With Juve bowing out in the UEFA Cup and Hamburg and Wolfsburg staying in, and Inter and Bayern Munich in the Champions League, it's starting to look more and more like Germany will be claiming Italy's fourth Champions League spot in the near future. Sad times.
I'm not sure of the exact math, you can find it on the UEFA Rankings Coefficients page on wikipedia, but I'm not that great with stats. Also, Inter gets paired with CSKA Moscow, and Bayern Munich gets paired with Manchester United. If these ties play out as expected, it will only help. Fulham draws Wolfsburg and Hamburg draws Standard Liege. Interesting draw for Germany in the UEFA Cup.
I have been told by a fellow Serie A fan that Inter's progression into the quarterfinals of the Champions League has ensured that the 4th Champions League spot will belong to Italy for at least one more year, no matter how far the German sides progress. I have been unable to verify this through actual credible news sources, I will post here if I do.
Nothing changes until the 2011/2012 season, so Italy will have a 4th Champions League spot next season. However as of right now, starting with the 2011/2012 season then Germany will have an extra Champions League position. I'm not sure of the exact math, but I don't think Inter passing the next round will be sufficient for us to retain the 4th place. Going by the current points on Wikipedia, Italy will has 47.553 points and Germany has 51.437 points.
This actually makes much more sense than what my friend told me. We only have Inter left in Europe, while Germany has Bayern Munich, Wolfsburg, and Hamburg. Plus, if Wolfsburg and Hamburg both win their quarterfinal match in the UEFA Cup, they will play each other in the semifinals, guaranteeing that a German side will make the final.
I can see Italy losing in the CL, chances are you're facing very good clubs and with so many factors, it's easy to be knocked out...but what drives me nuts is the Italian teams that don't take the UEFA Cup/Europa league seriously. Advancing is more money for the club. But more importantly, where's the pride? The pride of not being embarrassed, winning at every avenue possible, etc. I still think this league has best depth in Europe. Mourinho isn't shy about ripping Italy, but he agrees with me. Yet, year after year now... Maybe a situation like this would be a wake-up call...I doubt it...
I don't feel like doing math but I found this on the wiki page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_coefficients#League_coefficient
Inter is playing CSKA Moscow. They're a good team, they wouldn't be in the quarterfinals of the Champions League if they weren't, but they're probably the easiest of the seven teams Inter could have drawn.
So basicaly it's come down this, Inter needs to defeat Bayern Munich within 90 minutes in the Champions League final in order for Italy to retain the 4th Champions League spot.
There was a German having a wank in the UEFA forum at half time...too bad the post was deleted....pretty amusing.
One thing I realized is that even if Inter defeats Bayern Munich it only puts this off for one season. Going into the next season Italy will lose a season where they did incredibly well in Europe and will be very much at risk of being surpassed by Germany. So it means that next season we need to push high in both European competitions. They should really be pushing this, with clubs, fans, and media.
As it stands now Germany have 53.770 points before next season and Italy has 48.695. So next season Italian teams will have to do 5 points better then Germany to keep the fourth spot for the 2011-12 season. That's not happened since 2003 when Italy had two teams in the Champions League final.
What happens this season effects next season. If Inter don't win the final in regulation, the fourth team in the 2010/11 season won't get CL.
No it doesn't work like that. They can't have it without a year of separation. If Inter lose to Bayern Munich or if they win on penalties, then Germany will have 4 CL spots starting from the 2011/12 season. There is a gap to allow teams to prepare, if it changed from year to year it would just be a huge burden on teams. They could find themselves in and out of CL on a whim without a chance to prepare. Look it up if you don't believe me, but Inter and Bayern are playing for the 4th CL spot starting from the 2011/12 season. Next year with the average being what it is, we risk losing the spot again and if it happens then it would take effect from 2012/13. http://european-football.suite101.com/article.cfm/inter-bayern-match-decides-uefa-starting-spots