I'm absolutely shocked that the Big Ten Digital Network is showing a blue screen with a clock on it rather than the Minnesota/Illinois game. Full Tournament coverage this year!
Ha! Wish I could say I was surprised. Good start for your Gophers, Bob. Two early Uhl goals, the first on a PK after an Illini red card. Illinois gets back in it on an Aliina Weykamp goal, and it's 2-1 at half. We'll see if Illinois can come all the way back down a player...that will be tough.
Well, Penn State nearly swept those awards, with Kopmeyer the only non-Nittany Lion to win. http://www.bigten.org/sports/w-soccer/spec-rel/103112aaa.html
I think that's the 6th blown 2-goal lead this year. Usually off midfield turnovers...not that I've seen it before.
Quite a comeback to force overtime, down 2-0 and a player down for 80 minutes. But Gophers would get wind if it goes to 2nd OT. All four goals with wind this morning.
Illinois wins in PKs. Figured this one was over once Thyken went down, Uhl has been the goalscorer this year but Thyken has been the most important player as they have no depth behind her at midfield. Hopefully the NCAA rewards the Gophers for finishing 4th in the Big Ten and playing a very tough non-conference slate, but Minnesota tends to get overlooked by the committee when in this position.
Bob, it will be sweaty palms time for the Gophers. They've only got one win over a team that will be in the field for sure in Wisconsin. So many near misses this season...if they get just one of those one-goal losses reversed, they'd be in for sure. I'm also not sure about Illinois, as this will be a tie officially. It doesn't hurt them to be sure, but it doesn't help a lot either.
Actually, you're right. Stole that from the Minnesota twitter feed without thinking too much about it. Good call.
Minnesota has never made it when they've been on the bubble, so not getting my hopes up. The theme this season has been "almost," so it would be fitting. Congrats to Illinois on moving through. On the bright side, no more "Big Ten Student U" for the rest of the season. I swear I wasn't that stupid in college, who are these guys?
Immediately following the game, Illinois was #48 and Minnesota #49 in the Adjusted RPI rankings. Wow, that system must be perfect to get two teams that just went to PKs with adjacent rankings! Minnesota has its win over Wisconsin @ #35 in the ARPI. Illinois has its wins over Ohio State @ #16 and Michigan @ #21. But, Illinois has more games to play, so its own ARPI ranking may move. Nevertheless, at this point both are looking like bubble teams. Illinois' two wins look good and Minnesota's one win looks pretty meager.
Wow, my first prediction was right. Game 1 Minnesota vs Illinois - Illinois 3-2. I didn't predict OT however... How could I have missed that! This will likely be the last exact prediction.
Almost. The official score is 2-2. But, if your 3-2 was based on your thinking PKs and then assigning the 3 to Illinois in recognition of that, then you got it exactly right.
Penn State beat Iowa 2-0 to advance to the semis. They'll play Illinois on Friday morning. Ohio State-Nebraska up next. By the way, did anyone watch the Penn State game? Stats skewed pretty heavily in Iowa's favor (shots 33-15, SOG 14-4, corners 9-5). Just curious about the flow of the game, possession, etc. McNulty made 14 saves to keep the clean sheet.
The other thing I noticed from Gametracker of the Penn State/Iowa is that a number of starters only played about half a match. It would seem that if Iowa was pressing that much, the starters would play more minutes. Does anyone that watched the match have any insight?
Ohio State beat Nebraska 1-0 in the third game yesterday, while Michigan defeated Wisconsin 2-0 in the nightcap. Tomorrow's semifinals: 9am central: #5 Illinois vs. #1 Penn State 12pm central: #2 Ohio State vs. #3 Michigan
I caught the Michigan game on streaming and didn't rely on the Big Ten Network. Back and forth a lot in the first half vs. Wisconsin even though Michigan could have had two goals, but one wide and one hit the bar. Wisconsin had opportunities, but just not quite. But could tell it was Michigan taking control in the second half. After two goals, Michigan loaded their defense and it was done. So, for NCAA, it would look like Penn State, OSU and Michigan for sure. Illinois and Wisconsin, then Minnesota really seem like the next bets, but will the NCAA take more Big Ten teams?
Last year it was Penn State, OSU and Illinois. Is the Big Ten conference strong enough for more this year?
The Big Ten is in a better spot with RPI this season, and that's always the factor that at least gets you in the conversation. Right now, four should be safely in (Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin). Illinois and Minnesota are on the bubble, with the Illini having a slightly better case with wins over Ohio State and Michigan. The Gophers best win (and only one over a likely NCAA tourney team) is against Wisconsin.
BMoline: With Illinois moving on in the Big Ten Tournament, will this help redeem themselves from the loss to Wisconsin and potentially move ahead to take the 4th spot? Wisconsin's big RPI booster was their early win against Notre Dame in the preseason, for sure.
Hmm, I'm afraid I can't give you much moral support from the Massey Ratings or an Elo-rating viewpoint. Minnesota 1725* (rank 36) Wisconsin 1715 (rank 38) Illinois 1675 (rank 41) Iowa 1650 (rank 47) * crude conversion into Albyn Jones rating scale; games only through last weekend Also looking at their wins (Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois) - not terribly impressive in that regard either. Very bubble-ish records.
And Wisconsin is pretty close to bubble territory itself, although as of this moment I'd say it's in the protected area.
I'll defer to cpthomas and Chris Henderson from All White Kit if they disagree, but as of now Illinois is still behind Wisconsin in the NCAA pecking order. That might change with a win over Penn State tomorrow. Don't look at it as an either/or. The committee doesn't care how many teams get in from a particular conference. Their job is to get the top 64 teams in the field based on the criteria they are told to use (RPI, results against RPI top 40, head-to-head, etc.). I'd say Wisconsin is almost assuredly in the field, with Illinois squarely on the bubble. A win tomorrow, or maybe even a tie (game goes to PK's) would probably be enough to get them in, depending on what else happens with automatic bids.
I think you're right. In fact, right now Illinois is well behind Wisconsin. Wisconsin so far looks safe, and Illinois looks like a bubble team, maybe in the bottom half of the bubble. At the moment, it wouldn't surprise me if they both get in, but all the results aren't in yet.