China starts to "Get It"

but my shrink says those drugs are helping!...at least the ones he gave me

 

The reality is the US couldn't protect Taiwan from China if China decided to invade. China has one of the largest air forces in the world and the largest army in the world. At best the US could force a stalemate.

Crowdie

 

Ask the Spanish Armada what happens if an invasion doesn't have naval superiority.

The Iraq war has been hideous, absolutely disastrous for our national security. We'll see North Korea, Pakistan, anyone who wants to take liberties with the United States has a golden opportunity. Except China with Taiwan. Thankfully, AQ doesn't have a navy.

If China wants to turn Taiwan into glowing slag, of course, they can - then the US will return the favor. If Hong Kong had been in Taiwan's position, we would have been screwed. But the Straits of Formosa settle the question. China's invasion would merely end up colonizing Davy Jones' locker.

I actually think that the United States would be within its rights, duties, and obligations to defend Taiwan from invasion. Fortunately, the question won't arise. China may *threaten* to invade, but they will be bluffing or suicidal.

 

That's true, but their air force wasn't anything to write home about either.

 

You have never been in the navy have you? Naval ships are at biggest risk to air attack. An organised air force can destroy a naval fleet easily without air support. The US navy knows this so would been extremely reluctant to place their vessels at risk anywhere near Chinese soil.

Completely different situation. Against the Chinese you would be fighting a uniformed military force. In Iraq you are fighting an urban guerilla war and that is why you are struggling.

Neither the US or China would use nuclear weapons as it doesn't serve either country's purpose. China believes that Taiwan is part of its territory so they don't want to destroy the province. The US is the self appointed "defender of the free world" and the use of nuclear weapons in this area would kill millions of "free world" citizens.

I take it you believe that it is unpatriotic to critize the President as well. Sending your country to war is not something you do easily. Going to war with China would cost so many US lives that the Iraq war would seem like a training man exercise. The US military knows this and the Chinese have the same problem. This is a political problem and political problems should be solved by diplomats not the military.

Crowdie

 

(1) Yeah, I'd never criticize the President. George W. Bush, on the other hand....

(2) I take it for granted that our air force could beat their air force. If China can establish air superiority against us anywhere in the world, then our military has gone downhill.

(3) Dude, I agree. This can't be solved militarily, because it's a stalemate. Since right now, the stalemate isn't really hurting anyone, I don't see it as a problem. If Taiwan insisted on declaring independence, though, I don't see China succeeding in forcing their hand militarily. They couldn't cross the water in 1950, and they won't today.

 

If I understand this thing correctly, I would say Chinese would never never give up Taiwan. I think they have been preparing to see this day - to retake Taiwan through whatever means that works.

Taiwan currently is controlled by a politcal party that has no relationship with the mainland, which they want to secede from it.

 

You're talking out of your ass here, Loney. For better or for worse, the war in Iraq has demonstrated that the current Administration is ready, willing, and able to use its military might. According to the article on page 1 of this thread, China is re-thinking some parts of its Tawain strategy because of what it perceives as an increase in US willingness to oppose it. Our enemies (and Pakistan really isn't one of them) are less likely to try something now than ever before.

 

I agree completely. The US is a counterweight in the region to nationalist ideology. It conveniently allows China and Taiwan to focus on making money.

 

stopper, you read it wrong.

If anything suggests that China is re-thinking some parts of Taiwan strategis, that would be more Bush'esque - namely, more aggressive, militant, unilateral.

Thanks for the Bush example.

 

It's an interesting hypothetical:

If the US govt. acted militarily against China to defend Taiwan, the question of Congressional declaration comes into play. Congress would not approve without public support, and I believe the public would be vocally marching in the streets against use of force. And if the Admin acted without Congress, the public would definitely be in the streets if for no other reason than the first economic depression of the 21st century would be beginning.

The US cannot act against China, and China will not act against Taiwan unless extreme nationalists fancying empire come to power in Beijing.

 

Get hooked on phonics and read a newspaper. Our military might is totally bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Remember Afghanistan? That's okay. No one else does, either.

