Another pro/rel thread yayz!

Discussion in 'MLS: Commissioner - You be The Don' started by Black Tide, Apr 13, 2012.

  1. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    Because at current, the second/third division players don't make enough to pay dues. Also because they'd never agree to it--the way those players would look at it, being as replaceable as they are, the only thing being in a union would change for them is that it would block their use as replacement players if there was ever an MLS strike.

    That is all contingent stuff, though. It's momentary reality.

    Though the 65th market, El Paso, TX, possibly could. You're talking about a market that is 80% as big as Salt Lake City (48th), but it's like 80% Latino. Also, no major pro franchises and less college competition than SLC.

    As I said before, pro/rel adds entertainment value. And we're in the entertainment business.

    MLS has been very successful as a start-up. . . and I certainly wouldn't go back and try to implement promotion and relegation in the 90s if I had a time machine to do so. MLS probably wouldn't be here today if I did that.

    But the point I'm making is that this risk-averse logic gets weaker as time goes by tell, because the implication out there of major systemic thread is a victim to the very success you've described. Many businesses (probably the vast majority of them, actually) find that significant changes to the business model make sense as they grow. (In fact, once you scale most businesses to a certain point, they pretty much have to throw their original business model, the one that went well enough to scale in the first place, out the window. This is completely normal.)

    (College drafting is often used as an example of this phenomenon. In theory, what it mostly gives you is 'second-rate talent, but for free' development-wise. That was a great thing for a league just trying to get off the ground and survive. But both the league and its teams have slowly but surely decided that this logic is only going to get so far before they reach a growth point whereby far more investment for somewhat better output becomes worth it.)
     
  2. Achowat

    Achowat Member+

    Mar 21, 2011
    Revere, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    True words. The real goal of every US Soccer fan should be "enough teams to make pro/rel an option". And part of that needs to be sustained (and sustainable) growth of non-MLS soccer. I just don't know how to do it, yet.

    Then what's the point of pro/rel? If we're writing off Akron and Billoxi and Pasadena and Boise, if we're saying they can never support a D1 team, then why allow them in MLS at all?
     
  3. Achowat

    Achowat Member+

    Mar 21, 2011
    Revere, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    "Scab players" is something I had never considered, and you're between 80 and 100% correct. Contention withdrawn

    If El Paso can support a 3rd Division team, then how come the Patriots, a team for 23 years, are mired in D4, despite their SSS and all of the benefits they have. How come less than 1,000 make it out to game day?

    That's probably true, probably far more than most on my side would like to admit. Entertainment can be best measured (in this scenario) as a function of the number of games that "matter". The Revs (a relegated team last year, by far) had, IIRC, 4 or 5 games after they had been "eliminated" from playoff contention. In the stronger West, Vancouver probably had as many as 7 "dead rubber matches". The question then comes up, "How many more games would 'matter' in an 18-team, 10 playoff, 3-up 3-down system then if it was simply 10 playoff teams?" I think you'll find the answer far closer to 10 then 20.

    I agree, wholeheartedly. I just don't see the economies of scale making sense for pro/rel within our lifetimes.

    And this is where the conversation breaks down. Even DCU1996, hell even SoccerReform.us doesn't advocate pro/rel now. The pro/rel argument seems to be tied to a self-defeating argument "Pro/rel would create more sustainable teams" but should only be implemented "when we have enough sustainable teams." I'm not building strawmen, simply repeating what has been said in other threads.

    The No/rel faction will always say "this system works now, so why mess with it" where the pro/rel crowd is fond of repeating "of course not now, but it might work in the future". They're not mutually-exclusive arguments, but if I'm given the choice of which side of the line to stand on, I'm always going to chose the provably-sustainable present to the potentially-benefitial future. I can say, with a fair amount of certainty, that MLS can grow to 24 high quality teams under the current paradigm. I agree that the promotion advocates claim more ambitious goals, but MLS has proven (to me, at the very least) that slow, measured growth can be a success.
     
  4. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How about pro/rel America style.


    Team with the lowest gate revenues gets demoted to NASL, the team with the greatest gate Revenue in NASL gets promoted to MLS but must share 50% of that gate revenue with the other MLS owners (the demoted team can keep 100% of their gate revenue).

    Now all NASL teams must go thru a review process like they do in J-league where only wealthy owners are allowed to apply (say 50-100 million in assets), also only cities with a desirable TV market and lots of available Fortune 500 companies where thy can pull sponsorships from.
     
