Correlation between Population, GDP and other stats and the Ranking of World Cup Teams

Okay, I guess we have now covered the entire spectrum of possible influences: from history and tradition, to population, GDP, organization, to athletic attributes in the pool of players, to street football and now even the water in the Uruguay river and some spa in Belgium!

 

Okay, lets now imagine we are ranking the teams in 10-20 years from now?

Internationally, which sides will see the greatest improvement in how they rank in this period? Which new sides will be among the elite teams say for the 2026 World cup? Which traditional powers will no longer be among the ranks of the elite? Within the various confederations, what will be the most significant and noteworthy changes in how different teams rank?

Here is my stab at these question, looking into my crystal ball using the various criteria that I think are most relevant.

Internationally, Brazil and Germany should be able to still rank among the elite in football. By 2026, the Americans will, however, very likely have worked themselves up among the top 10 teams in the world as well. They may even rank among the top 5. Spain, Argentina, Italy, France, and England will still be either in the top 10 or thereabouts. But unless things are really messed up politically in Nigeria, they should by then comfortably rank among the top 10 as well. They have all the ingredients, from population, to the atheletic talent base, to history and tradition, and even economic resources, to do much better than they have. While I hope this is not the World Cup that will begin their climb up the ladder, they will be climbing up that ladder pretty soon.

Among Asian teams, Japan and South Korea will solidify their place in football among the top 20 teams in the world, doing better occasionally and worse at other times. But I don't think they have quite the talent base to comfortably join the top 10, although they might. Unless politics intrudes more than it has already, Iran will definitely see itself propelled into a position at least similar to Mexico, carving out a clear place among the top 20 teams in the world for itself. Iran has the ingredients to do much better than it has and its relative success in other team sports it has begun to invest in (basketball, volleyball, etc), along with all the demographic, economic and other factors I have mentioned in this thread, indicate that Iran should rank among the top 20 teams in the world in the near future. In the meantime, however, China should be able to rise enough to join the top teams in Asia and rank among the top 20 in teams in the world as well. In fact, given their population, and the investment they are making into the sport, it is not entirely inconceviable that China might even rise higher and find itself among the top 10 teams, although for whatever reason, the Chinese have never shown that talented in football. India will definitely improve its position within Asian football and rank among the top 10 in Asia, but I don't see them rising above that or making much a mark internationally.

All in all, while football will always reserve a few spots for surprise teams that might occasionally rise and then quickly fall above the rank they would earn on a consistent basis, by 2026, the top 20 internationally to me will include 4 teams from Asia (China, Japan, South Korea, Iran); it will continue to have 2 teams from CONCACAF (USA, Mexico); a few teams (2-3) from Africa, in particular Nigeria. That means that perhaps 10-12 teams will still come from UEFA and CONMEBOL, but I am sure not more than that, while I see Turkey becoming an established power within UEFA by then (top 5-10).

 

The cycles will begin to show differently in 10-20 years time, although not entirely different. The 4 you mentioned might still be considered among the elite, although its quite conceivable that one or 2 of them will find themselves slowly at a lower position (among the top 10-15 still, but not higher).

In my mind, however, UEFA will see its share of top 50 teams drop dramatically. This is clear to me. Similarly, I think CONMEBOL's 2nd tier will find themselves rank somewhat lower than they rank now. Perhaps as many as half of the teams in the top 20 will NOT be from UEFA and CONMEBOL, whereas today if you look at FIFA's rankings there are only 2 teams from outside of UEFA and CONMEBOL in the list of the top 20 teams in the world. (The same is true with ELO and SPI as well).

 

I see us quickly descend into the past, while I was hoping we can look at the future in this thread!

For me, the so-called "modern era" in football which began with say the 1994 or 1998 World Cup, is entering its final stages. This World Cup, in Brazil, may very well be the last one in this stage, and a fitting one at that, which saw a continuation of the dominance of the traditional powers and CONMEBOL/UEFA in football while the lesser confederations where merely planting the seeds for their future emergence as serious powers in football to be reckoned with. Thus, while the "modern era" coincided with the emergence, economically, of various regions to positions of parity or near parity with Europe, and also saw the inauguration of professional football leagues around the world (MLS, J-League, Chinese super league, Iran's pro league etc), the new era will see these developments translate to more lasting results on the football field.

