadvantage, and the team could become unbalanced that way. Better to start with the correct formation. The 3-5-2 can be rolled out again if Italy makes the knockout stages, to discomfit other high-powered teams like the Germans or Dutch or French.

I have been one of Di Natale's biggest critics but a lack of skill is certainly not one of his shortcomings. He is one of the most technical players in Italy, and shows it very often with sublime touches in Serie A. He is a very different style of player from Cassano, and a very different personality, which has not worked so well for the Azzurri in the past. But hopefully the floodgates are open now.

I would give Balo one more chance to start. If any team is suited for him to play against it is Croatia. He will have tons of space to do his magic. I predict Balo has his breakout game against Croatia.

It is the decisive game for Italy, A win and we are through, a loss and we are out
A tie and we have to pray the other games work to our benefit
Croatia is a very tough team, and this game is likely tougher than Spain
I predict a tie.

My worry is that yellow card he now has attached to his name...

True but I'd rather him start this game because we have to win and if he does pick up another one we should be able to beat Ireland without him. Di Natale is perfect for the first guy off the bench to go at a tiring defense and we really have to get everybody involved because we are not there yet on a physical level so hopefully Prandelli makes a few changes for this game. I'd even use Ogbonna and put De Rossi right in front of the defense for this game. Use something like a 3-1-4-2. We are going to have to play a more physical game for Croatia. And De Rossi can handle any role. Like Mourinho said he is the Joker on this team.

I almost fell out of my chair this morning when I read that Prandelli said "Giaccherini was the best player on the pitch". Are you kidding me? This sounds like the typical crap some CTs spew to justify their borderline decisions. God, I hope that was just ego talking. Croatia will not be playing with 6 midfielders. They will attack the wings relentlessly and they will have a forward in the middle ready to capitalize. We cannot expose our left flank like that.

It would be one thing if Giac were a powerhouse going forward and sending in crosses, but he can't do that. He simply doesn't have the pace to get by full backs regularly. I think Balzaretti is a must.

I am confident we can get all 3 points here. Croatia were good vs Ireland but incredibly fortunate as well. Their first 2 goals were very strange to say the least. Ireland's mediocre attack posed their equally mediocre defense some problems. There will be many chances to score hopefully Balo, ADN, Cassano finish them off!

I agree with 'Uaglio.

Against Croatia, I would stick with the 3-5-2. If we move to a back four, we have no FBs and we might get exposed like we did against Russia and it would be an expirimental formation in an important game all over again, so I say lets just stick to a 3-52 with Balzaretti over Giaccherini.

Against Spain, Balotelli and Cassano didn't have much service because our midfielders had a lot to deal with in trying to defend, and win the ball back which was not easy at all, so i mean we can't be too critical on Cassano and Balotelli (Mostly Balotelli), it was his first game in a major tournament, screwed up a few times, but did some nice things at the same time. Am I crazy for saying that he should start again with Cassano?

No you're not crazy as I would do the same but whatever the coach decides is fine by me.

I am not the biggest fan of either Cassano or Balotelli but it was clear that when those two were off, our possession game changed drastically. While Di Natale made excellent on his first touch, he hardly touched the ball afterwards. Same went for Giovinco. Cassano and Balotelli did a good job of coming back for the ball, being in position to receive it from the midfielders and being part of the possession game. Not the same during the spell when Giovinco and Di Natale were playing.

I don't know why everyone believes the 3-5-2 is such a defensive formation. It is the tactic that Juventus used a great deal this season, and we generated more shots and possession than any other Serie A team. It is the formation that this squad is best equipped for because it allows De Rossi and Pirlo to co-exist, and both play well. Why fix what isn't broken?

If it were me, I would use the same formation, and sub Giak for Balzaretti. Of course, if and when Barzagli is healthy, he should start in lieu of Bonucci. I would imagine that Prandelli doesn't change anything; if anything, maybe he gives Di Natale the start over Balotelli, but I imagine the guys we saw yesterday will be the focal points from this point forward.

If we can dominate possession and take our chances, that should be sufficient to get the three points which would virtually assure that we progress. Although I think we should win this game, Croatia always proves a difficult opponent, and they were pretty good against Ireland, getting a very positive result. This will be another tough game.

Abate- Bonucci - DDR - Chiello

Motta - Pirlo - Marchisio

Balo - Borini - Giakk

Is Ogbonna left footed? I know he plays as a central defender. For Juve, Barzagli played on the right, Bonucci in the center and Chiellini on the left of the 3-man defense. Is there any reason why Ogbonna should not play in that right center role?

I dont know if he is but he was tested there in practice last week

spot on

But I would still stick with the 3-5-2. Aside from Torres's two opportunities Italy looked very good defending and attacking in that module.

Torres's opportunities were not DDR's fault, bar possibly one where he over-committed. Again, why fix what isn't broken? We did well with the 3-5-2 against Spain who is, with all due respect, a better side than Croatia. Croatia will field a forward or forwards, but, bar Modric, their MF is less of a threat to us. If we could dominate possession against the Spanish for stretches, why can't we do better against Croatia?

I wouldn't make too much of Torres' chance or two. The midfield was gassed, made some sloppy turnovers, and they failed to track back. I still get frustrated at how few of our players can really go 90 minutes. You have to wonder what kind of conditioning they get??

I agree with others that say it's too early to give up on Balotelli as a starter. He's a real horse up front who does a nice job of tracking back. Falc is right that Cassano and Balo really helped our possession game.

Uaglio - Stop by your old stomping grounds and say hello.