  5. HailtotheKing

    HailtotheKing Member+

    San Antonio FC
    United States
    Dec 1, 2008
    TEXAS
    Club:
    San Antonio Scorpions FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I know many, many Blackburn fans that don't find things very entertaining right now especially considering how dire things could be in another 12 months if they don't manage an immediate rebound.
     
    Jasonma repped this.
  6. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Just because Akron, Billoxi, Pasadena, and Boise can't support a D1 team it does not mean that MLS can not turn a profit in those cities. Pro/rel gives MLS the ability to expand into cities that it couldn't expand into as a D1 only league while still maintaining the claim that they are still one league.
     
  7. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It is entertaining to the other fans that make fun of Blackburn fans, I think DC United going to NASL would be funny as shit.
     
  8. Achowat

    Achowat Member+

    Mar 21, 2011
    Revere, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If they can't support a D1 team, that means that they would fail, if promoted. What benefit could there be of setting a member-club up to fail, just for the 'entertainment value' it might bring?
     
  9. HailtotheKing

    HailtotheKing Member+

    San Antonio FC
    United States
    Dec 1, 2008
    TEXAS
    Club:
    San Antonio Scorpions FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't like Blackburn at all, in fact kind of despise them a bit ... but there's nothing remotely entertaining about a club being in the situation they are in.

    Sure I poke a little fun, but you could insert just about any team not named Arsenal from the EPL and I'd poke a little fun. That's not the same thing as entertainment and certainly isn't what was being implied about it.
     
    Jasonma repped this.
  10. Potowmack

    Potowmack Member+

    Apr 2, 2010
    Washington, DC
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Maybe MLS can make money off of those smaller D2 markets. But, would the potential gains offset the potential losses of seeing Toronto FC and Philadelphia (the two current last-place teams by points) relegated in favor of Akron and Boise? A big part of MLS' future growth revolves around expanding the revenue from its TV deals. That could be jeapordized if NBC sports (or ESPN or whatever) was worried that a bad season would lead to it losing big TV markets in favor of smaller ones.
     
  11. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Oh, but it is, and I say it as a fan of a Mexican D2 team that is closer to going to D3 than going to D1.
     
  12. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That list includes me. It gets worse with that letter that was leaked this morning. What a f-ing disaster.
     
  13. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    It's true that in most pro/rel systems, one team usually knows its going down pretty early on. Even there, you haven't lost anything. TFC's games are meaningless right now. If there were pro/rel, and things continued as they were, it would take another month or two.

    Here's where some appropriate cynicism comes into play: those fans who would tell you they didn't find it entertaining. . . they were actually on the edge of their seat. And the ones who really felt kicked in the gut. . . they'll come back for more of it next year. Heartbreak is a crucial feature of sports fandom. If it weren't, the Red Sox would never have survived long enough to actually win. The contrast here is between the heartbreak of going down. . . and the boredom of finishing 25th in a 30 team league without it.

    I've gotten past the Catch-22 of judging by number of already existing teams. (Second divisions that can't promote are inherently weaker products than ones that can, other things being equal.) A mature league can be spotted quite easily another way: by how much they pay the players.

    That's how you can tell MLS is currently not a mature league, player costs are not the dominant cost of running a franchise. Mature leagues spend 50 or 60 percent of their income on players. (This tends to be true in a general sense both in 'free markets' and in CBA-negotiated leagues. For all that contentious bargaining, the owners usually end up saving only a few percentage points.) MLS? Probably 25-50%, depending on the team. (In theory, the cap would fix the figure at 30% of ticket sales, considering that's what goes out to MLHQ and what comes back is player contracts, but it gets a little more complicated because the National TV deal goes into it, but other sources of revenue like shirt sponsorhips or local TV deals don't). MLS teams' 'logistical expenses'--travel, advertising, sales, etc--are still a bigger piece of the pie, because MLS is still an 'infant industry' in the jargon.

    If it were, then the reduction in revenue that comes with relegation comes with a more or less automatic reduction in expenses that buffers the fall. Not to say they don't still lose (there are winners and losers implied in any conceivable economic change; any time MLS expands, for instance, the share of the national TV deal is diluted, and yet they still sometimes choose to do it), but they lose less than you'd think, and not so much that the benefits might not outweigh it, if the league gets to cover more markets and yet have more teams playing for something for a greater proportion of the season, and in contention for winning something more seasons.

    Also, if MLS were 'mature' in this way, it would be paying out six-figure salaries to even less-used players, and each team would likely have several seven-figure guys. It would look more like the salary structure of the NHL. And beneath that, you could still have a league whose salary structure looked like MLS's did in 1996, only without the Valderrama-types (just spitballing, a wage scale that went from 30k-175k or so)--except for the relative handful of teams that feel like they're close to putting an MLS core together, who would spend closer to MLS wages. Which is a vastly better product than the second division is today, without it being confused for the first division.

