Don Garber said today that 3 of the 4 expansion franchises are "already spoken for."

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by carnifex2005, Sep 11, 2013.

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  1. scott47a

    scott47a Member+

    Seattle Sounders FC; Arsenal FC
    Feb 6, 2007
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Oh boy.

    I think you actually are purposefully missing the point of the current round of expansion. It's not a mistake that the teams are being announced where they are announced and that the league is letting out info long before the teams play. TV contracts are up.

    MLS doesn't really need another Seattle/Portland, what it needs is people watching the TV broadcasts all across the nation (and the money that comes with higher ratings and a wider footprint). Atlanta is the single largest TV market not served by an MLS team.

    You say a team there will "struggle to achieve mediocrity." To which I say "even if you are right, so what?" Not every team can win every year. Someone has to be mediocre and someone has to be bad. Having good teams actually implies you have bad teams, doesn't it?

    Meanwhile MLS is still doing everything it can to model itself on the NFL, where every team has a chance and money doesn't decide champions - unlike MLB; and soccer in most of the world. If anything the structure helps even bad owners out of potential mediocrity (see Bengals, Cincinnati, and Revolution, New England).
     
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  2. The Devil's Architect

    Feb 10, 2000
    The American Steppe
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    These would be the same people that were going to build an Hockey Arena AND a Performance Hall with a soccer stadium ABOVE both of those venues, INSIDE the Silverdome?

    HA
     
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  3. MM66

    MM66 Member+

    Mar 9, 2009
    Brookline, MA
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    A) No, the Thrashers were not well supported. They were always in the bottom third in terms of attendance, even in their best years. By any reasonable definition of "well supported" the Thrashers failed. They were a running joke from the day they entered the league and no one's shedding tears now that they're gone.

    B) Apparently you've paid no attention the regular mockery the Braves get over their paltry attendance and half-hearted fans. They're currently 10th in the NL in attendance despite having the best record in baseball. They average 31k a game, not 45k. And you'll be able to get walkup tickets to playoff games this October. The Braves are one of the top reasons not to put a pro sports team in Atlanta. People there have been given an excellent franchise and their reaction is "meh."
     
  4. MM66

    MM66 Member+

    Mar 9, 2009
    Brookline, MA
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    I agree with you. I think it's a setup for a catastrophe. I'm just speculating on the lies Garber is going to have to tell himself to accept a Blank check.
     
  5. scott47a

    scott47a Member+

    Seattle Sounders FC; Arsenal FC
    Feb 6, 2007
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This isn't about Blank's check as much as it is about ABC/ESPN's check, NBC's check and Fox's check.
     
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  6. MM66

    MM66 Member+

    Mar 9, 2009
    Brookline, MA
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    - The purpose of any round of expansion should be to admit strong, new franchises into the league.

    - If local fans don't care about the product, they won't go to games let alone watch the league on TV. The MLS route to more TV money is by extending into the markets that most want a team, not by forced regionalism. A game in Portland is a lot better television than a Revs home game.

    - I suggest you look again at what MLS is doing. LA and Seattle are spending big bucks to construct superteams, and that competitive imbalance been VERY GOOD for the league's television profile.
     
  7. The Devil's Architect

    Feb 10, 2000
    The American Steppe
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If that was truly the case, then Seattle would still be in the USL
     
  8. The Devil's Architect

    Feb 10, 2000
    The American Steppe
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If he submits acceptable financials to MLS BoG, along with a wire transfer for the Expansion fee, they will.
     
  9. The Devil's Architect

    Feb 10, 2000
    The American Steppe
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I hope none of those cities get a team. One a scale of Hitler to Mexico with Hitler being the best and Mexico being the Worst, those four cities tie for Luis Hernandez.
     
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  10. Its about giving NBC,Fox, ESPN the potential eyeballs. Having the most populous region of the country without any teams doesnt help in contract negotiations. The moves to florida and georgia are being strategically done for that reason. So if they only average 15k a game big deal? Its no worse then like 7 or 8 other teams in the league.
     
  11. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I would tend to believe the former rather than the latter.

    If some guy in Wichita got approval for an SSS and submitted acceptable financials* to MLS BoG and a wire transfer for the expansion fee AND the BoG felt Wichita could somehow add to the overall success of the league from a variety of fronts, then MAYBE they would vote to put a team in Wichita. But maybe not.

    I'm not sure we're going to be going any smaller than Salt Lake City going forward. Regardless of SSS and financials (which, again, would have to be pretty optimistic), Wichita is smaller than Fort Myers, Florida and Allentown, Pennsylvania.

    The BoG hasn't made many bad calls in terms of league membership lately. The days - 11 years or so ago - when they were one interested investor shy of having one interested investor are long gone and the equation has changed. It's not as simple as having the means and the will anymore.





    *Let me posit here that I believe it would be unlikely to make MLS financials acceptable in a market the size of Wichita given where the league is going - not just where the league is today, but where it will be in 2020.
     
