Correlation between Population, GDP and other stats and the Ranking of World Cup Teams

Discussion in 'World Cup 2014: General' started by Iranian Monitor, Feb 9, 2014.

  1. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    And you think any of the European teams would have made a difference in WCs 30 or 50? It's actually a bigger difference the absence of Uruguay and Argentina at WCs 34 and 38. Then again, Argentine players collected the WC winner medals at both tournaments.
     
  2. MrOranjeBal

    MrOranjeBal Member

    Apr 7, 2009
    Club:
    AZ
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    It's a name. The name is likely of Scandinavian origin, but Sven Kramer is a Dutch speedskater (long track). Well, he is THE Dutch speedskater at the moment: multiple European, World and Olympic champion.
     
  3. Hayaka

    Hayaka Member+

    Jun 21, 2009
    San Francisco North Bay, Bel Marin Keys
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark

    Impossible to say.

    BTW, Argentina did compete at the 1934 WC. They went out in the first round.
     
  4. Rickdog

    Rickdog Member+

    Jun 16, 2010
    Santiago, Chile
    Club:
    CD Colo Colo
    Nat'l Team:
    Chile
    In your case, (I don`t want to offend you) it is a little bit of ignorance on your part.
    Paraguay at second round only achieved a draw against Japan, where a penalty kick definition was required in order to see whom passes to next round, but for everybody their game was a draw. At the same time, Uruguay defeated South Korea and won its right to be in quarters by defeating their opponent.

    More so, in next stage, Paraguay lost to Spain in regulation time, while Uruguay had a draw with Ghana, which afterwards required a penalty kick definition in order to see who gets through. At that point, Uruguay had achieved lots more than whatever Paraguay had achieved by then. Only afterwards came the pk definition, which decided whom of both went to semis, where Uruguay won that right.
    Uruguay did not beat Ghana, as they had a draw.
    A draw in quarters is lots more than a defeat in quarters.
    ;)
     
  5. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    Not really, since the defeat was to Spain who is not only miles better than Ghana but also better than the team Uruguay would eventually get eliminated by. Good point about Paraguay's somewhat fortunate advance over Japan, but Paraguay's draw was just so much tougher I don't see how getting a mere one round further is "lots better".
    Once in the final 4, Uruguay looked like a pretender among 3 legit contenders indicating that it was really the lucky draw that got them that far.
     
  6. Rickdog

    Rickdog Member+

    Jun 16, 2010
    Santiago, Chile
    Club:
    CD Colo Colo
    Nat'l Team:
    Chile
    :confused:
    Tell that to all of those teams that ended third in any given WC, and whom lost in a semifinal game against whom ended winning the WC. Ask them if they would have prefered to end as finalists, instead.
    Or
    I'll rephrase : tell all of those who ended as finalists and lost the final game, whom got there by beating in semifinals, the team that ended 4th, and as they got to the final only by beating a weaker team to give up their finalist medals to the team that ended third, as these last ones played in semifinals against a much worthy opponent, than the one that they faced at that instance.
    :rolleyes:

    here is another one (very cruel, btw) :
    Ask yourself, if you would've prefered that Argentina beat Sweeden in last match in group phase and by doing so, it were your team instead of them who passed to next phase in the 2002 WC. All that Sweeden achieved by having a draw that day was advance one more round than the one that Argentina reached.

    Of course ending at one stage better than another team is much more important.

    o_O
    They looked as a pretender, because they were a pretender.
    All semifinalists are pretenders until they lose next match, no matter how they got there, if they win both last games, they will be crowned as WC champions.

    C'mon man, you are killing me with these remarks...
    :p
     
  7. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Holland have a strong football tradition, and a good league, but they have punched above their weight because if you look at where Holland rates in populuation or GDP, they would not rate anywhere near where they rate now or have rated historically in football. Holland might still be (barely) among the top 20 by 2026, although they are unlikely to be as good as they have been since the 1970s.
     
  8. MrOranjeBal

    MrOranjeBal Member

    Apr 7, 2009
    Club:
    AZ
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    But they do rate as they rate in world football! And have done for some decades. Ergo, GDP and population size are largely irrelevant metrics when it comes to measuring the strength or quality of a nation's football. Like saying, if you look at the number of windmills in Holland, they should have been world champion at least twice by now.
    However, the quality/strength of football does not depend on the number of windmills!
    If a perceived patern of causality or a model does not fit reality, you'll find that the model is wrong. Reality will not adapt.
    Holland in your view only punch above their weight because your scale is not measuring the right property! Just like measuring brightness of the colour will tell you nothing about the quality of the car's engine!
     