    Will MLS get to that point? I tend to think so, whether that's because the owners decide on their own that they need to be internationally competitive to get to the next level, or because the league grows enough to where the players are less replaceable than they are now, and they 'win' a CBA negotiation. How long will it take? Hard to say, but I don't think a lifetime.
     
  14. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Depends. What do you mean by "fail"? If you mean that it goes bankrupt and closes up shop, then there isn't an advantage. However, if you mean they get their ass handed to them for a season or two and then drop back down to a lower level, then the entertainment value is a benefit.
     
  15. Achowat

    Achowat Member+

    Mar 21, 2011
    Revere, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I mean fiscally. The pro/rel experiment should be considered a failure is a 20-team D1 and a 20-team D2 makes less money than a 40-team league would
     
  16. bunge

    bunge BigSoccer Supporter

    Oct 24, 2000
    Another nod in the direction of expansion. While on their own the original 8 teams couldn't necessarily have survived, a rising tide lifts all boats.
     
  17. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Nope, I was resigned to relegation by the holidays.

    Probably, but that doesn't mean that I wouldn't enjoy EPL play more than I'll enjoy Championship play next year.
     
  18. HailtotheKing

    HailtotheKing Member+

    San Antonio FC
    United States
    Dec 1, 2008
    TEXAS
    Club:
    San Antonio Scorpions FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't think there's anything appropriate about pretending to know how those people feel. "Those fans" ... the ones that I know weren't on the edge of their seat at all. They were slumped back in the coach watching in disgust as the team didn't even appear to try to gain the result. They were angered, hurt, and down right depressed at what was coming. The only time they were excited at all was at kickoff only because they knew the consequences of a loss. They weren't entertained at anything regarding the match/situation. They were simply hoping against hope that they wouldn't have to face the very real death nail to their club. Those consequences have been made even more real with the letter that was leaked that Jasonma alluded too.

    If you're truly categorizing that as entertainment in the same sense as fighting in the playoffs for a championship .... that's ignorant at best, and I feel sorry for you as a person. These Blackburn fans aren't amused or pleased by anything that is going on right now.
     
  19. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    NFL has done very well for itself without a LA team and with a Green Bay team. :) The only thing MLS has to worry about is whether or not the nationwide ratings drop. If the ratings remain the same, then NBC Sports or ESPN or whatever aren't really going to care that there isn't a Toronto or Philadelphia in the league. Additionally, is the drop in MLS's revenue any greater than what is already happening in Toronto? Thanks to the six seasons of suck in Toronto they are already on the verge of seeing a steep drop off in revenue in a pro/rel league, they'd drop to a lower division where they could get a few winning seasons under their belt and while there would be a drop-off, the theory is that the drop-off wouldn't be as precipitous and that the drop-off in Toronto would be countered by an increase in revenue at the promoted city.
     
  20. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Except there wouldn't be a 40 team D1 league. If that were possible, then the NFL would already be there.
     
  21. Achowat

    Achowat Member+

    Mar 21, 2011
    Revere, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The NFL makes a significantly smaller percentage of their revenue from ticket sales than MLS. Right now, the NFL stands to make more money fielding fewer teams than expanding to 40
     
  22. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    I don't think they are entertainment in the 'same sense.' But you're still making my main point here.
     
  23. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    But there's a very good reason that all the leagues got to 30-32 and stopped. That reason is the bell curve. The vast majority of teams in any given year are 'clumped in the middle', and aren't contending for anything. The bigger a league gets, the more teams are clumped there, and the longer they tend to stay.

    Playoffs helps this, by drawing a line arbitrarily somewhere in that clump, so that more teams stay in the races longer, but eventually expanding both the league and the playoffs, you reach a point where making the playoffs still leaves you far, far away from the 'big stage', especially if you also want a playoff system that the fans don't regard as a random outcome.
     
  24. Achowat

    Achowat Member+

    Mar 21, 2011
    Revere, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Are there any examples of playoffs that the average American feels are "illegitimate"?
     
  25. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And if MLS ever wants to get to the point where it has 30 teams, it had better be making a crap load more money from TV contracts than it is now. Particularly if it wants to continue to improve the quality of the players on the field. All of your arguments seem to be completely confined to the state of the league right now and very little to nothing to do with where MLS would need to be to implement pro/rel, or even continue along its current path.
     

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