For each club the 2013-2014 Champions League Group Stage, I calculated the absolute value of the difference between their pot for the draw and their rank in their group. I also calculate the absolute value of the difference between what their pot for the draw would have been if the coefficients went back only three seasons and their rank in their group. Based on actual pot, the sum of the absolute values was 22 and the correlation between pot and Group Stage rank was 0.6. Based on what the pots for the draw would have been if the coefficients went back only three seasons, the sum of the absolute values was 18 and the correlation between pot and Group Stage rank was 0.7. By both of these measures, Group Stage performance was closer to what a person would expect from the three season coefficients than from the five season coefficients. I'm going to do more Champions Leagues and post results later.