The World's Worst World Cup Qualifying System is done, with surprisingly few casualties. Well done there. And it's been about 3 and 1/2 years since 2010 and we know the qualifiers from the CAF. Hint; they're the same as 2010 minus SA. So now that that's out of the way we can make way for the speculation and possibilities. The draw is the next big event on Dec. 6, 2013. African teams will be in Pot 3 with the remaining South American teams and France. There is a World Cup Draw Simulator that lets ppl create scenarios. And there are a number of articles already being written about the chances of CAF teams at the World Cup. A surprising amount of optimism concerning my other home nation of Nigeria. I don't exactly share it and feel that Ghana remains the continents best chance at a deep run, though not the only one for sure. Articles: Africa's World Cup Challenge, Lee Wellings- Al Jazeera World Cup 2014: African qualifiers to draw on experience, BBC Sport Africa Hopes High For Improved World Cup Showing, Soccerly 52 Teams, 152 games, 365 goals: How Nigeria, CIV, Cameroon, Ghana & Algeria got to Brazil 2014, Kent Mensah -Goal Déjà vu amid African drama, African Football Media So that's what's being written so far. Altogether I feel good in seeing Africa's representation becoming more consistent in recent years. Repeat qualifiers help the quality of the top sides in adjusting their tactics and gaining confidence in their abilities as a team. This sucks for the teams that aren't qualifying but African success at the World Cup stage will allow FIFA to feel justified in expanding the size of tournament without the predictable dustcloud of bitching that would follow such a move now. So my most optimistic hopes are for three teams in the knockout phase and a semifinalist. That would go a long way in dispelling the knee jerk reaction that resulted from the 2010 edition. World Cup is now just months away. Here's hoping for a positive year for CAF Football.
I'll reserve judgement until I see the draw But: 1. The African sides will have either a CONCACAF or AFC side, so in most cases the African team should be favorites and they will definitely fancy their chances. 2. They have a 50% chance of a top European team from the UEFA pool (Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, England) and a slightly below 50% chance of getting a top Pot 1 team (Brasil, Argentina, Germany, Spain) That means a 25% chance of ending up in a Group of Death type group and 75% chance of being in a manageable group. Statistically speaking that means 1-2 African teams will end up in a potential group of death, while 3 other teams will be in mostly tough, but manageable, groups. Statistically speaking the World Cup also should have 2 heavy-laden Groups of Death, hopefully only one of them with an African side.
After being dissapointed in the last 2 world cups, I have decided to set my expectations low. Africa football has regressed with the possible exception of Ghana. The results bare it. Germany used to have a torrid time with African teams. In 1978 and again in 1982 they failed against lowly ranked African opposition. Yet of late they seem to be having an easy time against African teams. Besides Algeria beating Germany, there were some memorable upsets by African teams. Tunisia 3 Mexico 1 (1978) Morocco 3 Portugal 1 (1986) Cameroun 1 Argie 0 (1990) Nigeria 3 Spain 2 (1994) And many others. The last time an African team really staged a an upset was Senegal vs France in 2002 Part of the problem IMO is that African teams are trying to play the European style. They will find it difficult to beat Europe at their own game.
Well... what about Cameroon beating Brasil 1:0 in 2003 at the Confed Cup? And Ghana beating Czech Rep. in 2006 had to be considered an major upset as at that time Czech Rep. was ranked 3rd in the world by FIFA and they were considered a team that was supposed to compete for the title. Also the manner in which Ghana beat Czech Rep. - total and utter domination - was noteworthy. Cameroon, Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco, Senegal have all regressed. Agreed. Nigeria however seems to finally be turning a corner. And I agree with your assessment that they were overly attempting to Europeanize their football (vide Nigeria's downfall to mediocrity). I think however the biggest dissapointment of the 00s was not Cote d'Ivoire, but Cameroon of 2002. They had the squad, the players, the ability, but let the never-say-die Irish draw against them... And you can't say Cote d'Ivoire has regressed... they were nowhere on the world map before 2006. All in all I do have to agree: Back in the 90s even if the African sides failed to progress they often played exciting football and it was a shame that they went out.