    Pipiolo repped this.
  9. Gordon1995

    Gordon1995 Member+

    Oct 3, 2013
    The culture is the most important thing imo. Population also plays a part but not that much as the most players you can field on the field is 11, it is just that it allows you the select the best for each position through a more rigorous selection process due to the difference in talent pool. When Brazil has a strong culture and a large population, it is no surprise they do well. Youth developement by the country's FA is also important.
     
  10. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    And this last comment just shows as I suspected that you have no clue what you have been talking about, at least in respect to the early WCs.
     
  11. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Football culture is the most significant issue, especially when the sport is not so closely followed elsewhere. But once the sport becomes popular enough, and finds its own tradition in many different countries, that advantage will slowly begin to diminish. Especially when the countries at issue begin to form professional leagues and the other infrastractures to develop a steady crop of players. To be sure, football culture will remain an important factor but once the game is more popular worldwide, eventually the monopoly that once existed in this regard will no longer be applicable. Other factors will become comparatively more significant, in particular:

    (1) size of the player pool: all things being equal, the bigger the player pool, the more likely that you can find exceptional talents in that pool.

    (2) the athletic abilities represented in that pool: all things, in fact, aren't equal and some people are just better atheletes and have better potential than others.

    (3) organizational ability of a country, which determines how well or poorly a country identifies, develops, and utilizes the best players from its talent pool?

    In the latter category, as a subset, you have issues relating to youth programs, the strength of a country's league, as well as the politics and functioning of its football federation. This subset, however, is most closely indexed by a country's GDP.
     
  12. Gordon1995

    Gordon1995 Member+

    Oct 3, 2013
    N

    Not really, take Mexico for an example. They have the population and the culture, but surprisingly, they are behind nations like Portugal and Netherlands. In terms of GDP, there aren't really much seperating them from Brazil.
     
  13. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    The match against both Netherlands and Germany were close. In the semifinal match, Uruguay were missing their second best player of the tournament in Suarez, plus Lugano. Then Forlan had to leave in the first half, and you have a considerably undermined side.

    Third place matches are glorified friendlies, so it's not appropriate to make too many conclusions from them. However, note that the German right back should have been sent off for that crippling foul on Perez, and Forlan hit the post in the last play of the match which would have sent it into overtime.
     
  14. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    You can take a look at trends, not between Europe or South America versus Africa, Asia and North America, but within Europe or South America to dispel some of these conjectures:

    (1) size of the player pool: all things being equal, the bigger the player pool, the more likely that you can find exceptional talents in that pool.

    A quick comparison between, say Russia and unified Yugoslavia shows a significant difference in favor of the Slavs in terms of football quality, particular individual talents (Stojkovic, Djazic, Suker, Boban, Savicevic, Prosinecki, Mijatovic, Mihailovic, Modric versus Yashin, Dasaev, Bellanov and Arshavin). Similar love and tradition for football, similar GDP per capita, but Russia magnitudes bigger in population, size and influence. Still, the former Yugoslavian states have produced far more talents.

    (2) the athletic abilities represented in that pool: all things, in fact, aren't equal and some people are just better atheletes and have better potential than others.

    Could be true, let's leave it alone.

    (3) organizational ability of a country, which determines how well or poorly a country identifies, develops, and utilizes the best players from its talent pool?

    At face value, this statement should be certain, but there is hardly any difference in organizational ability between say, Chile and Uruguay, yet the latter have a far richer history of success in the sport. Tradition is not a factor here, as both Chile and Uruguay were with Argentina and Brazil, the initial participants of the South American international tournaments.
     
  15. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Before I respond to your point, let me first say that I am very proud of how well Iran has done in basketball (and even more so in volleyball and some other sports) despite a very late start to many of these sports. I say that because there was a time not very long ago when it was ridiculous to even imagine Iran competing against China in basketball. The gulf between Iran and China in basketball was greater than the gulf between China and say Uruguay in football. Yet, we bridged that difference in a short span of time and have won 3 of the last 4 Asian championships including the last one. We even won the Asian Championships in China, meeting the Chinese (with all their NBA stars) twice and beating them twice including in the final 70-52. Today, there isn't a team in Asia that doesn't lose to Iran by doube digit scores including China!