  12. OleGunnar20

    OleGunnar20 Member+

    Dec 7, 2009
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    i have to agree with this. local tv viewers will not be the deciding factor in better tv ratings/money. it is getting people NOT in MLS markets to watch games and you don't get that if the team in question is NER, FCD, COL, CLB, etc.

    dedicated, MLS centric ownership has proven overall to be the most successful; and the mid sized market where MLS teams can thrive and be a "big" player in the local sports scene have also thrived. non-MLS centric ownership (or as i like to call it red-headed stepchild MLS ownership) and teams in mega-markets where the MLS team is barely a blip on the sports radar have more often than not struggled.

    force feeding teams to cover TV markets and hoping you can create support out of whole cloth has also not been very successful ... whereas building on D2 (or in Philly's case pre-existing not tied to a team) very rabid support has tended to be successful.

    no one of these factors alone is predictive in a 1 to 1 way of the success or potential of an MLS market ... but i see ATL MLS owned by Blank falling on the "not usually successful" side of the ledger on many of the factors we know correlate fairly well with MLS top level success: MSA Demographics; Local Pro Sports Support; Pro Sports Team Clutter; MLS Centric Ownership; etc.

    and the idea you can chase TV markets by ignoring what the past decade has taught us as to what does and does not correlate with high level MLS success is stupid ... because Chicago and Boston are two huge TV markets and nobody; locally or nationally; watches those games because the teams and the fan support is decidedly mediocre. same will hold true for NYC2 and ATL and MIA and any other big tv market that ends up with an MLS team based on the MLS 1.0 paradigm which will more likely than not lead to very little success.
     
  13. scott47a

    scott47a Member+

    Seattle Sounders FC; Arsenal FC
    Feb 6, 2007
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Actually Seattle would have been the 14th team in the league, if you went by TV markets.
     
  14. kenntomasch

    kenntomasch Member+

    Sep 2, 1999
    Out West
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It ain't happening here, I can tell you. Won't be one of the next four. We have no place to play that makes sense.

    The Cardinals are not interested in being involved in MLS and you'd need their involvement to make UofP reasonable. And even then it's not very reasonable. And I don't believe any of the municipalities here are going to partner with someone - even if there were someone - wanting to plunk down a couple hundred mill for a retractable roof soccer stadium.

    The stadium situation might actually be worse in San Diego, where you have no viable option and no chance of getting municipal or state help to build one.

    Even though that meme is from 2000 and isn't valid?

    I am not seeing how that meme will be reinforced by a team in Miami. Even one that "isn't a real moneymaker" as if we haven't spent the last 17 years trying to get to the point where even a handful of teams are faux moneymakers.

    Jesucristo, between Miami this and Atlanta that and the Braves and the Falcons and the Dolphins Didn't Sell Out That Playoff Game and Beckham and Why Have This Market And Not This One and It's All About TV Eyeballs That Don't Actually Exist, I should have made an image that said "Expansion Talk Makes Me Dumber," not hot.
     
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  15. MM66

    MM66 Member+

    Mar 9, 2009
    Brookline, MA
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    TV execs aren't knuckle-dragging morons. Just being in a market to tick off a checkbox isn't going to part them from their cash. They will check to see if the market performs well.
     
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  16. scott47a

    scott47a Member+

    Seattle Sounders FC; Arsenal FC
    Feb 6, 2007
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here's a question for you, and I seriously would like to hear an answer: Which is more important having a super-passionate fan base in a small city like Winnipeg, or having more of a band-wagony fan base in some place like LA?

    I think it's pretty natural for MLS to think "hey, this guy wants in, has the money, agrees with our investor/operator structure, and represents a chance to fill an absolutely huge hole in our national marketing and exposure."

    Let's not forget that Seattle, when chosen, also represented a huge swath of the country - and a big TV market - underserved by MLS previously.
     
  17. ielag

    ielag Member+

    Jul 20, 2010
    Blank is paying what $750 million of this new stadium out of his own pocket and maybe another $75-100 million for an expansion fee, and people are worried he's not going to give an MLS team a lot of attention? Especially if he's considering paying a little more for a BC Place style inner roof set up, which I wouldn't doubt if MLS expressed that's what they'd like to see if a team played in the new stadium.
     
  18. MM66

    MM66 Member+

    Mar 9, 2009
    Brookline, MA
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    I think the NHL and NFL already answered your question for you. The NHL chose Winnipeg over Atlanta and the NFL does stellar business without a team in LA.

    The key differences with Seattle was the city had a long-standing history of soccer fandom and a soccer-focused ownership group.
     