This is absolutely true and I think why Ghana in particular has been so successful. They never fully integrated into a purely European style. They play fast and attacking football which is evidenced by the fact that they're the highest scorers in qualifying. They know that they're not going to win at overly conservative defensive style of football. Nigeria's loss to Denmark set off a panic in Africa which resulted in the horrible and inconsistent decade that followed. New sides like Senegal and later Ghana seem to have stuck to their guns and never were affected by this. Older sides like Cameroon and Nigeria and even CIV seemed to overly conform to this doctrine of football. South American teams never won World Cups trying to play like Europeans. Even Asian teams like Japan and Korea are really after trying to model their own style to accentuate their technical efficiency. This wasn't helped by the fact that African footballers were largely being developed in Europe. Look no further than John Mikel Obi for an example of an African player who's game was drastically changed from playing in England. This was especially drastic as more Nigerian players were going to the EPL earlier rather than Ligue 1. I feel that Ligue 1 doesn't try to change African players as much as the EPL does, possibly bc of the influence that the African flair has had in French football itself. But this year it seems that complaints from fans about the lack of playmakers has been heard and the teams are generally opening up a bit more and putting together more chances if not goals. Hopefully there is improvement. Hopefully the draws are favorable as well. Africa needs a good World Cup to build their confidence. Also African FAs have finally wisened up and stopped going for big last-minute hires before the tournament for teams that had already qualified based off of a disappointing African Cup performance. In fact, moving the AfCoNs away from the WC year is a massive bonus as it did nothing other than create knee-jerk reactions and never was anything like helpful as a couple of well-scheduled friendlies might be. One last possible positive is that this will be the first World Cup played on Latin American soil since the expansion of the World Cup. Africa's top sides have more or less solidified and we have no more neophytes to break in or teams coming off a missed tournament. Europe tends to do poorly in Latin America and they make up the bulk of the field, opening the way for teams from the developing football world to shoulder their way into the knockouts hopefully. African teams won't have a home advantage for a long time since South Africa will likely have to wait their turn to host again and until one of the emerging large economies on the continent like Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia or one of the North African countries can get their acts in line to be worthy hosts, we may all be waiting for South Africa's turn to come around again in 20 years or so. So Africa may as well just consider a Latin American WC to be the next best thing to a possible opening for an emergent WC performance. Three teams to the knockouts alone would be enough to dispel the dismal regression of the aughts. Any team making the semis would be absolutely enormous especially without the benefit of a home advantage or it taking place in the infancy of the tournament. So for this reason I'm cautiously optimistic. CAF is better than they've shown and I think deep down ppl understand this. There's simply too much talent for them to continue to under-develop at this tournament. Everyone's getting better and the world is leveling out slowly but surely.
I was referring to the World cup not the Confed cup which while important, is not always taken seriously by teams like Brazil. With regard to FIFA ranking, I do not put too much weight in those rankings. They are not a true reflection of how strong a team is. I mean do you really believe that the Czechs were the 3rd best team in the world in 2006 ? CIV has not regressed but they havent accomplished anything at world level. Of all the African teams at the 2010 WC, CIV was the worst culprit when it comes to trying to play a European style. In my view, thats why they were unable to pull off any upsets. To beat the like of Netherlands, an African team must play to its strengths and play unorthodox , unexpected football like Senegal did in 2002. Trying to beat Europe by playing structured football is futile.
No, but they were like Belgium in 2014. Expected to do great, but failed to do anything. Opened however with an emphatic win over USA and topping a group with 9 pts at the Euro 2004 featuring Germany and Netherlands. Entering the tournament Czech Rep. was widely held as one of the top European sides.
Ghana have their own distinct style, but in 2006 and 2010 Ghana was structurally very strong and solid with a very good shape to their gameplay. Sort of a mix of Italian organisation and African flair. Appiah has opened up Ghana's game to make it more attacking oriented. I was already scared of the 2010 World Cup before it started. Cameroon was in shambles and rife with infighting. Nigeria and Cote d'Ivoire decided to introduce last minute coaches from Europe who did their best to stifle the African teams. Algeria come in with a 'let's not disgrace ourselves attitude'. Only Ghana came in without any major issues and behold... they performed the best. Its already looking good and stable so far. Cote d'Ivoire is some cause of concern given the players seem to be coaching the coach. Also hard to say if Finke will really manage to reel in all the Cameroon egos. But still... nothing like in 2010.
