Correlation between Population, GDP and other stats and the Ranking of World Cup Teams

Discussion in 'World Cup 2014: General' started by Iranian Monitor, Feb 9, 2014.

  1. Nani_17

    Nani_17 Member+

    Nov 3, 2011
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    It depends, if he/she is found in Iran, it will only be a matter of time before he/she destroys the world.

    If he/she is found in South America or Europe he will shrink every year until he/she becomes to weak to fight.
     
  2. MrOranjeBal

    MrOranjeBal Member

    Apr 7, 2009
    Club:
    AZ
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Regarding the Dutch: the factors you outlined have proven to be inconsequential for the last, say, 50 years. And certainly for the last 2 decades. Overall average position of Netherlands on the FIFA ranking since it began: 7. That average includes a rather severe dip around 1998/1999 to a position in mid-20s.

    As of 2000 the (EoY) ranking has been top 10 consistently. And the overall trend is not downward.

    I see no reason why all of a sudden things would change. And you have not given me any reason or cause as to why it will. There have always been nations with larger populations, higher GDP and a bigger/richer professional league.

    So maybe, actually, tradition, taking an interest in the sport, organising and teaching it to youngsters properly is more important than just those factors you seem to think will propell a country upwards toward football greatness as if by magic.

    There are countless examples of nations that do not fit into your paradigm. England (should do better), NL and Uruguay (should do worse), China, Russia, USA, India...

    Is is not so much how many people one has, or how much they earn. It's about what one does with the available people and funds.

    If there is a development that will lead to a decline in Dutch football's (NT) comparative strength, it is more likely because Dutch coaches are spreading our methods and visions across the world and because our youngsters get gobbled up by the big Money-machines that pass for football clubs nowadays, before they have been properly educated in the Dutch way of playing the game.

    NL below Iran, Australia, China, Turkey, South-Africa and Egypt in 20 years? Unlikely. Unless we loose interest in the sport completely.
     
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  3. MrOranjeBal

    MrOranjeBal Member

    Apr 7, 2009
    Club:
    AZ
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    The best football players in the world have been from a really poor background (or at least relatively really poor for their country) with football being their way out: Cruijff, Pele, Maradona, Zidane... Just to name a rather uninfluencial few...
     
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  4. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    That was basically my point: that GDP doesn't seem to be a big factor for the most part. But when you get down to the point of extreme poverty (ie < $1.25/day), then obviously you don't really have a future in anything. I seriously doubt the guys you listed had it that bad...
     
  5. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    GDP is important in the context of being significant to underwrite and support a top level league. Of course, that is not the only thing that matters. If there is no interest in the sport, the GDP is irrelevant.

    GDP per capita, on the other hand, is not that significant independently IMO.
     
  6. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Not to mention Argentina were all but maimed by absurd yellow cards to Orlaticoechea, Caniggia and Giusti, who all had to miss the final, plus Ruggieri was taken out after the first half ended for a charge by Voller against him. Big mistake by Bilardo in putting the awful Monzon instead of Sensini!
     
  7. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    P.S.

    As for the argument being made 50 years ago, I have responded to that issue in one my posts. Until the 1990s, the nations outside of UEFA and CONMEBOL with any of the requisite infrastracture to have a serious football team were either relatively uninterested in the game or had other issues that prevented them from properly investing in it. Once that investment and attention began, the process of bridging the difference takes time but will IMO begin to make a difference within the time frame I have mentioned.
     
  8. Rickdog

    Rickdog Member+

    Jun 16, 2010
    Santiago, Chile
    Club:
    CD Colo Colo
    Nat'l Team:
    Chile
    Unless he/she is practiced a gender test in order to establish as he/she can play in women football teams, where he fails the test.

    An issue recently discovered in Iran's women NT, where at least 4 men were found to be playing for Iran's women football NT, covered with Hijabs (shit, talking about uruguayans cheating. I knew and heard about the over aged players in some youth tournaments, but this one really got the nobel prize of cheating in football):thumbsdown:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...omen-footballers-to-undergo-gender-tests.html
     
  9. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    LAMO, France and USA over Argentina? China over the Netherlands?

    If your theory makes you feel good keep believing in it. But it's just an unsubstantiated fantasy.
     
  10. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    What the hell! Reminds me of the Billy Zane character in Titanic :D
     
  11. MrOranjeBal

    MrOranjeBal Member

    Apr 7, 2009
    Club:
    AZ
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Maybe not, but as long as there is a reasonably well-functioning scouting system in place to pick up talented youngsters, even some kid living on less than a dollar a day may become the next Pele.

    And, of course, that needs some funding from somewhere. In that respect a nations wealth does (could) play some part.
     
  12. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Most of us won't be able to accurately predict the specific rankings next year, much less in 2026! The issue isn't the exact order between these teams, but the general trends that I am suggesting we will witness.
     
  13. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    While there is a kernel truth to the story, I would suggest you rely on more authoritative media sources than the Telegraph.

    FYI, there is an issue in this regard between the medical comitteee of the IFF (Iranian football federation) and the women's federation and the issue revolves around when people suffering from sexual disorders and who have begun sex change operations will (if ever) be counted as women for purposes of playing for the women's national team or for the women's league? It has nothing to do with cheating per se and it has nothing to do with any current players in the women's national team either.
     
