Hmmm... back to my records.... It looks like I rated her as a "7" in strength. I really didn't have much to go on except that she was a local high school all-league player and on a strong team, but the biggest plus was her ID camp experience with the the Canadian U-20. So, on the Portland 2013 class, I rated her strength as roughly equivalent to Ellie Boon and a notch above Kayla Elmer and Ariel Viera, but a notch below Danica Evans, Madison Hall, and 2 notches below Allison Wetherington. As you well know, players rankings are a tough business when one has never seen the individual players on the field. Consequently one can get it wrong some of the time, especially if the player has more experience and accolades than I can easily find on line. Further, once these kids get to college some blossom and shine while others unexpectedly fade. So with this strong Portland class, anyone with with a "6" or better strength ranking from me could easily rise to the occasion and perform well -especially in the early season when the coach is open to experimentation trying to get the right combinations figured out. Relative strengths will be much clearer near the end of the season when the flash in the pan and the nuggets (to mix metaphors) are all identified Why do you ask?
I asked because I've seen her play in one pre-season game and the Pilots' two regular season games against Marquette and Oregon. She entered the Marquette game with 30 minutes left (for Ellen Parker, minor injury) and played attacking mid the balance of the game. Against Oregon, with Parker out for the game, she played outside mid for most of the game and more of a central attacking mid towards the end of regular time and through overtime (93 minutes overall). She has played much better than I had anticipated. I started wondering where she stacked up in your process against some of the others. I thought asking might get me some insight on how the "incoming class" ranking process works. As you know, one of my interests has been in the extent to which the incoming class rankings correlate with performance. I believe that historically, the Pilots generally have outperformed their class rankings -- not to say that they haven't had some good incoming classes. I've been wondering if that's attributable to good coaching (as distinguished from recruiting), to recruiting to fill specific needs rather than recruiting just to get the highest accolade group, luck, or recruiting to a particular style of play since the Pilots do have a particular style, or something else. Using Viera as an example, she's playing left defender in the Pilots' system, which demands left defenders with speed who can overlap throughout the game and who can cover large amounts of territory during the game. I think she's played every minute so far and has done well so far. FC Portland is a club here in Portland, started by Clive Charles and staffed by former Pilots players. They teach their players the same system the Pilots use. Viera is an FC Portland product. So is Kendrick. So, they are coming into a system they already know. I guess this is one of the intangibles that is almost impossible to measure -- along the lines of, which are the best players for the particular system. I think your comments about watching the entire season are good ones. Many top level -- meaning high accolade -- players should be able to adapt to an unfamiliar system over the course of a season. Lesser players might not be able to do that.
Wetherington is out with an injury for the moment but hopefully will be ready soon. Hall is not playing below expectations. She started against Marquette, but she and Amanda Frisbee had a head collision in the first half, and Hall had to get three staples in her head. She played relief in the next game, against Oregon, but likely wasn't ready for full time yet. Viera is an interesting case -- second highest goal scorer ever for Oregon high schools (Tiffeny Milbrett is first) -- but played left side defender for FC Portland. I have the feeling she is a player who fits really well into the Pilots system, so has a lot of value for the Pilots that others might not see. Of course, with all of these players -- as well as the top frosh for other teams -- time will tell.
Has Portland really outperformed their class ranking since 2010? In every season since, Garrett Smith's Pilots have only one win in the tournament and that was against UT San Antonio, making its only playoff appearance ever.
Well not that its a big deal but they have wins over Oregon St and Washington St on 2011 and 2012. I really think last years team overachieved. Frisbie, Johnson and Dees carried the team. Cruz came on a little at the end. I'm starting to wonder about Smith myself
The big Portland questions for 2013: Can a Garrett Smith team ever again win even two games in the tournament? And when they do lose, will Smith ever say his Pilots lost to a better team?
