CONCACAF Qualifying For World Cup 2014 Prediction Contest: Hexagonal

Matchday 9 had a total of 149 points from score predictions which is the highest so far. Here are everybody's points (out of 12), correct result predictions, and exact score predictions for Matchday 9:

Tied 1. drt2k3: 10, 3, 2 (exact scores for HON-CR and USA-JAM)
Tied 1. zenryan: 10, 3, 1 (exact score for USA-JAM)
Tied 1. PanchoM: 10, 3, 1 (exact score for USA-JAM)
Tied 1. Dr. Gamera: 10, 3, 1 (exact score for MEX-PAN)
Tied 1. SocaWarrior23: 10, 3, 1 (exact score for USA-JAM)
Tied 1. kman1456: 10, 3, 1 (exact score for USA-JAM)
7. mclip_66: 9, 3, 1 (exact score for USA-JAM)
Tied 8. EvanJ: 8, 3, 0
Tied 8. Boris_B: 8, 3, 0
Tied 8. ChaChaFut: 8, 3, 0
Tied 8. PARS: 8, 3, 0
Tied 12. IASocFan: 7, 2, 1 (exact score for USA-JAM)
Tied 12. Revolt: 7, 3, 0
Tied 12. Catracho_Azul: 7, 3, 0
Tied 12. ja2ny: 7, 2, 1 (exact score for MEX-PAN)
Tied 16. barnabyjonez: 6, 2, 1 (exact score for USA-JAM)
Tied 16. blacksun: 6, 2, 1 (exact score for USA-JAM)
18. TrueCrew: 5, 2, 0
19. jagum: 3, 1, 0

The means were 7.84 points, 2.63 correct results, and 0.63 exact scores. 11 out of 19 people (57.9%) scored above the mean. The median was 8.

Here are the cumulative score prediction results out of a possible 108 points with everybody's points, correct results, and exact scores:

1. Revolt: 51, 16, 5
Tied 2. SocaWarrior23: 49, 15, 4
Tied 2. kman1456: 49, 15, 4
4. PARS: 46, 15, 3
5. mclip_66: 45, 13, 7
6. Dr. Gamera: 44, 14, 2
7. drt2k3: 41, 14, 3
Tied 8. zenryan: 40, 13, 2
Tied 8. blacksun: 40, 12, 5
Tied 8. Boris_B: 40, 13, 4
Tied 8. ChaChaFut: 40, 13, 2
Tied 8. TrueCrew: 40, 13, 3
Tied 8. jagum: 40, 13, 3
14. EvanJ: 39, 13, 2
Tied 15. barnabyjonez: 36, 11, 4
Tied 15. PanchoM: 36, 10, 6
17. Catarcho_Azul: 35, 12, 3
18. ja2ny: 33, 10, 3
19. IASocFan: 32, 10, 3

The means were 40.84 points, 12.89 correct results, and 3.58 exact scores. The median was 40.

In the overall (all rounds) standings, I can start awarding points for standings ranks now that first and sixth places have been clinched. Nobody predicted USA to finish first and Jamaica to finish last. Here are the Top 5 out of a possible 78 points along with the people's ranks before Matchday 9:

1. Dr. Gamera: 46.94 (was second)
2. kman1456: 46.69 (was fourth)
3. EvanJ: 45.61 (was sixth)
4. drt2k3: 45.28 (was first)
5. blacksun: 43.04 (was fifth)

Factoring in standings rank predictions made the gap from first to fifth increase from 1.58 to 3.88.

 

I was looking at Matchday 10 scenarios for the top three predictors so far. kman1456 will score more than Dr. Gamera in points for how many points off in the standings you were regardless of what happens, but if the standings ranks remain the same then Dr. Gamera and I will both gain 5 points on kman1456 from the standings ranks component. Costa Rica will finish in the top three and Honduras is likely to finish in the top three. kman1456 was one of four people to predict Costa Rica and Honduras to both finish in the bottom three. Dr. Gamera and I each predicted Mexico to win the group by 11 points while kman1456 predicted Mexico to win the group over USA on goal differential. The standings rank predictions component treats all predictions of Mexico winning the group equally.

