Correlation between Population, GDP and other stats and the Ranking of World Cup Teams

Discussion in 'World Cup 2014: General' started by Iranian Monitor, Feb 9, 2014.

  1. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    I have not read Soccernomics, but have read reviews of it and am familiar with the work more or less.

    In terms of time frame, I feel I have the right timeline for what I am suggesting. Countries like the US and China have way too many people for me or anyone else to know if there aren't perhaps 50 or 100 truly talented players amongst the 10-16 years olds there who can't be further developed into exceptional players over the next 12 years. That doesn't mean, however, that Brazil will necessarily losing its place. They have what it takes to remain on top. But I do believe teams by 2026, teams like Uruguay will be remembered fondly as examples of how things were in the good ole days when small countries were able to challenge much bigger ones.

    As for tradition and history in football, it is very important. It is the only reason CONMEBOL in particular is were it is in football. But while that tradition and history is why CONMEBOL teams will still punch slightly above their weight, it won't be able to maintain the present order for as long as you are implying. At least no IMO.
     
  2. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    100 years ago, China didn't know anything about the game. They have taken a serious enough interest in the last 30 years and their substantial investment in the game is even more recent. In the meantime, China has changed a lot as well. Both in terms of how it rates economically as well as what it is doing in the football arena, investing rather heavily in the Chinese superleague.

    But I see we won't agree so its best we agree to just disagree.
     
  3. MrOranjeBal

    MrOranjeBal Member

    Apr 7, 2009
    Club:
    AZ
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Off topic: 'we' have just won another gold and bronze. Speedskating of course..
    ;)
     
  4. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    What about geography, it is an important factor as well. Uruguay lies next to both Brazil and Argentina, whom you still place very highly in the future, and relatively speaking, not too far from USA and Mexico, other contenders in your regards. This level of current competition, added to their tradition and quality, should still make them respectful although obviously more prone to generational variability due to their size.
     
  5. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Yes, that is definitely a comparative advantage. Enough to make Uruguay rank a lot higher than any other country with 3-4 million people without that advantage and without Uruguay's history and tradition, but not enough for them to consistently rank above 1.5 billion people in China in 10-20 years.
     
  6. MrOranjeBal

    MrOranjeBal Member

    Apr 7, 2009
    Club:
    AZ
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    We can agree on that :D
     
  7. Rickdog

    Rickdog Member+

    Jun 16, 2010
    Santiago, Chile
    Club:
    CD Colo Colo
    Nat'l Team:
    Chile
    Till now, it has lasted over 100 years without even showing the least of decrease. More so, it has grown as the rest of the gang, is catching up with those who took the lead almost alone in the past.
    Next 12 years, it is very likely that Conmebol will continue being where it actually is.
     
  8. guri

    guri Member+

    Apr 10, 2002

    shhh keep it quiet, you dont want to invite competition...
    I hear already the Brazilians are building ice skating tracks all over the place... with their GDP and their population in 10-20 years forget about it... you're history, man
     
    TigersOfAsia and MrOranjeBal repped this.
  9. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    Yes there are (obviously/d'uh). It's the #1 MDG.

    And gotta love @BocaFan cool pragmatism when saying these people have no future in anything. Some would call it inhumanity, I must say I am not surprised though :rolleyes:[/quote]

    It's called realism. If you're so poor that you're severely malnourished, obviously its not going to do any good to your future as a footballer. And income inequality is a major problem in the world. Simply stating that fact isn't "inhumane". It's the people causing that who are inhumane.
     
  10. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    I don't see an "R" in the thread title. Could you point it out to me. Thanks.
     
  11. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Why has the Netherlands punched above their weight? Which factors other than population work against them?

    Indeed, counting from the mid-60s the Netherlands is third/fourth now in the ELO-ranking. So doing very well consistency-wise, but rarely bringing the trophy home.

    I'd still reckon Africa to improve in the future.
     