I thought this would be the place to post this observation as my daughter is a 2013 high school grad. My daughter started playing soccer at 7 years old, and is now a freshman at a large Midwest school. When she first got involved I was happy as soccer was the game I grew up with (no I was not born in the USA), and when she was little I dreamed of some day playing alongside her. As she and her club team improved and developed the idea of playing at the collegiate level became a thought, and we pursued it. Before the end of her Junior year, although she had interest from quite a few mid major D1, D2 and D3 schools she decided that it was not for her. I was at first upset, because I thought she had potential to be a good collegiate player, but have since accepted that she just does not want to be tied to the game during her college years, but still enjoys it. After being in school for about a month, it is amazing the number of girls that she has run into that played at a relatively high level that are not playing in college. She has sent me pictures of her at varsity soccer games with her soccer playing friends, and she's met a lot of girls and has a common interest with them through soccer. The point I am making is this. We as a soccer playing nation are exceeding, and maybe at a far greater rate than any other country a love for the game. There will be a lot of little kids in 10-15 years whose mothers were involved in the game and had and have an interest. A much higher percentage than any other soccer playing country I'm sure. She can go out and play as an adult at a high level of recreational play when she is in her 20's, 30's, and probably 40's if she stays relatively fit, and she will be able to pass her love of the game on to her children. I think a lot of us miss the point of the game. We get caught up in I don't think many of us get our children into the game at a young age with the idea that they'll play in college. Maybe I'm wrong. But I do think that quite a few of us hope they have a life long appreciation and love of the game. Of all my friends, most have some appreciation for the game, but very few can play, but for the next generation not only will more have an appreciation, but will also be able to understand it more. Oh, and we got to play together in a summer tournament before school started. What a thrill.
What does the U-20 roster announced yesterday (December 23) tell us about college recruiting in 2012 and 2013? Traditionally, the vast majority of the U-20 USA team is composed of freshmen and sophomores in college (plus a few juniors), so heavy representation should bode well for the future of these college teams. If one can assume that the vetting of players by Michelle French and her staff was reasonably thorough (she said that it was a tough decision to cull the best 20 from the 45 evaluated) and that the 20 players selected do indeed reasonably represent the best that the USA can muster for the U-20 World Cup qualifiers, then we can look at how the various colleges did in their recruiting in the last two years. Stanford has 5 players on the U-20 team. 4 are are currently on their roster and the fifth, Andi Sullivan, is currently in high school but is slated to join the Cardinal next season. That means that Stanford players are 25% of the U-20 team. There is no question that the recruiting pipeline from the youth national teams to Palo Alto has been validated by this check-in mid-way through the college careers of most players. Stanford is clearly the recruiting juggernaut in recent years (and looking forward, this trend is continuing.) Next in line is Notre Dame with three players on the U-20 squad. The Irish may have stumbled a bit in their introduction to the ACC last season, but there is little question that they will soon be near the top of the league. Randy has recruited a slew of good players to go with his three U-20 standouts. UCLA and Penn State each have two players on the team. While Kate Rowland is part of that dominating junior class of UCLA stars, they still obviously have younger talent too. Penn State's freshman Brittany Bassinger and sophomore Mallory Webber bode well for Nitanny Lion strength going forward. One players each from Virginia, Boston College, Florida, UConn, Harvard, Wisconsin, and UNC.... Yes UNC will have less than two players on the U-20 squad for the first time... This fact supports the opinions of those who maintain that there has developed real competition and an upper level parity in recruiting in the last 5 years or so and that the Tarheels' long history of domination may indeed be over. (Only the future will tell.....)
good analysis. not having followed the recruiting process closely, and only going by online references to their recruiting strength, i thought that ucla would have more of these top u20 players. or maybe a better way to say it is that this is just michelle french's "comment" on the college recruiting process. who has the most u23s. maybe ucla shows up better there.
Perhaps this means the 2012 and 2013 UCLA recruiting classes were not as strong as we thought, yet Amanda Cromwell made the most of the situation and wasn't given enough credit.