 

Here are the Matchday 10 score predictions out of a possible 12 points with your points, correct results, and exact scores in that order (all the exact scores were for CR-MEX):

1. TrueCrew: 7, 2, 1
Tied 2. PanchoM: 6, 2, 1
Tied 2. mclip_66: 6, 2, 0
Tied 2. Revolt: 6, 2, 0
5. blacksun: 5, 2, 0
Tied 6. SocaWarrior23: 4, 1, 1
Tied 6. jagum: 4, 1, 1
Tied 8. zenryan: 3, 1, 0
Tied 8, kman1456: 3, 1, 0
Tied 8. Catracho_Azul: 3, 1, 0
Tied 11. EvanJ: 2, 1, 0
Tied 11. barnabyjonez: 2, 1, 0
Tied 11. drt2k3: 2, 1, 0
Tied 14. IASocFan: 0, 0, 0
Tied 14. Dr. Gamera: 0, 0, 0
Tied 14. Boris_B: 0, 0, 0
Tied 14. ChaChaFut: 0, 0, 0
Tied 14. PARS: 0, 0, 0
Tied 14. ja2ny: 0, 0, 0

The averages were 2.79 points, 0.95 correct results, and 0.21 exact scores. 10 out of 19 people (52.6%) scored above the average. The median was 3.

Here are the final Hexagonal score predictions out of a possible 120 points with your points, correct results, and exact scores in that order:

1. Revolt: 57, 18, 5
2. SocaWarrior23: 53, 16, 5
3. kman1456: 52, 16, 4
4. mclip_66: 51, 15, 7
5. TrueCrew: 47, 15, 4
6. PARS: 46, 15, 3
7. blacksun: 45, 14, 5
Tied 8. Dr. Gamera: 44, 14, 2
Tied 8. jagum: 44, 14, 4
Tied 10. drt2k3: 43, 15, 3
Tied 10. zenryan: 43, 14, 2
12. PanchoM: 42, 12, 7
13. EvanJ: 41, 14, 2
Tied 14. Boris_B: 40, 13, 4
Tied 14. ChaChaFut: 40, 13, 2
Tied 16. barnabyjonez: 38, 12, 4
Tied 16. Catracho_Azul: 38, 13, 3
18. ja2ny: 33, 10, 3
19. IASocFan: 32, 10, 3

Divide the first number above by 6 to get your score out of 20% of the overall competition.

The averages were 43.63 points, 13.84 correct results, and 3.79 exact scores. 9 out of 19 people (47.4%) scored above the average. The median was 43.

Edit: Here's more.

The amount of points you were off in the standings for the six teams combined was worth 10% of the total competition. The best person automatically got 10, the worst person automatically got 0, and everybody else got in between:

1. TrueCrew: 10.00
2. Revolt: 9.23
3. SocaWarrior23: 7.69
4. ChaChaFut: 7.31
5. zenryan: 6.92
Tied 6. EvanJ: 6.54
Tied 6. mclip_66: 6.54
Tied 6. kman1456: 6.54
9. Boris_B: 5.38
10. PanchoM: 5.00
Tied 11. barnabyjonez: 4.62
Tied 11. blacksun: 4.62
Tied 11. Dr. Gamera: 4.62
Tied 11. Catracho_Azul: 4.62
Tied 11. PARS: 4.62
16. IASocFan: 4.23
17. drt2k3: 1.54
18. jagum: 1.15
19. ja2ny: 0.00

The average was 5.32 and 9 out of 19 people (47.4%) scored above the average. The median was 5.00

Here are how many points out of 15 everybody got for predicting the standings ranks (all of these numbers are mutiples of 0.5):

1. EvanJ: 9.0
2. Dr. Gamera: 8.5
Tied 3. Revolt: 8.0
Tied 3. TrueCrew: 8.0
Tied 5. ChaChaFut: 6.5
Tied 5. barnabyjonez: 6.5
Tied 5. mclip_66: 6.5
8. PanchoM: 5.0
Tied 9. SocaWarrior23: 4.5
Tied 9. blacksun: 4.5
Tied 9. IASocFan: 4.5
Tied 9. zenryan: 4.5
Tied 13. kman1456: 4.0
Tied 13. jagum: 4.0
Tied 13. Boris_B: 4.0
Tied 13. PARS: 4.0
17. Catracho_Azul: 3.0
18. drt2k3: 1.5
19. ja2ny: 0.0