  12. Sandinista

    Sandinista Member+

    Apr 11, 2010
    Buenos Aires
    Club:
    Racing Club de Avellaneda
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Well, as anyone would react. We look the other way :whistling:

    We have a rivalry with Brasil, England and Uruguay. That's it. With Brasil (the biggest rivalry) is purely a football rivalry. With Uruguay too, but it also has a sense of tradition, being the Río de la Plata derby. With England... well, you know. With Germany we may have something going on because of the last 2 WC (not to mention the other 2 WC finals where we met), but not really a rivalry... Of course we would love to get back at them, but we would much rather face Brasil or England...

    Captain Tsubasa was very popular in Argentina. Here they called it "Supercampeones" (Superchampions, i guess), and the kids loved it like DragonBall or Knights of the Zodiac. There are many professional players here that grew up watching Captain Tsubasa, btw...
     
  13. Hayaka

    Hayaka Member+

    Jun 21, 2009
    San Francisco North Bay, Bel Marin Keys
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    [quote="

    They play very tough, which is completely diferent, an issue that they have excelled over everybody else in the world, despite being a very small country with a very small population. If Uruguay had a size and a population of about 10 times their current numbers, they would probably be the undisputable top 1 team of the world, for decades, as no one is even near to their "garra", an issue admired and reasons why despite their small numbers, they manage to put their players in almost every corner of the world, where they are among the very best players. Now this doesn't happen by accident. They've won their place in history and continue uninterruptedly doing it, since the beginings of professional football till nowdays, where their younger players continue their legacy doing the same. Uruguayan football players, aren't players that anyone should look down at any time, because once you do, they will teach you a lesson or two.
    ;)[/quote]

    Oh please. Uruguay won the first World Cup at home against a small field, and then had their finest moment, beating Brazil in Maracana 64 years ago, albeit also at a WC with a stunted field. Since then they had a couple of semifinal finishes, but basically shut down at the WC after 1970, their 2010 renaissance notwithstanding. In fact, I would argue that over the last 40 years, Paraguay, with a comparable population size, has actually had the better WC showing, 5 Finals to 4. Even in 2010, I think Paraguay showed more, playing Spain almost to a standstill in the quarters while Uruguay blatantly cheated against Ghana to get to the semis.
     
    Christina99 repped this.
  14. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    So now it's ten years? :eek: I'd be very surprised if China manages one win at the WC by 2026.

    How do you explain that China still sucks at basketball, despite their investment and population, and where it is a sport with far less competitors internationally?

    @Iranian Monitor
     
  15. Rickdog

    Rickdog Member+

    Jun 16, 2010
    Santiago, Chile
    Club:
    CD Colo Colo
    Nat'l Team:
    Chile
    Actually they got their finest moment from 1924 till 1930, when they won both Olympic golds in Paris (1924) and Amsterdam (1928), both world championships recognized by FIFA as there weren't any WC's at the time, crowning it with the 1930 WC (first WC) played at their home. In 1950's Maracanazo (20 years later), they already had carved in gold their name in the worlds history books before of the time of that WC, and that brilliant performance only put things in order in regards to both of Italy's WC from 1934 and 1938.

    Till now, Paraguay has never even been semifinalists in any WC, so francly I don`t know where you get the idea that both of theirs performance at the WC, are comparable in any way. Maybe you could compare them to Argentina, as both have 2 WC's each and a couple of semifinals (actually Uruguay has 3), an issue we at the Conmebol forum are always doing from time to time, but Paraguay, as other Conmebol nations, are still way out of their league.
    At most you can compare them to us (Chile), as we've played only one semifinal in the WC, or to Peru whom have reached quarters two times in their history, but in no way to the big dogs of this kennel.

    Now if you like other small sized, relatively low population nations from 2010, whom offered a greater opposition to whom ended being WC champion, I would remind you of Switzerland, whom actually defeated them there. Greatness of a team doesn`t come only over one isolated achievement, but a series of them, and to your insatisfaction, Uruguay has lots of them .;)
     
  16. Hayaka

    Hayaka Member+

    Jun 21, 2009
    San Francisco North Bay, Bel Marin Keys
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    I said in the last 40 years.
     