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  19. OleGunnar20

    OleGunnar20 Member+

    Dec 7, 2009
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    well A. Winnipeg is a bit too boutique, there are limits and B. it would depend on which "bandwagon" market are we talking about .. what other factors that correlate with success do they have?

    i absolutely think Miami is a terrible MSA for MLS demographics wise, their local pro sports fan support is paltry (with that weather and beaches no wonder) and it is heavily saturated with other teams ... BUT if Becks and Claure were owners at least they would be MLS centric and then there is the TV thing ... so it might have some merits and i fully expect MLS to go to Miami ... it is sort of that kind of market you have to go to even if you don't think it will be a super success.

    but ATL is okay but not fantastic demographically, same sucky sports fan support, same heavily saturated but the talk is non MLS centric ownership (the most important factor imho); plus a maybe okay mabye not NFL stadium setup but yet a big TV market (not as big as Miami) but no real "sex appeal" to the market.

    so by that token i'd say no to ATL unless the stadium and ownership was different.

    now Minnesota is a good demographic market, still heavily saturated but doesn't have the taint of bad sports support ... but again i'd be against NFL ownership/stadium but if the MN United ownership with more investors or partnered with Wilf i might be less opposed.

    it is all about the mix of factors
     
  20. JoeCelt

    JoeCelt Member+

    Jul 7, 2012
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    Bosnia-Herzegovina
    21 - Orlando with new SSS
    22 - Miami with upgrade and roof on FIU stadium
    23 - Atlanta with new NFL stadium
    24 - Minneapolis with new NFL stadium
     
  21. OleGunnar20

    OleGunnar20 Member+

    Dec 7, 2009
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    the 750M has no bearing on how he would treat an MLS team ... he is spending that for the NFL team and would be doing so without an MLS team, so it is irrelevant.

    the $75-100M for the team is a drop in the bucket compared to the NFL team; it is not even 1 year of payroll so yes, even with that investment MLS would be a distant and largely marginalized property more likely than not ... Kraft and Hunt have spent at least 75-100M on their respective MLS teams over the years and don't give two craps about them in comparison to their bread and butter sports interests.
     
  22. SYoshonis

    SYoshonis Member+

    Jun 8, 2000
    Lafayette, Louisiana
    Club:
    Michigan Bucks
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yup. and they didn't did they? They also happen to own a lot of downtown real estate, and by all accounts know what they're doing.
     
  23. OleGunnar20

    OleGunnar20 Member+

    Dec 7, 2009
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    fyp
     
  24. jond

    jond Member+

    Sep 28, 2010
    Club:
    Levski Sofia
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #124 jond, Sep 13, 2013
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2013
    This is a contradiction to me. You say MLS doesn't need another Sea/Por, then at the same time say what MLS needs is more people watching across the nation, and by that I'm guess you mean more neutral fans. Well, Por/Sea are the types of teams which pull in the most neutral fans. Just splashing mediocre teams around the South East doesn't in itself increase the number of people watching nationally. Sure local fans will tune in, as they do for any number of markets but it takes more than that for fans outside those markets to tune in. Just because there's a team in Chicago or NE or DC doesn't make national/neutral fans tune in, nor will just putting a team in any number of markets. Could a Mia turn into the next Por? Maybe, but it's yet to be seen. And Mia fans are notoriously fair weather which lends itself to the stance than Miami for example would need to be another Por/Sea, yet that's exactly what you say MLS doesn't need. SJ/Philly just pulled 82K on ESPN2. Compare tv ratings of games including SEA/Por/LAG to games not including any of those three.

    And while ATL is a huge tv market, it's fans don't usually follow suit in attendance. Look at the Hawks.

    And I still fail to see how the parity model is good for ratings. Best ratings in MLS are for the biggest and best teams. Best ratings internationally across sports are for the super clubs. What helps the NFL get away with its model is it's far and away the top football league in the world. MLS isn't in that situation. Basing a league on parity where everyone can win and quality is intentionally kept lower than it could be to give everyone a chance is likely a major reason many fans in this country tune into the top 4 leagues and ratings haven't budged. Some fans keep saying the parity model is great, yet neutral fans are not tuning in when the average, evenly matched MLS teams face one another while they do tune in when an LA, Sea, or Por do play and it's less evenly matched.

    Sorry but I don't see how simply putting teams in ATL or Miami increases ratings nationally especially if you're arguing they don't need to be a Sea or a Por. It think that's exactly what they'd need to strive to be, at least Por/SKC. That should be the goal. Neutral/national fans aren't tuning in for much else currently. And can ATL/Miami turn into a Sea/Por? Maybe, but attendance wise those are two of the more questionable markets in this nation. We can all hope ATL/Mia or similar markets see fans pack the stadiums but it's just hope at this point. And Miami's best shot at that would be 3 DP's and turning itself into more of a super club, despite your stance that's not what MLS needs, and that implies going against the parity model which you think is great is actually the preferred route for a market like Miami. At least that's how I see it. Miami fans don't turn out for mediocrity.

    I'll also say another Kraft/Kroenke situation would not be good for MLS, wealthy owners with deep pockets who don't care to spend much and just consider MLS a hobby.
     
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  25. MM66

    MM66 Member+

    Mar 9, 2009
    Brookline, MA
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    San Antonio strikes me as a franchise in a position to duplicate the Montreal entry plan: great support in a second-tier league, large supporters group, expandable stadium, owner who gets this sport. However, the charity/community focus of the organization probably means it can't pay the MLS expansion fee.
     

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