  14. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Does anyone really live on less than $1.25 a day nowadays?

    And gotta love @BocaFan cool pragmatism when saying these people have no future in anything. Some would call it inhumanity, I must say I am not surprised though :rolleyes:
     
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  15. Rickdog

    Rickdog Member+

    Jun 16, 2010
    Santiago, Chile
    Club:
    CD Colo Colo
    Nat'l Team:
    Chile
    cheating is cheating, man

    There's plenty of info regarding the issue in the net.
    The one in the Telegraph's is only one of them.
     
  16. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Yeah, but if there is "cheating" it is by individuals with the IFF medical committee the one to raise issues. Second, the players at issue (so-called 'trannies') will dispute the medical finding that they are not woman, although I am certainly not all that interested in their issue to want to comment further about it.
     
  17. MrOranjeBal

    MrOranjeBal Member

    Apr 7, 2009
    Club:
    AZ
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Then why muddy the waters with a rather specific top 20?

    I agree that the US may rise to (more) prominence in the next 10-30 years, but that (to me) is caused by: more exposure to the game, changing demographics and the fact Americans love sports and want to be the best in everything. Not because their population is growing or their wealth is increasing.
    Wealth may even be a negative influence as it allows kids to do stuff they need money for, like computer gaming, ice hockey, going to a movie etc. Poor kids create a ball from anything, put 4 stones on the ground and play football.
     
  18. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    First, when did I say the rise by the US will be due to "their wealth" rising or population growing? They are already #1 in GDP and have a large population. The reason they will rise is because since the 1990s, they have begun to take a more active interest in the sport and, having the #1 GDP and large population, they can climb up in time.

    Second, the exact same thing, but not to the exact same degree, can and will happen with other countries whose place in football is not commensurate with their overall rankings in the underlying indexes at issue.

    Third, I think I was clear I wasn't trying to give specific rankings but general trends in my message. But giving the trends some concrete numbers probably illustrates the point a lot more quickly than what I had done earlier just describing the trend.
     
  19. MrOranjeBal

    MrOranjeBal Member

    Apr 7, 2009
    Club:
    AZ
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Cheating is cheating, obviously. But when does it become cheating.... That is the question.
     
  20. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    You really think the Chinese will play better football than the Dutch or the Uruguayans within 20 years?

    @Iranian Monitor
     
  21. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    If you ask the question based on how things are right now, obviously the answer is no. But I see no reason why China, with 1.5 billion people, and with a professional league which it has been investing in lavishing, can't over a period of 20 years, develop enough players to overtake a country whose entire population doesn't even constitute the fractions to round off estimates of China's population. Although it is incredible that it has even taken China this long to find 11-23 good players, I think it is nearly impossible to believe they won't be able to find them in 20 years.
     
  22. Rickdog

    Rickdog Member+

    Jun 16, 2010
    Santiago, Chile
    Club:
    CD Colo Colo
    Nat'l Team:
    Chile
    In here they talk about it, as only once the sex change has been fully completed, those who have practiced it may return to full football activity.

    http://www.womenssoccerunited.com/p...-national-football-team-forced-to-have-gender

    So for whomever has not completed the process, it is cheating
    Whom has not even started the process of sex change, is cheating

    It is nor nothing that those who failed the tests, were afterwards banned by the same IFF.
     
  23. gaucho16

    gaucho16 Member

    Jul 2, 2012
    To the OP:

    While your general beliefs are generally correct in that GDP and population play a factor and may play more of a factor in the future, you seem to be making 2 mistakes:

    1. You are undervaluing soccer culture and history
    2. You are predicting that the shift towards GDP and population playing a role will happen WAY TOO SOON
    2026 is only 12 years away. Neymar will be 34 then and may still be on the Brazilian team (albeit unlikely). Most of the players playing in that tournament are already 14-15 years old. Do you really think China and the US have players currently in their pipeline that will put them in 16th and 3rd respectively?

    I recommend you read Soccernomics if you haven't already. It seems like it would be right down your lane of interest as they discuss how GDP, population, and soccer history influence teams' success. They predict the US, Turkey, Japan, and Iraq all have bright futures in the international game. But even a bright future may take 30-40 years to realize.
     
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  24. MrOranjeBal

    MrOranjeBal Member

    Apr 7, 2009
    Club:
    AZ
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    You imply that the (rising/risen/high) GDP and a large population, plus starting or having a professional league, are the reason why nations whos current rankings are below par (compared to what? what is On Par?) will be able to rise in the rankings.

    I say, and current rankings support that, that there is no evidence that a large population, or high GDP, or even a strong league are decisive factors. The way nations use available funds, focus on what to achieve, are able to translate that into a national team psyche and are able to stick to the plan on the pitch, is more important. Obviously, you need some funding and some people, too.
     
  25. MrOranjeBal

    MrOranjeBal Member

    Apr 7, 2009
    Club:
    AZ
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands


    They haven't in the last 100 years, why would the next 20 be different? Because there are more Chinese? Because they have more money?

    Except for a few notable exceptions, one does not just find the finished product "good player", one finds a willing, talented prospect (more than one preferably) and then train them. They could have done so already. If they wanted, or knew how to... They've sent rockets into space. They've built airplanes. And built giant walls. And have more concert pianists than the entire Dutch population. They just liked table tennis and badminton better.
     

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