Another view would be that since the 2011 UCLA class (presently juniors) is SO dominant, that even comparatively strong classes in 2012 and 2013 just didn't have the opportunity to shine given that most of the oxygen (playing time) was being sucked up by the juniors. (7 juniors started in the NCAAs this year.) In two years when this 2011 juggernaut class will no longer be at UCLA, I think that we will see the Bruins yet in the mix near the top as the present frosh and sophomores will show quite well. And why is that? Because..... Well, umm....let's put that 2011 class into perspective. 7 from this class started at the college cup final four. A key sub off the bench is another junior Rosie White who has multiple caps on the full (senior) national team for New Zealand. Also from the 2011 class is Courtney Proctor and Kylie McCarthy. Proctor was a high school All-American and the youngest player on the U-17 national team 4 years ago and McCarthy traveled with the U-17s and was both a NSCAA and PARADE All-American. So there you have 10 from the 2011 class who would start on almost anyone's team, and if you then add in senior Jenna Richmond who was the consensus #1 recruit in 2009 (and has started for the U17s, U20s, and now the U23s) and it can be rationally argued that UCLA doesn't need to start ANY sophomores or freshmen! BUT those frosh and sophomores are strong enough that three of them start and one more (Kaskie) gets lots of playing time (and is on the U20s this year!) And.... In addition to these four freshmen and sophomores already putting pressure on the juniors, there are three other underclassmen with national team and All-American accolades on the bench waiting their turn. Plus... lined up in the incoming 2014 and 2015 classes there are 6 players with national youth team experience including three youth All-Americans. No, I don't think that Amanda Cromwell is too worried about talent for the foreseeable future!
Chances are that (much like the Brazilian men's national team) the USA could field three U 20 teams that would be highly competitive on the world stage. There is no doubt that some version of 'politics' plays a part in who is selected, who the coach is familiar with, who's judgment the coach trusts when discussing players she maybe hasn't seen so much.
I was reading through this string and was thinking of how to write my response to the direction this thread was going. England66 summed it up very well. I'd like to add that almost all female players will end their careers before they fully develop which would include those playing through college. By 22-23 players haven't typically reached their peak, but national players are typically locked in at a younger than that and the pool shrinks by a huge percentage after that.
In a sport that has minimal economic prospects for players, it's hard to imagine a better alternative.
I agree with your general comment, however speaking from a 'local' perspective I would say that, as far as younger players go, broadening the net would be a start...I find it quite amazing that in the latest USA U 17 women's squad (24 players) there is not a single player from North Texas....this despite the fact that N.TX teams are very competitive at all age groups nationally...as an example there is a young woman (Soph at a local high school, plays top level ECNL) who NEVER gets so much as a look in at the national team level...this despite being one of the most gifted female players I've ever seen....and I've seen her a lot...I'm her high school coach.
I have coached girls since the late 80's. It is very hard to be objective about your own players and the process of selecting players is extremely subjective and (for the lack of a better word) political. I have seen a lot of very talented kids get overlooked and have seen some questionable (at least in my opinion) players get accolades. I have never been a chest thumper, and have never put any of my players on a pedestal or pushed an agenda to get them notoriety. I have had players go on and play in college. I have known some parents and coaches that do lobby hard, and they get results because of it. But I can also say the vast vast majority of players and parents have been good people. The process is what it is though, and those that do get to the top have worked very hard to get there. I just hope that those that love the game, regardless of their skill level, have the opportunity to play for as long as they wish. I know that on the men's side their are a lot of opportunities for amateur play. I hope that also develops for the women.
That was great perspective. Using the word "politics" has a very negative connotation though (esp. these days). I prefer to use "eye of the beholder" and also realizing that it is a team game and so you don't usually have 10 playmaking center-mids that are 5-feet tall make any given team (but certainly have a few). There's often a player with crazy pace or that 'gets stuck in' well or wins lots of high balls that gets selected for a team over a clearly more overall skilled player. Soccer frustrates lots of people (parents) that way because it's not like track or swimming where you just look at the times and you know who's better. (Do track and swim parents and fans complain as much? about their HS or the Olympic team selections? I actually don't know but it must be different). So - good point that the pool of "quality players" is always bigger than those selected and so using these rosters as an indication of quality recruiting is a bit subjective and relies heavily on the judgment and experience of the staff doing the selections....but still very fun to talk about! So - how many USYNT players did Final-4 Va Tech start or have on their roster? AND - please name me a coach that thinks UNC will be an easier out then in previous years because they only have 1 U-20 rostered player. And I thought Texas was starting it's own National Team and I think would do well in women's World Cups.