Forget the title of the article for a moment, the last paragraph nails exactly what I've been saying for awhile now... http://www.kickoff.com/news/39101/west-africa-dominating-the-continent-at-world-cups It overgeneralizes a bit. Ghana is an Anglophone country that happens to base several of their players in Freance. As did Nigeria during their last golden generation. But bottom line, France suits African players much better than England. At least for the early parts of their careers.
Don't fully understand the Igesund comment. He's a white South African with an almost 20 year history of experience of coaching local club sides. I for one like the direction Igesund is heading with this side.
On Cameroon: If anyone watches the French league there are many good signs for Cameroon coming from them. Jean II Makoun is having a spectacular resurgence of form this season (as evidenced in the Tunisia game) and is easily amongst the top midfielders in France. Meanwhile Vincent Aboubakar is really showing that he is a good striker, now has 7 goals. The team is doing terrible and when he lacks support he dissappears, but whenever he is supplied ammuniton he is a potent threat for Lorient. There is also Nicholas Nkoulou, who is slowly getting back his mojo after a dire period in form. Henri Bedimo is terrorizing on the left flank for Lyon. Several other players are doing fine, if unremarkably, like Landry N'guemo and Kana Biyik.
Africa teams have regressed since the 90s however their tactics have changed with the more talented African footballers playing in Europe and European managers becoming the managers of African teams they have become more conservative and have tried to emulate and play a European style. CIV and Cameron and Nigeria fit that model.
Just to look at the draws: Because Africa's pot will hold 2 CONMEBOL nations it's interesting to observe the pots. That basically means that at 3 African nations are destined to be in a group with a CONMEBOL team (3/4 from Brasil, Argentina, Uruguay, Colombia), while 2 nations will be in a UEFA group (Switzerland, Germany, Belgium, Spain). That means that at least one African nation is set to be in a tough group led by either Argentina or Brasil. In remains to be seen whether FIFA will use a 9 team UEFA pot or drop the lowest ranked UEFA team (France) to the same pot as Africa. The second solution woyld be preferable, as France are potential powerhouses (depending on which team appears). African sides will want to avoid Portugal, Netherlands, Italy and England (although this English side looks plenty beatable, so maybe time to break the jinx?), while Greece, Bosnia, Russia and Croatia will be welcome alternatives. In pot 4 all teams are beatable for African sides, although some teams will be preferred to others (Costa Rica, Honduras, Iran and Australia over South Korea, USA, Mexico and Japan). Apart from Japan none of the teams has looked threatening of late. Statistically speaking 1 African team should end up in a group of death, but the likelihood of 2 such groups is very high. However there almost identical stats for groups of life (1 African team in a manageable group + high likelihood of a 2nd such group). All in all we should end up with 1 African team in a GoD, 1 African team in a GoL, 2 African teams in a group with a dominant team and 1 African team in a relatively even group.
Just want Ivory Coast on an easy group, they deserve it, after Argentina/Netherlands; Brazil/Portugal
There are 4 teams in Pot 1 that any CAF team would want to avoid and 4 teams in 4th Pot that could have been seeded. There's a good chance of getting drawn with both from those two pots and, along with a strong team from Pot 2 could result in an almost unprecedentedly difficult Group of Death which has no weak teams. This is partly because of the strange draw that saw the Swiss of all teams as well as first time in a long time qualifiers Belgium and Columbia get seeded. Now it can be said that FIFA might like doing things this way to shake things up for the knockouts. Who knows. The draw will be very interesting...
Agreed, but unfortunately CIV has really regressed, they are an aging side, and I feel they may not even qualify from an average group.