For me, this new era will begin with the 2018 World Cup as a transitional one but by 2022 and 2026, there will be a new order in world football.

 

To add to what I had posted, I wouldn't be suprised if the list of top 20 teams before World Cup 2026 looked a lot more like the one below than the one now:

1- Brazil
2- Nigeria
3- USA
4- Germany
5- France
6- Argentina
7- England
8- Mexico
9- Italy
10-Spain
11- Japan
12- Turkey
13- South Korea
14- Russia
15- Iran
16- China
17- South Africa
18-Colombia
19-Australia
20-Egypt

 

As I have said, I consider we are at the latter stages of an era in football and after a short transition, we will enter a new era soon. By 2026 I think the new era will take shape and a new order will emerge that will see an African team like Nigeria propel itself among the top teams in the world, while there will be nearly half a dozen teams from the AFC in the top 20 and I see both the US and Mexico move up a full grade and join the top 10.

You are entitled, of course, to both predict and wish otherwise, but my prognosis is based mostly on the factors I have discussed in this thread: the confluence of population, GDP, development of football leagues, and in the case of African teams, sheer athletic talent, catching up with the historical advantages enjoyed by CONMEBOL and UEFA.

 

The future hasn't arrived and you are entitled to think as you wish. But when you say there hasn't been any correlation in the past between these factors and success in the game, lets take the issue step by step and see if you can follow.

First, it is obvious that you can have a large population and the biggest GDP and, yet, if very few people pay attention to football in your country, you aren't going to excel in the sport. Just because the US had a large population and a huge GDP didn't mean it would be really any good in football until it began to take more interest in it. Once they start taking such interest, they won't catch up immediately either. It will take its time, with various things marking their progress. What applies to the US applies to others, with the scales adjusted based on the totality of factors at issue.

Second, one of the main instruments that will help emphasize the differences in population and GDP into building both a better organization and developing a wider base of talent, is having a strong professional league. Of course, the latter requires that their be a population who is interested in the sport but the two can sometimes work hand in hand. There is also a frame which is required to pass before the fruits of a professional league begin to have a noticeable impact internationally. Until very recently (the 1990s), however, outside of Europe, there were few countries with established professional leagues. That began changing only recently, and the impact of that change will not be immediate but will take some time. The MLS, the J-League, the K-League, the Chinese Super League, as well as many others which were established only over the past 20 years or thereabouts, will have their ups and downs and but overtime they will produce a plethora of good players and coaches who will add a lot to the football abilities of these countries. How long will that take? We are seeing the benefits already, but its a process and what is already evident will clearly be even more evident in 10-15 years. The records from a past that was based on how countries with no professional football leagues and without the other structures that had developed in countries with some tradition in the game, is not going to repeat itself quite the same way.

Finally, while S.America enjoys 2-3 comparative advantages, specifically as it relates to history, tradition, passion for the game, and the fact that its members all play one another regularly and improve by playing even the best teams in world regularly in that process, overtime those advantages don't appear sustainable to make as a much of a difference for the smaller S.A countries. What is even more clear to me, however, is that Europe (with its aging population and declining comparative advantage in organizational and financial issues) will no longer have a such dominant position when it comes to the number of countries it can boast among the top 50 in football.

 

The Dutch might make the top 20, but they have punched above their weight when you look at the factors I have outlined, and overtime they will probably decline in comparative strength. Teams like CIV might make it up among the top 20 in some periods of time, but they don't have the combined population/GDP and professional league and will have to rely merely on some of the athletic advantages that aren't exclusive to CIV and can very well be found in some other places looking into the future.

 

They can be considered, but I don't think they can reliably be expected to be among the top 20 teams by 2026.

Seriously, even though I don't like their manners nor their team's reputation for playing dirty, I have to say that they are a remarkable story. In fact, it is precisely their small population which make Uruguay's record so impressive.