Article from NY Times on the early recruiting process with quotes from Rory Dames, Anson Dorrance and Steve Swanson: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/27/s...html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes&_r=1
HELLOOO MODERATOR....... This page needs to be allowed to slide down into history....... The 2014 and 2015 pages are now a lot more interesting and heating up.
Soccerhunter, I was hoping you would do a post-mortem on your 2013 class rankings. I think it would be interesting to see how well the ratings panned out based on freshman performances. You could use the TopDrawer Freshman Top 100 as a replacement for the TopDrawer IMG Top 150.
Here's how they stacked up last year according to TopDrawer. 2013 TDS Final Rankings (Top 100) -March 2013 1 (1) Morgan Andrews = Stars Mass/Midfielder/Notre Dame 2 (2) Gabrielle Miranda =Colorado Rush Midfielder /UCLA 3 (3) Anna McClung =Eclipse Select (IL) Forward/Florida State 4 (8) Jane Campbell =Concorde Fire SC Goalkeeper \Stanford 5 (4) Stephanie Amack = Mustang S\Defender/Stanford 6 (5) Madeline Bauer =Slammers FC Defender Stanford 7 (6) Amber Munerlyn =So Cal Blues Forward North Carolina 8 (7) Lauren Kaskie =Heat FC Midfielder UCLA 9 (9) Miranda Freeman = Orlando City Defender USC 10 (10) Antoinette Payne = Concorde Fire SC Midfielder Duke 11 (11) Joanna Boyles =CASL Midfielder North Carolina 12 (14) Carissa Miller = Sereno SC Goalkeeper Florida State 13 (15) Emily Bruder =Utah Avalanche Forward North Carolina 14 (13) Kristen Killion = TSC Hurricane Forward Oklahoma State 15 (16) Alexis Shaffer =CASL Midfielder Virginia 16 (17) Zoey Goralski = Team Chicago Midfielder UCLA 17 (18) Brittany Basinger = FC Virginia Defender Penn State 18 (19) Hayley Dowd FC Stars of Massachusetts Forward Boston College 19 (30) Allison Wetherington Concorde Fire SC Midfielder Portland 20 (20) Lauren Berman Scorpions SC Forward Maryland 21 (21) Margaret Purce Freestate SA Forward Harvard 22 (12) Gabrielle Seiler Concorde Fire SC Midfielder Georgia 23 (22) Morgan Stanton Colorado Rush Midfielder Santa Clara 24 (23) Elizabeth Raben Colorado Rush Defender Duke 25 (24) Arielle Ship Real So Cal Forward California 26 (25) Kayla Mills Slammers FC Forward USC 27 (27) Elizabeth Keester TSC Hurricane Forward Texas A&M 28 (26) Morgan Stearns McLean Youth Soccer Goalkeeper Virginia 29 (35) Rachel Conners Real So Cal Midfielder San Diego 30 (28) Sandra Yu Cleveland FC Midfielder Notre Dame 31 (29) Ryan Walker Mustang SC Forward Stanford 32 (33) Amanda Rooney Albertson SC Midfielder North Carolina 33 (31) Danica Evans Colorado Rush Forward Portland 34 (32) Darian Jenkins Sparta United (UT) Forward UCLA 35 (34) Micaela Powers Ohio Galaxies FC Defender Wisconsin 36 (36) Lindsey Lane Freestate SA Midfielder South Carolina 37 (37) Rebecca Schoales Crossfire Premier SC Defender Washington 38 (38) Zoe Swift Team Chicago Forward Kentucky 39 (39) Savannah JordanConcorde Fire SC Forward Florida 40 (40) Marlo Sweatman McLean Youth Soccer Forward Florida State 41 (41) Sophie Groff Dallas Texans Forward South Carolina 42 (42) Jenna Romano Team Chicago Defender Wake Forest 43 (43) Elizabeth Boon Vancouver United SA Forward Portland 44 (44) Mariana Galvin Santa Clara Sporting Forward Santa Clara 45 (45) Olivia Liebman Lonestar SC Goalkeeper