Teams will want to avoid from each of the pots Argentina Brazil Spain Germany Italy Holland Portugal England Japan Mexico USA S Korea These will be favourable draws from each pot Colombia Uruguay Belgium Switzerland Russia Greece Bosnia Croatia Costa Rica Honduras Australia Iran
I don't think they regressed. They can't focus on Drogba anymore, but they have a pretty young frontline alternative with Bony, Doumbia, Traore. They have Serey Die, a superb defensive midfield with the capacity to be the world's best and there is a bit of a generational change with Serge Aurier (best RB in France), Bobley Anderson, Jean Daniel Akpa-Akpro. Plus Gervinho and Yaya Toure are on the top of their game.
Just found this online: LEGENDARY! OKOCHA THE KING! I am just so mad with the waste of talent that was the 2002 World Cup (with the last minute dumping of Amodu).
Quick analysis: GROUP A: Brasil Croatia Mexico Cameroon Brasil is unpassable, but Cameroon will fancy their chances against Croatia and Mexico. They might not be favorites, but I wouldn't count them out. GROUP B: Colombia Greece Cote d'Ivoire Japan Finally an easier group. Colombia will be especially tough, but Cote d'Ivoire should be favorites to leave the group. Japan can't be counted out, but Greece - I can't see them doing anything. GROUP C: Argentina Bosnia Iran Nigeria Another Argentina rematch. Nigeria should exit the group. GROUP D: Germany Portugal Ghana USA Worst draw for an African team. Ghana will have to shock at least one of the favorites + traditionally dispose of USA. Doable, but a very tall order. GROUP E: Belgium Algeria Russia South Korea Easy group, but Algeria will struggle nonetheless. At least with this draw Algeria exiting the group is feasible.
Some more notes: GROUP A: Cameroon play Brasil last, so they will have to beat Mexico (opener) and Croatia. I think Cameroon should beat Croatia, as the game is in Manuas (30+ degrees and 90% humidity - like home). Mexico will be the key game. GROUP C: Ivory Coast's progress will be decided in the first game. If they beat Japan I can't see them not progressing. Whether or not they beat Colombia will be irrelevant. Japan and Greece games are played in Recife and Fortaleza (again 30+ degrees and 80-90% humidity). GROUP F: Nigeria meet Argentina in the last round, so hopefully it will be a reltively meaningless game for first place. They first play Iran, where Nigeria will be favorite. With Europeans historically poor, Bosnia should be Nigeria's to lose (especially with the game in Cuiaba - 30+ degress and 60-70% humidity) GROUP G: The only positive thing is that the climate could be beneficial to Ghana. The first game vs USA is in Natal, the second vs Germany is in Fortaleza (30+ degrees and 80%+ humidity). Portugal will be the last game. If Germany and Portugal lose points in general this will be Ghana's group to take. But they have to beat USA to have a good headstart. A single draw vs Portugal or Germany could be enough to progress. GROUP H: Algeria play all their games down south. They start with Belgium, then South Korea and Russia. Honestly don't know how Algeria will do. European teams do poorly outside of Europe and Belgium and Russia would be good bets to perform poorly.
ROTFL. Taken from the US forum: "Ghana: They are not as good as in 2008, their defense will be vulnerble (as will ours) but their midfield and forwards have the potential to be lethal. They start slow, and we start well. Plus, we can't lose to Ghana three straight wold cups, can we?" Ghana has a much deeper, more experienced and better squad than in 2010. Yet the Americans say the above... utterly clueless.
The US is vastly improved. And there is a point in sports that it's often hard to beat any solid team three times in a row. But Ghana is far improved to 2008 themselves. On that I agree completely. But it's not surprising since noone seems to pay enough attention to African football to rate them accurately. Still I hope both teams go thru somehow. Sorry Germany, hope you guys lose. I think this World Cup might see African teams surprise alot of people. The draws are favorable outside of Group G and African sides aren't in they type of disarray that they're typically in due to the self-inflicted last minute coaching changes for little reason. I see a good matchup. The US has much to prove as does Ghana. Ghana and Uruguay played a match to a standstill yet the way that they're respectively percieved is light-years apart. Ghana's a bit underrated and Uruguay is a bit overrated. But that's how things go. I can't wait until the WC. All the speculation is meaningless until then.