  17. Rickdog

    Rickdog Member+

    Jun 16, 2010
    Santiago, Chile
    Club:
    CD Colo Colo
    Nat'l Team:
    Chile
    #92 Rickdog, Feb 12, 2014
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2014
    Well if that is the case, I'll only consider last 3 years, and Uruguay made it to the 2014 WC, while Paraguay didn`t, besides to the issue that Uruguay won last Copa America, precisely against Paraguay in the final game.
    :p

    If you really want to compare overall achievements, consider them all. Because by only considering part of it (the ones that most fits you), all you are doing is putting bias over any relationship between those you want to compare, which hold no objectivity.

    Btw, Paraguay doubles Uruguay's population and geographic size.
     
  18. Hayaka

    Hayaka Member+

    Jun 21, 2009
    San Francisco North Bay, Bel Marin Keys
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark

    There is a huge difference between the early World Cups and the more recent ones. Uruguay had a great run in the early days when the WC was a fairly closed affair (only four European countries at WC 1930, and only six at WC 1950). However, if Uruguay were all that you say they are their WC performance wouldn't have declined so much in the more competitive modern era, where probably even Paraguay has matched them or out-performed them.
     
  19. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    You can't rank teams based on when they were eliminated. Paraguay played Spain while Uruguay played Ghana. Sheer luck of the draw got Uruguay further. Reverse the draw and Uruguay would also lose in the QFs, probably by a more lopsided margin...
     
  20. MrOranjeBal

    MrOranjeBal Member

    Apr 7, 2009
    Club:
    AZ
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    It is only a matter of time until they find their Sven Kramer, Johan Olaf Koss and Eric Heiden hiding deep in the Amazon, waiting for their chance to sweep the 1500 meters.

    Then again, Norway is to speedkating what the OP envisions for the Dutch in football in just 3 cycles.... We better take notice...
     
  21. Sandinista

    Sandinista Member+

    Apr 11, 2010
    Buenos Aires
    Club:
    Racing Club de Avellaneda
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Sven? What is that, swedish?

     
  22. guri

    guri Member+

    Apr 10, 2002
    Rickdog: let me know if you need any help, but I don't think you do. Ignorance gets boring after a while, doesn't it?
    Yawwnnnnnnnm
     
  23. Rickdog

    Rickdog Member+

    Jun 16, 2010
    Santiago, Chile
    Club:
    CD Colo Colo
    Nat'l Team:
    Chile
    why not ?

    As the WC ends, FIFA does the same thing ranking teams as how they ended.
    It's not Uruguay's fault they got an easier route. In fact, if we would have had Argentina's draw, while Argentina would've got Chile`s draw in 2010, maybe we would have ended in quarters (and we sure wouldn't have lost by 4 goals to Germany), while Argentina would've got eliminated by Switzerland in group phase. :p
    The draw is how it is, bad luck to those who got bad draws and great to those who didn't. For everyone is the same and everyone simply has to live with it. Should we also consider last draw, the one for 2014 ?, we got fkd once again, and you guys got a free ride almost to the semi's. :rolleyes:

    It is as it is, can't do nothing about it.

    In 100 years no one will remember anything of this shit, and all that it will figure is that for the 2010 WC, Uruguay were 4th, while every other Conmebol team got eliminated at previous stages.
     
  24. Hayaka

    Hayaka Member+

    Jun 21, 2009
    San Francisco North Bay, Bel Marin Keys
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    "Btw, Paraguay doubles Uruguay's population and geographic size."

    Now it does (in population). Uruguay had a larger population than Paraguay up until the mid-1970s. Even as late as 2000, the difference in population was only about a million, and Paraguay has always had a much larger percentage of rural poor than Uruguay, cutting more deeply into it's pool of footballing talent.
     
  25. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    It's not about "fault" and "what can be done about it?". Its just dumb to say a team that beat Ghana in PKs performed better than a team that barely lost to Spain without factoring-in the level of opposition. I don't care if FIFA does a mickey-mouse ranking. It's just a gimmick of theirs anyway.

    I mean, okay, the finalist probably had a better tournament than some round of 16 loser, but in this case Uruguay & Paraguay performed about the same: won their groups, beat the teams they should beat, then lost to the first real good team they played.
    I'm just being logical.
     

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