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Discussion in 'New England Revolution' started by Revs Fan Forever, Aug 27, 2002.
Can we win 4 out of our last 5 games?
Yeah, sure, why not? Much like the Red Sox, the Revs are really good at breaking their fans' hearts by pretending to be good and then crapping out. I don't see why this can't happen in the playoffs instead of the regular season, especially considering the fact that it's almost harder to miss the playoffs in MLS than it is to make them.
Yeah, but no one's heart will be broken if the Revs lose in the play-offs, because no one thinks that they are good enough to get there. A loss in the playoffs would be palatable. If they're setting us up for a crushing disappointment, it'll be in the regular season most definitely.
It is not strictly necessary that they win 4 out of 5, although that would help.
I put together an Excel spreadsheet to run the scenarios, and if the Revs get 11 pts (3 wins, 2 draws), they would have about an 70% of making the playoffs. If they win 4 and lose 1, they have a 95% chance of making it.
They can actually make the playoffs with 33 points (2 wins, 2 draws and a loss), although nearly all of the other 16 games remaining would have to come right.
With purely randomized results for all remaining games, and assuming the Revs lose all tiebreakers (since they've already lost the tiebreakers to KC and the Metros, the 2 teams they have the best chance of catching), they make the playoffs in 13% of the time.
A win tonight would roughly double their chances. A loss would leave them with a 25 to 1 shot.
If they somehow become the first team in the league to win 3 in a row, they would be almost 50/50 to make it.
thanks for the numbers, i like our chances. Lets see if they can get something going between Twellman and Harris and the mid. Harris has Griffiths as his partner (new Jamican brothers) and Twellman has Ralston. Lets Go Revs!
Here are the numbers from my spreadsheet for Saturday:
As of right now, the Revs make the playoffs in 24% of the possible outcomes. On average the successful scenarios involved them finishing at 36 pts.
If the Revs lose Saturday, their success rate drops to 11%, slightly worse than on Wednesday afternoon.
If they tie, they are at 19%.
If they win, they are 44%.
This weekend will go a lot farther towards firming the numbers because there will be 5 of the 20 games remaining on the league schedule.
Even if the Revs win all three of their final matches they will need losses from other teams to qualify.
KC has to lose one of its final two.
Columbus, Chicago and the Mutts all have to lose two and Colorado can't win another match.
The Mutts have four matches left, one against the Revs. So should they lose one on the run up to the season finale the Revs can control their own destiny.
My hope is that it all comes down to the final day of the season and the Rev--Mutt match is a winner take all for the last playoff spot. I really don't care about the Cup or how we would do in the playoffs but to beat the hated MUTTS on the last day of the season for the last slot--at home--could make the season for me. You see as a Rev fan I don't ask for much
I share the same dream, Soccer Doc.
I think we can do it the revs are a good goal scoring team. If we play hard defensivly and not let any goals in which had been our problem lately than we can win. W/ twellman and ralston a lot can happen. Don't doubt the revs they may not make it to playoffs but they wont give up
This weekend's results mostly didn't help. I now have the Revs making the playoffs in 14% of the scenarios.
If the Metros draw against Dallas (that's still on for tomorrow right?), it doesn't really change our prospects. They win, we're down to a 15 to 1 shot. If they lose, we're back up to 1 in 5.