Vanderbilt 46 (46) Morgan Proffitt Carmel United Soccer Club Midfielder Marquette 47 (47) Allison Stucky Cleveland FC Illinois 48 (48) Marion Crowder Mississippi Fire Forward Georgia 49 (49) Angela Waddle Eclipse Select (IL) Midfielder Vanderbilt 50 (50) Jenny Chiu El Paso, TX 51 (51) Madison Tiernan PDA Midfielder Rutgers 52 (52) Natalie Calhoun Dallas Sting Defender Oklahoma State 53 (53) Meghan MacDonald PDA Defender Boston College 54 (54) Sarah Teegarden Slammers FC Midfielder Wake Forest 55 (55) Claire Wagner CASL Defender Clemson 56 (56) Brittain Dearden PDA Defender BYU 57 (60) Jaclyn DiMartino Albertson SC Midfielder Boston College 58 (59) Auburn Mercer Charlotte Soccer Academy Defender Alabama 59 (58) Gabby Byorth OP Eagles Defender Clemson 60 (61) Madison Hall Colorado Rush Midfielder Portland 61 (62) Joanna Robertson Challenge SC Midfielder Oklahoma State 62 (64) Elizabeth Bartels Toro SC Forward Marquette 63 (57) Jessica Kjellstrom Michigan Hawks Midfielder Michigan State 64 (68) Lindsay Agnew OP Eagles Forward Ohio State 65 (85) Malinda Allen Concorde Fire SC Defender Duke 66 (65) Havana McElvaine Colorado Rush Midfielder Washington 67 (66) Jasmine Hart Dallas Texans Forward Texas 68 (67) Kylie Schwarz Minnesota Thunder Academy Defender Wisconsin 69 (69) Meagan McCullough Dallas Sting Midfielder Texas Tech 70 (70) Cameron Castleberry CASL Midfielder North Carolina 71 (71) Rose Lavelle Cincinnati United Premier Midfielder Wisconsin 72 (72) Taylor Schissler Eclipse Select (IL) Midfielder Ohio State 73 (63) Maddy Crabtree Dallas Sting Forward Texas Tech 74 (73) Katie Martin Dallas Sting Forward Villanova 75 (74) Vanessa Kovar Virginia SA Midfielder South Carolina 76 (113) Krystina Iordanou Albertson SC Defender Vanderbilt 77 (90) Jill Maloney Gwinnett Soccer Association Goalkeeper Georgia 78 (75) Ariel Kupritz Brentwood SC Forward Miami (FL) 79 (76) Ashley York D'Feeters Midfielder Baylor 80 (77) Salina Williford PDA Midfielder Penn State 81 (78) Anna Soccorsi PDA Defender Michigan 82 (79) Victoria Manfredonia San Diego Surf Forward Texas 83 (80) Gianna Dal Pozzo Team Chicago Midfielder Miami (FL) 84 Maggie Bill Albertson SC Forward North Carolina 85 (81) Jordan Jesolva So Cal Blues Midfielder Santa Clara 86 (82) Alex Anthony Real Colorado Forward Maryland 87 (83) Julia Dyche Dallas Texans Midfielder Texas 88 (84) Erin O'Malley FC DELCO Midfielder Dayton 89 (86) Bryce Banuelos Team Chicago Midfielder West Virginia 90 (88) Claire Wheatley Solar Chelsea SC Goalkeeper Illinois 91 (89) Nicole Driesse PDA Midfielder Florida State 92 (87) Alyssa Herwatt Mustang SC Defender Colorado 93 (91) Ashton Hierholzer Dallas Texans Goalkeeper Oklahoma State 94 (92) Kendall McKnight Dallas Sting Midfielder Oklahoma State 95 (93) Annie Alvarado So Cal Blues Midfielder UCLA 96 (94) Emily Johnson Santa Cruz County Goalkeeper Santa Clara 97 (95) Erika Leal San Diego Surf Midfielder San Diego State 98 (96) Kendal Robino Penn Fusion Midfielder Wake Forest 99 (98) Brooke Ramsier Solar Chelsea SC Midfielder Auburn 100 (99) Haley Roberson Virginia SA Defender Auburn
Here is a link to the postseason TopDrawer Top 100 Freshmen as of 12/20/13: http://www.topdrawersoccer.com/college-soccer/college-national-freshmen-top-100/women/2013 It seems quite different that the preseason list above.