Without the nuclear threat, South Korea would be screwed right now. Taiwan, though, is guarded by the Navy. They're fine.

 

The PRC's huge army doesn't mean anything because they could never land a soldier on Taiwanese soil. And while they may have the largest air force in the world on paper, their equipment is horrificly maintained (by some estimates only 25% of PLAAF aircraft are operational at any given time), and their pilots are very poorly trained (only about a dozen flight hours a month). Their technology is somewhat impressive (a little more than a generation behind top-of-the-line US technology and equivalent to Taiwanese), but the PLAAF is probably at a slight disadvantage even against the Taiwanese Air Force--let alone US air power.

 

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/global-deployments.htm

16 of 31 active combat brigades deployed. 6 of 37 Reserve/National Guard brigades deployed.

'Totally' bogged down?

 

Alex, once the Europeans relax their weaponry sanctions against China, that gap will quickly shrink.

Currently Russians get most of the Chinese dollars for weapons. Europe wants a slice of that apple pie too.

Military power grows along with economic power. That's the reason USA is the #1 power in the whole world - money talks.

USA and China should be friends, not enemy. And they won't be friends unless China grows to a comparable size to USA on all counts.

 

half of the active combat brigade are all ready deployed... so that leaves only 15 more to deal with China.

 

How is the US going to block the Taiwan Strait? The Strait is only 131 miles wide at it's shortest point and 180 miles wide at it widest. Any vessel sailing up the Taiwan Strait is open to attack. Aircraft have to land somewhere and US aircraft would be targets for SAMs anywhere near Chinese soil.



From a military point of view the Taiwan Strait is a nightmare.

Crowdie

 

Verybdog, it doesn't matter how good their technology is (as a matter of fact what they have right now is very advanced)--what matters is that their equipment, while technologically advanced, is very poorly maintained and their people are not properly trained to use it.

Crowdie, what the hell are you talking about? I don't think you'd see US surface ships in the Taiwan Strait--but submarines, passing undetected to Chinese sonar, would have unlimited free shots at any Chinese amphibious troop carriers. As for the aircraft, they could be Navy or Marine Corps jets based on aircraft carriers located hundreds of miles from China (remember that during Operation Enduring Freedom, carrier-based US attack jets launched missions in Afghanistan despite having to fly all the way across Pakistan and back to do so--that is the beauty of in-flight refueling), or they could be Air Force assets based in Japan. You realize that China doesn't even currently have the amphibious capabilities to land hundreds of thousands of troops on Taiwanese soil even with no air or naval resistance, do you not? Not only would they have to develop that, they'd have to develop a blue-water navy capable of protecting the troop carriers, and a well-trained and well-equipped Air Force capable of projecting power across the Strait. They'd then have to send these assets into battle against US and Taiwanese air power, surface ships, and submarines; the US is the most powerful nation in the world in each of these areas, and Taiwan is no pushover either (probably top 10). Then, even if they did manage to land troops on Taiwanese soil, they'd have to deal with the Taiwanese Army, which is no pushover, continued US/Taiwanese air superiority, and most likely 22 million or however many civilians live on the island shooting at them as well. Oh yeah, thanks to US satellite technology, we'd know they're coming well in advance. Still like Beijing's chances?

 

Don't lie to yourself, Alex.

For example, if you have never used those old SLR manual cameras, maybe you need some technical trainings - focus, speed, and aperture, etc.

Now you are holding a $1300 automatic digital "point and shoot" camera, how much training do you need to use it?

Same idea to these high tech weapons.

 

Um...I think I'll just point out that you are not even the slightest bit, even remotely acquainted with a clue what you're talking about, and leave it at that.

 

I'm not saying you are right or wrong about this. I certainly don't know. How are we so certain that China's military is so poorly trained? Do we have guys and girls on the ground there going around conducting inspections? Espionage obviously is one route to finding out juicy secrets, but even that can have its limitations in a country like China.

So how do we know? Any links or heads up on other information that answers this question would be greatly appreciated.

 

I guess I must have dreamed all those headlines this week about the Pentagon issuing stop loss orders to every man, woman, child and dog ever to have worn the uniform.