The average was 5.08 and 8 out of 19 people (42.1%) scored above the average. The median was 4.5

 

Here are the scores for the three components of the Hexagonal combined out of a possible 45 points:

1. Revolt: 26.731
2. TrueCrew: 25.833
3. EvanJ: 22.371
4. mclip_66: 21.538
5. SocaWarrior23: 21.025
6. ChaChaFut: 20.475
7. Dr. Gamera: 20.447
8. kman156: 19.205
9. zenryan: 18.590
10. barnabyjonez: 17.448
11. PanchoM: 17.000
12. blacksun: 16.615
13. PARS: 16.282
14. Boris_B: 16.052
15. IASocFan: 14.064
16. Catracho_Azul: 13.948
17. jagum: 12.487
18. drt2k3: 10.205
19. ja2ny: 5.500

The average was 17.675 and 9 out of 19 people (47.4%) scored above the average. The median was 17.448.

I'll post the final overall standings later.

 

Thanks to USA's last two goals, I won the contest. Dr. Gamera predicted Panama 2-1 USA and would have won if it had ended that way. Here are the final standings with your points, what combination of rounds you predicted (1, 2, 3, and/or 4), and what percent of the competition you predicted:

1. EvanJ: 57.48, 1, 2, 3, 4, 100%
2. Dr. Gamera: 56.55, 1, 2, 3, 4, 100%
3. kman1456: 53.73, 1, 2, 3, 4, 100%
4. SocaWarrior23: 53.63, 1, 2, 3, 4, 100%
5. ChaChaFut: 51.58, 2, 3, 4, 98%
6. blacksun: 51.49, 1, 2, 3, 4, 100%
7. Catracho_Azul: 50.79, 1, 2, 3, 4, 100%
8. IASocFan: 49.70, 2, 3, 4, 98%
9. barnabyjonez: 48.76, 1, 2, 3, 4, 100%
10. drt2k3: 47.15, 1, 2, 3, 4, 100%
11. jagum: 43.74, 1, 2, 3, 4, 100%
12. zenryan: 38.28, 1, 3, 4, 73%
13. Revolt: 37.37, 3, 4, 71%
14. Boris_B: 33.15, 2, 4, 72%
15. PanchoM: 32.92, 3, 4, 71%
16. perspixx: 31.90, 1, 2, 3, 55%
17. TBR (was TheGift): 30.68, 1, 2, 3, 55%
18. Popol Vuh: 30.41, 1, 2, 3, 55%
19. TrueCrew: 26.63, 1, 4, 46.6% (predicted one aggregate series in Round 1 too late so it isn't a whole number)
20. mclip_66: 22.74, 1, 4, 47%
21. ja2ny: 22.22, 3, 4, 71%
22. Cody667: 20.53, 1, 2, 29%
23. winster: 18.79, 1, 2, 29%
24. JYDA: 18.38, 2, 27%
25. ZeekLTK: 18.17, 3, 26%
26. devioustrevor: 17.53, 2, 27%
27. PARS: 17.48, 1, 4, 47%
28. desertfox2: 16.81, 1, 2, 29%
29. Ironkick14: 16.49, 3, 26%
30. gettysburg32: 16.12, 1, 2, 29%
31. DLee: 15.58, 2, 27%
32. Alex Velasquez: 15.55, 3, 26%
33. thedragonrik58: 14.62, 3, 26%
34. G Dawg: 14.40, 3, 26%
35. icii: 14.00, 3, 26%
36. Latin Pride: 2.00, 1, 2%
Tied 37. ceezmad: 1.60, 1, 2%
Tied 37. El Nino Orgulloso: 1.60, 1, 2%
Tied 37. faiyez: 1.60, 1, 2%
Tied 37. sanon74: 1.60, 1, 2%
Tied 37. USOutlaw16: 1.60, 1, 2%
Tied 42. City Dave: 1.20, 1, 2%
Tied 42. degrees: 1.20, 1, 2%
Tied 42. Matt121: 1.20, 1, 2%
Tied 42. mcruic: 1.20, 1, 2%
Tied 42. NMMatt: 1.20, 1, 2%

The average for the nine people who predicted every round was 51.48. 5 out of 9 people (55.6%) scored above the average. The median was 51.49. The average person attempted 46.36% of the competition and earned 24.38 points, which is 52.59% person of what the person attempted.