    But to get to your point, China's passion for basketball was ignited in a serious fashion the past 10-15 years even if they used to dominate the sport in Asia before just by virtue of the fact that pretty much no one else really played the game. Still, it is somewhat amazing that even during this short period, China has not managed to rank better than it does. Today, FIBA ranks China at #12 in the world (ironically above Iran which is ranked merely #20 due to the fact that China has earned a lot more points in the past under FIBA's ranking system) and that is actually a higher ranking than China merits right now. Yet, given the popularity of the sport in China and the number of players who are playing it there right now, who am I kidding: this period since Iran's surprise Asian championship in 2007 will be soon a thing of the past. There is no way China aren't going to not just back on top in Asia, but right up among the top 5-10 in the world by the time the billions of young Chinese kids who are now playing basketball grow up.
     
  16. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Chinese people in general aren't too tall, a major disadvantage in this game.
     
  17. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    You bring good examples that will each need to be considered, but there will always be some reason to explain the anamolies in this regard. In each case, the reason will also point to whether its due to a factor that will have lasting effect, or will become transient over time.
     
  18. Hayaka

    Hayaka Member+

    Jun 21, 2009
    San Francisco North Bay, Bel Marin Keys
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    Are you going to elaborate, or just leave it as the nothing post it is so far?
     
  19. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    No I won't, you can find out for yourself if you care enough for it, but you really should research a topic a bit more if you want to be taken seriously.
     
  20. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    On average, Chinese people may not be tall, but with 1.5 billion people, they have more tall people than Argentina or Iran have people period.
     
  21. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    The Chinese in general are not good athletes, they win lots of Olympic medals in sports that are very niche and lack a significant cultural imprint, hence by sheer size they can put themselves as competitors. It's different though with soccer, cricket, baseball or hockey.

    By the way, Argentina has beat the USA a few times in international basketball, I don't see China ever pulling that off.
     
  22. Hayaka

    Hayaka Member+

    Jun 21, 2009
    San Francisco North Bay, Bel Marin Keys
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    How lame. Talk about not deserving to be treated seriously. If you have a credible argument, make it. Not just hint at your mysterious, superior knowledge.
     
  23. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    I don't know about that. My general impression of the average Chinese is not favorable when it comes to his atheletic ability or potential, but the sheer number of people they have makes it counter-intuitive that they would suck as much as you suggest.

    In any case, other than football, the other sports you mention are pretty foreign to me! Except for baseball, which is foreign to most Iranians, but I am vaguely familiar with just by virue of the fact that I used to live in the US and it was unavoidable being exposed to the game living there. (I am also familiar with ice hockey, but I have never watched hockey on grass or wherever its played). Anyway, my point is that you do need to have some interest in a sport in a country before you can decide whether the lack of success has anything to do with any of the other factors!

    In team sports, within Asia, China are pretty good in volleyball (rank #18) and basketball (rank #12) and they may be alright in some other team sports I am not following.

    Talking about volleyball, incidentally, Iran has become very good at the game (back t0 back Asian champions and no one in Asia wins even a set against us these days and did alright in the world league too). Our success, I should mention, was partly thanks to a great Argentine coach (Julio Velasco) we had who was recently recruited by Argentina and left Iran. Velasco was a very good coach and quite popular in Iran both with the fans and the players. Even though he was still under contract with Iran, he was so popular that when his services were sought after by his home country, we decided to let him go with fond memories and didn't make a fuss about him finishing his contract.

    Give it time. You will be surprised.
     
  24. Sandinista

    Sandinista Member+

    Apr 11, 2010
    Buenos Aires
    Club:
    Racing Club de Avellaneda
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Doesn't the US team have lots of concessions when they play in international (FIBA World Cup or Olympics) competition, like they don't have to take doping tests or some of the substances (I believe muscle substances, i don't know, maybe steroids that they use in traning or such) that other team are forbidden to take the US can get away with it cause the NBA doesn't forbid them and they agreed to that if FIBA wants them to present their best players?

    Am i making all this up or is something like that true? Cause I know i heard sth like that before...
     
  25. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Btw, all this talk about China, I should be clear that I have not said they will become the best team in the world in football by 2026! I have merely ranked them around #15 or thereabouts by then, which is like how they rank in say basketball or volleyball etc.
     

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